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Post by 07redsox on Oct 6, 2018 21:00:14 GMT -5
He was really good in the regular season. So was Price
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Post by 07redsox on Oct 5, 2018 22:21:50 GMT -5
Sale was nasty. We can win everything with the stuff he showed tonight. I'd rather have him nasty at 99. Think we'll need that before it's over. He appeared to be throwing 95ish somewhat consistently and hit 97 a few times I believe. His slider was also pretty sharp with nice command. He proved earlier this season that he doesn't need high 90s heat to be successful.
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Post by 07redsox on Sept 25, 2018 11:23:39 GMT -5
Methinks #4. Cora will now likely align the rotation to have 7 days rest before their planned start. Moving Price before Sale this series pretty much says Price will get game 1, Sale game 2. Then the righties for NY or Oakland on the road. Interesting. Price at number 1 of he faces the Yankees. Something tells me that's a little off. I'm sorry, Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the planet. If he's not starting game 1, then the the Sox should rethink that ASAP. Yeah, I don't think anyone starts game 1 except for Sale. Just because Price is pitching before Sale this series really doesn't tell you anything about who is pitching game 1. It's not like either of them would be starting on regular rest anyway (unless the game 1 starter pitches the last game of the season, but I kind of doubt that). Their first postseason game is a week and a half away. As for your comment previously about Eovaldi being the playoff starter over E-Rod, I don't think that's true either. Cora has already said that he wants to get both bullpen experience as who is in the rotation is going to depend on who the ALDS opponent. The way I see it, if we face the A's then it's E-Rod pitching in the Oakland; if we face the Yankees it's Eovaldi pitching in Yankee Stadium.
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Post by 07redsox on Sept 14, 2018 11:22:15 GMT -5
Barnes being hurt sucks for the team but it also sucks that it gives the people who have been claiming the bullpen isn’t a problem an excuse when the bullpen is a problem in the post season. It will be: 1. Small sample sizes in the post season 2. Losing Barnes killed them or Barnes just wasn’t right coming back from time off. Barnes should be back for the postseason and there shouldn't be any excuses at this point. You shut down Chris Sale for over a month. You didn't get a bullpen arm because you didn't want a better reliever. The Sox core has been together for over 2 years minus Sale and Martinez. If this team doesn't win this year or next year, then it should be considered a failure and Dombrowski should lose his job over it, especially if the bullpen is the reason why the Sox lose. I'm sorry, but it is what it is. He has a ton riding on the next 2 years. There might be 4 teams in the AL to win over 100 games this year, so that isn't a great reason to keep him here. I give him credit for it, but it's not even close to the most important thing. Cora acknowledges this everytime he speaks too. Seriously? You should know, just like everyone else here, that this is not how it works. Most things in life, including baseball, are not black and white like this. It isn't does or doesn't, want or not want. Do you honestly think that DD didn't want another reliever? It's not as simple as asking and receiving. There were plenty of reports about a supposed deal for Herrera that fell apart at the last minute on the Nationals' part. The way you are describing it is making it seem like DD was sitting in his office, twiddling his thumbs, convinced that the Sox have all of the best relievers and that no one could replace any of them performance wise. It can definitely be said that people make excuses a lot for this bullpen. Some are justified, some are not. However, the extent of the criticism it gets can get extremely overblown. Even the best bullpen in baseball is going to blow many leads throughout the season. You know what fans of those teams say in those situations? Pretty much exactly what many on this board say about our current bullpen. We watch Red Sox games, many of us watching most if not all of them during the season in some way, shape or form, and know everything about the team. That means when something goes wrong we are also the first and most vocal to criticize. The grass is always greener on the other side....Fans of other teams who don't watch Red Sox games frequently are looking at our overall bullpen numbers/statistic and most likely saying they have a good bullpen, just like how we do here with other teams and their relief pitchers/bullpens (Seriously, how many