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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 18:46:30 GMT -5
Oh I don’t think he’s being coerced or misled or anything. But his agent and frankly the Angels front office ought to do the morally right thing and encourage him to shut it down for the season.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 18:11:59 GMT -5
I acknowledge the gutsiness of this move, but this feels like the band on the Titanic. Even if he doesn’t want/need surgery, I bet he could use a head start on rest and rehab, not plugging away for a team with 0.1% playoff odds.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 16:23:34 GMT -5
This game is worth like 4 wins for the pythag. I haven't laughed this hard at a baseball game in awhile. .490 BA vs .330 xBA. Kinda makes up for the 1st game which was reversed with 16 hits for the Astros with a .257 xBA. First post in a year? Welcome back.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 16:21:48 GMT -5
I think folks have touched on a lot of the obvious ones already, so a few more below-the-radar ones: -Dalbec with plus contact is a legitimate starter and a borderline all star; ditto for Blaze Jordan with plus 3B defense -Drohan with plus fastball velo is a mid-rotation starter -Meidroth with plus power is a poor man's Dustin Pedroia -Mata with plus command is a really good reliever
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 16:15:32 GMT -5
This is a bit of a F You to Houston, isn't it? My POV on this is - if you put in a position player pitcher, you deserve to have that guy knocked around a bit.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 16:12:28 GMT -5
The potential is certainly there as long as he can make enough contact to reach his power. Of course, much as I like to rag on Dugie and think he should be traded this offseason, I have to admit that he's solidly entrenched in that 105-110 OPS+/wRC+ range, which would be a pretty good outcome for even a bat-first prospect (at least one outside the Top 100). Is verdugo a clubhouse cancer? Why would you make this comment in a thread on Wilyer Abreu? Let's please stay on topic here.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 16:11:32 GMT -5
If Llovera can consistently throw strikes, he's a really interesting reliever.
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Post by jmei on Aug 24, 2023 6:10:03 GMT -5
Just brutal news for a truly generational talent.
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Post by jmei on Aug 23, 2023 12:51:50 GMT -5
Yes, if Song's fastball velocity ticks up two grades and he flashes improved command in the AFL, he could put himself in the Rule 5 picture. But you could say the same thing for just about every other Rule 5 eligible pitcher in the system. Unless and until it happens, it's a bit of a silly thing to fixate on.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 20:46:50 GMT -5
Sigh
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 20:27:37 GMT -5
Isn’t Devers supposed to back up home and story supposed to cover third? I disagree with Millar here. The coverage is a wheel. Devers did break for home pretty quickly. He’s just… well let’s call it “not very fast” in polite company.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 20:25:32 GMT -5
That’s on Houck, by the way. He needs to cover home there.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 20:24:27 GMT -5
The fundamentals on this team are so bad.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 14:48:13 GMT -5
Agreed and some supporting math; If they get swept this weekend and you assume a 90 win threshold for the playoffs (what the 3rd wild card is currently pacing to), they'd have to go 24-10 the rest of the way to get there. That's a lot - a .705 winning percentage - but it's also not a stunning rate, some team in baseball will do that every September (as I mentioned above the Mariners have been going at a .711 winning percent for the last 45 games). The best predictor of the future is the past. This team has shown no ability to play clean ball consistently and win at that sort of clip. The 2023 Boston Red Sox went 31-11 (.738 winning percentage) from May 12 to June 26 this season, so they have indeed shown the ability to play at that clip for a month and a half. It's unlikely, sure (that's why their playoff odds are so low), but not impossible.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2023 12:55:19 GMT -5
It feels a little early to me to start the "they need to win X of Y" and counting games and that kind of stuff. It's still early enough that each individual game doesn't matter so much. They just need to keep winning games. How 'bout now? One game has since accrued. We are still not in "must-win game" or "they have to win two of the next three" territory.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 21:12:35 GMT -5
Oh, so NOW he makes a good play.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 21:04:57 GMT -5
Well, that sucked.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 21:01:49 GMT -5
Bad time for a bad call.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 20:59:27 GMT -5
They have to take advantage now before they pull Javier.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 20:58:38 GMT -5
Murphy's gonna get optioned after eating innings tonight, Llovera stays imo I like Llovera’s stuff. It all moves like crazy and if he improves his command even a little, he could be a nasty bullpen ace.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 20:57:00 GMT -5
Look, the gameday thread in a game where they’ve had a ton of self-inflicted errors is not the place where you should be looking for sober, balanced analysis. It is OK for this to be a cesspool of bad hot takes. Just avoid the thread if it bothers you.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 20:35:33 GMT -5
This team is so hard to root for sometimes.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 20:26:32 GMT -5
WTF was that, Reese.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 14:50:04 GMT -5
If I think about the one skill they need the most on the roster, it's outfield defense in my mind. Duran, Duvall and Refsnyder are all below average at CF and Yoshida is below average in LF. There's a clear fit there in just about every game in the late innings to insert Rafaela at CF, push their starting CF to LF and push their starting LF to DH once the DH has batted in the 7th or later. Plus, while he's not an elite basestealer, he's a solid "fast guy" pinchrunner, and he can even pinch hit for a LHH vs. a lefty reliever, especially in a situation where you need contact (e.g., man at third with less than two outs).
Meanwhile:
-Pinch runner: you would pinch-run for McGuire, Casas, Turner, Devers and Yoshida in a late-and-close situation. But Wong is fast enough to run for McGuire and whichever of Story, Reyes and Urias isn't starting is fast enough to run for any of the rest. The real value-add of Hamilton is not to just be a fast guy off the bench, but a fast guy who can comfortably steal a base, which they admittedly don't have on their existing roster (and which Rafaela is not that great at). But will that situation emerge often enough to be worth carrying a 28th man who adds little-to-no value as a hitter and as a defender?
-RHH off the bench: they have an acceptable RHH on the bench now (whichever of Duvall and Refsnyder isn't playing). If they're both playing, which LHH are you pinch hitting for? Maybe Casas or that third outfielder, but I'm not sure I'd rather have Dalbec over Casas or Yoshida/Verdugo in that situation, and how often would it come up? One pro for Dalbec is if Turner's foot is still acting up, in which case Dalbec would add value as a backup at 1B/3B.
-LHH off the bench: which of the starting RHH is that guy hitting for? Maybe Wong or one of the middle infielders, but is Valdez better than those guys even with the platoon advantage, and how often would it come up?
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 14:08:51 GMT -5
One thing working against Rafaela is that he arguably needs the development time in AAA the most of those options. (Of course, you could flip that the other way and say that he has the most upside and most to gain from a AAA cup of coffee.) I'm not so sure about this. Rafaela has had an abundance of time to alter his approach at AA and AAA over the past 2 years but his K-rate, BB-rate and Chase-rate have remained fairly consistent. If the issue is that he needs to see more pitches to better identify bad pitches, that makes some sense, but if it's the approach then I think failing at the MLB level would help more than anything. And of course if he doesn't fail, he would be one of the better players on the Red Sox (I assume he will fail at least a little). Lots of AA playing time, sure, but (1) only 188 PAs in AAA so far, and AAA is the level where he faces more of those crafty veterans that might be able to exploit his chase rate, and (2) if the 28th man is only going to be getting periodic plate appearances, they may want Rafaela to be getting more regular playing time in AAA (whereas they have less concern about those other guys mostly riding the bench for a month).
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