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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 25, 2023 21:19:11 GMT -5
I don't expect a deluge of "likes" for this post, lol. But the extreme Tomase hate is pretty silly. He screwed up badly in his job 20 years ago. He let his competitiveness and desire to break a big story override his caution. But it was 20 friggin' years ago. Has anyone on here not screwed up in their job once in the last 20 years? It's not like his careless mistake caused the rest of the NFL or fans to think that HC NEP was a cheater. That cake was already baked. The journalistic screwup was akin to accusing Willie Sutton of robbing a bank that he didn't really rob. It was neutral in terms of affecting anyone's reputation. That’s not a screwup, what he did completely lacked in ethics. He is also terrible at radio despite having a face for it. He also clearly hasn’t learned www.concordmonitor.com/Sports/Patriots-Blog/Tomase-confirms-reality-is-upside-downHe is a total moron and he should’ve been out of journalism for good about 2 decades ago. The fact he has a job in this city is insane. Loved the line, "he is also terrible at radio despite have a face for it". Best line here today.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 25, 2023 21:10:50 GMT -5
Yeah this teams gonna be hard to beat, I don’t even think they’re playing particularly well and it’s not all that competitive so far Defense looking pretty great in Q1 The Knicks hit 6 more 3s than the Cs, highly unusual, and we still found a way to get the W. 60 more W to go.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 25, 2023 17:27:52 GMT -5
The wait is finally about over. Good health to the team and the rest should take care of itself.
Edit: Big Al off of the bench is a good move, improves the bench. I think there will be games with Horford starting and White on the bench but I anticipate most games White will start. What a starting five. Any one of the players could put up 30 and all of them are good defensively as well. Let's GO!
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 22, 2023 13:57:53 GMT -5
There are only 15 free agents coming off a 2+ WAR season (compared to 33 in each of the previous two seasons). Pros and cons of each:
Shohei Ohtani (9.0): Pro: the Sox' offense is in a more perilous condition than most people realize and he immediately fixes that. Also, he's Shohei Ohtani. Con: Will cost a bajillion dollars and won't pitch in 2024; as expensive as he'll be, will they have enough left over to fix the starting rotation?
Sonny Gray (5.3): Pro: if he pitches like he has the last few years, he's exactly what the rotation needs. Con: he'll be a 34 year old pitcher; inherently risky.
Jordan Montgomery (4.3): Pro: ditto Gray. Con: he'll be 31, which is younger than Gray but any plausible contract takes him into his elder care years.
Blake Snell (4.1): Pro: ditto Montgomery/Gray, with probably the best numbers of the bunch over the last two seasons. Con: his flashy ERA this year is probably a bit fluky; his xERA was 3.77 and he walked nearly 5 per 9 IP. He also has only 2 seasons over 130 IP, and the Red Sox really need durability.
Aaron Nola (3.9): Pro: ditto Montgomery/Gray/Snell, and the most durable of the bunch to date; he's coming off a down year, but the Phillies defense in the last few years, plus their ballpark, probably makes him look worse than he's really been (check out his xERAs). Con: a down year at age 30 makes you wonder if it's actually decline, and his K rate has been ticking down ever year since 2020.
Matt Chapman (3.5): Pro: clearly the best positional player available after Shohei; crazy outside-the-box option for 2B? Con: yeah that's probably crazy, and the Red Sox are set at 3B.
Jeimer Candelario (3.3): Pro: could be a cheap replacement for Justin Turner - insurance for a Casas or Devers injury. Con: if those two guys are healthy his only position is DH, and a 31 year old with a career 102 wRC+ is not really who you want there.
Kyle Gibson (2.6): Pro: could be a cheap option to be a second addition to the starting rotation. Con: is going to be 36 and is not actually very good.
Kershaw (2.3): Pro: Kershaw should be in the conversation for greatest pitcher of all time, whether people realize it or not. Con: it'll surely be LAD or retirement for him, and another injury-prone innings-limited starter is not what the Red Sox need.
