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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2023 10:28:43 GMT -5
Bloom is definitely the sort of GM who does not categorically rule out trades. In other words, he's not going to say "we're in buy mode, I won't listen to offers on [Duvall/Paxton/etc]." Even if he's looking to add wins at the deadline, if another team offers a good enough package, he'll listen on anyone on the roster. Just a question of what packages he gets offered.
On Duvall specifically, I just don't think other teams are going to offer a lot for a rental fringe starter/good backup. But it only takes one team that is desperate enough...
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2023 10:22:00 GMT -5
I moved a bunch of Rafaela discussion to his specific thread.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2023 10:17:45 GMT -5
Let's stay on topic please.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 16:32:23 GMT -5
Even without a Duvall trade, I think the Kiké trade makes it more likely that Rafaela gets that last spot. There’s more playing time for an outfielder than an infielder now, and Rafaela can still back up the infield positions if they really need him to. They don’t have a plus defensive CF on the roster anymore and Yoshida is a guy who could use a regular defensive replacement (with Duran/Duvall moving to LF). Against some left-handed starting pitchers, they may want to start an all RHH outfield. And Rafaela is more likely to be a piece of the next great Red Sox team than Hamilton and would rather he get those reps if it’s close between the two of them.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 15:27:47 GMT -5
Separate thought: in September and/or the playoffs, if the Red Sox have an extra position player spot to fill, I think Rafaela is a very real candidate to get that spot. Hamilton is a better baserunner, but Rafaela is no slouch in that department and is both a much better defender at SS/2B and a more versatile one who can also fill in at CF (for instance, if they pinch run for Yoshida or Duvall or remove one of them in the ninth for a defensive replacement). Hamilton has better platoon splits, but even with the platoon disadvantage, I think Rafaela is the better hitter (you wouldn't want either of them coming up to the plate too often, though).
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 15:22:49 GMT -5
Of the parts of his game to improve, I'm much more keen on seeing if Rafaela can cut his strikeout rate than if he can improve his walk rate. There are lots of successful hitters with the trio of (1) low walks, (2) better-than-average strikeout rate and (3) league-average to better power. For instance, among qualified hitters from 2021 to 2023 (I would encourage folks to use multi-season samples since fluky stuff can happen in a single season): Luis Robert: 4.7% BB, 23.5% K, .219 ISO, 132 wRC+ Bo Bichette: 5.4% BB, 20.5% K, .181 ISO, 127 wRC+ Austin Hays: 5.6% BB, 20.9% K, .179 ISO, 109 wRC+ Andres Gimenez: 5.7% BB, 20.1% K, .154 ISO, 112 wRC+
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2023 10:11:20 GMT -5
I would not stress out much about potentially need to clear 1 or 2 bullpen spots when everyone is healthy. Even if Sale, Whitlock, Houck, etc. all return on schedule (far from a guarantee), someone else will probably get dinged up, and even if actually everyone is healthy, I don't think some combination of DFA Kluber/DFA Bleier/option Bernardino or Schreiber or Houck until September 1 is all that problematic. You're not getting much back for any of the fringy bullpen/rotation guys anyways (I am skeptical that anyone would even take all of Kluber's salary).
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2023 13:34:23 GMT -5
I wouldn't worry too much about the roster fit in 2025. If Verdugo is re-signed on a good contract (or even just not a terrible one), he'll be very movable if they want to open playing time for Soto, Anthony, etc.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 17:44:41 GMT -5
Projections have Kiké at around 85 wRC+ going forward, and he's an excellent outfielder. I don't think it's surprising that a team thought that he has a bit of value on a 60 games/$1 million deal. Even putting aside the prospects and salary savings, the real synergies that the Red Sox front office squeezed out here were the facts that (1) the Red Sox did not need an extra outfielder but the Dodgers do and (2) if he was kept on the Red Sox roster, Cora would have played him more at 2B/SS than was ideal.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 17:38:18 GMT -5
Well that's a bummer on the 2.5M going back to the dodgers. Not surprised at all there but won't really help them much come trade deadline to try and bring in more salary if they don't want to go over the LT which if I had to guess they won't. Eh, if the alternative was DFAing him, paying him all of his salary and getting no prospects in return (which it most likely was; feels hard to imagine Kiké still on the roster when Story comes back), the fact that they got anything at all was nice, and the fact that they offloaded some money and got a couple potentially useful relievers was great.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 15:49:51 GMT -5
New TV money is capped at 10% yearly increases in cap levels. There won't be some huge spike like Warriors got to sign KD. It will be gradual at max 10% per year, so there won't be some massive shift in contracts in one year. It won't happen all in one year, but it will still happen.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 15:44:48 GMT -5
We now have a separate Kiké Hernandez thread - I moved a bunch of posts over to that separate thread.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 15:11:13 GMT -5
We all just need to reset expectations. With the new TV deal coming in 2025 (just one year into Brown's new deal), $60M AAV deals are going to be the new normal for star-level players.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 10:16:44 GMT -5
I had to double check the Strider strikeout numbers in the original post. I haven't paid much attention to the NL in recent years and my first reaction to an almost 15 K/9 was that it was a typo...
