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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:46:04 GMT -5
Apparently the reason Cleveland can't duplicate the Shelby Miller trade is because they want MLB talent. I wonder how much more they'd need for one of their starters if the Sox went JBJ/Kelly/?? Sox appear to be telling people that JBJ is staying in Boston, so it may be a moot point, but who knows. Carrasco or Salazaar would be fantastic, especially if they'd be replacing the Kelly/Wright spot, and it would add even more insurance for Buchholz's eventual DL stint, be it to save innings or because he's hurt They'd probably want to then upgrade their OF, which then brings a big question mark to their 12th pick. Still, for Salazar, I'd explore it.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:43:26 GMT -5
I was at the game where that woman was injured. Did she end up making a full recovery? I sure hope so. edit: picard beat me to it
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:39:55 GMT -5
I want full plexiglass around the infield. Also I want overthrows to make that "bong" noise off it and for overthrows to still be in play.
make it happen, red sox
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:24:51 GMT -5
My dream scenario would be a Reddick for Castillo trade: He brings a lefty bat to a righty heavy lineup, Canon arm, spiderman like defense, he's homegrown and here for a year so there's a chance for a QA and a draft pick I also think Benintendi will be ready by season end and even if he needs say 150-200 AAA plate appearances in 2017, Chris Young can do that and be a stop gap without hurting the team. That trade works if they add Devers and 35 million to Castillo. Otherwise it's just Beane trading one of his beloved players he's said he's not trading for a fundamentally poor (offensively) turd of an OF on a big contract.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:19:01 GMT -5
It's kind of remarkable the team is close to being below the LT level, after giving $31M to Price, and obtaining Kimbrel, Smith and Elias, while moving only 1 ML roster piece in Miley. There's no reason to not pursue being below the LT value now. As Hanley, Panda and Buchholz gain value in the first half of the year, I can see one moved to bring the payroll below the LT line. If so, and they compete as we expect, and I will have to concede that DDo is an alien, from a higher life form; far more intelligent than mere mortals. There's huge reasons not to pursue being under the luxury tax right now. 1. They want to compete and they're at 210ish million. That's not close to 189. 2. They'll add at the deadline if they're competitive and be over anyway. 3. It goes up next year and they have money coming off the books.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 15:14:43 GMT -5
Either one is an upgrade over Rusney. Braun has a much bigger ick factor too.
Also sounds like the Rockies are actively involved in Cargo trade talks currently.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 14:59:32 GMT -5
Carson Smith will probably get Tommy John! booo!
I hate Clay Buchholz because he won't throw more than 160-170 innings!
(then)
Let's trade our most valuable assets for Jose Fernandez! A guy who will most likely be on a 160 innings cap! Who had arm troubles last year after needing Tommy John after not really throwing that much at all!
