SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 26, 2023 16:18:50 GMT -5
Having looked at the numbers in more detail ... as good as Greg Allen has been as a base-stealer, Mondesi is better. I missed spotting the B-Ref column that gives SB opportunities and was guessing at the numbers, incorrectly.
Mondesi has had 368 opportunities to steal second or third and has attempted 159, which is 43%. When you consider how rarely guys on second steal third, that's crazy.
He's attempted 114 steals of second: 95 SB, 10 caught outright, 9 picked off and caught. That's an 83% success rate.
He's attempted 45 steals of third and has been caught 7 times. That's an 84% success rate. That's in fact probably too many attempts.
Mondesi has only been picked off outright once. That might indicate that he won't benefit much from the new rules, since he already has a great sense of how big a lead he can take. It's going to be interesting to see how then rule plays out.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2023 4:49:06 GMT -5
From what I just saw RT'd, yikes Well, I just read the Bible passage he cited and it's quite reasonable. It says that sexual perverts will not inherit the Kingdom of God. (You know, like a sizable percentage of the Catholic clergy.)
It's Kermody and not Jesus who has classified homosexuals as perverts. Which, of course, is demonstrably false, in numerous ways.
I was friendly with the great science fiction and horror author Thomas M. Disch (better known as the author of The Brave Little Toaster.). He was in a loving gay relationship for decades, and he took his own life about a year after his partner died, when, in his absence, he couldn't deal with new life stressors. I really want this guy canceled off the roster.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2023 4:31:55 GMT -5
Now that they've traded Taylor and are down to 1 LHR (and maybe Paxton in a multi-inning role), and there's talk of adding a FA LHR, it's worth noting that three of the four pitching NRI's are lefty relievers.
If they're high on all 3 it's probably safe to say that they'd be comfortable not adding anyone and letting the trio fight it out in ST.
Projected pitching staff is at present down to 13 guys, one less than usual, and should probably add LHR Acquisition or NRI.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2023 4:17:26 GMT -5
”I’m going to look into returning to a new girlfriend.“ . . . Well, you are living with a former wife. Not whom I had in mind.
While we're going off-topic, why does the day where we finally acquire a very useful middle-infielder (and DFA Barnes!) have to coincide with the Oscar nominations release? Film is one of the four things* that I'm more into than baseball. So the next day is devoted to updating my watchlist to add all the nominees that weren't among the top 50 films of the year according to criticstop10.com.
* Yes, that's true.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2023 4:05:59 GMT -5
So how badly did he struggle in AA? His PAC fell to .286. There were 286 guys with 250+ PA, and he would have ranked 169th, which is 41st percentile. Below average, but by no means a disaster.
In the AFL he got his PAC up to .351, which would have been 68th percentile in AA.
List of guys in MLB who were between .359 and .343 last year:
Paul Goldschmidt Ketel Marte Christian Yelich George Springer Jake Cronenworth Bryce Harper Santiago Espinal Mookie Betts Christian Walker Kolten Wong Pete Alonso
What's the correlation between AFL PAC's and MLB PAC's? Wouldn't it stand to reason that the list of players who were between .343 and .359 in MLB would have absolutely crushed it in the AFL at age 24? Which might imply that Kavadas is good trade bait and unlikely to post between .343 and .359 PAC's at the MLB level, no? The point was simply that some great hitters have a PAC like what Kavados had in the AFL. Hence, he doesn't need to return to his elite A-ball PAC to have a successful career -- just maintain the AFL level of control as he moves up the latter to MLB.
Sure, at 23 he was a year older than his average teammate, but that's not uncommon for a college guy.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 25, 2023 1:09:42 GMT -5
Mondesi is a terrific base-stealer -- not quite as great as Greg Allen, but with more experience stealing third, which might compensate for the difference (numbers may follow in a day or two). So he fills that need as well as adding a third middle-infielder. This, BTW, has ramifications for the rest of the roster, specifically the last spot ... see that thread.
He hasn't played 2B since 2018, and he's a career +10 or +11 per 150 G at SS. Given that Kiké doesn't seem to mind moving around, Mondesi has to be at SS and Kiké at 2B when both are in the lineup. They'll probably do that that whenever Bello starts, often when Whitlock does, and occasionally otherwise, depending on the opposing starter. This is consistent with Bloom re-iterating that Kiké is the main SS.
At the plate ... Mondesi's age 20 and 21 seasons were predictably bad, so we toss them.
He's a classic can't-hit-good-pitching guy. He has 7.3 career WAR (starting in 2018) but loses 2.3 from that inability.
His last 2 seasons had such small sample sizes that I'm not sure that including them yields correct answers. But from 2018 to 2020 he had 77, 75, and 70 OPS+ in Late and Close (74 overall), versus 103 Ordinary and 88 Blowout.
(The full splits are 81 / 99 / 67. His Blowout split by years: 137, 77, 40, -32, -100 (= 0/4). I see a lot of guys who don't seem to be trying when it doesn't matter, more so in the last few years than before -- a topic for further analysis.)