Brandon Belt (2.3): Pro: he's been a startlingly good hitter the last few seasons - 140 wRC+ since 2020. Con: a lefty corner bat is about the last thing the Red Sox need; only makes sense in some exotic scenario where Casas gets traded or something. And he'll be 36.
Jason Heyward (2.2): Pro: good defensive corner outfielder and could replace Verdugo if the latter were traded. Con: contained in the pro - he's redundant with Verdugo. Plus his bounceback this season was a nice story but it depended on a 30 point overperformance of his xwOBA and he's 34.
Kevin Kiermaier (2.2): Pro: great defender, and maybe a better hitter than people think (career 98 wRC+). Con: yet another lefty outfielder, and doesn't add the offense the team needs.
JD Martinez (2.2): Pro: it wouldn't be completely crazy to bring him back as a one-year Turner replacement; they need righty bats. Con: pure DH with zero positional flexibility; his 31% K rate is scary; it's not clear the LAD magic dust would travel with him back to Fenway.
Mitch Garver (2.1): Pro: would be a good way to get some more righty juice into the lineup as a replacement for McGuire. Con: not sure the defense is up to snuff; he was actually mostly a DH in Texas, starting at C only 28 games this year. As a righty he's a bit redundant with Wong.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (2.1): Pro: an outfielder and a righty bat, which they could use; basically a Duvall replacement. Con: a respectable but not great 109 wRC+ since 2021 and he just turned 30; not great on defense.
There is 1 notable miss here, Cody Bellinger. He doesn’t really fit a need though having him play CF/1B at an elite level gives some flexibility, and I’m sure he could play some RF. It could free up to move other pieces for pitching. It’s very unlikely to happen, but I could see a way it could work. That was my positional solution posted at least a month ago but was not well received here. Other than being yet another lefty batter in a roster that's LH heavy he's a great fit. He'd play RF, backs-up CF and 1B, and gives us a really nice 3,4,5 heart of the batting order punch. Then trade Verdugo as part of package perhaps with one of our back end starters and/or prospect/s to get a much better starter.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 22, 2023 8:42:58 GMT -5
I can’t stand them, but also like the Patriots, they had a cheating scandal, took a lot of national criticism for it (maybe more deserved in the Astros’ case), and yet have kept winning anyway. At this point, even their biggest critics have to admit they’re for real. I don't know how many people doubted they were "for real. To me, that's not the issue. You cheat, you tarnish yourself. Yeah, ones, Clemens, ARod were all tremendous players before they cheated. But they cheated and there's no erasing that. Never said it's the only reason those guys were good, but you deserve to lose respect if you do it. Keep in mind absence of proof is not proof of absence. That also applies to the taking steroids scandals.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 22, 2023 1:08:04 GMT -5
Terrible boarding called on Coyle I originally thought the same thing but after the replay I can see why the call was made, it was a 50/50 call that could have gone either way. Now some reasoned the B's 3-0 start was due to a weak schedule, well many picked LA to be a true Cup contender AND the B's had played back to back road games and had every excuse in the world to lose and still won 4-2. I updated my projections of the team right around opening night. I HATE changing prognostications early season because it shows a lack of a system as well as conviction. I don't have a Hockey system but I know I have a real feel for the game based on announcers repeating what I say right after I say it so frequently that I wonder if my mother was right in that I should have been a sports announcer, anyway, if they can pull off Sunday's third game in four nights, then all pre-season prognostications by everybody SHOULD be updated. The record of NHL teams winning their third game in four days, (this preceded 5 nights off wTF), rest assured is less then 25% and likely well below that. They didn't use AI for the schedule this year rest assured
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 18, 2023 20:29:03 GMT -5
That is a ridiculous statement. If ZIPS projects Trout at 15 WAR over the next 7 years, are you saying ZIPS is being ridiculous or that it is ridiculous to expect for 15 WAR from Abreu? Projections systems do not take into account injuries going forward only based on what has occurred the past years.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 17, 2023 20:19:53 GMT -5
