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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 16, 2023 17:55:52 GMT -5
And it goes on and on and on. Crazy game
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 14, 2023 22:52:24 GMT -5
If the replacement has any PR savvy whatsoever he extends Casas on day 1 Why would any GM do that and not wait a minimum of near two whole seasons before opening the wallet? The GM/team have all the leverage and I know why you are saying what your saying but it makes no sense not to wait at least one more year due to injuries, adjustements, training habits, growth etc that you'd want to see at a minimum. Doing it after 1 season is excessively giving away the far and to risky, you need at least another year to better evaluate the risk assessment involved.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 14, 2023 22:29:00 GMT -5
Honestly though, are we just going to go in this cycle forever? Hire new GM to go for it, trade all prospects, sign big contracts, good for three years, fade, fire GM, hire new GM to rebuild. What if on the next up-cycle they don't win a World Series? This very well could be ownerships plan. Not enough conversation about that. If it is and there does now appear some evidence that would suggest it's a distinct possibility, then it changes how you look at all this , no? Maybe the figured there's more GM's who excel at one verse the other than there is ones who excel at both maintaning a top farm system while competiting for a title at the same time. I can see both sides of the Bloom discussion as I'm not fully entrenched on either side, that said for the first time in several years the future looks very bright and it would have been nice to see what he could have done this off-season. To me that means ownership does not believe Bloom would be able to do what he needs to do to make the Sox at least a wild card team as the basement and the ceiling allways being a true contender.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 14, 2023 22:17:42 GMT -5
In the spirit of reminiscing my personal takes on: Worst Bloom moves: - JBJ as starting outfielder 2022 - Kiké as starting shortstop 2023- Barnes extension Best Bloom moves: - Vazquez trade - Workman trade - Whitlock - Duvall (I know this is connected to Kiké as shortstop) - Kiké 1st deal - Schwarber The trade for Mondesi did not work out too well. Is that a baseball judgment, a medical judgement, or just bad luck? For most it has nothing to do with reality and more about how the person feels about Bloom.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 14, 2023 20:58:43 GMT -5
Nice catch, keeps them in the game
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 13, 2023 23:05:38 GMT -5
Really useful reference! Yeah, this ain't the winter for position player shopping. I'm glad they locked up Devers last winter because he would have been easily the biggest name among hitters (Ohtani excepted, as he always is). Quickly eyeballing it, there's nobody that I'm clamoring for - I think it's get an outfielder in the Duvall/Kepler tier so the young guys aren't the only option, and then go wild after starting pitching. I'm surprised more people aren't interested in Bellinger. A 28 YO MPV and GG winner as recently as 2019 who for the two previous seasons only posted OPS+ of 44 and 81 but has rebound to a very good season of 139 so far this season. He solves all of our problems but one. He's a LHH, however his OPS+ verse lefties are reverse this year with a 168 verse lefties and 131 verse righties. He could man RF and back-up first base. He'd be a heart of the batting order type batter. He'd have some risk because of the two previous seasons which SHOULD surpress his overall contract value. Most projections/evaulations correctly weigh the most current seasson the heaviest in any good formula so dismissing this season when he's had even greater success in the past is very shortsited. There is no great RH on the market and our biggest needs are a top of the line rotation starter and at least another #3 or better, so if we make any trades it should be focused on pitching. So other than resigning Duvall there is not really anything else out there worth signing for as a hitter. If he hits LH pitching better than RH pitching than the whole he's another LH hitter and we have to many becomes a totally moot point. I also strongly suspect Turner leaves after this season and at 39 years old to bellieve he's more likely to repeat this year than Bellinger is, is a bet I'd give at least two to one odds on. Now if Cody get a $200M dollar contract then good for you Cody and the Sox liklely would not go there and I'd agree with that to. But if he would sign a contract akin to Trevors' then I'm telling you a different Story. He improves both your defense AND very likely your offense too. His bat would also allow the Sox to provide a longer rope with Rafaele in CF that is if he even needs it because in a very SSS he looks legit to me, legit enough to give him at least several months worth in CF even if he slumps with the bat to give him time to figure it out again that's if its even needed. Abreu and Durran platoon in LF and back up both CF and RF.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 13, 2023 22:52:35 GMT -5