His career does break down into two parts: 3.7 sWAR / 600 in 2018 and 2019, and 1.5 since then, with only 2021 above replacement level. If it looks like he's turning back into the former, they can of course run with that. But I don't think they signed him for that -- he's a killer pinch-runner who can, when needed, be part of either a great infield defense, or a great overall one when Kiké moves to CF, and he's a solid doesn't-suck guy when injuries put him into the starting lineup.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2023 23:27:23 GMT -5
Just because no one would ever claim him (and his contract) on waivers doesn't mean they can't trade him.
Once he clears waivers, he can go anywhere he wants to. But it would be a good move for a non-contender to acquire him before that happens, and hope he has some trade value at the deadline.
If I'm a a GM of a team that fits that description, I call the Sox and offer them something minor if they'll pay all but $700K of the salary. Maybe the Sox get more than one such call.
That's right, they may be able to wangle another PTBNL or Cash Considerations for him.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2023 22:16:03 GMT -5
Damn, I thought I was done running all my custom numbers for players! Not to mention looking at all the available ones in way too much detail.
I'll let you know what I think in a bit. But if I'm right about Duran he's the last position player on the 26-man. Right now I'd take the current projected roster and put Duran at 2B, Kiké at SS, and Mondesi on the bench instead of Tapia. Mondesi is the (perhaps loose) platoon partner at 2B. Would they have him at SS and Kiké at 2B when they face a LHP? Quite possibly.
You'll see him a lot in the 9th inning with a lead, batting 1st (so really 10th and hence not in the middle of any rally if they need one), with Kiké in CF and Duvall in LF -- a defensive upgrade at 3 positions.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2023 21:54:47 GMT -5
Before I saw the graphs I was thinking, he was always a sticky-stuff creation and so he's never going back to what he was, and they knew that and of course none us did.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2023 20:54:08 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind about Kavadas' strikeouts is that he takes tons of pitches and gets into two strike counts a lot. His swinging strike % was not high in A-Ball, and it was high but not disastrous in AA. I was inspired to do this research, using the 277 MLB hitters who had 300+ PA last year.
K% explains 3.2% of a hitter's wRC+.
BB% explains 16.8%.
In terms of predictive power, every walk you draw counterbalances four strikeouts.
The best single stat I could come up with involving both numbers is a form of K to BB ratio, where it's measured as walks per total of strikeouts and walks. It explains 18.3% of a hitter's wRC+. I decided to call this PAC, plate appearance control-- how much you rather than the pitcher is in charge.
Obviously, if you knew both the K and BB rates, that's more info than just their numbers relative to each other, and that gets you to explaining 21.0% of the hitter's success.
Kavados is the poster child for guys with a potentially misleading set of K and BB numbers -- one that PAC can make better sense of.
There were 292 players last year who had 200+ PA in A ball. Kavados was the leader in wRC+. He ranked 5th in BB rate and 196th in
K rate. Great and really bad. We can guess how good that combo is, but we know we're just guessing.
His PAC was .435, and that ranked 26th. That's 91st percentile.
When he was promoted to high-A his PAC fell all the way to .433. He again had a 186 wRC+ and would have led the league if he qualified. This time there were 272 hitters with 230 PA or more, and Kavados would have ranked 21st if he qualified.
So how badly did he struggle in AA? His PAC fell to .286. There were 286 guys with 250+ PA, and he would have ranked 169th, which is 41st percentile. Below average, but by no means a disaster.
In the AFL he got his PAC up to .351, which would have been 68th percentile in AA.
List of guys in MLB who were between .359 and .343 last year:
Paul Goldschmidt Ketel Marte Christian Yelich George Springer Jake Cronenworth Bryce Harper Santiago Espinal Mookie Betts Christian Walker Kolten Wong Pete Alonso
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2023 4:21:52 GMT -5
Eric Van wrote: "I may have been seriously following Red Sox prospects longer than anyone else on the board. I first became smitten with the topic by reading the prospect pages in the Red Sox Yearbook starting in 1962" Eric, you are a little behind me on following Red Sox prospects, but immeasurably ahead of me in your statistical sophistication. I started reading the minor league averages (top 10 in hitting and pitching with a short list of about 5 leaders in major categories, as I recall) in The Sporting News in the early 1950's. I was very frustrated by the lack of information. I had to be satisfied with the annual publications of major league and minor league statitstics (I do not remember when I began buying those Almanacs). I have every printed issue of Baseball America (except 2 in 1989 that were lost). I began watching Red Sox teams in the Carolina League when Carl Yastrzemski played in Raleigh (Class B) in 1959. That's all pretty amazing.
Yeah, it's hard to imagine that every prospect's OBP was entirely unknown until The Sporting News published the annual Guide with all the minor league stats, at the end of the season. I don't know what year I started buying it either (alog with the Register with everyone's annual and career stats), as i later bought everything back to 1962 used. But I have a whole story about waiting for the Guide to arrive so I could look up Bagwell's OBP at New Britain to find out how bad the trade was.
My dad took me to see Ted Williams in 1960, but my first specific baseball memory is of my Dad and Grandpop turning off the TV in disgust in the 9th inning of a blowout loss and turning it back on 10 or 15 minutes later to discover that Jim Pagliaroni was up with the bases full and the Sox only trailing by 4. Whereupon he hit a grand slam and the Sox ended up winning. Yup, down 12-5 with 2 outs and a man on first in the bottom of the ninth, and they won.
