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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 25, 2023 20:20:20 GMT -5
Who wants the human factor calling games good grief 5 staight balls 2 called strikes
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2023 10:22:39 GMT -5
Curious which, if any, of these national rankings affect the rankings here at soxprospects. It’s clear to me that the site follows the Red Sox system much closer than the (K) Law, for example, but I also imagine it’s difficult to ignore a consensus among superlative national writers. Said differently, should Anthony be #2? Is the site too low on Bonacci? Is Blaze nothing more than good for marketing? I get that all “rankings” are subjective, and ultimately, a relative shot in the dark (Vazquez was consistently ranked well below Swihart, for example; Mookie was not highly regarded at all up until his unmistakeable rise; and, what happened to Lars Anderson?), but does the voice of a guy like Keith Law change the view of the group who publishes the rankings on this site? Not at all, at least in the sense that we don't base where we rank someone on where someone else does. Now, would someone I respect's opinion as written in their writeup of the system potentially get me to take another look at a guy? Of course. Hell, Jim said that he does that with our stuff when he was on the pod this week. But seeing even, say, Jim or Alex rank a guy somewhere doesn't factor in - again, for the sole reason of them doing that - to how I rank them. I'm sure it's the same for all 4 of us. And fwiw, I don't think I'm saying anything surprising when I say we're almost certainly going to have Anthony #2 next month. Re-ranking monthly means 2 things for us in how we approach the updates: (1) we attempt, as much as possible, to avoid yo-yoing guys up and down, because I think that would be terrible both in terms of how legitimate a given ranking is and how it would look optically, but at the same time, (2) it gives us the luxury of slowly moving a guy up or down over time and trying on how they look in a spot. I think about a week after the July rankings went up we all kind of wished we were a bit more aggressive with Anthony, but I know I'm OK with the process that'll get him there. Trust the process, if it works the majority of the time. Develop a system and observe how it does. Think of ways to tweak the system for minor improvements. I think yo-yoing players would take alot of credence away from the rankings and you guys overall do a great job with the rankings. Updating it every month during the season seams like a lot of work though. If you did it at the thirds or even quarter bench marks of the season as checkpoints I think it would still be very effective and less work for you as well. Fodder for thought.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2023 10:13:05 GMT -5
He's loved Teel for a long time, so that's not super shocking. Bonaci is certainly a surprise. He talked about Bleis in a podcast today from the Athletic. Basically a lost year and other guys jumped over him. Fair or not he's lost a year of development and should certainly drop if for no other reason than that and in addition several players in our system ranked near him have had good to great years.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2023 9:54:06 GMT -5
I could be wrong but you hear about teams sending the faxes by the deadline. Tell me they don't actually still use faxes?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 22, 2023 14:36:42 GMT -5
Paxton won the AL pitcher of the Month for June and deserved it. It would not be hard at all to make a case for Bello being runner up for that honor. He has arrived ! It's extremely rare for pitcher to succeed so quicky. I know people hate the cherry picking game but if it's someones first start of the season and they were delayed starting the season for any reason or a player goes on the DL list the next start after a bad one, there SHOULD be some exceptions. Bello for the most part has pitched like an All Star from his last x amount of starts last seasonto now and it's close to his first full calender year. I'm not comparing him to anyone else but very few pitchers with instant success come to mind, after all Ted Williams said not to jusge a pitcher until he's thrown 500 IP, back in the day that was about 2 full seasons and that part still rings true even if the innings may not. Doc Gooden and Fernanda Valenzuela are some of the only pitchers I can think off having so much success so soon.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 22, 2023 12:46:39 GMT -5
A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter. I was saying this last year and was informed he does not have plate discipline. While there are certain things to keep an eye out for regarding evaluating minor league hitters, keep in mind that it is merely a rule, a good rule, but not written in stone. When certain batters continue to hit well and exceed at each level you have to consider they may not follow the same path as most when it comes to predicting future sucess. There is one other player I'd say that applies to however his defense makes his basement lower than Rafaela's and that would be B. Jordan. I was told he chases to much, perhaps he does but he too simply succeeds at each level he's at and considering he's the same age and level as Mayer. That's not to suggest a comparison between the two but merely to remind others how much success he's had despite playing with others who on average are a few years older than he is. I think that just may carry more weight than someone who chases a slight amount more than what he is supposed to. I was glad to see Rafael get some love and move into the top ten about a year ago I think it's time Blaze joins him, even if it's at the 10 spot, as his defense limits his ceiling too. It's nice to have an interesting farm system again, there is hope on the horizon and the stream started with Bello and Cassas.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 16, 2023 9:27:45 GMT -5