Re-Revised (I thought I read on this site that Law had the Sox at 20 but 23 it is): The Athletic/Law: 23 Baseball America: 5 ESPN/Kiley: 14 Fangraphs/Longenhagen: 4 MLB: 16 Interesting that three of these are basically the opinion of one guy each, which is filtered through whatever prospects they've seen, plus video, plus what they've heard from scouts. It's all subjective, obviously, but if you prefer Kiley, or Law or Longenhagen (or Callis, who I understand does a lot of MLB's) or their methods, then you have your favored ranking. For example, both Law and MLB ding the Sox for lack of starting pitching prospects who project to be more than #5s, which seems to be a more "both sides of the system = balance" perspective. Fangraphs is a straight-up aggregate of their perceived future value, which may be more coldly reflective of seeing these players as "system assets" and "currency for trades," and also fits nicely with a fantasy baseball keeper league outlook. Personally, I read them all, but invest the most consideration for individual players to the reviews on this website. Keith Law didn't rerank the farms midyear like the other sites but he did briefly mention the Sox farm today in his Athletic article about Chaim. "The farm system has taken a sharp turn for the better this year, with a strong draft this July, a big step forward for Roman, and smaller breakouts or returns to form from other position players." That was one difference he had with Callis who on the podcast here only thought the Sox had an average draft because other teams had higher comp picks. Law named the Sox as having one of the four best drafts. He was less enthusiastic about the minor league pitchers this year saying he still didn't see anyone better than a number 5 starter. On July 21, he had Mayer at 3, Roman, Ceddanne, and Teel at 45,48,and 50 with Bonaci in his top 80. With what has happened since, I would think Mayer might drop some but with the next 3 all moving up. I would think he will have Boston somewhere in the top 15 in his next rankings. So the systems with the lower ranking seem very flawed by the measures you lay out. One of them even admitted they made no update during the year, what is the point then really when other relevant systems do ? Overall quality is where it's at whether or not you have a weakness at starting pitching or your 5th OF'er makes zero sense to me. The basis of their system is highly flawed I'd even go so far as to say child-like in the approach, again if it is based on what you say and I have no reason to doubt you. It's safe to say we have a top farm system that any relevant systems has us at #4 to about #12 and the truth is often some wherein between. I understand it's fluid and constantly changing and any number is more about a range at one point in time.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 15, 2023 18:08:36 GMT -5
Credit to Mac. That was a great throw. Too bad Parker sucks. First two games of the season in the final drives, wide receivers and tight ends did the same thing drop balls that were good to great throws. But you know people want to, even seem to need to blame Jones. They are barking up the wrong tree.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 14, 2023 12:36:51 GMT -5
I don't understand why you wouldn't expect to have the one person who you would be interacting with multiple times a day if you're hired, included as part of the hiring process.
And not every GM walks into a blank slate, including having an existing field manager in place.
I have no doubt that the new exec will be able fire Cora within the first year of being hired if s/he feels it necessary. At the same time, it would be hard to justify unless he did a wicked hatchet job. I would think that your first priority would be to remake the roster to your liking and matching a field manager to that roster would come after.
100% this. I legit just want someone who can hand a bag money to a good starter free agent in 3+ weeks, maybe know how to make some trades. Don’t need to reinvent the wheel here - just make the team better without handing over all of our best prospects or doing something clearly insane. The Sox are at an extremely important cross roads right now regarding obtaining top notch starting pitchers to fill the blackhole and achilles heal of the team and organization. To fire Bloom right now without already having someone lined up to perform the GM role means one of two things to me, the person they had in mind had a change of heart and or they had no confidence in Bloom and his ability to acquire two top notch starters, (I'd prefer three new SP's but concede that obtaining two front end starters. is more of a neccessity to putting the team back into being a true contender status).