Also, I understand that the league has had their hand forced to some extent by the advent of strike zone boxes on TV. But it makes me sad to think about the colorful legacy of umpires in little league, baseball movies, Casey At The Bat, and so on, and to think that at the highest level it’s going to be replaced by a guy behind the plate whose job is to relay orders from an earpiece controlled by a computer. Ultimately, isn’t part of the charm of baseball the illusion that the pros are playing a more polished version of the game that we played as kids on sandlots, complete with getting mad at the umpire when he misses a call? That seems like a major part of baseball’s identity to me, and I’m not sure that a handful of borderline strike calls per game (that tend to even out anyway) are worth that trade 'Tend to even out' is a whim based on what you want to believe but not based on anything real. Illusion should never charm anyone by another desription it's a lie and not what is real, sorry but I never want to be charmed by that, I prefer the truth the reality no matter how much it may hurt at times. I'll never understand those comforted by errors and or lies. Why is the truth and reality not allways your first second and third choice. I wouldn't trust anyone who doesn't and I don't see how anyone else would either.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 13, 2023 19:20:04 GMT -5
Also, I understand that the league has had their hand forced to some extent by the advent of strike zone boxes on TV. But it makes me sad to think about the colorful legacy of umpires in little league, baseball movies, Casey At The Bat, and so on, and to think that at the highest level it’s going to be replaced by a guy behind the plate whose job is to relay orders from an earpiece controlled by a computer. Ultimately, isn’t part of the charm of baseball the illusion that the pros are playing a more polished version of the game that we played as kids on sandlots, complete with getting mad at the umpire when he misses a call? That seems like a major part of baseball’s identity to me, and I’m not sure that a handful of borderline strike calls per game (that tend to even out anyway) are worth that trade Do you not think the league approved the strike zones on TV? Surely they advocated for it behind the scenes. It's very naive to think they were not involved. Man hates changes even when it's to his own benefit, so I argued about 10 years ago with about 10 people at work at lunch that the strike zone on TV was a sure sign that eventually strikes would be automated and the proof was the strike zone shown on TV. That's how most change happens, slowly so the masses can adjust. About 2 weeks later the league first the first time allowed calls to be reviewed and changed. That was the smoking gun right there and I let the other 10 know about it to and none of them protested much after that. Well 10 years later I'm finally on the verge of being right. I knew I would be but I'm surprised it's taken this long.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 13, 2023 18:24:31 GMT -5
I'm excited but this would be cooler: Why did you have to wreck it for me? Zachory Smith was a total douche nozzel.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 10, 2023 9:35:35 GMT -5
I have no doubt in my mind that Abreu is better than Duran and if one of them should be traded, it should be Duran. Would it not make more sense to trade one year left of arbitration of Verdugo, whose value is so much more established and who the Sox would let walk after the season even if he was not traded? 2024-Outfield Duran in LF, Rafaele in CF, Duvala / Abreu in RF. Duvala resigned as they need to attempt to keep some RH power. Duvala backs up CF, Abreu backs up LF and Refsnyder is the fifth OF'er for depth. Why does anyone believe the Red Sox do not intend to start Rafaele in CF next year? Due to his D his basement is solid but his upside still needs to be seen.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 9, 2023 23:11:22 GMT -5
Verdugo/Duran/Abreu starting, Ref/Rafaela back ups, Yoshida full time DH looks acceptable to me
I don't like Yoshi as full time DH. he doesn't hit enough HR's. Probably a lot of bias on my part, but I want that position to have 30 HR potential. Why be so arbitrary on a single counting stat as opposed to a range based on SLG%? Based even on your own line of thought it would be alot more to the point but widening the parameters of who they'd apply to.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 9, 2023 13:51:50 GMT -5
Which in all honesty they aren't wrong. Seems to me most 5+ year deals for pitchers 30+ go belly up. Only problem for the next 1-3 years is they need pitching pretty badly. So they're between a rock and a hard place if they can't reel in Yamamoto. They absolutely need at least one starter that's of a much higher class than the kluber/richards/wacha mold. They do. I just have a hard time believing they'll pull the trigger. Yamamoto is the most realistic target. So apprarently the achilles heal of the O's is starting pitching too and the team is full of homegrown talent which means they are a competitor for what we need the most too. The Sox at a minimum need 2 quality starting pitchers, and I'd claim they should get 3 but I just don't see them doing that.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 21:06:10 GMT -5