Roman homers again! I know he's incredibly young for High A and he's only been there for a couple of weeks. I also know that everyone says that there's no chance he goes to AA this year. But is there any recent precedent for a Sox prospect to rise that fast? How many levels did Mookie move up in one year? Click on the homepage here and on the right hand column is a link to Ex-players click on that find Mookie and viola. Before 2013 he stayed at whatever level he was at for the year. In 2013 he played at A and High A, and 2014 split about a third of a year with AA, AAA and Boston. His OPS at AA and AAA was above .900 and stayed above .800 with Boston.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 11, 2023 22:56:14 GMT -5
yeah, this sucks. Tatum is not a hundred percent so what is the rest of their excuses? Brown would have helped the Celts by riding the bench. Tatum is being such a baby. I just hate the built in excuses. Butler’s ankle was a grapefruit in the last series. Haven't posted much lately saw this in notifications. Brogden was out, White end up out early in game due to injuries, a third player I can't recall was out and Tatum was a shell of himself but Butler has more gumption according to you based on what exactly? Nothing? Sorry 4 key guys out or hurt for a game seven is not execuses no matter how much you attempt to make that the narrative it was the reality of the situation and no words change that fact.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 11, 2023 17:04:40 GMT -5
First of all, I apologize for my slight jab at you earlier. I have a few points to make: 1. I think judging by Yoshida’s and Story’s contract, Chaim isn’t afraid to spend money, but he only spends it on players they really like. So if they really like Yamamoto, I can see them going all out, potentially to 200 mil. 2. The reason I think we will outbid other teams for Yamamoto (or any other FA starters), is because they can and probably will go over the luxury tax next season. We have about 50 mil to spend this offseason, and if you look at the team, the offense won’t change up much, other than the bench. So that leaves all that money for potentially 1-2 really good starters. 3. The reason the Mets and Padres have been bad, is because they don’t have good depth. The Red Sox’s depth on the other hand, is only going to get deeper, with multiple top prospects potentially being ready next year. Hell, we survived a first half when 5 shortstops and 4 starters got hurt, if that’s not good depth I don’t know what is. 4. I’m here to tell you, Yamamoto IS that .01 percent. Ignore all the physical stuff with Yamamoto, if I told you a guy has a sub-2 ERA over 818 innings in his career in a league better than AAA, you would think he’s the number 1 prospect in the game. Also, unlike Dice-K, Yamamoto wasn’t highly touted coming out of high school, meaning he didnt have the insane workload of a typical high school ace in Japan. He also didn’t pitch much early in his career, so his arm has much less workload on it compared to when Dice-K, Tanaka, or even Yu Darvish came over. 5. Other than Tanaka’s insane 2013 season before he came to MLB, Yamamoto has been better than all three of those Japanese legends. So he is less worn down and better than three of the best Japanese pitchers in history (compared to when they were 25 years old, of course) Now this is a good response, Story was a very very solid signing at 6 years 140. Still has yet to prove that but I think he was just like Teel in the draft. Needed a RHH middle infield was a a need and boom this guy signs for a very responsible price. 150+ deals are just so scary to me unless they are young home grown all stars. Bloom is the type of GM that puts a value on every player and that’s why we’re always interested because at the right price why not. That worked for Story and Masa. Again 5/6 year deal 18-23 mill. 8 years and 25 mill would blow me away from Bloom. Not saying it’s impossible but these 150+ mill dollar deals have a HORRIBLE track record. I prefer deals under 150 unless we’re talking Ohtani. If you want to cap your ceiling at good then you never take chances. If you want to be great then you have to take some hi reward hi risk chances occasionally. I'm speaking in general here, as I don't know enough about Yamamoto to get into the particulars here.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 4, 2023 8:42:11 GMT -5
I’m going to avoid the drama of this offseason. Here’s how I see it going: 1. Lots of BS rumors from frustrated fans and writers who have a job to do about Jaylen being traded…. He’s not. 2. Brown will sign a super max extension which makes JT happy and keeps the team together. 3. No big trades will be made 4. Pritchard will be dealt. 5. They’ll draft a guy at 35 6. They’ll probably add a big man for depth and maybe a wing. 7. The will add a couple experienced assistant coaches. Mostly the same team will return. Mazzula was thrown into the job right before camp and his top assistant left towards the end of the year. The offseason is going to be mostly boring with actual moves but the chatter will be loud. They should stay the course with this group. Don’t tell me a 24 and 26 year old have maxed out. I generally agree with this albeit I would not be surprised to see one of Smart or Brogdon traded, for a true point guard who can guide the offense against top defenses.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 21:26:51 GMT -5
White flag just went up - Sam Hauser. yeah, this sucks. Tatum is not a hundred percent so what is the rest of their excuses? Brown would have helped the Celts by riding the bench. Edit: Brogdan also has an excuse. Duncan and his punk ass discretely held his hand to his ear. Tough guy if your are going to do it, do it. Him and Lowry are easy to hate on.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 21:17:11 GMT -5
Brown has been terrible, 6 of 18. Also five turnovers. And even another one, it's like hes an imbeded Heat.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 21:08:04 GMT -5
Brown has been terrible, 6 of 18.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 21:02:32 GMT -5
Was White called for a travel when his feet slide forward an inch because I did not see 3 steps otherwise?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 20:31:09 GMT -5
Adebayo has 3 fouls I would go right at him early third. Get him a quick foul and have him ride the bench for most of the third. We will and have to shoot better.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 20:22:06 GMT -5
