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Post by jmei on Feb 1, 2023 8:35:40 GMT -5
The ZiPS secret sauce is a heavy dose of player comps, along with the inclusion of Statcast data in recent years. Here's Szymborski explaining the methodology ( link):
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 17:21:33 GMT -5
On this first day of legal Massachusetts sports gambling, I’d hit the over on that one.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 14:25:03 GMT -5
I also think the Marlins (because of where they are in the competitive landscape) are more willing to accept a high-risk/high-reward player, whereas the Red Sox wanted a little more stability.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 14:08:17 GMT -5
I guess you can quibble with the projections if you'd like (I have no particular desire to quibble further except to point out that it is bad analysis to (1) give 2018/2019 the same weight as 2022 and (2) ignore 2017 and earlier). But, at worst, Andrus is comparable to (in the same tier as) their existing options on a per plate appearance basis, and then you consider that (1) Andrus has a much more robust history of staying on the field than any of those guys, (2) there is no real playing time logjam once you take into account that Mondesi will be injured to start the season and they really need at least 10 regulars to cover 9 starting spots given the inevitabilities of injuries and days off and (3) I'm not sure there is a more efficient way to spend that money.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 13:23:17 GMT -5
By way of comparison of the projections that were easy for me to look up:
| Steamer wRC+ | BAT X wRC+ | Steamer WAR/600 | BAT X WAR/600 | Andrus | 91 | 90 | 2.2 | 2.2 | Duvall | 88 | 98 | 0.7 | 1.7 | Mondesi | 83 | 67 | 1.7 | 0.8 | Arroyo | 95 | 102 | 1.6 | 2.1 | Hernandez | 97 | 100 | 1.8 | 2.5 | Verdugo | 113 | 107 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 13:14:56 GMT -5
I was never very interested in bringing Iglesias back, but with Mondesi in the mix I think he'd make sense as a stopgap until Mondesi and later (hopefully) Story are healthy. And he'd fit comfortably under the CBT. I'd prefer a trade that brought back something a little better, but Iglesias seems like an adequate plan B. Andrus? I'm just not seeing the fit there. Even if they could squeeze him under the CBT what would you even be upgrading? I don't think he'll sign just to be a stopgap, and I don't think he's better than any of Arroyo, Mondesi, or Duvall, and while he'd represent a moderate defensive upgrade, that's only the case when neither Story nor Mondesi are healthy, and he'd be an offensive downgrade as well when he's in the lineup (pushing one of Kiké/Duvall/Verdugo/Arroyo to the bench). I don't see him offering value anywhere near $8-10 million or whatever he'd cost. I think Andrus has a much higher floor than any of their current middle infield options, which is incredibly valuable on a team that has a lot of options with upside but come with significant injury (Arroyo, Mondesi, Story) and performance (Hernandez, especially on defense, where position switches shouldn't be taken for granted) questions. Andrus has had a track record of staying on the field and his defense means that he'll add a ton of value even if he doesn't hit. He also projects to just be better than Arroyo and Duvall (and is close enough to Hernandez and Verdugo that it's at least a question). The projections generally have Andrus as a ~2 win player, and if you can get that for $8-10M on a one year deal at a position of need, it's a slam dunk. I'm sure he'd like a multi-year deal or a guaranteed starting spot or just more money, but at a certain point he's either going to have to take what he can get or start missing games.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 11:56:34 GMT -5
Yeah I mean I actually think the way it ends up, if there's ever a stretch with everyone healthy, is a lot of rotation between Duvall/Mondesi/Arroyo/Kiké/Added Infielder X and to a lesser extent Verdugo/Casas/Turner/Yoshida based on matchups. I certainly hope Kiké plays lots of center and I probably agree they're better that way, but I guess I'm just saying I don't think Andrus being added is a slam dunk to make them a better team, and he might prioritize a place where he's going to get to be the every day short stop and I don't think the Red Sox set up well for that at this point. For me what it comes down to with Andrus is how much salary he is going to chew up. I don't know the exact $ amount they have left to spend while staying under the tax. For the purposes of this let's say it's 10M. I wouldn't want to pay Andrus more than 8 or so of that 10 which still puts them rather close to going over and especially so if they are in the position to be deadline buyers. It certainly could make more sense to try and keep more $ available come deadline time then it does signing Andrus right now, assuming they want to stay under the LT this year anyway. If they don't care all that much then by all means go get Andrus since it's just money. On the flipside though who knows who could be available for MI/CF by the deadline, plus hopefully Story is either back or close to being back by then anyway. Redsoxpayroll on Twitter has them with $8.25M of space, which I think is a little low (he has Paxton at $5M but I think it should be $4.2M (per Speier, it counted at $5.8M last year, so should be $4.2M this year) and he has $6.5M for bonuses/incentives that won't all be achieved) but is by far the most accurate one I've seen. Keeping in mind that they'll want to keep a slight buffer to potentially add guys like Alfaro ($2M), Allen ($1.4M) or Tapia ($2M) and for trades down the line, it doesn't leave much room for additions, so my idea of adding Andrus (RIP) is probably impossible now without subtracting salary elsewhere. They might have enough for Iglesias or a reliever, though.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 10:26:41 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 10:24:44 GMT -5