So I seen a similar article however it was just pure speculation. There are several really good ideas on why that speculation is suspect and it would the last few season before this year. I think he'll get around $24/$25 million/year and at 28 YO I'd go as many as 6 years. If he gets $200M, I'd agree with you but I'm not sold he'll get that much. Even at 6 years at or around 25 mil seems too much for my liking. He's not a great fit for the lineup, they don't really need another LHH OF. Perhaps if they deal Verdugo or something but even then I just don't love the fit at big money. I did actually propose to trade Verdugo as he only has a year left on his arbitration years and he's not part of the answer.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 21:03:28 GMT -5
The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) [...] There is almost no amount of money I would be unwilling to bet that the Red Sox will not start the year with LHH batting 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (with a weakish hitter batting second). And there is supposed to be a counter thought proposed otherwise that's not constructive in any way shape or form. We already are left hand dominant and an impactful batter who solves all your other problems is an impactful batter who solves all your other problems AND I also mentioned buying time until the right fit comes along so you can trade for one.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 20:57:33 GMT -5
Not only does it make sense but is also very likely. Let Turner walk and even Duvall. To offset that one other option would be signing Bellinger whose only 28 and appears to be much closer to his MVP season than the player since then until this year. He's not ideal since he also is a lefty hitter too, that said hear me out. He's a CF'er whose glove is about average in CF, slide him over to RF. Abreu backs him up. in CF is Rafaela with Bellinger backing him up. In LF is Durran/ Abreu. Refsnyder remain the 5th option in the OF. Bellinger can back-up 1B should Casas be injured. Turner and Duvall make about $15M plus so CB makes about $17M this year and likely to recieve a solid raise say $24 ish. So he adds about $9M to the positional players on the roster. Sign an ace, assume $30M/yr and a mid rotation starter assume $20M./yr and you add $50M/ to the rotation or about $59M to next year roster. This team would be instantly a playoff contender maybe more and I don't see a roster spot blocked as eventually Story will move to second when Mayer is ready (late 2025?) and he'd block Yorke, actually the Sox owe a $5M buyout so should Yorke etc force their way onto the roster the Sox could easily use that buyout option. Add a trade with Verdugo (1 yr left) and Crawford (5 years) for a #3 type with 2 years left of arbitration eligible or something as close to that as you can. The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) Bench OF option-1 Abreu, option-2-Refsnyder Bench IF- 1 which ever of Reyes or Urias loses the 2B battle. Urias can back up 3b and more. Rafaela-SS. Bellinger backs up 1B Bench C-MCGuire SP-1-Free Agent signing (ex. Yamamoto) SP-2 or 3- Bello SP-3 or 2-(ex Nola/Snell/Montgomery types) SP-4- (trade SP whose about to enter arb-2) for Verdugo and Crawford, the best upgrade you can get on Crawford. Wildcard on salary team impact but likely be less overall cost. SP-5-Sale-whose last year with the Sox could very well be 2024 as the team has a club option of $20M for 2025. Wikelman Gonzalez should be ready by then. Bullpen similar to this year but Houck, Pivetta and Whitlock go to the pen full time until the inevitable with one ready for another Sale injuries or injuries to others too. Alot more pitching depth especially to the starting rotation which wether or not you realize it was the achilles heal of this team. It was somewhat obvious before the season to so lets not kid ourselves here. So even with these adds they'd still be well below the CBT AND after the 24 season they'd shed Sales contract. This off-season is the off-season to add several key free agents. AA will be loaded with several prospects with several likely to arrive in Boston in 2025 at various parts of the season. Everything is lining up perfectly to take-on a few expensive contracts this off-season and still retain roster flexibility. (at some point they should trade for an impactful right handed batter but remain vigilent until the fit is very good). This team above would have no real weakness other than ideally you'd have a RH heart of the line-up bat in there to break up having to many LH batters in a row. That's alot better than having bad defense and poor starting pitcher, offense should be about the same BUT have higher upside than this years. I've seen Bellinger get predictions north of 200M for a contract. No thanks on that. So I seen a similar article however it was just pure speculation. There are several really good ideas on why that speculation is suspect and it would the last few season before this year. I think he'll get around $24/$25 million/year and at 28 YO I'd go as many as 6 years. If he gets $200M, I'd agree with you but I'm not sold he'll get that much.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 6, 2023 21:30:06 GMT -5
