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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 8:25:35 GMT -5
Fair point. Sox could have put out there- JD Martinez Porcello Moreland Cashner
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 8:15:22 GMT -5
Betances is the only one who seems good on the free agent market, but he's 32 and coming off of shoulder problems, so that's probably a stupid risk.
Cashner looks like the only outside option that could to join that group.
McHugh would be for a starting job.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 8:08:07 GMT -5
As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in. This isn't the NBA. Unless you're going to get the top pick in a draft with a generational talent up top, the "no man's land" isn't terrible. You get more bonus money, for one thing. There are many rounds in which to sign potential impact players. And so forth. Baseball is set up differently, but I feel like most drafts are still built around that top 5 in the draft. Past that point, you're taking chances, picking players you like/most talented available etc. The Sox can find anyone, and they did last year with limited pool and picks. Still stinks to have a year like this and not even have a chance at a top 10 and maybe even a top 15 pick.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 7:49:36 GMT -5
5-6 WAR. Pedro had 11.6 fWAR, Johnson had 10.4, Cole has 6.0. Point taken, still the Astros turn mediocre into dominant all the time. Like the Sox need to get into whatever program they're running down there in Texas. Add- I feel like if Price was in Houston, he'd be pumping in 95 and be in the conversation for Cy Young awards right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 7:46:23 GMT -5
Really annoying how the Astros can turn Justin Verlander from a declining 30+ year old into a even better, but slightly older Verlander. Then they turn a number 3 starter in the NL and transform him into 1999 Pedro or 2001 Randy Johnson. Well, if Cole can put up another 5-6 wins before the end of the season, he'll be in that conversation. Not before. What?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2019 7:41:55 GMT -5
Really annoying how the Astros can turn Justin Verlander from a declining 30+ year old into a even better, but slightly older Verlander.
Then they turn a number 3 starter in the NL in Cole and transform him into 1999 Pedro or 2001 Randy Johnson.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 22:30:20 GMT -5
Well, that's probably it for Patrick Chung for the rest of his football career. What a idiot. All of this is false Well the idiot part is true lol. The NFL does love it's share of weapons and drugs dealers, plus women beaters. I'm sure they'll welcome him back with open arms.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 17:46:37 GMT -5
Well, that's probably it for Patrick Chung for the rest of his football career. What a idiot.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 17:34:00 GMT -5
65-59 after the Baltimore win, 6 over .500, 124 games played, 38 remain. 25-13 needed to get to 90 wins. Best chances - 2 Balt, 4 Phila, 3 SD, 2 Col, 3 Angels, completion of KC, 3 Tor, 3 SF, 3 Tex, 3 Balt - 27 games - win 2/3 of them gets 18 wins Toughest games - 4 Tampa, 4 NY, 3 Minn - 11 games - win half of them gets 5-6 games That would be an 89-90 win season. So they have to do better than the above, I think. Lol I pegged them at 88 wins back in mid-May and honestly, I was leaning over back then, disappointed as I was. But for real...they should tank. Play young guys. Bring dudes up. See what they have. Get a good draft pick. As I mentioned in a GDT, the Sox are probably finishing no higher than the 12th worst record no matter what they do. Too many bad teams with too many more losses ahead of the Sox. The Sox are stuck in no man's land this year, just a terrible spot to be in.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 16:03:24 GMT -5
Yeah that's kind of my point though.
