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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 27, 2023 6:09:57 GMT -5
I hate to be a Debby Downer because despite the warm fuzzies we all have from the last 2 games. We sit in the same situation with Houston as we did when the series started EXCEPT 4 more games have passed and we are chasing 2 teams not one which makes it exponentially harder. Houston still wins the series because they knocked 4 more games off the schedule. Speaking of schedules we have the hardest strength of schedule left of any team in baseball and all of the teams we are chasing are in the middle of the pack or lower. We can't play well we have to go on a tear. This series simply punted the ball down the field, someone had to win the series for it to have really meant anything. If we won it, the series would have been a two-game swing and we'd be in the thick of it with some momentum, and if we lost we'd be on the ropes. I hate to over-emphasize one game or series but at this time of year with 5 weeks left and the position we are in......... I would argue that splitting a road series at Houston puts us in a good position to pick up the tiebreaker against them with a series win at home. Our Fangraphs playoff odds actually rose 1.6% over the course of the series. Yes, Toronto and Texas struggling factored in, but we're in a better position with this series in the books. You could argue that but you completely missed the point. I mentioned that time is big factor and merely playing well is not enough and that in order to make the playoffs they'd need to go on a tear and not just split series nor gain 1.6% after a series. Counting LA they have 11 series left, so by your measure of satisfaction they'd be out in the cold but they'd increase their chances to around 34%. But even that ignored the fact that the Red Sox have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Sorry I'm not seeing any logic at all here.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2023 8:29:53 GMT -5
Looking at this a bit more broadly and with an eye to 2025, they'll need to fix the defense at several positions. Using the DH spot each day for one of Yoshi, Casas and Devers would be a big step. They'll have Mayer at SS and while he may struggle at the plate early in his RY, his defense should be at least average, which is a lot better than we've gotten for most of this year; Story will be at 2B (at least that's my assumption), which gives you elite D there; and little Raffy will be GG caliber in the OF. Having those three in the field each day and a competent defender subbing in for one of Yoshi, Casas or Devers is a significant upgrade. It's also reasonable to hope Casas will be better by then. With Yoshi and Devers, I think we just have to live with the bad defense. It's appearing that news of Mayer's ETA may be a bit pre-mature and I would not be surprised if it's actually late 2025 instead of late 2024. Wether it's due to injuries or he hit a bump on the road at AA or both it appears his arrival might be a bit delayed. I've not heard this discussed.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2023 8:24:28 GMT -5
I am pretty into the idea of giving Yoshida away this offseason. Don't think I want a 4 year commitment to a DH on a team with Casas and Devers. I'm sure Casas will remain at first base throughout his arbitration years yet your point is still valid and a concern I share as well going forward. Obviously defense has been an issue even acknowledging that several injuries exasperated the problem. I think Devers is going to stay at third for a while but for how long, 3 years? sooner if he doesn't improve? It seems like Turner may decide to stay with the Sox next year AND we suddenly have to many OF positional players (Yoshida, Duran, Duval, Verdugo, Refsnyder, Rafaela and Abreu) especially if Abreu is the real deal as he wasn't even on any of our radars until a very short time ago. I think it's nearly certain at least one OF'er is traded. I'm going with Verdugo, likey as part of a bigger deal (perhaps with a prospect) to acquire starting pitching. Duval is a free agent and while I'd love to see him back I think he'll end up going somewhere else. Due to logistics one (or both) of Abreu and Rafaela could end up starting the season down in the minors until injuries come into play. I think Yoshida is our LF again next year unless Turner opts out. Then the following season Yoshida becomes the DH and we may see an OF of Abreu, Rafaela and Duran by 2025. That's a nice young OF group with defense, speed, and some power too, all on the cheap and we have top prospect, Anthony, that won't be too far away at that point either. OF is now a stregth of the orginization for several years to come so much so that it will afford Yoshida to become a DH soon enough and he's not a bad option (not good either) to back-up left field for a few games here and there . I'd be very surprised if Yoshida is traded and Verdugo is not.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2023 7:52:29 GMT -5
It's a fair point, but then again, when I was in my early 20s I would do a lot of stuff that I now, at almost 30, would consider fatiguing Just wait another ten years. Or 20
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2023 7:37:40 GMT -5
I hate to be a Debby Downer because despite the warm fuzzies we all have from the last 2 games. We sit in the same situation with Houston as we did when the series started EXCEPT 4 more games have passed and we are chasing 2 teams not one which makes it exponentially harder. Houston still wins the series because they knocked 4 more games off the schedule. Speaking of schedules we have the hardest strength of schedule left of any team in baseball and all of the teams we are chasing are in the middle of the pack or lower. We can't play well we have to go on a tear. This series simply punted the ball down the field, someone had to win the series for it to have really meant anything. If we won it, the series would have been a two-game swing and we'd be in the thick of it with some momentum, and if we lost we'd be on the ropes. I hate to over-emphasize one game or series but at this time of year with 5 weeks left and the position we are in.........