I'm pretty surprised so many people seem to be content to go into next season with an offense that's weaker than the current lineup. Fourth best offense in AL. A year of improvement/experience from Casas and Yoshida, plus a healthy Story will help the lineup. The defense and pitching is the issue with this team. The defense needs vast improvement and that will help the pitching. This team can weaken the offense some, if it leads to improved defense therefore a better run differential. Not only does it make sense but is also very likely. Let Turner walk and even Duvall. To offset that one other option would be signing Bellinger whose only 28 and appears to be much closer to his MVP season than the player since then until this year. He's not ideal since he also is a lefty hitter too, that said hear me out. He's a CF'er whose glove is about average in CF, slide him over to RF. Abreu backs him up. in CF is Rafaela with Bellinger backing him up. In LF is Durran/ Abreu. Refsnyder remain the 5th option in the OF. Bellinger can back-up 1B should Casas be injured. Turner and Duvall make about $15M plus so CB makes about $17M this year and likely to recieve a solid raise say $24 ish. So he adds about $9M to the positional players on the roster. Sign an ace, assume $30M/yr and a mid rotation starter assume $20M./yr and you add $50M/ to the rotation or about $59M to next year roster. This team would be instantly a playoff contender maybe more and I don't see a roster spot blocked as eventually Story will move to second when Mayer is ready (late 2025?) and he'd block Yorke, actually the Sox owe a $5M buyout so should Yorke etc force their way onto the roster the Sox could easily use that buyout option. Add a trade with Verdugo (1 yr left) and Crawford (5 years) for a #3 type with 2 years left of arbitration eligible or something as close to that as you can. The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) Bench OF option-1 Abreu, option-2-Refsnyder Bench IF- 1 which ever of Reyes or Urias loses the 2B battle. Urias can back up 3b and more. Rafaela-SS. Bellinger backs up 1B Bench C-MCGuire SP-1-Free Agent signing (ex. Yamamoto) SP-2 or 3- Bello SP-3 or 2-(ex Nola/Snell/Montgomery types) SP-4- (trade SP whose about to enter arb-2) for Verdugo and Crawford, the best upgrade you can get on Crawford. Wildcard on salary team impact but likely be less overall cost. SP-5-Sale-whose last year with the Sox could very well be 2024 as the team has a club option of $20M for 2025. Wikelman Gonzalez should be ready by then. Bullpen similar to this year but Houck, Pivetta and Whitlock go to the pen full time until the inevitable with one ready for another Sale injuries or injuries to others too. Alot more pitching depth especially to the starting rotation which wether or not you realize it was the achilles heal of this team. It was somewhat obvious before the season to so lets not kid ourselves here. So even with these adds they'd still be well below the CBT AND after the 24 season they'd shed Sales contract. This off-season is the off-season to add several key free agents. AA will be loaded with several prospects with several likely to arrive in Boston in 2025 at various parts of the season. Everything is lining up perfectly to take-on a few expensive contracts this off-season and still retain roster flexibility. (at some point they should trade for an impactful right handed batter but remain vigilent until the fit is very good). This team above would have no real weakness other than ideally you'd have a RH heart of the line-up bat in there to break up having to many LH batters in a row. That's alot better than having bad defense and poor starting pitcher, offense should be about the same BUT have higher upside than this years.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 4, 2023 20:04:19 GMT -5
Generally speaking that's been true however the roster has several farm grown arms playing for the team lead by Brayan Bello and I'm excited to see Wikelman Gonzalez whose had a great breakout year and may be up by the end of next season. That said I would like the Sox to add 2 starting pitchers to the team; a front end starter and a mid rotation starter. Sign one, there actually is a surprising # of SP1 & SP2's and trade for another. Verdugo and one of the prospects that's outside the top 5 should be able to get a mid-rotation starter whose cost would be mostly offset by Verdugos salary. It's all inter-related regarding the line-up and starting rotation. Starting Rotation: 1.Free agent signing www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/. 2. Brayan Bello 3. Trade. 4. Chris Sale (he's to unreliable at this point to list him higher and call it a defendable plan, 5. Crawford. The line-up is similar to last year with a few differences. 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L), where his range is not used to it's potential but they play just as many games on the road and his defense is an improvement on Yoshi almost by default. Will his OBP be enough to justify lead-off?, his speed certainly will. 2. SS-Story (R) is hopefully a healthy Story's until Myers arrives however that is starting to look like at least 2 years away. It would be nice to see his #'s reflect something in the proximity of his last season in Colorada (.251/329/471) 24HR-20SB, 4.2 War. 3. 