My first year as a fan, '62, a friend's dad took us to see the season-ending doubleheader. The Sox backup 1B, Don Gile, came into that day with 37 PA and an .000 / .081 / .001 line. He started both games so Pete Runnels could protect his batting title, and (although I wonder whether anyone knew it), he needed a hit to avoid surpassing Pirates' 1936 2B Hal Finney's futility record of of 0 for 35 with zero walks (still the mark for never reaching base).
He doubled in the first game and the crowd went crazy.
In the second game he came up with a man on and 1 out in the ninth, with the score tied 1-1, and hit a huge walk-off bomb to LF. The crowd filtered out in stunned disbelief.
And Gile never played in MLB again. I know I researched whether he's the only guy to have ended his career with a walk-off homer, but I've forgotten whether he is ... but if he isn't, he's definitely the worst hitter to have done so.
I tell these two stories for three reasons ...
1) To entertain the youngsters on the board.
2) Because you may well remember them!
3) Because they go a long way towards explaining why I'm so smitten with the game -- I got two early lessons that anything can happen.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 23:22:56 GMT -5
[...]
Re Sale and Paxton, how much precedence is there for guys missing 3 full years, and not all because of a single arm injury? I think there's some assumption that they're going to be a bit rusty as a result of the layoff, and I'm not at all sure that this is the case. Procedural ("muscle") memory doesn't work that way. There's a reason that "it's like riding a bike" is a cliche.[...] It was a different game, but what about WWII and, more briefly, the Korean War? Top hitters didn't miss a beat at all after WWII.
Williams wRC+:
221
209 war ages 24-26
215 207
DiMaggio
167 181 143 war ages 28-30 142 152 158
Johnny Mize
174 159 158 war ages 30-32 184 156 155
I don't have a handy list for pitchers who missed '43 to '45, but hitting is harder than pitching.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 15:23:47 GMT -5
Ok, maybe you’re not buying that Duran has average OF defense potential. Again, I think a couple of atrocious plays and the media reaction might be clouding people’s judgement. I won’t pretend to know how Clay Davenport represents defensive metrics from the minors, but I was suprised to see Duran rated very well in CF at Worcester (his +9 led the team). At the major league level, Statcast only had Duran at -2 Outs Above Average showing improvement in arm strength from 2021 (86.7 mph avg) to 2022 (87.4 mph). Generally speaking, Duran graded well in terms of ‘reaction’ and ‘burst’, but poorly in ‘route.’ However, that balance tended to result in something closer to average defense than people may think – and again, I think its easier for a fan to notice and critique a poor route as opposed to reactions or bursts. In my argument that they're planning on a Duran / Arroyo platoon at 2B -- which I think is freakishly strong when you read between the lines of Cora's description of his current status and projected role -- I admit to being a little disingenuous about his defense. I was well aware of his Statacast numbers for plays made. It is worth pointing out that it's likely -7 runs per 150 games, which is not at all good. But not hopeless, either.
When you add his Arm rating (averaging UZR and DRS) and add DRS's good / bad plays made, you do get -12 runs per 150 G, which is unacceptable (historically there's a big drop-off for fielders below -10; that seems to be the number that corresponds to the subjective assessment that a guy simply can't play his position). If we had the equivalent of WPA for defense, and hence a situational adjustment, his runs per 150 would crater.
But I think all of these extra negatives are either largely psychological, and / or or the result of inexperience, and of course the latter fuels the former. He has the arm strength to play CF but often rushed his throws and missed the cutoff man. I would guess that his -1 run in DRS's "stuff nobody counts but we do" metric is his failure to back up other fielders and thus allowing runners to advance, and maybe failing to cut off hits and prevent singles from becoming doubles.
I think getting him out of CF and back to a position he's comfortable in is a smart move, for the very reasons you talk about. It's hard to play a position knowing that everyone thinks you can't. The Clay Davenport numbers are very interesting and suggest that a lot of the -7 plays made per 150 games was psychological in origin. He could end up as either a starting 2B or a 10th man, in either case as a guy who can play CF when needed.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 14:29:22 GMT -5
First, if the Duvall roster spot was going to be created by a DFA, they would have done that already, right? So they're trying to trade someone.
Duran is going to be the starting 2B (platoon with Arroyo) -- read my last 2 posts in the Rest of the Offseason thread.
Dalbec is the only guy on the 40-man who can be an up-and-down guy if Turner, Casas, or Devers needs to go on the IL, and even if you had 40-man depth at corner infielder, selling low on him makes no sense.
If you look at the pitching depth chart, it's pretty clear that Brasier is the guy they're trying to move. He's out of options and, though still useful, is thus blocking two even better pitchers.
---- optional detail with stats
The seven starters (including Houck) begin the pitching depth chart. Jansen, Martin, and Rodriguez are acquisitions with no options left, Barnes has no options left and still projects as at least a 7th inning guy, and Schrieber is way too good to option. So now we're up to 12 guys for 13 spots.