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 14, 2023 12:22:10 GMT -5
The 2 headed goalie tandem is going to be huge. I think whats really good is they have extra in Providence. They have legit help down there. They can plug and play either the Forward or Defense. More versatile. Should be a good season. The top tandem of goalies are back. Nearly all the defensemen, Clifton & Orlov aside but he was an in season addition and terrible in the playoffs, are back and are arguably as good as any backline in the league. They lost depth at their forwards, top 6 to be exact and they are without question weaker there. However their are areas where there is still expectations for improvement such as Debrusk only played in 64 games, and still had 27 goals and was the second best Goals/game player on the team, so a full season of him makes the team better. Remember before any of the in-season additions such as Bertuzzi and Orlov they had the best record in the league sans Marchand and Debrusk for a considerable amount of that time. Frederic finally established himself as a regular and had his best season and at his age we should expect him to improve on last season. Pavel Zacha won the 7th player award, rightfully so, and by every measure and the eye test to looks like he could easily fill the skates of our second line center, again we should expect him to improve as well based on age and ice time increase. I've talked myself into improved expectations for the team, as i was very recently thinking they were a 7 to 10 seed in our conference or either side of making the playoffs and no more, now I think they more than likely could be a 5 to 8 seed. Also, while I was completley against trading Ullmark last season, this season it makes a ton more sense depending on how the season goes. If lack of offense is the issue and missing a true #1 center and their goalies continue to excel in Providence, Bussi and Keyser, then the depth here allows you to persue a #1 Center or at least a top 6 forward who can fill some of the offensive void lost from a season ago.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 7, 2023 8:56:36 GMT -5
If you don't believe they can build a legitimate contender as is, then how do you think they were going to do it by trading a goalie in a market where teana were gouging those that were tight against the Cap? They would not have gotten anywhere close to value for either goalie this offseason. Maintain what you can and make your move later (yes, while being competitive). Wouldn't surprise me if one of the goalies was gone before the deadline. To answer your question regarding gouging, you could only do that if you know there is no-one else out there competing for the same thing you'd like to add, once you believe their is others out there competing for the same thing you are, then the leverage goes back to the team trading, never mind they don't have to make any move either. I agree with the rest of it.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 7, 2023 8:50:43 GMT -5
Barring catastrophic injury, this team is going to be extremely good. Being able to roll out these lineups in crunch time dependent on matchup is ridiculous: Jrue-White-JB-JT-Horford Jrue-White-JB-JT-Porzingis Jrue-JB-JT-Porzingis-Horford One more to add Jrue-White-JB-JT-Porzingis
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 3, 2023 19:14:21 GMT -5
Don I don't disagree about Horford, just pointing out without a complete change to the offense it won't be the massive upgrade it should be. The Unicorn standing at 3 point line floor spacing for the Jays isn't some huge upgrade. I don't think Unicorn is a bad defender, there's a massive difference though in can anchor your D to what the Unicorn is. Like I said it can work, it just requires massive changes with a young inexperienced coach who was in way over his head last year. Holiday is 33 years old, which limits your time. I'd look at this much differently if he was younger. Nevermind I'm a huge advanced stat guy. This is what I see per the stats. An older Holiday struggles against good D in playoffs to get to basket and becomes more of a jump shooter in playoffs. Where his 3 point percentage tanks. Heck even in regular season his percentage of shots at rim has gone down for 4 straight years. Now I'll admit I don't know if this is athletic decline or more to do with Bucks offense. The ideal guy for us is age 29 Holiday, over 30% of his shots at rim. Last four years, 33.7%, 27.9%, 22.2% and 19.4% last year. Last four playoffs 32.9%, 22.4%, 17.0% and 10.6% last year. Last four playoffs 3 point shot percentage 29.4%, 36.5%, 33.6% and 49.4%, for a guy who's well below average from distance in playoffs. It causes his true shooting percentage to tank. We don't need another guy