A ref with a known short-fuse is doing game 7? We have to start getting stops and that was a block by Rob.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 17:18:11 GMT -5
Maybe the most under-rated Sox prospect. I'm guessing scouts don't like his body type but all he does is keep hitting. Copied from the Mayer thread. For what it's worth, in April, he had one of the highest chase rates and lowest pitches per PA average in the system. I'm curious to see how that looks after another month though. Thanks for sharing that. Now I understand at least why everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop. He may be the exception to the rule but the ranking makes alot more sense to me know. Edit: Shame on me, I know when he was drafted he was kind of a doughy body and not what scouts crave so I assumed that was the reason. I didn't do my homework.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 8:28:54 GMT -5
Man I was out last night, caught the game on the Radio, from the last few minutues of the third until there was 7 minutes left in the game and caught the rest on TV, the internet connection was down and I just read the last few pages from last night, just crazy crazy. I too thought it was odd that they reviewed that play , even odder that the first replay clearly shows Butler shoved Tatum in the back, all the replays after that started the replay just after Butler pushed Tatum in the back and NONE of the announcers caught it either. Just glad as hell we won. I loved the final 3 seconds with Smart's shot which really looked like it was going in and even hit the rim three times which caused Tatum's attempt at a put back to be miss timed otherwise he had it, but also White crashing the board to and I just hope it's remembered like when Bird stole the inbound pass to a cutting to the net DJ. Incredible play, and if they win a title it will go down as an historic play for sure. But old man yelling at cloud moment- no, it doesn't rank with the Bird/Havlicek steals. I'm on the back nine myself and if they win it this year it certainly does. Henderson also had a big steal. I went back and watched the end of the game this morning. Jimmy Butler hit 2 shots in the final five minutes BUT they awarded him 10 free throws between 3:51 and .03 second left in the game. Absurd.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 8:16:04 GMT -5
Shouldn’t Jordan also be promoted? Maybe the most under-rated Sox prospect. I'm guessing scouts don't like his body type but all he does is keep hitting.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 29, 2023 8:07:21 GMT -5
Mayer has now played 47 games in Greenville dating back to last year and he has slashed .286/.386/.479 over 233 PAs, good for a 133 wRC+. This year alone he's slashing .309/.393/.511 with a 140 wRC+ which includes his first week where he struggled. Since 4/15 he's at .365/.434/.595, a 171 wRC+, with a 18% K rate and 10% BB rate. Is a promotion to Portland in the cards any time soon if he keeps crushing A+ pitching? I think they just promoted him
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 28, 2023 10:31:23 GMT -5
Its still crazy to think about how badly the Yankees collapsed in 04, blowing two straight saves and then losing game 6 against an injured pitcher and then getting shut out at home in game 7 to a guy who has an ERA of almost 5.50. My favorite memory of game 7 after the Sox jumped to a lead and the camera panned the bleachers in NY and I saw IT. The look of despair carved into their fans faces ,i knew that look, recognized it in our own faces far to many times and man did I experience schadenfreude in that moment. The demons had been stricken. Joy was back in Mudville.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 28, 2023 10:24:25 GMT -5
Obviously you expect Jimmy and Bam to play better in game 7, but you have to love that they pulled this one off despite shooting 20% from 3, letting the Heat shoot 47% from 3, got out rebounded and committed 7 more turnovers than the Heat It just doesn't add up does it? But yet they found a way, a will, to win despite all of that. I think most of the pressure now falls to Miami. Before last nights game I thought this (game 6) was Miami's game 7 and it was going to be real close and thought it could easily go either way, ( I had no idea how right I'd be) but that if we got to game seven I'd bet solid money on Boston. We are the fourth team to make our way into game 7 waters after being down 3 to none. First team to do it in a generation (20 years) too, BUT we are the first of the four to have that game 7 at home. For the love of Pete, let's hope that makes all the difference.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 28, 2023 10:11:37 GMT -5
Can you believe they reviewed that!!!! Man I was out last night, caught the game on the Radio, from the last few minutues of the third until there was 7 minutes left in the game and caught the rest on TV, the internet connection was down and I just read the last few pages from last night, just crazy crazy. I too thought it was odd that they reviewed that play , even odder that the first replay clearly shows Butler shoved Tatum in the back, all the replays after that started the replay just after Butler pushed Tatum in the back and NONE of the announcers caught it either. Just glad as hell we won. I loved the final 3 seconds with Smart's shot which really looked like it was going in and even hit the rim three times which caused Tatum's attempt at a put back to be miss timed otherwise he had it, but also White crashing the board to and I just hope it's remembered like when Bird stole the inbound pass to a cutting to the net DJ.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 25, 2023 21:25:02 GMT -5
Amazing to see coach Joe realize how fast his team can fall into bad habits. Using his timeouts well. That is at least 3 timely time outs tonight. Each of of them was when the defense seemed to lag. Great to see, all around very good game by everyone??
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Post by jodyreidnichols on May 25, 2023 21:12:38 GMT -5
How the heck did Pat Riley turn Caleb Martin into Carmelo Anthony? Butler is getting all the credit but Martin so far is the Heat MVP.
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