Since Brasier is now out of options, if you keep him and everyone is healthy, he's the last guy in the pen, and that means using Taylor's last option and leaving yourself with 1 LHR.
Now, it's almost never the case that there's no one injured, which is why the projected roster here has always included one more pitcher than there are roster spots for. But lets see who would be called up depending on how many guys were on the IL, if you keep Brassier.
1 man hurt: add Taylor. Trading Brasier guarantees his spot, and opens up a spot for the next guy on the depth chart when 1 guy is hurt. And that guy is ...
2: Crawford as a multi-inning reliever. In his second stint last year, starting in mid-June, he had a .289 xwOBA and 3.33 ERA in his first 9 starts and a 5-inning bulk appearance, in 54 IP. He did get destroyed in his last 3 starts (.400 xwOBA, 12.08 ERA) but then went on the IL, so that certainly looks like pitching hurt. Brasier had 62.1 IP in his whole season and had a .309 xwOBA.
Pitching in relief improves your numbers, so it's easy to argue that you'd rather have Crawford on the staff than Brasier. Which is to say, if you trade Brasier and 1 guy is hurt, you're better off because you've replaced him with Crawford as the last man in the pen.
3. Wyatt Mills, who had a .315 xwOBA (and .299 wOBA; Brasier had a .336). They traded for him and obviously like him. If you trade Brasier, he's the guy who's on the roster whenever 2 guys are hurt, which is pretty common.
------- proceed to conclusion
Brasier is the 16h best pitcher they have, behind Crawford and Mills (or vice versa if you prefer), but since he's out of options, he is blocking them unless a bunch of guys get hurt. Trading him makes the team better.
In terms of deeper depth, you still have Winckowski, Kelly, German, and Ort, and further in the season you'll add Mata, Walter, and Murphy. The odds that you'll miss Brasier are slim.
HOW I COULD BE WRONG
It's possible that they have a much higher frequency of pitcher IL trips projected. If 3 guys hurt at once is common (the way I think 2 is), then both Crawford and Mills will see lots of time in MLB and Brasier as the 16th guy may be someone you want to keep around. In that case they're shopping someone else, perhaps Abreu as they've added so many NRI outfielders. And in that case, they might decide that no one is offering enough and DFA Ort after all.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2023 5:22:39 GMT -5
I donât think there is much chance Duran is starting at 2b. First, heâd be leapfrogging Arroyo, who is a decent player when healthy. Second, he is a guy who would need to do a lot of improving offensively â while returning to a new, difficult position. I think it is more likely they get him reps at 2b to showcase him for a trade than actually plug him in. I like him, and I hope he gets it together, but he looked *awful*. "Returning to a new position" is quite a trick, isn't? Inspired, I'm going to look into returning to a new girlfriend.
Duran almost certainly played SS right through high school. He played 55 games at 2B for Long Beach State in 2016 and another 33 for Walla Walla in the summer West Coast League. The next year, 57 games for Long Bach and 31 for Wareham in the Cape Cod League. He played 56 more at Long Beach the year we drafted him and another 20 for Lowell before someone decided that he could be a GG candidate center fielder with his speed and an ordinary ability to run routes. Alas, he turned out to have no such ability at all.
252 games at 2B at a high level. And based on both my knowledge of neuroscience and personal experience, there's very little re-learning curve. Maybe 30 minutes the first time you go back there, even after 4.5 years off, to get the general hang of things. A lot of what he'd be doing this winter is adapting the known "muscle memory" to a completely different physique.
Meanwhile, please give me the explanations for the following.
a) On Januray 11, after the Story news broke. Alex Cora told Matt Voutour of maslive.com "[Duran] has a chance to get a lot of at-bats. We know the player. We know what he can do. ... He's still dynamic. He's young and he's learning. ... I know last year was an up-and-down year for him. Not only physically, on the field, but mentally. We've been talking to him throughout the offseason. He's in a good place. Hopefully when he gets to spring training, he's ready to rock."
There are five things in this statement that make sense only if Cora is talking about 2B rather than CF.
How does he get "a lot of at bats" while sharing the 4th outfielder spot with Refsnyer (and maybe backup middle infielder with Niko Goodrum)?
What is it that they "know what he can do," when it's all too clear that he can't play CF?
If you were just giving him encouragement about getting better at CF, why would you be talking to him "throughout the offseason"? That's something you do when someone is working on something and giving progress reports. And if they were still having him work at being better in CF (for some secret reason), why no winter ball?
How do you get into "a good place" if you're still playing CF, without some crazy defensive breakthrough (and if that had happened, why not say so?) OTOH, being free of the angt of trying and failing at CF and returning to the position you grew up playing would put you in a very good place, especially if you were discovering you could do a solid job there. It's just a huge relief.
And finally, "ready" is also a term that makes little sense if he's just working on becoming a merely bad CFer. "Ready" implies getting a set of skills down, checking all the boxes, in this case the likes of covering 2B on a steal, turning the DP, and so on.
b) They've made Kiké the SS when the best player they can add, Andrus, is a SS ... and in fact Josh Harrison is the best available 2B.