just jacking up 3 point shots in the playoffs. While shooting 32%, 30.3%, 31.6% and 28.6% last year playoffs. He is much better than Smart from mid range, but so was Brogdon. His stats against teams like Celtics and Heat just aren't good, the exact teams we need hin to step up against. I truly hope I'm wrong and it's more what the Bucks did than athletic decline. Even his dunks have gone from 20 to 30 a season to single digits. Yeah I'm worried. It's not just big man depth either, who's your 6th man? What's your playoff rotation? Pritchard, Horford and Hauser? I love Pritchard, it's certainly not ideal if he's your 6th man. That's a problem with this move, if made earlier you keep Grant and that bench looks a lot better. I'm not trying to be negative, it's just what I see. I really worry by the time our coach figures this out Holiday is Horford and well past his prime. A guy like Lillard could have produced in the system you ran last year. I really wonder if Stevens builds teams for his coaches or ones he'd want to coach and he could do well with. Lot's of good content here. Regarding the sixth-man I think it has to be either White or Big Al, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if those two switch up alot depending upon match-ups against other teams and whether they decide to go with 2 bigs or a smaller line-up. They really need to manage Horford's playing time this year. If only Brogdon passed the exam in the original Porzingas trade, he was all but hurt and raised a stink until Steven traded him. Portland insisted on Williams as part of the trade for Holiday. I wonder if Smart could have been a chip instead of Williams? I doubt it but I can dream about that team. That and a younger Holliday which you already alluded to. I do think it was an overpay by Stevens but if Jrue was several years younger and had at least another year on his contract I'd feel alot better about the trade. We have a rapidly aging Horford, an injury prone Porzingas and Jrue whose on the back nine of his career. If it does not all come together this year, what then??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 3, 2023 0:01:59 GMT -5
Brogdon, Rob, GS first and 2029 Boston first. Don’t like it. I don't like it either. I LOVE it. Going to miss Time Lord, no doubt. But often hurt. Jrue is a tough team player. Maybe the best guard on guard defender in the NBA (Marcus could guard bigs too, but often struggled with his primary assignment). Bonus Effect: more playing time for Sam & Peyton & The Green Kornet. This team just got eminently more watchable. I'm on the fence regarding the trade, I do think they gave up to much but clearly this is an all chips pushed to the middle type move so you sacrifice tomorrow for the win today. On that level it makes alot of sense however others stating Rob was injury prone well so is Porzingas and Hortford looked his age at times in the playoffs and I can't help wondering when the thread is worn thin on those tires with alot of miles on them, we needed that depth for a reason. I'm going to miss Rob as I like to think that I was in early on how good a player he was and what he meant to the team. Also Holiday is already 33 and only has a year left on his contract. That said he's a great fit for the team and we now have the best starting five in the NBA. Does White start? Maybe we have the best top 6 in the NBA and it will be fun watching some players evolve into more useful roll players such as Pritchard, Sam and Kornet. Alot of changes in one offseason, No Smart, Timelord, Brogdon and Grant Williams either
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 23, 2023 8:13:08 GMT -5
Bolded is simply untrue. BA and FG both have them top 5. Pipeline and ESPN have it mid. Law hasn't updated. That's a pretty big distortion. Oh sorry then, I stand corrected. I thought publications weren't as high on the farm system. Based on what exactly? Why would you do that as you post here regularly and it's been been mentioned oh I don't know perhaps literally thousands of times allready. It's the reason we've been through what we've been through the past 4 or so years to get back to being a top farm system from a large market and all the things it allows the club to do aka with a few shrewd moves (top front end starting pitchers and perhaps a good hitting RH hitter) actually contend again.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 23, 2023 8:07:46 GMT -5