3B-Devers (L) I have no expectations regarding improved D so if we have to live with it he can for a few seasons during his prime years at least approach his lofty 2019 season. 4. 1B-Casas (L)- I do have higher expectation that he can get his D close enough to average to where it's not an issue and the bat can at least replicate this season without the dreadful April involved. I do think there is a very good chance he makes the jump next season to be a #4 type hitter because of the advanced approach he has at the plate, rarely swinging his bat at ball outside the strike zone, expectations should be high for him. His OPS, .862 is already the 16th best among qualified batters, thinking top 10 and an OPS above .900 is not unreasonable. 5. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L), limiting him to playing in the field one a week (the day before a natural off day) should keep him from wearing down as well as keep the bench sharper. And while he would only play LF w/ Durran in LF you would be able to rotate throughout the rest of the outfield giving each spot an extra day off every 3 weeks the day before a scheduled day off, keeping everyone fresh but I digress to much. I think expecting Yoshi to slightly improve as he learns the league some more and what he can expect on and off the field is a realistic expectation. 6. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) who as recently as 2021 had a .789 OPS season with 49 XBH including 23 HR's not bad for a middle infielder. 7. RF-Wilyer Abreu (L) his approach and control of the strike zone plays up. Possible platoon with Duvall (R) if the Price is Right. 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) like his speed with Durran and Story back to back to back a few times a game to put pressure on the other sides defense and pitching and with the heart of the order more likely to see fastballs. Batting Rafaele 9th takes alot of pressure of him, and yet it could also fuel him too. Should he struggle some, which I'd totally expect for any rookie, batting ninth makes it more viable to stick with him long enough until he figures it out. Turner is not listed here. He'll be 39 years old its shocking he has not gone off a cliff yet, but how realistic is it to expect the other shoe to not drop at any time?. It's his option so I thank him for his services and hope he moves on and we take that money and put it toward SP. He'll I wouldn't be against even adding a third SP to the team, maybe an older former ace on a large one year deal? and after 2024 Wikelman has a chance to step in. The defense up the middle would be strong, the OF defense is strong, we'd only be weak at the IF corners. The offense takes a small hit but the pitching and defense is much stronger which should help the bullpen too. The Sox still owe alot of defered money; 2023- $22,444,333, but that drops way down to $740,000 for 2024 & $760,000 for 2025. Chris Sale's I believe comes off the books after 2024 if the Sox don't exercise the club option of $20M for 2025, and I don't see that happening, unless I don't understand it the way I think I do. The will be paying him deferred money come 2035 but that is another story. Both Manny and Pedria are owed over $2M thru 2026 and Dustin's final year is 2027. Alot of old money is coming off the books soon. The CBT for 2024 is $237,000,000 and the Sox right now for 2024 sit at Est. Tax Payroll (Active + Est. Arb + Est. Pre-Arb) $159,780,185, so even if they spent $50 to $60 million on 2 SP's they'd stay well below the threshold and should contend with a much deeper and improved starting rotation, a better bullpen due to a lesser workload, better defense and a slightly worse offense. This would be a much better balanced team for 2024 AND it would be set up to clear even more off the books, while still being well below the CBT just when the steady stream of prospects becomes a better flow in 2025. After 2024 they can step back, re-evaulate and re-assess the team weakness and sign or trade for the RH bat the team needs in lieu of the overwhelming left handesness of it. A thoughtful post. However, there is something i clearly am missing. Why do we care if we get Duvall back " if the price is right"? Why not get him back on a one year contract for whatever it takes? If Duvall and Turner are both not back the returning righthand hitter with the most home runs will be Wong who currently has 8. And while they are 7th in runs scored this year, they are around 15th in home runs. Eliminating 2 guys who have accounted for 40 plus of the homers they have hit doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Since we are under the cap this year, why do we care if we are over next year? While I am concerned about the defense, I don't want the offense to regress either. SS, 2nd, and catcher do not look like offensive strong points next year. (I would not want Story hitting 2nd until he proves he can hit a lot better than he did last year and so far this year). We need the other 6 lineup spots to be way above average every day. Who plays first if Casis needs a day off or, God forbid, gets hurt if we don't have Turner? What if Duran regresses to where he was before this year? Duvall is insurance against that happening and to help against left-handed hitters. We need to spend a lot of money on starting pitching as you suggest and I expect we will be over the limit