Workman isn't throwing harder this year because he's all of a sudden throwing more curveballs and is getting less worn down. He just has more arm strength this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 15:02:12 GMT -5
Doesn't it make sense that the velocity increase isn't he has a better fastball, but by throwing less of them he hasn't worn down as much? Hence the slight increase in overall velocity, yet no change in his top velocity, which was actually higher in 2017. Didn't want to get into a 5 page argument with Umass, but this doesn't make sense. The curveball adds just as much stress to the arm as a fastball. Clayton Kershaw at one point decreased throwing curveballs ay one point in his career and started throwing more sliders, to save stress on the arm. He still might be doing that. Workman is just flat out stronger this year throughout and that is a great thing. When he's throwing harder, he's better. Just like Jim just said above, his curveball is so nasty that *any* improvement to the fastball is going to make him that much more dominant.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 14:33:00 GMT -5
See, he's right, even when he's wrong. Workman is great this year because of his fastball, not the drastically increased use of his curve ball, which has always been plus. No one ever could have seen a reason to not DFA him before. Yup. I really feel compelled to comment on this because I legit had like 3-4 pretty long data-driven posts on this in detail early in the year (April-May), specifically making the CB his main pitch, and intentionally using the 4FB up and out of the zone. All because of the prediction he would end up his old self. BBSavant showed an essentially unchanged pitcher with a completely different plan. He was blowing guys away at 91-92 in April before his velo trended up. His success has very little to do with velocity and everything to do with his new attack plan. Workman has averaged 94 mph in one month in his career. That was in June in 2019. He has been averaging over 93 mph ever since May. If Workman had kept averaging closer to the 91-92 mph that he was averaging all year in 2018, the homerun problem could have came back and he's probably not this good though. The pitch usage helps, but so does the velocity. www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519443&time=month&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/22/2019&s_type=2
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 5:53:52 GMT -5
As much as I’d love to see a playoff run, it’s been clear what kind of year it was going to be since at least the TB/NYY sweep, and probably earlier than that. At this point I’m just rooting for the draft pick to go as high as possible. Currently at 17, with a chance to go a bit higher if some of the NL teams pick up the pace. Mid teen talent isn’t necessarily much different than early twenties, but the bonus pool is larger. Given the creative job they’ve done with a small bonus pool the last two years, I want to see what kind of talent they can get with more money to work with. The Orioles sweep actually hurt the Sox in this regard. Add- The Sox probably won't pick higher than 12. There are a lot of horrible teams in baseball right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 1:08:26 GMT -5
What's your genius suggestion? That. The. Sox. Hit. Better. Situationally.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 22, 2019 0:44:47 GMT -5
Yeah I’ve seen all I need to see from Chris Owings We did the impossible and replaced Nunez with an inferior player Haha. I can't believe than anyone thinks that Holt or Hernandez is worse than Owings vs. LHP. And some people thought he's going to get the first crack at 2B next year?! Hi Mr. Sunshine. Sox didn't do well, so it was time to troll posts directly, I guess? Owings will either play his way into a bench spot next year or he will be non tendered or outrighted.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 13:35:23 GMT -5
There's been a number of posters who have pointed out that the Sox don't score when they needed to. Combined with the awful pitching, it's lead to this conversation.
Hopefully, it's not a long-term issue and they do a better job situationally next year with runners on base.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 13:26:53 GMT -5
Sex pills and PRP injections. Good for the veins.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 12:17:06 GMT -5
didnt realize it was almost two full years since Groome last threw a pitch for this organization. Great to have him back, hope he stays healthy and turns into a top prospect for this organization. Going forward what type of innings restrictions will he be on next year. 75-100? I think he is Rule 5 eligible after next year. If he gives you 75 solid but not great innings I assume the Sox would still protect him? Yeah. They got to protect him if he performs, even in a small sample of 75 innings or whatever next year. Bad tanking teams would love a chance to throw that into a bullpen for a year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 11:54:44 GMT -5
You don't also see a stat that also connects my point either? The Yankees are in the bottom 10. Okay, this is fruitless. Let me try another tack. If you want to make the case that their situational hitting has been bad, maybe you could say this: - Red Sox are 5th in wRC+, a good overall hitting metric. - Red Sox are 6th in WPA/LI, which I think means their situational hitting overall has been pretty good? (I'm a little confused by this, if someone wants to clarify.) -BUT they are 26th in fangraphs' Clutch stat, which means they've been worse than they ought to be in high leverage situations, given how good their hitters are. - So if I'm getting these stats right - good situational hitting, but not as good as it should be considering how good their hitting has been overall. The question is, how meaningful is this? There seems to be basically no correlation between how good an offense is and their Clutch ranking. Astros are 21st. Red Sox are 26th. Twins are 28th. Rays are dead last. So, okay. You want the Red Sox to have better clutch hitting. What's your suggestion for how they go about that? If you were talking about something like OBP or power you could talk about potential trades or free agent signings. But with this you can only just sort of... hope. Striking out less with runners on base would be a better guess from me. No definitive answers from myself, I'm not a hitting coach outside of stating the obvious about putting the ball in play more. I have suggested Nick Castellanos in the off-season. He would be a good bat to get.
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Sale to IL
Aug 21, 2019 11:09:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 11:09:34 GMT -5
See, he's right, even when he's wrong. Workman is great this year because of his fastball, not the drastically increased use of his curve ball, which has always been plus. No one ever could have seen a reason to not DFA him before. No. There's reasons to suggest why he wasn't good in 2018. He could have increased his curveball usage last year also. He could have still been bad, because there's no advantage to having a bad fastball. The real reason why Workman is better is probably because of the increased average velocity and increased curveball usage, but you know, you don't like my opinion. So whatever. Add- Admitted I was wrong, like 2 or 3 seperate times in the last post. Fully admitted. No step backs or nothing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 11:00:25 GMT -5
www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runners-left-in-scoring-position-per-gameThe 2019 Boston Red Sox are the second worst team in the majors and have on average left 3.7 runners in scoring position this year. The proof is in the stats. They need to do a better job of this next year. They need to learn to be better hitters situationally. Ya, they need to pitch better too. This has been pointed out to you already, but you do get that having a lot of runners left in scoring position is a function of having a lot of runners on base, right? This is the main reason why, in the list you're citing, Arizona, Houston, Texas, LA Angels, Washington, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and Boston are all in the top-10 in RISP left on base - all 8 of those teams are in the top half of the majors in OBP. The bottom 10 on that list includes San Diego, Oakland, San Francisco, Toronto, Kansas City, Miami, Cincinnati, and the White Sox - all 8 of those teams are in the bottom half of the majors in OBP. You're literally citing a stat that correlates with strong offense as evidence of the weakness of the Red Sox offense. Do you see why people are unpersuaded by that argument? You don't also see a stat that also connects my point either? The Yankees are in the bottom 10.