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2023 10:08:17 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2023 22:01:20 GMT -5
Not necessarily a rule change (since the rule already gives umpires some discretion), but would love to see more judgment on ground rule doubles (runner on first scoring, mostly). Not just with two outs, either. That one always drove me crazy.
Oh, and bring back the shift.
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2023 11:40:34 GMT -5
I don’t think front offices are that petty. There are lots of gray area ways they could screw each other (waiver wire games, medicals on trades, taking guys in Rule 5 just to screw with their development, etc.) that they generally don’t resort to.
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2023 5:31:59 GMT -5
You’re completely right. For me at least, it’s all about the principle of the thing now. We’ve waited so long for Noah Song, asking for years and years “any news on Song?” “Did Song get his waiver approved?” Hell, my brother put in his best man speech that we’d always be talking about whether Song would be coming back this season. At this point it doesn’t matter how he’s pitching or whether his stuff comes back all the way? He just needs to pitch for us. Phillies fans didn’t wait and wonder for four years on Noah Song. They don’t deserve him. Send him home. We put in all that “effort.” Let us get something out of it. The real Greek tragedy is that the Red Sox get him back after a long and arduous road (perhaps he gets claimed by the As and just barely gets DFAed before the 90 days are up because they are a waiver claim they’d rather have) and he just isn’t good enough and quietly gets released in a few years.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2023 20:58:15 GMT -5
I know Song theoretically has a high ceiling due to his pedigree, but I’m not sure he’s a real prospect at this point. Stuff still isn’t there and odds are against it ever coming back all the way. Even if he gets his velo back into the mid 90s, he’s so far behind the development curve that it’s tough seeing him ramping his innings up to be a starter. If he were on the 40-man roster, he’d be on DFA watch (or have been DFAed already). If he were in the Red Sox system, would he crack the top 30? If you crossed out the name, you’d take, say, Troye or Dobbins’ stuff over his, and he’s a few years older than them.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2023 8:44:35 GMT -5
I absolutely agree that Rafaela needs to stop swinging at bad pitches, I just think walk rate is a bad proxy for his selectivity. He’s always going to be a free swinger. Given his profile at the plate, I would rather he put balls in play early in the count than take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (which will lead to more walks but also more strikeouts and weak contact). I am far more concerned about his increased strikeout rate than his minuscule walk rate in AAA.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2023 20:23:37 GMT -5
Ceddanne already 1/2 and now draws a walk. Took a 3-0 pitch that may or may not have been a strike on outside corner. Great eye😉 A walk!! His second in the last month! Legitimately more exciting than a homer. And to go with that 7-pitch AB... Hard disagree. Rafaela’s never going to walk much. Whether he’s a 4% BB guy or an 8% BB guy won’t make a meaningful difference for his overall value. But if he can drive the ball for extra base hits, leg out some cheap singles and not strike out much a la 80% of 2023 Duran, he’ll be a multi year MLB starter.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2023 15:44:33 GMT -5
We're getting a little too personal. Please remember to criticize the idea and not the person. Let's move on.