times have people said Barnes can't pitch under pressure/in tough spots this season, even though looking at only his numbers he is having a really nice year. You don't see those comments about other teams pitchers, because we aren't watching them night after night. We mostly have the numbers to rely on. Barnes most certainly isn't the only reliever who has good numbers, but fans see them in a different way). The point is, yes the bullpen has question marks, but no, it is not as bad compared to other teams as many on here think it is. We are comparing our own experiences viewing these players nonstop firsthand to mostly just stats and occasional video evidence of players from other teams. The first way of doing it is great to be able to completely support and root for one team, but it also means you see every last details that others may not see and that numbers/statistics don't show.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 27, 2018 11:29:42 GMT -5
What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). I have no idea where one could get this data, but I would bet my left arm that Ichiro averaged A LOT higher than 75 MPH for his hits. Just because someone hits a single or is considered a singles hitter does not mean they are not hitting the ball hard. Exit velocity is going to tell you a lot in terms of how the ball is it and, in turn, how likely the ball should actually be a hit. Someone like Ichiro, who becomes what they were through base hits, is not going to be hitting the ball without authority. If they are, then they are never going to amount to much of anything.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 20, 2018 12:31:09 GMT -5
. For example, the average 3B in all of MLB (extreme examples coming) is hitting .300/.400/.500, but you have a 3B who is hitting .320/.420/.520. Obviously your 3B is a great player (lets ignore defense and baserunning right now) and better than the average player. However, the average 3B is hitting .300/.400/.500, so compared to a replacement level player at another position he may not be adding a ton more if you did replace him with someone else. No one is punishing a great player as you stated. Your 3B is obviously a great player, but WAR is showing you that he doesn't add as much to the team as any other 3B that you could put at the position. A catcher (league average .225/.325/.425), however, hitting the same as your 3B (.320/.420/.520) is obviously having just as good of a year numbers wise as your 3B. However, the catchers WAR is obviously going to be much higher because his replacement would frankly suck compared to him. Ok... that’s fine. But... if that catcher is .250/..330/.435, he is above replacement catcher but well below that 3B. Is that marginal improvement worth the same 1:1? Think prime Matt Weiters (2012, same WAR as Josh Hamilton, for example), not prime Joe Mauer. Comparing Wieters and Hamilton in 2012: Wieters has 3.9 fWAR and Hamilton 4.8. Is your problem that Wieters has a WAR that is too close to Hamilton even though Hamilton was obviously the far superior hitter? As I know you are aware, other areas like defense go into calculating WAR. Hamilton in 2012 spent more of his time in CF than LF. He was a very poor/well-below average defensive CF, but around average in LF. The 60% of the season he spent in CF playing bad defense is going to make his WAR value drop. If your point is that their WAR is too similar in 2012 even though Hamilton provided much better offensive numbers, then I guess you are forgetting the "above replacement level" portion of WAR (catcher almost always has a very low level of offensive talent that would be considered replacement level year after year. LF, as well as 1B, have typically been the big hitters with defensive problems position, so reaching replacement level year after year is going to be more difficult from those positions compared to catcher). I am in no way an expert in advanced statistics, especially compared to those here. However, I have always viewed WAR as a way of seeing the advantage that a team has compared to all the other teams in the league. Having Mookie Betts in RF is amazing, but if every single team had the exact same Mookie Betters playing RF, then the Red Sox don't have much of an advantage (or any) in terms of the production from that position. From reading through previous posts, it looks like you are looking for WAR to do something that it isn't mean to do (tell you how many literal wins a player added to a team, which a stat like WPA is going to be something to look at for this isntead), and have more of a semantics issue with the name. Is it part of your issues with WAR that it is used at times for people to make their point for why someone is the better player or the MVP candidate in a given year?