In your scenario, they're opting to use Kiké at his less familiar position in order to a) downgrade the bench middle infielder from Arroyo to Niko Goodrum, b) have Goodrum on the roster instead of Andrus or Iglesias, and c) use Duran as an up-and-down guy whenever Kiké, Arroyo, or Goodrum goes on the IL. You're basically arguing that Goodrum is ahead of Duran on the 2B depth chart (even though you admit they may well be showcasing him at 2B, which would requite him to be playing everyday in AAA), and you're proposing a scenario which obviously makes the team less good.
Oh, and you're also arguing that Alex Cora is delusional. He can't be pumping up Duran's trade value because a trade before the season begins leaves you with no MLB-ready middle-infielder on the 40 man. So the first time Kiké, Arroyo, or Goodrum goes on the IL you have call up Valdez or Hamilton and hope they're not awful.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2023 16:08:53 GMT -5
Looking forward to antics!! I love loose and goofy. The thing is, on the well-known Verdugo / J.D. Drew Scale for on-field behavior, he's very much closer to the latter. Ditto for the interview that so knocked me out -- all business, and preternaturally level-headed and self-aware.
This other side of him just impresses me further. I wouldn't call it "goofy" so much ... he seems to have a Bill Murray sort of sense of humor. Offbeat for sure.
I don't think it's possible to overestimate the importance of intelligence in hitting. Papi was Papi in large part because he was better than almost anyone else at figuring out what pitch was likely in key situations. If Jim Rice could have done that to any extent, he would have been Miguel Cabrera.
I may have been seriously following Red Sox prospects longer than anyone else on the board. I first became smitten with the topic by reading the prospect pages in the Red Sox Yearbook starting in 1962, and they of course always plugged every kid as a potential star (who else remembers Gage Naudain?). And after a couple of years, a lot of those predictions turned out to be correct! ("He may be the Red Sox next 20-game winner" -- Jim Lonborg hype). I started doing sabermetrics in 1972 and subscribed first to The Sporting News and then BA almost from the beginning.
It's a tough call given Raffy Dever's surreal bat-to-ball skill, but I think Casas is the best Red Sox hitting prospect in my memory. A big part of that is his 80 brain tool.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2023 14:20:32 GMT -5
Eric, the problem I see with this Duran theory is that he kinda sucks at the plate. If he transitions pretty well to 2B and is only five runs below average then we still have ourselves a lousy ballplayer. The last two years he had a 126 wRC+ in 590 PA in AAA -- and a 78 in 223 PA in MLB. The latter, of course, is way less than expected given the former.
So, the immediate reaction is, he can hit AAA pitching but not MLB pitching. Which is to say, the AAA stats were pumped up by killing the below-average AAA pitchers. We used to think that there was no such thing as "AAAA" hitters, but that was before we figuured out that some hitters hit good pitching better than others. So Duran looks like one at first glance.
But his MLB career splits not only don't support that, they somewhat suggest the opposite.
Score Splits (Late and Close / Ordinary / Blowout)
88 / 73 / 71 (39, 167, 54 PA respectively)
Yes, tiny sample size, but we were hypothesizing a steep split the other way.
This next split doesn't measure that, but it's probably more informative.
RISP / Man on 1B only / Bases Empty:
101 / 87 / 61 (in 71 / 88 / 201 PA).
If someone put ups a 93 OPS+ with runners on base (in 159 PA), and a 61 (in 201) with the bases empty ... that strikes me as unlikely to be random (something I hope to verify sometime soon). It looks like someone changing their approach with the bases empty. Data confirms that (big difference in average lauch angle, for starters); that'll be part of the further look.
Given all this, league-average offense vs. RHP would be a very reasonable hope. The new rules will make him more of a base-stealing threat, too.
If Story is going to be back before season's end as he maintains, then using Duran as the stopgap and finding out whether he has a future at 2B makes a lot of sense. Even if his ceiling is league-average you want to explore that.
My take on whats going on really does explain stuff that makes no sense otherwise. If it's true, then the Sox have come to the same conclusion.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2023 0:22:46 GMT -5
A lot of the recent discussion belongs in the projection thread. From the 40-man thread: Tapia and Allen signed minor league deals. No need to jettison Duran for them unless and until they prove they need a 40-man spot. And maybe they have plans for Duran at 2nd? Maybe they trade him? But no way to the DFA. I had a thought today that struck me at first as over the top and way outside the box ... but the more I think about it, the more it explains everything.
Jarren Duran has been working out at 2B since the end of end of last season, with the goal being to find him a position he could play. (If anyone needs that idea defended, say so and I'll do it.) When they first heard the Story news, the goal became his starting at 2B this year (in a platoon with Arroyo).
They are monitoring his progress and so far it is sufficient. If he hits a wall before establishing that he can play the position well enough, they can obtain a middle infielder to fill out that roster spot. But we are presumably approaching the point where they go public with the plan.
Why the secrecy? Given the local media, and the possibility that the attempt might well fail ... do you really have to have me answer that? Zero scrutiny, zero attention paid -- that's what you want. The last thing you want is everyone saying "Jarren Duran fails again" and "Chaim Bloom makes another mistake."
This explains:
1) Why Alex Cora seems so high on him. Gee, what was Cora's position? Given that Duran ended last season in a fly-ball butchering mess and did not play winter ball, what other explanation is there?