But the farm system is still mid, according to most major publications, and he has given big contracts to Story and Yoshida which LOL. While it's hard to quantify his job in win percentage due to the amount of variables, the roster construction is pedestrian at best and honestly we shouldn't settle for pedestrian. His approach was turning us into the MLB equivalent of the Indiana Pacers. Kind of too good to tank, too bad to win. Irrelevant is the word. Well, if you believe Story was signed to replace Xander, he actually cut salary by signing Story. Well if he wasn't then it certainly was plan B. Personnaly I was very sure that Xander would either be traded or leave via free agency the moment they signed Xander and even in retrospect I'm not sure how any could argue that if it wasn't plan A it certainly was plan B. If he'd been healthier it would be a different Story as Bloom would have signed a better SS for what turns out alot less money and alot less comittment. I'm looking forward to seeing what a difference a truly healthy Story can bring to the table next year. I think his ceiling might have another Story or two to add to it than most people realize. (Sorry but I couldn't help myself with the puns.) Is anyone here not excited about the direction the team is heading in? This off-season might be the biggest one they've had in about six years. Having a GM in place would make me feel a little bit better about the whole signing of key free agent starting pitcherS thing which has a very realistic chance of making us instant contenders again. I'm also curious to see how the outfield situation and or too lefthanded hitting heavy situation is resolved but having to many bodies is always better than not having enough.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 22:14:34 GMT -5
So you are telling me there is a chance?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 22:09:50 GMT -5
How LATE can a flag be. Watched the replay and it's total BS.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 22:03:38 GMT -5
The concern I have with this team is the health of the bigs up front. Even assuming an otherwise healthy season, you are going to have rest days, nagging injuries that may only allow for fewer minutes, etc. I would be much more comfortable bringing in another big that can provide helpful minutes. So I'll just throw this out there and everyone can tell me why it won't happen or would be a bad idea: Brogdon for Markkanen. Thoughts? So what good big want's to come here knowing when everyone is healthy he's riding the bench? Trading Brogdon would leave you with what at pointguard? You do know they traded Smart? They would have White and Pritchard and no-one else and that is why you would not make that move.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 21:55:58 GMT -5
You can't blame Mac, hell last week he was leading the team to a comeback when until balls were dropped, Boutie couldn't drag his foot with 2 to 3 feet to do it. A quarterback can't throw AND catch the ball at least that's what the former Ms. Brady claimed.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 20:46:21 GMT -5
Love how the refs missing the knee down completely helped Miami, coach should not be allowed to communicate to the QB to run that play becuase he would not have been able to if the refs did not blow the play dead, so they roll time of the clock HOWEVER it was as if they did have a time out despite not having any timeouts argggg.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 20:14:36 GMT -5
Welp,we got 3 really good starting pitcher performances this weekend, all from guys under contract for 2024. I'll take that as a win ! Not really sure what you mean by that but I would not base anything for pitching for 2024 than one series in 2023 in Toronto. We need at least 2 top to middle of the rotation starters and possibly even a third starter added. Bello is the only reliable middle to top of the rotation starter we have. The rest are at best middle to back end and I'd include Sale on that list simply because you cannot depend on him to be healthy and even when healthy this year he's been a bit erratic with great starts off-set by terrible ones. He needs to consistently hit his spots now that his fast ball is not as over powering as it once was.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 15:24:47 GMT -5
Prediction: Raffy has a massive year next year. I think he was pressing because of the extension and being the last star standing. Next year, I bet he loosens up and absolutely goes nuclear. He's having a "down year" and is gonna end with like 36 home runs and 110 RBI. If we strengthen the line up around him, he settles into being "the guy", I could easily see him having a monster season. He's got the power to hit 45 home runs in a season. Casas and Devers will be the 3, 4 next year they'd been doing that until Casas injury.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 17, 2023 15:23:26 GMT -5
yeah we need umpires like we need holes in our head. Another blown call leading directly to a loss.
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