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 20, 2018 10:14:13 GMT -5
Right, only in the vacuum, which is what WAR is attempting to do. What is your confusion then? If you want to look at how much a guy actually impacted win probability then look at a statistic which does that. For example your point was Degrom is maybe worth closer to 5 wins given the actual game logs? Well, WPA shows that he has been worth exactly 5.11 wins to the Mets so far, in a much more literal sense. If this is what you are interested in, I urge you to consider reading into WPA. EDIT: I don't know why the quote isn't showing up but here is what I'm referring to: "I think you are misunderstanding me: my point is that talent and success are two different things. the mediocre pitcher who has great success is still mediocre in ability. I have low expectations for next year etc. We all know guys can just have those years. At the same time, a statistic that says someone else would have helped a team win more.... seems dubious if the team is already maxing out. In other words DeGrom is great. The Mets wins and losses in his starts are about their average in all their pitchers’ starts. So it doesn’t seem like he is making any real difference on that team. If the idea is he’s win more elsewhere, I’d say duh. If the idea is he’s worth more wins to the Mets, I’d say — only in that vacuum you mention." Actually, I am saying you cannot really show DeGrom as “adding” wins at all. His teams wins his games at about the same rate they win games overall. I’m also saying that this is separate from his talent, which is being wasted. But the indicators of his talent come in his neanderthal stats. With hitters, my point is that just because a position is strong, it makes little sense punishing a great player. Similarly, being relatively strong at a weak position doesn’t make you more valuable than a stud at a stud position. You get a good catcher, it is a bonus assuming you have the good leftfielder. A team with Chipper Jones in left and a mediocre catcher is better than a team with Kendall at catcher and a mediocre leftfielder. Being relatively strong at a weak position does make you more valuable to the team compared to a stud at a stud position. That is exactly what WAR is trying to show, as it is showing wins above replacement for that position. For eample, the average 3B in all of MLB (extreme examples coming) is hitting .300/.400/.500, but you have a 3B who is hitting .320/.420/.520. Obviously your 3B is a great player (lets ignore defense and baserunning right now) and better than the average player. However, the average 3B is hitting .300/.400/.500, so compared to a replacement level player at another position he may not be adding a ton more if you did replace him with someone else. No one is punishing a great player as you stated. Your 3B is obviously a great player, but WAR is showing you that he doesn't add as much to the team as any other 3B that you could put at the position. A catcher (league average .225/.325/.425), however, hitting the same as your 3B (.320/.420/.520) is obviously having just as good of a year numbers wise as your 3B. However, the catchers WAR is obviously going to be much higher because his replacement would frankly suck compared to him. Once again, no one is punishing the 3B because the catcher is going to have a higher WAR. However, comparing the two positions the catcher is obviously the more valuable player to the team. While their performance value may overall be the same if you don't look at position, the value added to the team by having a catcher who is far and away better than any other teams catcher pushes him over the edge.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 20:50:35 GMT -5
What exactly are you talking about? I am watching the Phillies broadcast and they showed a clear as day, non-blurry, slow motion view that clearly showed him being out. As a matter of fact, why in the world would I want to believe that? That is much more appropriate for what you are saying, not what everyone else is saying... That is exactly what was shown on the NESN broadcast. Maybe the Philly broadcast had a better shot, I don't know I'm not watching from their end. So then yo probably didn't see all angels...You do realize that different broadcasts have different angels right? That's exactly why the review team has access to every single broadcast of each game to be able to see all possibly angels.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 20:46:00 GMT -5
No, they overturned it because it was the correct call. It's one thing to want to believe in something for the benefit of your team, it's a very different thing to completely ignore factual/visual evidence of the call being against your wishes for the team.. His foot clearly dragged across the base with the ball in his glove. The only possible reason to believe he was safe is if you thought there was a chance his foot was just hovering over the bag by the smallest of margins. However, even then I'm sure they were able to blow up the video to check for that as well... Again this is what you to believe. Unless you knew the ball was in the glove and you knew his foot was on the bag (which it's freaking blurry due to the movement of the play), you don't know if either occured. What exactly are you talking about? I am watching the Phillies broadcast and they showed a clear as day, non-blurry, slow motion view that clearly showed him being out. As a matter of fact, why in the world would I want to believe that? That is much more appropriate for what you are saying, not what everyone else is saying...