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2023 7:00:43 GMT -5
Kinda want them to bring back Blake I definitely do. I don't follow the NBA, just focus on the Celtics but he seemed like a great teammate liked by all, an older veterant who was a teamplayer and despite not getting much playing time played well whenever called upon. What was not to like?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 23, 2023 20:41:45 GMT -5
When he’s slumping he loses WAR real fast cause of the defense and position. He was on pace to beat the contract (easily if you use $10M, more narrowly if you use $8.3) and then the last two weeks happened and he lost like .7 WAR. Reading your last statement it seems like it would just be very obvious to wait until the end of the year to discuss it because one streak could make all this speculation moot yet again.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 22, 2023 21:18:35 GMT -5
The ball just clipped the edge. Painful, but it is what it is. Astros TV feed had it not touching the zone. I assume Savant's zone is more accurate so good pitch I guess Nope, NESN showed it off the plate, close but no cigar.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 22, 2023 21:15:57 GMT -5
Seriously the past week it seems like every bad call is against us, making me feel paranoid.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 20, 2023 15:20:58 GMT -5
Yeah he was out and the ump of course calls him safe. The league does want the Yankees alive, EVERY call is one way. The ump was blocked.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 20, 2023 13:18:59 GMT -5
It's a difficult upcoming schedule, but maybe we are catching the Astros at the right time? Seattle's been embarrassing them in their series. The next ten games after today is against some of the tops teams, they need to win at least 4 and I'm not expecting anymore than 5. In a week in a half hopefully it ends up being the furthest we are out of the wildcard chase. I'd love to be wrong and surprised.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 20, 2023 13:12:04 GMT -5
For the love of God, do they even have an ounce of shame. God awful.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 19, 2023 15:17:52 GMT -5
Those were consecutive plate appearances? I did not realize that. They said it was actually consecutive pitches.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 19, 2023 14:38:16 GMT -5
Am I crazy or are there a weird amount of catchers interferences this year? I was literally just thinking the same exact thing. Some game a while back they mentioned that. The claim was catchers are being taught to steal pitches and are crowding the plate more than ever before. I'm sure batters on average are sitting further back in the box too.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 19, 2023 13:35:40 GMT -5
I get that the Yankees suck, but I’m completely fine with Crawford as my 4/5 starter for the 2024 season. Was just thinking that. We're watching a ML P today. Not a great one, but a pretty good one. He came into today with a 121 ERA-plus. His FIP and xFIP are a bit higher and he's benefitted from BABIP luck, but I'm comfortable with him in a rotation. There in lies the rub, I'd be much more comfortable with him as my 5, no knock on him, than my 4, it means the rotation is that much better. We'll likely need 2 SP added/kept during the offseason.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 19, 2023 13:23:08 GMT -5
I just turned on the game what happened to Cassas, they said dental emergency did he get hit with the ball?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 18, 2023 16:09:11 GMT -5
You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. I don’t think it’s so simple. They have a good offense. There is some talented pitching. They also have pretty much the worst defense you will ever see at the major league level. Turner, Yoshida, Devers and Casas are all very good hitters but terrible defenders. Durran isn’t great in center. The Shortstops have largely been been terrible. Second basemen haven’t been much better. You can survive with a couple of bad defenders, but this… How many more years will Devers survive at third? Yoshida in left? This is a problem that's head will rear itself before too long and Turner is around for another year too. We may have 3 DH's by next year with2 in disguise.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 17, 2023 22:41:02 GMT -5
Go with a (healthy?) Story at shortstop until Mayer. As for second base, cobble things together with the names mentioned. Or, sign a guy to a one-year deal... but don't get locked into any deal that would block rising prospects. Am I the only one starting to wonder if Mayer is going to take more time down on the farm then is being projected?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 15, 2023 23:33:57 GMT -5
Hot updated but not acerage.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 6, 2023 13:36:05 GMT -5
About to drop 7 of 8, this week has sucked.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 6, 2023 13:32:41 GMT -5