next year anyway. Give Turner and Duvall what they want to come back on 1 year contracts. Play Story at short and hopefully Rafaela and Duran in center which pushes Duvall to a corner spot when he plays. I also believe Devers entering his prime should see some uptick on offense. The blackhole at 2B should also see an improvement wether its Reyes or Urias or an combination of the two. I still think the offense without Turner could have a basement that approximates this years offense but with a ceiling slightly better for the reasons previously stated. And as previously stated the defense will be better and so will the SP with the focus on spending primarily focused on SP. Your right regarding Duvall, I said bring him back if the price is right. Obviously everything has a price where it eventually makes no sense however he'd also serve as insurance against Rafaela so we need to get him or someone else that's similar back. As good as Turner has been for us this year I'm not sure how anyone can surmise at his age, 39 next year, he won't drop off a cliff? He's overdue. His potential loss of offense is somewhat offset by Yoshi no longer in LF more than once a week which in turn should help him not wear down and improve his offense, that and another year experience. I'm also counting on Casas and Story improving their offense from this year. Remember we had Kiké in CF so even his bottom on offense should be at least as good as Kiké was this year but his defense should be a huge upgrade and he does have offensive upside too. I'm not willing to bet which way his offense sways but look forward to finding out.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 4, 2023 10:21:21 GMT -5
This team knows how to develop bats, but not pitching. Why would we go invest more in a bat that makes our need for pitching sure to put us over the luxury tax for a decade? Generally speaking that's been true however the roster has several farm grown arms playing for the team lead by Brayan Bello and I'm excited to see Wikelman Gonzalez whose had a great breakout year and may be up by the end of next season. That said I would like the Sox to add 2 starting pitchers to the team; a front end starter and a mid rotation starter. Sign one, there actually is a surprising # of SP1 & SP2's and trade for another. Verdugo and one of the prospects that's outside the top 5 should be able to get a mid-rotation starter whose cost would be mostly offset by Verdugos salary. It's all inter-related regarding the line-up and starting rotation. Starting Rotation: 1.Free agent signing www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/. 2. Brayan Bello 3. Trade. 4. Chris Sale (he's to unreliable at this point to list him higher and call it a defendable plan, 5. Crawford. The line-up is similar to last year with a few differences. 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L), where his range is not used to it's potential but they play just as many games on the road and his defense is an improvement on Yoshi almost by default. Will his OBP be enough to justify lead-off?, his speed certainly will. 2. SS-Story (R) is hopefully a healthy Story's until Myers arrives however that is starting to look like at least 2 years away. It would be nice to see his #'s reflect something in the proximity of his last season in Colorada (.251/329/47) 24HR-20SB, 4.2 War. 3. 3B-Devers (L) I have no expectations regarding improved D so if we have to live with it he can for a few seasons during his prime years at least approach his lofty 2019 season. 4. 1B-Casas (L)- I do have higher expectation that he can get his D close enough to average to where it's not an issue and the bat can at least replicate this season without the dreadful April involved. I do think there is a very good chance he makes the jump next season to be a #4 type hitter because of the advanced approach he has at the plate, rarely swinging his bat at ball outside the strike zone, expectations should be high for him. His OPS, .862 is already the 16th best among qualified batters, thinking top 10 and an OPS above .900 is not unreasonable. 5. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L), limiting him to playing in the field one a week (the day before a natural off day) should keep him from wearing down as well as keep the bench sharper. And while he would only play LF w/ Durran in LF you would be able to rotate throughout the rest of the outfield giving each spot an extra day off every 3 weeks the day before a scheduled day off, keeping everyone fresh but I digress to much. I think expecting Yoshi to slightly improve as he learns the league some more and what he can expect on and off the field is a realistic expectation. 6. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) who as recently as 2021 had a .789 OPS season with 49 XBH including 23 HR's not bad for a middle infielder. 7. RF-Wilyer Abreu (L) his approach and control of the strike zone plays up. Possible platoon with Duvall (R) if the Price is Right. 