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 20:37:58 GMT -5
They overturned that play because they knew Philly fans would flip cars and throw babies if they didn't overturn that play. No, they overturned it because it was the correct call. It's one thing to want to believe in something for the benefit of your team, it's a very different thing to completely ignore factual/visual evidence of the call being against your wishes for the team.. His foot clearly dragged across the base with the ball in his glove. The only possible reason to believe he was safe is if you thought there was a chance his foot was just hovering over the bag by the smallest of margins. However, even then I'm sure they were able to blow up the video to check for that as well...
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 20:26:59 GMT -5
Ohh come the fudge on. There wasn't enough to overturn there. Other then an angle with his foot dragging across the bag...
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 18:20:59 GMT -5
Could have went to the game (live 45 minutes from Philly in New Jersey), but decided against it at the last minute. Traffic into and out of Philly is atrocious for night games and not something I want to deal with tonight!
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 15, 2018 18:19:10 GMT -5
Or maybe the analytics go against what you think and Cora knows what he's doing? Not too crazy of a thought. Anyone who knows lineup construction knows that the best hitter or one of your best hitters of a lineup bats second in the lineup. Don't know why you're making this personal. Not sure how anything they said was personal...But as others said having Xander behind JDM is more likely to get him better pitches to hit. Most pitchers are going to be more careful against him if Holt, Devers, JBJ et al are behind him instead.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 8, 2018 18:44:41 GMT -5
Moreland seems to be heating up, its a beautiful thing to see!
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 7, 2018 21:58:20 GMT -5
WOW, I just got an AD for Holcim Cement in Tagalog. First non MLB AD I've seen. Do you guys get ADs in the USA for MLB.Com or regular ADs ? And coincidentally I'm heading out to pick up some Holcim cement. Holcim will think they are on to something when 1/3 of the Filipino fan base immediately buys their product. I have gotten them for all different types of things. Obviously many MLB com/basball related, but others that are lawn/yard care related and I think even those that are for Walmart and Amazon haha
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 7, 2018 13:15:54 GMT -5
I'd like to see Pomeranz do well but the fact is we haven't lost since he last pitched. He is running out of time to get it sorted and it's tough knowing our team can come from behind late in games but he hasn't kept it close to even do that. He's been a momentum buster. I know Pomeranz hasn't looked great at all this season and all of us expected much better from him, but he also hasn't been starting the game and creating blow-outs that we can't come back from. Yes, he isn't pitching deep into games, but the most he has allowed in a start all season is 5 runs (and we won the game). This isn't someone who is allowing 8-10 runs and we are then losing the game 9-1. He has been pretty bad all year (that may be an understatement sadly), but the team has pretty much been in the game for all his starts (most they have lost by in a game started by Pomeranz is 3 runs). We have one of the best offenses in the league to be able to score the runs needed to win. The best case scenario for this team is Pomeranz turning it around and becoming a viable starter for the rest of the year. Is that likely? Probably not at this point. However, just as a 9 game lead allows you the flexibility to rest players and kept them fresh for the postseason, it also allows the team to send him out there a few more times to see if anything changes. If it does then great. If not, at least you tried to see if you have another weapon for later in the year.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 5, 2018 21:12:47 GMT -5
They did...only problem being that they only said his name and then continued to talk about Hamels and Britton some more. The average fan knows who Britton and Hamels are, so you have to expect they’ll receive more attention in this format than a guy like Eovaldi. Hamels I would agree on, Britton not so much. Not sure the average fan would know him nearly as well as Hamels. But it is also not like Eovadi is some unknown player who has only been playing for no-market bottom dwellers. He spent a few years with the Yankees after all. This is also ignoring the fact that those in the booth should be education the fans listening to the game, not only mentioning those that the average fan would already know. Which goes back to the original point of the post I was replying to.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 5, 2018 20:57:30 GMT -5
They did...only problem being that they only said his name and then continued to talk about Hamels and Britton some more. Then I missed that mention. Perhaps my brain’s idiot filter was working overtime just listening to this game. Yup, definitely in overdrive for this game!
