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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 17, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -5
Hi all,
I'm a long time reader, but rarely do i post on these forums. With that said, I was a little bit surprised that there wasn't an individual thread about the Red Sox number 7 pick. Granted, he isn't signed yet and it's entirely possible that the Red Sox can pass on him and use the pick next year. Still, I was wondering about the general feeling the board has about the highest pick the Red Sox have had since 1993. If the scouting reports are accurate, it's hard to not get excited about an 18 year old lefty who can throw 95-96 and has the potential for 3 plus pitches. If the Red Sox do sign him, do they go the Casey Kelly route and let him audition for an OF spot or do they stick him at SP and that's it?
Edit: They had a pick this high in 1993 and selected Trot Nixon. Only twice they have picked this high (also in 1967 where they drafted Mike Garman 3rd overall).
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 12:25:54 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ball could throw 95-96 right now, I'd be a lot more excited about the pick. I think Ball too much "projection" and too little "now" for 7 overall. If he signs under slot and the sox get some of the later signability guys in the fold, I'll like the pick a little better...
As for the OF thing, I don't think you'll see Ball in the OF unless he flames out as a pitcher, or you show up to watch batting practice at one of the affiliates...
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Post by mainesox on Jun 17, 2013 12:45:11 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ball could throw 95-96 right now, I'd be a lot more excited about the pick. I think Ball too much "projection" and too little "now" for 7 overall. If he signs under slot and the sox get some of the later signability guys in the fold, I'll like the pick a little better... As for the OF thing, I don't think you'll see Ball in the OF unless he flames out as a pitcher, or you show up to watch batting practice at one of the affiliates... Basically any high school player is going to be more projection than current talent, so unless you wanted them to stick strictly to college players, that's just part of the game. Second, there were multiple reports of him hitting 95, and Baseball Prospectus had him up to 96, so he can throw 95-96 right now. Personally, while he wasn't my first, or second choice, I actually love the pick. A big, tall, athletic lefty who already shows good command for his age and experience, repeats his delivery well despite being so tall, and has three potentially plus pitches? Sign me up.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 17, 2013 12:53:51 GMT -5
I like the pick but am concerned if he really is anything more then what Andrew Miller is right now. I think his being picked at 7 is more a reflection of the quality of this draft then it is of Ball.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 17, 2013 12:58:30 GMT -5
Andrew Miller was aslo considered a highly regarded prospect across the league at one point. If Ball has the same potential that Miller had then you have to make that pick every single time. Of course, the worry is that he does become Andrew Miller.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 17, 2013 13:01:14 GMT -5
I had my heart set on Frazier, so naturally I was a little disappointed with this pick.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 13:02:17 GMT -5
Honestly, If I could sign up for Trey Ball turning into A.M. circa 2006, I'd take it...Miller was traded for Miguel Cabrera, lest we forget! (Which is I guess what rsf is syaing above, lol)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 17, 2013 13:18:00 GMT -5
When I read the OP's post(Good idea, don't be afraid to share your thoughts.)I was going to sarcastically say that we've already written him off. But, I see that I was beaten to the punch. Cept I don't think a couple of guys are sarcastic.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 13:33:02 GMT -5
When I read the OP's post(Good idea, don't be afraid to share your thoughts.)I was going to sarcastically say that we've already written him off. But, I see that I was beaten to the punch. Cept I don't think a couple of guys are sarcastic. Greg, I don;t think anyone is writing him off (I'm not at least)...But, I'm not a fan of the HS pitching demographic due to it's inherent riskiness. (also, like others I wanted Frazier badly, if not him, another bat)... So, I wasn't a huge fan of the Ball pick personally, and it seems there are at least a few others who feel simarly...Of course, that said, I would LOVE for him to reach his potential Right after the draft, I was pretty critical of the Ball pick, and some of it may have been the disappointment that pretty much every player I wanted at the 7 spot had been taken 1-6, lol... But, some of it was the lack of track record this ORG has with HS players, pitchers especially..