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2023 10:01:10 GMT -5
Looking at the current Red Sox team, thereâs not a lot of holes that need to be plugged, especially in the lineup. The outfield of Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo with Bargain Bob and Duvall as backups is going to be hard to upgrade. Corner infield is the same. Devers is Devers and Casas has been playing very well, especially lately. Connor Wong is one of the best defensive catchers in the league and isnât a black hole at the plate. More importantly, good catchers are hard the come by. The guys that are clearly better players than Connor Wong are on contenders or are young, controllable catchers that teams will need a haul to part with. The only realistic path to upgrade the team seems to be the middle infield. Hopefully Story will be back soon and will play like a healthy Trevor Story will. Heâll take one of the middle infield spots, but the other will be some combination of Kiké, Arroyo, Chang, Reyes, etc. Thatâs an upgradable position. The issue there is who is available? Tim Anderson is likely available if you think that he can return to form. Maybe Paul DeJong from the Cardinals? Thereâs not a ton of impact middle infielders on the market. Pitching is where I think the Sox will make their moves if they are buyers. With only three healthy pitchers starters right now and the uncertainty in the returns of Sale, Whitlock, and Houck, the Sox are probably looking to supplement their rotation. The good news is there are plenty of options. Thereâs pure rentals like Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, and Jack Flaherty. Thereâs potential rentals like Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez. When you look at the bullpen, there are arms on the market. This Red Sox team, playing like it is, can make a run. The best news is that the holes that need to be plugged can be reasonably done without emptying the farm. If the team continues to look good, find a starter to grab and a right handed reliever and go for it. One of their biggest challenges is going to be the fact that there are a large number of incumbent players coming back from injury in the August timeframe (Story, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, McGuire, Schreiber, Kluber) who will theoretically significantly improve the team and fill many of their existing holes. Do you look at that list and decide just to hold tight and hope rehab schedules proceed on time? Or do you assume that at least some of those guys will suffer setbacks and look externally to fill those holes? The front office will have more granular data about those rehab schedules than we do, so it'll be hard to figure out as a fan, but that's almost even more important than the "where are our playoff odds" question.
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2023 7:48:21 GMT -5
Alex Speier in today's Globe asking " When will the Sox be competitive in the AL East?" Interesting that this is Speier, who has been mostly a Bloom advocate. Not that it's bad, but it does cast out more critical conjecture than praise (the gist seems to be that the solutions, especially in pitching are not coming from inside the house and they need to trade high value assets to get some, or buy it on the free agent market. Excerpt from an "AL Evauator" (no word if this is the same AL Evaluator who said Yoshida is a 4th outfielder): “I do think they’re on the right track. But with the status quo, I don’t necessarily see them being a top contender in that division in the foreseeable future,” said one AL evaluator. “They have to make a major acquisition or have an unexpected surprise. Even if Mayer becomes what you hope he could be, who else are you getting? What’s going to really set this team over the top? Especially, where’s the pitching coming from?”Lots more in the piece Eh, feels like you're reading the article with a selective slant. There's certainly some criticism there (although less from Speier and mostly from unnamed league sources and, interestingly, from Cora: "Are we where we want to be when I talked to Chaim [when interviewing to return as manager] at the end of ‘20? I don’t believe so. We still have some work to do, but we have made some strides,” said manager Alex Cora. “Last year we finished last and this year we’re playing .500. At the end, you have to be realistic where you’re at. Can we do it? Of course, but you have to very honest and very transparent, black and white, this is where we’re at and this is what we want. And then you look around and see if, yeah, we can pull this off and you make decisions based on that. If you don’t feel that way, then you have to make other decisions.”). But there's also a fair amount of cautious praise about the MLB roster and the farm system:
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Post by jmei on Jul 16, 2023 9:54:55 GMT -5
Okay but it’s still not completely random who wins… actually I just went through every World Series winner from 2001 through 2022. All of them were top 10 in batting team WAR per fangraphs except For just 1 the 2005 White Sox. Who were number 1 in team pitching WAR that year So in that context it’s doesn’t seem all that random. For the record we we finished 18th in that ranking in 2022, and we were 16th at the deadline. Yes, you need a good team to make it into the playoffs. More at 11. (But seriously, read some of the research on this topic. There is no team construction secret sauce that provides a durable advantage in the playoffs.) The point isn’t that the playoffs are a total coin flip. Even in MLB, the better regular season team tends to win slightly more playoff series. But even the most lopsided matchup is something like 55/45 or 60/40, which means that front offices should focus more on just making into the tournament and less on building 100 win juggernauts.
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