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 5, 2018 20:51:35 GMT -5
Granted, I’m a homer. But how can this team of annoying announcers have a discussion about the most impactful trade deadline moves and not say a word about Nate Eovaldi? They did...only problem being that they only said his name and then continued to talk about Hamels and Britton some more.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 4, 2018 17:29:50 GMT -5
Incredibly surprised that was actually overturned, but oh how sweet it is! I don't really understand what was hard to see about it. It clearly moved the chalk and you could even see the dent in the chalk from the ball mark on the dirt. I would have been so pissed if it wasn't overturned. That's was I was pretty surprised. I also feel that we don't see too many of those type of calls go our way usually.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 4, 2018 17:02:02 GMT -5
Incredibly surprised that was actually overturned, but oh how sweet it is!
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 4, 2018 16:54:55 GMT -5
Its one thing if you swing at a ball, its another if it almost hits you and you swing. He does both too often Not too say that he doesn't (because he does it too much anyway), but wasn't that particular situation a hit and run? I may just be making this up to somehow rationalize Nunez, but I could haven't sworn I saw/heard that haha
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Post by 07redsox on Jul 25, 2018 17:22:38 GMT -5
What a terrible trade. Why would you trade the #6 prospect to get a half a season of a starter with an ERA over 4 when you only sort of need one. This could be the next Thornburg trade. Only difference is it hurts you more because Beeks will now be playing against you in the division. I have a feeling this is because he wasn't great in his first 2 games, but that is not unusual. Jake Arrieta started his career with a 5.73 ERA in Baltimore over 3 1/2 seasons. Mariano Rivera put up a 5.51 ERA in his rookie season. Beeks is no Arrieta or Rivera, but you can't make these mistakes. This is the final straw, fire Dombrowski. I know with ERod and Wright out and Pomeranz struggling, I might go after Eovoldi, but not for any top 20 prospect in this system, which in most systems would be a top 40. I thought some of the earlier posts were extreme overreactions, but this one may take the cake. You acknowledge that our system is weaker than others by saying that a top 20 may be a top 40 in other systems. In what world do you get players like Eovaldi for players not in a teams top 40 prospects? Yes he was the number 6 prospects, buts that's a large reflection on the system and not Beeks himself. It's perfectly okay to be upset with this trade if you think Beeks is going to be a quality starting pitcher who will have years of team control. I personally was feeling excited to see what he could do in Boston. However, what's the point of ever making any trade involving any prospect if you are going to bring up other players who struggled at first only to become extremely successful players? While not all prospects are created equally, ANY prospects has the chance to become the next big time pitcher/hitter (to very varying degrees/chances). Even if not going to the extremes of comparing someone to Rivera, ANY prospects has a chance of being a quality cost controlled pitcher/hitter. Beeks could very well become that, but he could also struggle in the majors at every chance he has and never truly make it. I would not be surprised if Beeks never does truly make it, mostly because of what prospects are. To say that making this trade is a fireable offense is taking the two realistic views of this trade to the extreme.
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Post by 07redsox on Jul 10, 2018 13:26:18 GMT -5
I'm tempted to rest one or more of Betts/Benintendi/Martinez/Bogey since this doesn't seem like a game that we're really trying to win anyway. And I'd rest another one tomorrow with the Sale/Big Sexy matchup and then hope we can get to the All Star break from there. How exactly is that the case here? If it is only because Velazquez is starting the game tonight I'm even more confused, considering he has done a nice job all year whether starting or in relief. It's not like they are facing Taxas' version of Chris Sale tonight. Yovanni Gallardo hasn't had an ERA/FIP/xFIP/whatever stat you want to look at lower than 5 since 2015, and that hasn't changed much so far this year.
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Post by 07redsox on Jul 7, 2018 16:59:00 GMT -5
The more I see crap relievers being interested by the Sox, the more I just want to go get Dozier and hope Thornburg or Wright or Pomeranz comes back to peak perfomancd. I mean if your options are- A) Acquire a great 2B the past 3-4 years in Dozier and go with what you have or B) Trade for a guy like Rodney and call up a guy like Brandon Phillips Then give me option A. If that is all to those options then yes that sounds great. Unfortunately, option A would most likely cost a lot more than option B which needs to be taken into consideration.
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