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) like his speed with Durran and Story back to back to back a few times a game to put pressure on the other sides defense and pitching and with the heart of the order more likely to see fastballs. Batting Rafaele 9th takes alot of pressure of him, and yet it could also fuel him too. Should he struggle some, which I'd totally expect for any rookie, batting ninth makes it more viable to stick with him long enough until he figures it out. Turner is not listed here. He'll be 39 years old its shocking he has not gone off a cliff yet, but how realistic is it to expect the other shoe to not drop at any time?. It's his option so I thank him for his services and hope he moves on and we take that money and put it toward SP. He'll I wouldn't be against even adding a third SP to the team, maybe an older former ace on a large one year deal? and after 2024 Wikelman has a chance to step in. The defense up the middle would be strong, the OF defense is strong, we'd only be weak at the IF corners. The offense takes a small hit but the pitching and defense is much stronger which should help the bullpen too. The Sox still owe alot of defered money; 2023- $22,444,333, but that drops way down to $740,000 for 2024 & $760,000 for 2025. Chris Sale's I believe comes off the books after 2024 if the Sox don't exercise the club option of $20M for 2025, and I don't see that happening, unless I don't understand it the way I think I do. The will be paying him deferred money come 2035 but that is another story. Both Manny and Pedria are owed over $2M thru 2026 and Dustin's final year is 2027. Alot of old money is coming off the books soon. The CBT for 2024 is $237,000,000 and the Sox right now for 2024 sit at Est. Tax Payroll (Active + Est. Arb + Est. Pre-Arb) $159,780,185, so even if they spent $50 to $60 million on 2 SP's they'd stay well below the threshold and should contend with a much deeper and improved starting rotation, a better bullpen due to a lesser workload, better defense and a slightly worse offense. This would be a much better balanced team for 2024 AND it would be set up to clear even more off the books, while still being well below the CBT just when the steady stream of prospects becomes a better flow in 2025. After 2024 they can step back, re-evaulate and re-assess the team weakness and sign or trade for the RH bat the team needs in lieu of the overwhelming left handesness of it.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 4, 2023 8:24:42 GMT -5
It's not about making stuff up, it's about what the source is and did he actually even try to verify it. As in it comes from someone on Chiefs versus someone on Patriots. Everything is about clicks and getting those. Back in the day people wouldn't write a report based on one unnamed source, today that 75% of the news. Ben Volin went on WEEI last year and impugned Mac Jones reputation based on a fake anonymous DM that he never vetted. He was so thirsty to be relevant and "in the know." These guys are not our friends. They are peddlers. In some cases misinformation sells as well, or better, than information, so that's what they peddle. I avoid many of them, best I can. I don't learn anything about sport from them so who needs the aggravation? I don't mean to smear all of them Some are earnest. Mike Reiss, Evan Lazar come to mind. The Mass Live guys seem okay. Phil Perry straddles the line between media personality & beat reporter. We live in an era where first is far far more important than accuracy. It's true in national mainstream news as well wether it's CNN or Fox, they cannot be depended upon for sharing any accuracies or truth. I'm confused why the last sentence is even a debateable point. Sports reporting merely reflects reporting at large hot takes/click bait truth be dammed.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 3, 2023 11:08:06 GMT -5
Never read the new rules on this before. So Red Sox will lose a year of control with Casas if he is in the top 2 for Rookie of the year. Would think it will make it more beneficial to try and lock him up for a long-term deal this off season if that were to happen. I'd never do that. You want to see at least 2 years of performance, prep, training and adjustments made. I'm sure most clubs think the same as they have the leverage. This was negotiated by MLBPA, so to offset the lost year of arbitration, the extra pick is there to offset that. It's a good plan that benefits both sides really win win.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 3, 2023 11:03:17 GMT -5
I am getting greedy in Portland. Send me Anthony (and Teel). Very excited to see him in person. Check on the projected rosters, at this web site, for next years Portland team, it's down right dirty filthy with prospects.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 2, 2023 9:34:55 GMT -5
Sox now have seven outfielders and the one who is untouchable is Cedanne. Mookie 2? Maybe not but that’s a pretty big standard. How about JBJ at his best? In a related topic, I keep Duvall at a good price and package any one or two of the others for starting pitching. But unless Cedanne proves a bust, he could be the CF for years to come. My expectation is that his floor is JBJ and I realize he may not even be that. I'd be content with a JBJ type career with the peak being his AS season. I hope and believe he has a chance to be better and I don't expect to see another Mookie in my lifetime.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 1, 2023 15:03:39 GMT -5