2) Why they have been consistently identifying Kiké as the new SS. The obvious thing to do was to have him be the new 2B, a position he has played much more than SS, while obtaining a new SS, where Andrus was an attractive option. But they've had Kiké at SS from the start of the no-Story ordeal.
3) Why they've shown little or no apparent interest in all the names we've been throwing out for SS and 2B ... or even acknowledged that they need someone to replace Story.
Wendle was pursued early, before the Story injury, when the obvious thing to do was leave Kiké in CF and just get the best 1-year SS available.
But when Story went down, the principal need became getting a RHB who could hit 2, 4, or 6. There were no SS who fit that bill, but Duvall did, and that means Kiké in the middle infield. And at that point in time, Duran was looking like he could play 2B ... and all else follows.
Duran would hit 8th, between Verdugo (maybe Casas to start the season) and McGuire (arcane reasons redacted). Very little pressure to hit there. If he rakes, you swap him with McGuire, as generally your weakest hitter should hit 8.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 16:38:54 GMT -5
Arenât you the one who says listen to them? They made it sound highly unlikely Iglesias is in the mix. Kiké is the SS. Frankly I'd sign Iglesias as a backup to Kiké and Arroyo. You have to figure that Arroyo will miss time and Kiké will need a backup, and I prefer Iglesias to Niko Goodrum. But like you said, there's been very little connecting the Sox to Iglesias. There's been more smoke about Josh Harrison. I think with the 1 yard line comment, that's in reference to finalizing Duvall. I do think the Sox will get another middle infielder before spring training. It's true that Rafaela may be in the picture by the trade deadline, and that makes the difference between Iglesias and Goodrum less important, if it comes to that. They may really like Goodrum, too (I have no interest in figuring out why this might be true, if it is).
There is no reason, however, why they can't sign Andrus despite only having only $12M left, about $4M of which might go as potential bonuses. You just sign him to an $8M deal with an $8M 2024 option and a $4M or even $5M buyout. Same stunt they used with Turner. You would expect Boros to drag that conversation out.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 16:20:40 GMT -5
I am not suggesting I am a huge fan of this, but don't overlook the Alfaro signing. Once he is added to the 40-man it effectively gives them 3 catchers and makes Wong available for some time at 2B. Are they planning to add Alfaro to the 40 man right now? Unless he looks much better than Wong in the spring I'd think they'll wait as long as possible to do that. I think he's catcher-to 60-day-IL insurance. Savvy move, because neither of other AAA catchers seem suitable for even a regular backup role.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 16:15:17 GMT -5
Preemptive complaints! Those are always fun... What is the "streak" of selling low? There's Benintendi, and...?
In any case, the only rumor I'm aware of is Cotillo's reporting not that the Red Sox are shopping Houck but that other teams have expressed significant interest (and the Red Sox are willing to listen), which would imply that his value is not in fact at a low ebb. Cotillo also suggests that an extension for Houck is more likely than a trade.
For the record, I don't want to trade him either. The players I'd potentially be willing to part with would be Pivetta, Verdugo, Arroyo, Dalbec, Duran, and any prospect below Bleis.
I think it is actually possible they’d be selling high. I like Houck a lot, but I am still not convinced he is a starter. He doesn’t look like he has a pitch with great separation velocity-wise, which to me is more a relief profile. I think he could be dominant in a role like Whitlock’s. But if another team is willing to pay a starter’s price for him, I’d listen. Velo separation between FB and changeup or splitter is so unimportant that it's not worth worrying about.
But if you insist on worrying, the weakest separation is MLB average, and less than that is actually a positive (although not as much as slower is). Houck's splitter was 7.7 mph slower than his 4-seamer last year, on the hard side and a very good difference.
As I've pointed out ad nausem, Houck's 4-seamer and sinker have such different movement that they really qualify as two pitches. In his career so far all four of his pitchers have been clearly better than average in terms of results.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 15:15:03 GMT -5
We now have two sets of projections, Steamer and THE BAT, and via ERA they have Sale as the #1 starter, Whitlock edging Bello for #2, Paxton as #4, and Kluber edging Pivetta for #5.
Of course, projections for Sale and Paxton are guesses, and they had two of the three big differences between the two sources. The third was Bello; I think Steamer is (correctly) tossing out his first stint and THE BAT is not. Projections don't know that Whitlock was pitching injured almost the whole year or that Kluber was among the leaders for not relying on the shift. Or that Bello will be adding Rich Hill's curve, etc.
A nice waste of my time would be to correlate all the projections of free agents with the deals they got. I bet that there's almost none once you get past the sought-after guys. Steamer has Hill 0.28 better than Kluber.
FWIW (the paper it's printed on, I'd guess), Steamer has Sale as a good #2, Bello as a good #3, Whitlock as a #3 on the #4 borderline, Paxton as a pure #4, and Kluber and Pivetta as #5 on the #6 borderline. (That's by ERA rank of the top 150+ pitchers by projected GS.)
----
Re Sale and Paxton, how much precedence is there for guys missing 3 full years, and not all because of a single arm injury? I think there's some assumption that they're going to be a bit rusty as a result of the layoff, and I'm not at all sure that this is the case. Procedural ("muscle") memory doesn't work that way. There's a reason that "it's like riding a bike" is a cliche.