/sox fans
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 23:50:22 GMT -5
Hey I like Refsnyder's bat as well, I just look at them and see an infield consisting of Texas, Didi, and Headley, and realize that they seem to value infield defense. That staff of Tanaka, Pineda, Severino, Eovaldi and Nova generated a pretty steady rate of ground balls last year, all hovering around 50%.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 23:40:31 GMT -5
Those big asks, and the vision for Buccholz probably set limits on what he does next. I think the vision for Joe Kelly is really the limiting factor on upgrading that rotation. Gammons had a great piece today that went into a little detail about the work Bannister, Baird and Willis did around the all star break going over the repertoire, pitch selections and game plans for Porcello, Kelly and Robbie Ross. And it sorta tracks with what we saw. Porcello back to his heavy sinker performed better, Kelly mixed in a curveball and had a string of 8 great starts. And Robbie Ross apparently went back to what he was doing before texas made him a starter. Though his ERA jumped a hair in the 2nd half, we saw his peripherals greatly improve. SO/W went from 1.91 to 3.75 (a product of nearly 3 more k's/9.) Now, saying that, I'm not greatly sold on it, but a big part of me also wants to see Henry Owens pitch in 2016 as well.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 23:32:31 GMT -5
The Yanks are also trying to upgrade a spot in the rotation, reports earlier were Cashman was going to dangle Gardner and Miller, which doesn't make huge sense, because that's infers there's a club looking to add quite a bit of payroll for what you would assume is a cheaper starter. Refsnyder is now a decently valuable trade chip and gives them another look on the trade front.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 23:28:45 GMT -5
lol sorry I need to type clearer. I meant compared to last year when they had Drew starting 115 games, and with guys like Ryan and Ackley on the roster. I also don't think they're fully sold on Refsnyder's defense (which from I've read is essentially slightly below average to maybe average) and Castro's grades out significantly better. Lol right I forgot when building their 2016 roster they should do it relative to the 2015 one rather than the one in place for 2016 my bad lol. Refsnyder isn't great defensively but he really can hit. I'm pretty thrilled if the Yankees aren't sold on him. Refsnyder hit in 2014 as well, and was passed over at nearly every opportunity in 2015. Everything I've heard has been they aren't sold on his defense, and that seems to pan out as they clearly aren't giving him a shot. Doesn't take a genius to realize there's something about him that gives them pause, and it seems like that's the defense. Though you're probably right, you obviously know the player better than they do. Maybe call them up and talk to Cashman, I hear he's pretty new to the game.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 23:17:15 GMT -5
Thing I just realized: This isn't even the worst trade Dave Stewart has made with the Braves of his most recent top draft choice. Don't the Braves now own the Diamondbacks 2013, 2014, and 2015 1st round picks? lol
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 22:51:41 GMT -5
Wow, I'm not really sure why people are offended that Miami is asking for your first 5 born kids. I'd hope my team did the same if they had a 23 stud pitcher. No sense trading him unless someone is willing to cripple themselves to get him. Also, I'm not sure how having a steep asking price is making it so they don't have friends? Especially, when you consider what Shelby Miller, a pitcher who couldn't hold a candle to Jose Fernandez, just got. Yeah I mean, they don't want to trade him, they're just hoping for some idiot like Dave Stewart to pay the Price. They just got a little too greedy. Fernandez is insanely good. He also came back from Tommy John and had another arm injury. Very few innings thrown last year. Should be on innings limits for 2 of his remaining 3 controllable years. I think the max prospect cost I'd be willing to spend on him is probably about 40% of what the Marlins want, and I think the Sox are in the same boat. edit: we're already seeing the effect of the red sox having an ace, I now capitalize the word "price" when I'm referring to cost.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 22:47:40 GMT -5
The Yankees have traded Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan for Starlin Castro. I'm not sure Castro is better than Refsnyder an losing Warren cuts into their depth. Warren had a 2.7 bWAR this year, Castro's is 2.3 over the past three years. So of course this all means Castro is going to put it together and have 50 hits a year against the Red Sox. Classic deal by the Yanks. They seem to love to trade these 6th starter swingman types that seemingly often put up good numbers for the Yanks (e.g. David Phelps, Shane Greene, Vidal Nuno). We can only hope that Castro performs as poorly as his worst years. Honestly, don't see him as a great fit in NY but its not like they give up a ton to get him. Most of his power is to left but a few of his doubles may go out in the short porch in right. There was also a big spike in his numbers when playing 2nd. Not sure how much there is to look into that though. Maybe he was more comfortable? Either way, they've got quite a few guys ahead of Warren on the pitching depth chart and they've added an everyday player up the middle, so it seems like it's a fine deal.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 22:42:58 GMT -5
They get younger and more athletic up the middle for their 7th starter? Like the deal for Yanks. Castro is older than Refsnyder. lol sorry I need to type clearer. I meant compared to last year when they had Drew starting 115 games, and with guys like Ryan and Ackley on the roster. I also don't think they're fully sold on Refsnyder's defense (which from I've read is essentially slightly below average to maybe average) and Castro's grades out significantly better.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 22:29:26 GMT -5
The Yankees have traded Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan for Starlin Castro. I'm not sure Castro is better than Refsnyder an losing Warren cuts into their depth. Warren had a 2.7 bWAR this year, Castro's is 2.3 over the past three years. So of course this all means Castro is going to put it together and have 50 hits a year against the Red Sox. They get younger and more athletic up the middle for their 7th starter? Like the deal for Yanks.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 20:55:37 GMT -5
Yowza lol.