One thing I might speculate re; Duvall is that part of the reason he chose to sign with the Red Sox is they promised him a starting role to begin the year. Not positive on that, but he cited playing time as a reason for his choice. If they did that they canât really re-neg or theyâre going to have a problem with future free agents. Eh, the 10th player on a roster with as much positional flexibility as this one will basically play every day. Because of Kiké's ability to switch back and forth between OF and MIF, if any non-catcher needs a day off or is injured, Duvall would start.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 16:56:35 GMT -5
I think theyâre better off with Andrus/Kiké than they are with Kiké/Duvall even if Duvall is slightly better than Andrus because I know Kiké is an elite defensive CF whereas Iâm more skeptical of him full time at SS.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 15:39:57 GMT -5
I'm still here trying to wait out Elvis Andrus. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they added a SS who can push Kiké back to playing CF most days (or at least make it a spring training competition). Mondesi is a nice acquisition but likely won't be ready to start the season and would be nice if they didn't need to rely on him.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 14:51:18 GMT -5
It’s crazy how many good years Bleier has had out of the pen while not missing any bats. I've always been a sucker for the low-strikeout, low-velocity ground ball guys. Brandon Webb was my favorite pitcher of that era.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 14:21:51 GMT -5
Even if there's money going to the Marlins (which I would expect), the Red Sox got a player who is better than Barnes (per most of the projections), fits the roster better and has a cheap team option ($3.75M) for next year, which is a nice get.
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Post by jmei on Jan 30, 2023 12:40:40 GMT -5
They honest should have just gone to 20 for OF.
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Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2023 8:57:04 GMT -5
Tatum contributed to at least three fast break buckets because he didn’t get back on defense. It’s those kinds of mental errors that are most frustrating because the talent is there, he’s just not always as focused as he needs to be.
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Post by jmei on Jan 28, 2023 16:12:48 GMT -5
Please move on. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2023 22:09:21 GMT -5
One of Jaylen Brown’s remaining bugaboos—just not good enough from the line.
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2023 22:03:55 GMT -5
Great defense to send it into overtime, but a little too much iso Tatum down the stretch.
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2023 16:17:22 GMT -5
It's simply the Rooney rule. I don't believe he was a legit HC candidate. Might have been able to land something like DC, yet I don't even think that was close to a given. Yet you also don't know, teams have a long history loving Patriot coaches. Sorry but saying Mayo only got interviewed because of the Rooney rule is insulting and unfair to him. The Patriots just all but named him as second in line for the head coaching job.
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Post by jmei on Jan 26, 2023 6:01:27 GMT -5
There are other threads to discuss those other specific transactions or the front office’s performance, let’s keep this one focused on Barnes.
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Post by jmei on Jan 25, 2023 8:07:29 GMT -5
Let’s move on. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2023 21:52:59 GMT -5
The timeout stuff is an easy scapegoat. They stopped running an offense down the stretch and that’s on Tatum et al.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2023 21:51:29 GMT -5
42 minutes of Pritchard is too much Pritchard.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2023 21:48:41 GMT -5
Terrible late game offense from Tatum. Can’t just iso at the top of the key there.
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2023 19:26:41 GMT -5
So, are we rolling with Kiké, Mondesi and Arroyo in the MI until Story comes back, with Allen/Tapia/Duran as the 5th OF? Or is there still room for an everyday SS? Kinda feels like we're done. Here’s the thing—they still have optionality (there’s that word again) to do any of those things if the price is right.
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