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Sale to IL
Aug 21, 2019 10:20:25 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 10:20:25 GMT -5
Devers is still a negative DRS guy, and there was plenty of people suggesting the same thing about Workman back in spring training. Workman has shown plus velocity for the first time in 3-4 years after Tommy John surgery. But thanks for asserting yourself completely out of no where when everyone moved on 12 hours later. Dever's has really improved since they called up Chavis. I don't know why, but he just stopped commiting so many errors. I've had my worries but he looks very good, even seems to have lost some weight. If the last like 70 games are the true Dever's he's an above average guy at 3B. Where is Workman's elite fastball? Per fangraphs 92.5, 91.6, and 93.2 the last three years. 93.2 is likely below average for a reliever in today's game. What he is doing is throwing less fastballs and more curve balls, FB last three years 51.2%, 38.9%, and 33.2%, curve balls 23.7%, 36.7%, and this year 47.4%. Three years ago he was throwing his fastball and cut fastball over 75% of the time, now he is throwing his curve almost 50% of the time. That is the huge difference in Workman, he evolved as a pitcher, not he regained extra velocity to an elite level. The little he gained is likely because he is throwing so many less per game. It looks better because hitters aren't sitting on it like they used too. I'm all for arguing a point you really believe in, but if you want to always throw around when you're right, you need to admit when you're wrong. Us regular posters will most times be right just as much as we are wrong, we post that much and debate that many things. -I never admit I'm always right. -I never said Workman had a elite fastball, I said he has shown plus velocity. Meaning, he has shown his best velocity in years. He's topping out at 95 mph this year. He hasn't done this since, what, 2013? -Devers has improved to a degree, but DRS suggests he still is a below average defender. I was wrong about Workman. He came back strong with a better fastball years later after Tommy John surgery. The better fastball is what helped his secondaries. Devers still might not be a great third baseman ever, but the Sox will probably stick with him at 3rd base to keep him happy, which I didn't agree with before and probably now. I would like to see better defense out of third base. Add- www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519443&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=08/21/2019Wrong initially about him topping out at 95 mph. I guess he's done that a few times in the years past, but his average velocity is literally the best we have ever seen from Workman, even before Tommy John Surgery, ever since May started. This is why he's better this year and looks like pre Tommy John surgery Brandon Workman. Second add- Go check out Workman's average velocity in 2018. It was clocked in at 91 mph all year. That's the biggest reason why he is bad that year and why I suggested that he could lose a roster spot at some point before the season started.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 9:48:40 GMT -5
If you have a terrible offense, it's not going to matter. If you have a great offense, these things tend to pop up as problems when trying to figure out at what this team needs to work on. The Yankees are the second best team at leaving less runners in scoring position. They are finding ways to drive them in. I may be in the minority here too but I think a lot of situational hitting is luck. I don’t think it’s like these guys try harder from one at bat to another. Sure there is stuff like moving the guy over from 2nd with 0 out on a grounder to 2B, but I don’t think things change for the hitter if there’s a guy on 3rd vs if there isn’t a guy on 3rd as far as trying to knock them in goes. I don’t think they focus more To a degree, it can be. Like you're not always going to put the ball in play, you're not always going to do what you want with hitting the baseball. But there's the good old saying of shortening your swing. Guys are trying to do too much in this regard. If you're one of the worst teams in the league at leaving runners in scoring position, then you need to find ways to fix that. That's all.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 9:39:15 GMT -5
That. The. Sox. Hit. Better. Situationally. I suggest that they win every game. < slightly more useless comment. GREAT COMMENT!!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 21, 2019 9:37:17 GMT -5
If you have a terrible offense, it's not going to matter. If you have a great offense, these things tend to pop up as problems when trying to figure out at what this team needs to work on. The Yankees are the second best team at leaving less runners in scoring position. They are finding ways to drive them in. Yeah but again, when you call the Sox the 23rd best team situational hitting last year are you discussing total #s or %? Because % changes a bunch of things and it’s the most accurate measure of what you’re looking for if you want to compare the number across the league There's no stat that I can see to look up that.
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