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Post by planb on Jun 17, 2013 13:52:06 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ball could throw 95-96 right now, I'd be a lot more excited about the pick. I think Ball too much "projection" and too little "now" for 7 overall. If he signs under slot and the sox get some of the later signability guys in the fold, I'll like the pick a little better... Very few players drafted are "now" prospects. HS players, given that they are 17 or 18, are going to be drafted based on ability and projection. For me, a HS lefty throwing 93+ as reports have indicated, is definitely an exciting addition to the minor league system. It is surprising to me that so many posters seem down on the selection given that they want the Sox to draft high upside prospects and not the lower ceiling college prospects that they have selected in recent years.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 13:59:39 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ball could throw 95-96 right now, I'd be a lot more excited about the pick. I think Ball too much "projection" and too little "now" for 7 overall. If he signs under slot and the sox get some of the later signability guys in the fold, I'll like the pick a little better... Very few players drafted are "now" prospects. HS players, given that they are 17 or 18, are going to be drafted based on ability and projection. For me, a HS lefty throwing 93+ as reports have indicated, is definitely an exciting addition to the minor league system. It is surprising to me that so many posters seem down on the selection given that they want the Sox to draft high upside prospects and not the lower ceiling college prospects that they have selected in recent years. I understand the point about all HS players projectabiliy vs present...I guess what I was trying to say is I feel Ball requires a little more projection than I would've liked at pick 1-7...Maybe it's a factor of this particular draft, maybe it's unrealistic expectations...But, when I read what people are posting about Ball (throws 95-96 etc) it doesn't jive with the scouting reports I've read...I really wanted a bat at that pick, leading all the way up to the draft, I was thinking I would have been disappointed if they took Shipley (or even Stewart to a degree)...But, I would have prefered either of them to Ball... But, honestly, I'm completely willing to admit, I know nothing and I don't take my POV too seriously, lol
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 17, 2013 14:00:23 GMT -5
I was very happy to see the Red Sox draft Trey Ball who has the talent and athleticism to be the next Clayton Kershaw. He was the top rated LHP in the draft. He is exactly the type of player I was hoping the Red Sox would draft with the 7th pick in the first round.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 17, 2013 14:07:06 GMT -5
When I read the OP's post(Good idea, don't be afraid to share your thoughts.)I was going to sarcastically say that we've already written him off. But, I see that I was beaten to the punch. Cept I don't think a couple of guys are sarcastic. Greg, I don;t think anyone is writing him off (I'm not at least)...But, I'm not a fan of the HS pitching demographic due to it's inherent riskiness. (also, like others I wanted Frazier badly, if not him, another bat)... So, I wasn't a huge fan of the Ball pick personally, and it seems there are at least a few others who feel simarly...Of course, that said, I would LOVE for him to reach his potential Right after the draft, I was pretty critical of the Ball pick, and some of it may have been the disappointment that pretty much every player I wanted at the 7 spot had been taken 1-6, lol... But, some of it was the lack of track record this ORG has with HS players, pitchers especially.. I think you're way too hung up on how hard he's throwing. Strasburg got in shape and threw much harder in college, so did our own Roger Clemens. Read this scouting report if you're worried about him only topping out at 91-93. More HS pitchers seem to be making it. Like a Jarrod Parker or Madison Baumgartner. And, this guy. mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491152&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 14:12:53 GMT -5
Greg, I don;t think anyone is writing him off (I'm not at least)...But, I'm not a fan of the HS pitching demographic due to it's inherent riskiness. (also, like others I wanted Frazier badly, if not him, another bat)... So, I wasn't a huge fan of the Ball pick personally, and it seems there are at least a few others who feel simarly...Of course, that said, I would LOVE for him to reach his potential Right after the draft, I was pretty critical of the Ball pick, and some of it may have been the disappointment that pretty much every player I wanted at the 7 spot had been taken 1-6, lol... But, some of it was the lack of track record this ORG has with HS players, pitchers especially.. I think you're way too hung up on how hard he's throwing. Strasburg got in shape and threw much harder in college, so did our own Roger Clemens. Read this scouting report if you're worried about him only topping out at 91-93. More HS pitchers seem to be making it. Like a Jarrod Parker or Madison Baumgartner. And, this guy. mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491152&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=laGreg, it's not the velocity, it's just that he seems pretty "raw" to be drafted 7 overall...Well that and the fact that I believe Ryan Pressley's 30 innings (for Minnisota)are the most for HS pitcher drafted and developed by the Sox in the past 7 drafts...
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 17, 2013 14:19:38 GMT -5
Greg, it's not the velocity, it's just that he seems pretty "raw" to be drafted 7 overall...Well that and the fact that I believe Ryan Pressley's 30 innings (for Minnisota)are the most for HS pitcher drafted and developed by the Sox in the past 7 drafts... The Red Sox were never in position to draft the best high school pitching prospect in the draft. You can throw any comparisions to every former Sox pick out the window. And, that includes Casey Kelly. He wasn't the best HS prospect in his draft.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 14:23:27 GMT -5
"The Red Sox were never in position to draft the best high school pitching prospect in the draft."
I didn't know the Sox drafted Kohl Stewert! Awesome...Oh sorry, I meant Phil Bickford....Lol...I'm just messin with ya...My point being, I don't think Ball was the conses best HS in the draft...
Anyway, I think I'm coming across as tha anti-Ball guy...And really I'm just like you guys, dreaming he's the next Cole Hammels or Kershaw, lol...