I bet I'm not the only one here who's had the experience of going years without exercising a physical skill they were very good at and discovering they still had it. In my case, it was jump shots from near 3-point range (unguarded), and I believe I had nearly a 35-year gap. I hit my second shot.
Granted, it was an unintended bank shot, but a few shots later I heard the first very satisfying swish. How many more reps have Sale and Paxton had?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 21, 2023 6:44:24 GMT -5
" ... and we want to keep going with that." That's the really important thing Bloom said while obliquely pointing out that they've finally signed a Xander replacement in Duvall. (And yes, that's a big downgrade, but Yoshida for JBJ / Pham more than counterbalances it. As does Casas for Dallbec / Franchy and a bunch of other moves.)
Now, the last thing left to do is find a temporary replacement for Story, and having a ST battle between Niko Goodrum and Josh Harrison (if the rumors are true) when Elvis Andrus is available would be pure malpractice. And that's what he's talking about with the bolded text.
My guess now that the Marlins were willing to trade Joey Wendle depending on whether they could get Arraez from the Twins, and that's what the holdup has been. Which is to say, Wendle is the Sox choice 1 and Andrus is the backup plan.
The crazy thing is, I can see the choice the Marlin's now make both ways.
1) Adding Arraez makes them more of a contender, so they are now unwilling to trade their projected starting SS Wendle. FG (which is to say, Steamer until ZiPS arrives) has them finishing 4 G behind the second WC, so they're a borderline contender.
2) The Jordan Groshans theory. Taken 12th in the draft by the Blue Jays in 2018, he was a consensus top 50 prospect after the missing COVID year. He hit well in AA in '21 after a slow start, but the merely good overall numbers and the increasing sense that he would end up at 3B instead of SS knocked him down in the ratings (e.g., 80 in Pipeline). This last year he again split time between SS and 3B, and got off to a great start in AAA (.874 OPS in 85 PA). He then cratered completely, .548 in 194 PA, and was traded at the deadline to the Marlins for two relievers having very good years, Antony Bass and Zach Pop.
He had a .535 OPS in his first 26 PA with his new team and then ignited: .330 / .421 / .462 in 107 PA, earning him a promotion to the show, whereupon he hit .348 / .400 / .478 in his first 25 big league PA. And then (and you can probably see this coming) he had a .461 OPS the rest of the way, in 40 PA. All of that was at 3B, as they had Rojas at SS.
Now, they know Wendle is gone a year from now, and Kahlil Watson's bad year suggests that they might have a few years of SS need, at least. You would think that they might want to give Groshans a serious shot at SS while trying to cure him of his fresh new case of JBJ disease, no? And you can get a prospect or two for Wendle, and with luck might even upgrade the position. You're a .500 club rolling the dice to contend, and at the same time it's the best course for the future.
And in fact they traded Rojas, and signed Jean Segura to play 3B. Does it make sense to trade to Rojas's walk year in order to get Wendle's walk year instead? Does it make sense to sign Segura in order to send Groshans to the middle-infield bench, where they already have John Berti to do a decent job?
The one catch is that Groshans hits righty, and if he and not Wendle is the starting SS, that leaves them with just two LHB in the starting lineup. Before the trade those 2 guys were 2B Jazz Chisholm (projected OPS .769, but coming off .860) and CF Jesus Sanchez (.749 projected but coming off .682). The trade replaces Sanchez with Arraez (.778 projected, coming off .795), which they see as a big upgrade, as they're moving Chisholm to CF, even though he's never played an inning there. Sanchez is now on the bench if they want to get an extra LHB in the lineup, which frees them to trade Wendle, who was the pre-trade equivalent in this scenario where they are actually committing to trying Groshans at SS.
Baseball Trade Simulator has Bonaci getting Wendle even-up (and have him ranked the same way SP does). Valdez would work if you're looking to not have to make a 40-man move, as would Hamilton and someone ranked about 40th. I have no idea how realistic these are. But they'd be interested, I think, in Valdez as a bat-first guy who hits lefty and might help them in the second half.
1) OTOH, the Arraez trade doesn't seem all that smart to me, and Arraez is a bad defensive 2B, so do you really want to pair him with a guy who projects to be just OK at SS? That brings us back to option 1; they want Wendle at SS because he's a safer bet and they think they're genuine contenders that way.
1 +3) OTOH, could it be that Groshans is also a guy we've talked about, and is now the guy we're trading for? They may have waited until the Arraez trade was completed because the Twins were interested in him. I wouldn't bank on him as the new SS, but you could sign Andrus and trade Chris Murphy for Groshans. That gives you a 40-man SS.
The thing is, what they did in the off-season either opened up a spot for Groshans or pretty much buried him. So adding him to Worcester would be doable if it's the latter case. There's no knowing whether they're high on him, though.