We all just need to reset expectations. With the new TV deal coming in 2025 (just one year into Brown's new deal), $60M AAV deals are going to be the new normal for star-level players. With all that’s going on in the world, the absurdity of $60m/yr sports contracts is just going to drive people away from the sport and away from sports in general. Which sucks. And it’s too bad. But the ‘new normal’ is appalling even for a fan of the team so I’ll spend my time and $$$ elsewhere. People have been saying that since Jim Rice made a million, there was a whole sports illustrated issue about it, but it wasn't true then and isn't true today.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 6, 2023 13:29:17 GMT -5
Even Bogaerts struggled when they brought him up and put him on the playoff roster in 2013, and he was a super prospect. Nearly everyone struggles when they first come up, even future MVP's. It's extremely rare to flourish right off the bat, Doc Gooden and Fernando Mania are two rare exceptions. I've paraphrased Ted Williams many times and repeated this phrase several times here, 'never judge a batter until he's had 1,000 at-bats and pitchers (starters) 500 IP'. This used to be basically 2 season. I'd knock the pitching down to 300 IP today.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 2, 2023 23:32:05 GMT -5
We need more right handed bats in general, and there isn’t much impactful on the FA market which makes Turner as good as gone and the FA market not much of an option. Yoshida can just go to DH but then there is the open LF spot and then duran and Verdugo seem very redundant as players. I think I’m trading duran for a young good SP like a Woo type from the Mainers. I only say this because his BABIP is definitely going to regress and that scares me with him Trading Houck for a good right handed outfielder of equal control. Bringing up Rafaela. Then deciding what is best to do with Verdugo. Durran's speed is going to lead to a higher than normal BABIP, and yes I too would expect a slight regression but likely with a higher BABIP than Steamer ect is project for ROS on Fangraphs, therefore I think your are over stating this point and that alone is not a reason to trade him. He's not even arbitration eligible yet. Verdugo would be a better candidate as he's a more known quantity. There is likely a good reason he was suggested as trade candidate this recent deadline. Maybe add in one of our prospects from outside the top 5, to help land a solid SP, ideally one that has at least 2 seasons of arbitration left. The achilles heal of the team going forward is SP (and I wouldn't even count on Sale either regardless of how he looks when/if he comes back this season. We need at least one front end SP and maybe a back end one too. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Houck are all candidates. Sale should be seen as a depth piece going forward or your sixth starter otherwise your building in an excuse for failure. Whatever we get from him is house money. Here is a list of SP free agents for next year, www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/ there are many interesting options. Rafaela has a good chance to break camp with the team next year (and if not at least at some point during next season his HR and 4 walks in a game tonight is a great sign) and be our starting CF. Durran could play RF, as it's allways good at Fenway to have 2 CF'er types manning CF and RF. Yoshi can play LF again or be our DH most of the time should Turner use his player option. Hopefully Turner is back in the fold as our DH. I think with all the MI candidates (Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Chang (where is Mondesi? FA in 24 nevermind) we have and top MI prospects getting closer to Boston they won't bother looking for a second baseman in the offseason. Story is likely to slide back to secondbase by 2025 anyway if/when Mayer arrives, here on this site it projects late 2024 which maybe forecasting a roster expansion Sept. call-up. Probably a good call, we'll see.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 30, 2023 19:31:56 GMT -5
They lost this series they'll win the next in Seattle. If they won it, they would've lost vs the Mariners... It's been like this all year long. Dam near ever year of your life it's like that. Even when your right and of course we all remember that as being the vast majority of the time, it's often for reasons that have nothing to do with what you said it would.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 30, 2023 9:22:59 GMT -5
It's not the Patriots that are the issue, it's RB thinking playing hardball will somehow get them paid. Zeke is coming off a down year, he needs the right opportunity more than more money or his career could be over rather quick. Just ask Bell how quickly it can happen. The Patriots are a great fit and way to go Mac Jones going the extra mile to make it happen. At 3.8 y/c last year and over 8K total yards on his odometer, how much tread is left on the tires? I'd think there is cheaper alternates that can provide the same.
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