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 17, 2013 14:31:18 GMT -5
I wouldn't say that just because they have failed in the past with HS picks that they should just give up on it entirely. If the organization felt Ball can be the next Clayton Kershaw, then they should take him. Even if they have failed 10, 20, 30 times.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 17, 2013 14:31:33 GMT -5
Greg, it's not the velocity, it's just that he seems pretty "raw" to be drafted 7 overall...Well that and the fact that I believe Ryan Pressley's 30 innings (for Minnisota) are the most for HS pitcher drafted and developed by the Sox in the past 7 drafts... That's a pretty small window, if you consider a HS pitcher is 17-18 when drafted, you are not going to expect much from any of them for at least 4 years, if not 5. So take out the last 4-5 drafts (Which feature some very intriguing HS arms I might add), and that leaves you with the 06-08 drafts, which were overloaded with position players and college arms. Casey Kelly, Brock Huntzinger, and Caleb Clay were really the only guys drafted in that time frame, that high. Kelly was a hit, and was used to acquire upper echelon talent, Huntzinger looks like he could be emerging as a nice bullpen piece (admittedly not a homerun pick by any means) and Clay certainly didn't work out. Let's give these guys a chance to develop and have this discussion in 3 or 4 years, if Pressley is still the best of the bunch by then, Ill be happy to eat my words.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 14:44:27 GMT -5
Guys, again..I don't want to be known as the "Anti-Ball" guy...
But, let me atleast back up my pessemism...Granted, the sample for HS pitchers drafted high by the sox is admittedly small...But, what have we been hearing for years other than the sox themsleves view that catagory as "risky"...Maybe Ben doesn't share Theo's view on that...Maybe Ball really is that rare HS arm that fulfils all the promise and expectations...But the road to Kershaw, Hamels or even Lester is littered with a whole lot of wreckage...I was hoping for more of sure bet at number 7...Of course I know there is no such thing, and maybe (most likely, really) the guys I prefered will amount to nothing...But, Ball seems like a real risk to me that high...If Ball fell out of the first do to signability, he surely is someone I would've wanted the Sox to draft and make a real run at signing...My trepidation comes with the opportunity drafting that high...As I said before, I'm probably being un-realistic and obtuse...Anyway, just wanted to clarify my POV as I think it was getting distorted...
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 14:51:57 GMT -5
"That's a pretty small window"
Well of course, I chose that number to make a point at the expense of having to include Michael Bowden's innings...We could go back 10 years if you like..
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 17, 2013 14:56:03 GMT -5
Who would you have drafted instead?
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Post by azblue on Jun 17, 2013 15:02:45 GMT -5
There are probably three lefty starters in the majors who average over 93 mph (there was a story a couple of weeks ago regarding this, but I do not remember the source). Please, get back into reality.
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Post by wickedlester on Jun 17, 2013 15:04:12 GMT -5
Who would you have drafted instead? Klos- I would phrase it as who would I have prefered- because I freely admit to not being any kind of an expert..I really just form my opinions from what I read... But I wanted in the following order: Bryant (no chance) Grey (ditto) Frazier (still hurts, lol) Appel (no chance) Moran Stewart I really thought one of these guys would be there at 7...Once they were all gone, I was really hoping for D.Smith, Peterson or Meadows at a discount...Looking at the way the draft unfolded, I would prolly been OK with Shipley there too (although pre-daft I would've considered it a disapointment)...
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Post by polarbear91 on Jun 17, 2013 15:13:26 GMT -5
It's getting frustrating to hear the critique of the Ball pick because we wanted player X instead (Frazier, Stewart) when that player was not available. I get it, many of us wanted Frazier or Stewart, or whomever. Our fault for following the mock drafts too closely and convincing ourselves that one of the top 5 or 6 would surely fall to us for whatever reason. They didn't, they were picked ahead of us. If you would have preferred another player that was available (Meadows, Smith?), great, then bash the pick and tell us why if you choose to. Otherwise, I don't see the point in the criticism. The draft class was the draft class. Typical caliber no. 7 pick? I don't know. But I do know most of the sentiment was for the Red Sox to take someone with the highest upside possible, and it seems like that is what we got according to many/most analyses. That usually comes with inherent risk. So be it. Please, if you hate the pick, let me know who you would rather have had, of those players available at that pick.
Edit: Wickedlester, thanks. Looks like you posted exactly what I was hoping for as I was writing this.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 17, 2013 15:16:32 GMT -5
I wanted Frazier too, or Stewart, but you have to play the hand you´re given and those players just weren't available. We can bicker all we want but they were picked before us.
For me at that point it would be either Shipley or Ball, they went Ball and I'm alright with that. If they had gone Peterson then you'd see some serious rambling going on this forum.
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