My guess is that we sign Andrus and someone else trades for Groshans.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 14:39:18 GMT -5
Don’t want to jumble items up but it’s still the off-season here basically asking the crowd on two completely speculative items below Verdugo and Mata for Pablo Lopez. Pivetta and Duran for Anthony Santander. Does the crowd like those trades and does the crowd think the other teams says yes? I think these two items would only make sense for us if they happen together and in conjunction with an Andrus signing at SS. Then we have the ultimate flexibility with Hernandez, Duvall, Arroyo switching around Santander has been way better defensively in RF (just average) than LF where he was atrocious last year Sale/Lopez/Whitlock/Kluber/Bello with Paxton/Houck possibly as a quasi 6 man rotation with those last two going 3 innings each together then giving an inning in relief some other time between that start I just feel the trades are about to start and be done with right before spring training It's always been a shaky idea to trade either Duran or Dalbec now, because you're selling low. But there's a bigger reason, which I went into in detail in the Last Man on the Bench thread.
The short version is that you have to have some guys in AAA that you can call up when someone goes on the IL, and whose development will not be harmed by the callup.
We have precisely two such guys -- Duran and Dalbec. If you trade Duran, the moment any outfielder goes on the IL, or any 2B or SS, you have to either promote a guy who is not yet ready for MLB and have him mostly sit on the bench watching other people play, or you have to make a 40-man move to open a spot for one of the guys who was an NRI in ST.
Note that by the time you get to the trade deadline, some of those guys on option should be MLB-ready, and hopefully Duran and Dalbec will have restored their trade value.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 14:24:24 GMT -5
Let's start with SB. Tapia is good: per 600 PA, 15.8 steals of second with 4.2 CS, and 1.3 steals of third and 0.6 caught stealing.
Allen is 30.0 steals of second with 5.2 CS, and 3 steals of third with 0 CS. He's a great base stealer.
(Allen has probably had more PR appearances, but Tapia has a higher career OBP.)
Tapia has played mostly in LF (2587 innings) and has been league average on the nose. That projects to -5 per 150 G in RF and his actual figure is -23 (which is -30 in CF), in 460 innings. He's had 430 innings in CF and for some unfathomable reason has been +12 per, when -12 is what you'd expect from an average LF. I don't think you want to count on him being an adequate defender in CF going forward, but you'd certainly take a look at him in ST to see if there's some real reason behind this madness.
Allen's stats make much more sense. He has 966 innings in CF and has been +2 per. In RF he's had 269 innings and has been +12 per (= +7 in CF); in LF he has 587 innings and has been +18 per, which is +6 in CF. He's probably a +3 in CF, maybe +4.
Finally, hitting. Allen has a small edge in career xwOBA .292 to .285. Allen has .001 karma (wOBA-xwOBA) while Tapia has .025, so he has been a somewhat better hitter in results. So I decided to break down each guy's karma by batted ball type.
I have to preface this by stating that I do not not cut my newborn binkies slack. Andrus really took off at the plate when he was moved to leadoff, and based on his career numbers I had reason to believe that he would benefit from seeing better pitches. In which case, he'd be great hitting 9th for us. It turned out, however, that he actually got worse pitches to hit after the promotion. I then checked his stats starting with his first off-season, and the rationale for hitting better in such situations disappeared. So it was just a hot streak. I still like him, but I'm not hot on him like zi was (and probably like Wendle a bit better).
So ... Tapia's positive karma looks like luck, while Allen seems likely to have legit positive karma from beating out grounders, but seems to have had it negated by what looks like bad luck on liners and balls hit to CF -- the same two things that Tapia looks lucky on. Hitting line drives to places where fielder's aren't doesn't seem like a credible skill, nor does hitting fly balls to CF that are or aren't hit more or less at the center fielder look like a real skill or lack of same. That both guys have matching results in these two buckets is interesting, and in a vacuum borders on the statistically significant, but without an expectation of, or explanation for, a correlation, you always bet on the random. (I'll probably do an analysis to see if there are any unexpected correlations of karma across batted ball types, though).
So right now it looks like they're more or less equal as hitters, and maybe Allen is a bit better. He doesn't hit the ball as hard as Tapia but hits a bit more liners and fewer grounders.
(If anyone wants the numbers on that karma analysis, I can go into that detail.) As far as offense goes, Tapia has a career wRC+ of 80 vs. 72 for Allen. Does xwOBA take into account park and league factors? I thought not but maybe I’m wrong. I’m also not sure over an entire career it’s more predictive for next season. Besides that, the real thing for me with Allen’s offense is that I have no clue what to make of his massive outlier year with the Yankees, but obviously that boosts his career numbers while Tapia has been a bit more consistent. I think I agree with you that Allen is my favorite for the spot, mostly because of the defense / pinch runner edge, but if Tapia can actually handle center well (maybe some guys just read the ball off the bat better there) he’s got a good case. I agree with you that you'd want to understand the Tapia CF mystery. He may get much better reads when he's looking straight at the hitter than off at an angle.
We also don't know just how much the new rules will impact base stealing. It's possible that it collapses the edge that Allen has on Tapia. So Tapia is definitely in the competition here.
xwOBA is purely ball off the bat, EV and launch angle. I've been thinking and writing (for my own benefit) about the challenge of creating accurate park adjustments and they need to be regarded as approximations, with many significant confounding variables that are very difficult to control for.
|
|
|