With 30 games left you are pointing out the difference between .541 WP verse .533, you do understand how moot that is it's less than 1 one over a hundred games and we are taking about 30 games left. Cling to straws all you want but acknowledge that is what your are doing as the season effectively ended when they split with Houston last week. Again, the split raised our odds of making the playoffs. It did not end the season; if you feel that way after that series, you should think the season was already over at the start of that series. 17% is not clutching at straws. It is a real chance. Around one in six. Winning this series against Houston probably would have raised those odds again, and we would have had an even more realistic shot. Now it's more like 7%, and personally I've given up on the playoffs. The first game of this series was demoralizing enough that it killed all of the fun I was having with this stretch run. Not even sure if I can bring myself to watch much, but maybe I just need a little break. There is always next year. The future is bright and I think we are one or two years away from being a perennial playoff team/contender at least. I thought the team was a 85 win team that would actually contend until a month to go which it appears the blind squirrel here is finding its nut. As unrealistic as it was to think we could take 3 of 4 in Houston I felt we truly had to in order to make the push at least last into the final week of the season, for all the reasons I stated over 10 games ago. It was just to deep a hole created by the team not to make the stand then and there. Better health and better starting pitching next year will go a long way.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 29, 2023 22:25:31 GMT -5
You could argue that but you completely missed the point. I mentioned that time is big factor and merely playing well is not enough and that in order to make the playoffs they'd need to go on a tear and not just split series nor gain 1.6% after a series. Counting LA they have 11 series left, so by your measure of satisfaction they'd be out in the cold but they'd increase their chances to around 34%. But even that ignored the fact that the Red Sox have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Sorry I'm not seeing any logic at all here. We are going to need better than a split in most other series. That was a very good team that we played on the road, though. That road series in Houston was probably the second hardest series remaining on the schedule, along with the road series in Baltimore to close out the year. A split was a fine result. Probability also doesn't work like that; it'll end at 100% or 0% no matter what. If we raise the percentage every series we are guaranteed to make the playoffs. We no longer have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season because we just finished six games against Houston and LAD. It is now 5th hardest. It has dropped from a .541 average opposing winning percentage to a .533. We'll probably be down to ~8th hardest with an average opposing win percentage in the mid .520s after this homestand. Our schedule is hard in large part because of this HOU/LAD/HOU stretch; the average opponent we'll face is weaker than HOU or LAD. After today it's 5 games against Tampa, 7 games against Baltimore, 9 games against teams (HOU, TEX, TOR) we're directly competing for a wild card spot with (which we want regardless of their winning percentage since it's a good opportunity to make up ground...and Texas is awful right now), and 10 games against bad teams (KC, CWS, NYY). Tampa has played .500 ball since June 8th and they're now down Franco, McClanahan, and others, so despite their .603 winning percentage and dominance against us this year those should be winnable games. Baltimore is the only great non-Wild Card opponent left on the schedule, and there's actually reason for optimism there too. First of all, 4 of the 7 games we have left with them are the last four games of the year. No guarantees of course, but if Baltimore has enough cushion for playoff seeding they could rest some regulars in that series. Also their closer Bautista is now injured; no clue when he's expected back, but if he's out for some of our games against them that would be a lift in the late innings. So, there are plenty of opportunities to win games and make up ground going forward. Obviously 3/4 or 4/4 would have been great, but we did what we had to do in Houston. With 30 games left you are pointing out the difference between .541 WP verse .533, you do understand how moot that is it's less than 1 one over a hundred games and we are taking about 30 games left. Cling to straws all you want but acknowledge that is what your are doing as the season effectively ended when they split with Houston last week.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 27, 2023 17:51:49 GMT -5
I don’t think you’re breaking any news to anybody when you say “time is a factor” Salvaging a split in that series was huge. Sure the odds remain long, but they would have been basically 0 if they decided to collapse instead. The split may have felt good considering they lost the last two, but they dug themselves a hole, and even though a split was reasonable in these circumstances they needed the unreasonable three for it to have mattered. It was putting themselves in the same sitation with 4 less games to go, not good.
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