Anybody want to do Betts, Owens and Benintendi for Shelby Miller?
Carrascos price just went up.
Also didn't Dave Stewart lambast Dombrowski for the Kimbrel deal?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 20:24:17 GMT -5
Casto for Warren and Brendan Ryan. So much for Yankees looking to cut payroll. Just trade a good, young, cheap SP/RP for a 10m per year 2B. With that said I kinda like it for NYY. It's not about payroll, it's about youth. A lot of payroll coming off for them next year regardless
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 19:46:44 GMT -5
Zobrist to Cubs 4/56
Sounds like Castro *may* be traded to Yanks for pitching.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 19:22:30 GMT -5
Not that it's anything but an idiotic pattern with no real basis you can base any projection on, but the seesaw effect of Buch's career the last 6 years says he's due for a ~28 start season lol
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 18:12:59 GMT -5
It's like with projections-- are they infallible? No. But they're the best we've got. Of course, but the way market price is considered on here, it's basically an afterthought. It is a HUGE determining factor in trades, and yet it is shrugged off whenever a trade is "evaluated". Like a bunch of dudes playing monopoly and preaching about the real estate market.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 18:01:58 GMT -5
Yes, I understand your point. I am assuming that the front office has its own proprietary model that it used to value the Kimbrel trade, the Price contract, the Smith/Elias trade, and all its transactions. It does seem that the internal model is (or must be) at odds with public consensus numbers. But the analysis only begins there. What I try to do is pretty much the same as everyone here, and take each data point I can find and use a kind of scientific method to infer what the internal method might say. Whether the internal model or the public consensus is "right" or not, isn't really the point for me. Either one could be completely wrong, I would have no way of knowing that now. I'm just trying to infer what the internal model might be. That's really not what most of us are doing, though. Most of us are trying to evaluate the transaction, not assume that the transaction must make sense and work backwards from there to see how it could be justified. It's fine if you want to answer that latter question, but you can't then assume the normative conclusions you've reached (e.g., that relievers are hugely undervalued, that the trade market is more efficient than the free agent market, that prospects with a high enough bust rate are worthless, etc.) are correct. Those conclusions are based off a flawed assumption (that the Red Sox front office is infallible). The flip side to this is no one here has any real grip on anything to do with the actual trade market lol. The only real baseline for what's realistic and how value is weighed in the current market, is through rumors that could be way off, or for the tiny amount of deals that actually get done.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 17:34:06 GMT -5
anyone know if there's a Hot Stove Show on WEEI tonight? Generally on Tuesdays, but usually Bradford & CO tweet the crap out of it before hand. Haven't seen anything yet I'm hoping so, they've been good shows thus far. Can't imagine they miss a chance to broadcast from down here in Music City That's my feeling, this is a must do, during the winter meetings. Must just be too busy to tweet about it.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 17:05:29 GMT -5
anyone know if there's a Hot Stove Show on WEEI tonight? Generally on Tuesdays, but usually Bradford & CO tweet the crap out of it before hand. Haven't seen anything yet
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 8, 2015 15:19:38 GMT -5
lol DD dumped Fielder once before.
Looking at def rating on fangraphs, Fielder's defense at 1st last year was pretty equal to Hanley's in left field haha.
There is ZERO chance the Sox are considering this. Unless FSG is getting into Sumo wrestling with Panda and Fielder
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