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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 5:32:46 GMT -5
Yes. From a late December post in the team projections thread: Last year there were 159 pitchers who had 200+ PA without the shift. Wacha ranked 159th in xwOBA and 148th in wOBA. . Kluber ranked 29th (90th percentile) and 48th (81st %) respectively. He ranked 2nd (to Rodon) among FA SP.
I am curious where Pivetta ranks on those stats. It appears to me that the Sox plan is heavily oriented towards the rule changes. Pivetta was 87th in xwOBA and 84th in wOBA.
If you go to 150+ PA, Whitlock was 44th out of 259 (83rd percentile). If you go to 100+, Houck was 56 out of 404 (86th percentile), while Whitlock drops to 80th. These are #2 starter numbers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 5:15:21 GMT -5
Harrison is pretty good still, don't see why he wouldn't get a major league deal. Pretty good defender at 2B, projections give him a wRC+ in the mid 90s. I think he's about as good as Arroyo for next year. Through 2020 he was absolutely neutral as a situational hitter.
In 2021, at age 33, he had Score Splits (Late and Close / Ordinary / Blowout) of 62 / 103 / 148. That's the pattern of a guy who has started having trouble hitting good pitching and is making up for it by bearing down when pitchers are just trying to throw strikes. It knocked 0.8 situational wins off his 2.3 fWAR.
Last year he had a 74 / 91 / 134 split and moreover had a 69 OPS+ with RISP. That reduced his fading 1.4 WAR all the way to zero.
Projections don't know that he's fattening his numbers in garbage time. That players differ in their relative ability to hit good hitting is an established fact, and MLB teams are certainly tracking that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 4:46:45 GMT -5
Not sure what to make of Tapia's defensive numbers as by OAA he's been above average in center and was above or average in the corners every year until last year, he's also a lefty who steals some basis, and he's been generally a better hitter than Allen. Personally I think they're competing for this spot out of the gate, possibly with Duran, barring multiple further additions. Let's start with SB. Tapia is good: per 600 PA, 15.8 steals of second with 4.2 CS, and 1.3 steals of third and 0.6 caught stealing.
Allen is 30.0 steals of second with 5.2 CS, and 3 steals of third with 0 CS. He's a great base stealer.
(Allen has probably had more PR appearances, but Tapia has a higher career OBP.)
Tapia has played mostly in LF (2587 innings) and has been league average on the nose. That projects to -5 per 150 G in RF and his actual figure is -23 (which is -30 in CF), in 460 innings. He's had 430 innings in CF and for some unfathomable reason has been +12 per, when -12 is what you'd expect from an average LF. I don't think you want to count on him being an adequate defender in CF going forward, but you'd certainly take a look at him in ST to see if there's some real reason behind this madness.
Allen's stats make much more sense. He has 966 innings in CF and has been +2 per. In RF he's had 269 innings and has been +12 per (= +7 in CF); in LF he has 587 innings and has been +18 per, which is +6 in CF. He's probably a +3 in CF, maybe +4.
Finally, hitting. Allen has a small edge in career xwOBA .292 to .285. Allen has .001 karma (wOBA-xwOBA) while Tapia has .025, so he has been a somewhat better hitter in results. So I decided to break down each guy's karma by batted ball type.
I have to preface this by stating that I do not not cut my newborn binkies slack. Andrus really took off at the plate when he was moved to leadoff, and based on his career numbers I had reason to believe that he would benefit from seeing better pitches. In which case, he'd be great hitting 9th for us. It turned out, however, that he actually got worse pitches to hit after the promotion. I then checked his stats starting with his first off-season, and the rationale for hitting better in such situations disappeared. So it was just a hot streak. I still like him, but I'm not hot on him like zi was (and probably like Wendle a bit better).
So ... Tapia's positive karma looks like luck, while Allen seems likely to have legit positive karma from beating out grounders, but seems to have had it negated by what looks like bad luck on liners and balls hit to CF -- the same two things that Tapia looks lucky on. Hitting line drives to places where fielder's aren't doesn't seem like a credible skill, nor does hitting fly balls to CF that are or aren't hit more or less at the center fielder look like a real skill or lack of same. That both guys have matching results in these two buckets is interesting, and in a vacuum borders on the statistically significant, but without an expectation of, or explanation for, a correlation, you always bet on the random. (I'll probably do an analysis to see if there are any unexpected correlations of karma across batted ball types, though).
So right now it looks like they're more or less equal as hitters, and maybe Allen is a bit better. He doesn't hit the ball as hard as Tapia but hits a bit more liners and fewer grounders.
(If anyone wants the numbers on that karma analysis, I can go into that detail.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 0:44:40 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
[...] As has been pointed out several times, the Sox have not acted as though they wanted to maintain the ability to waive Brasier. They settled with him before arbitration, which means if they cut him they owe him the whole $2M. If they had gone to arbitration it might have been slightly more $, but they would have only had to pay a fraction of it if they cut him. He's not getting cut. or if he is cut, they have made a colossal blunder. Still remains to be seen if Chaim can figure out a way to trade three 40-man nickels for a dime I thought it went without saying that, given that we know exactly what the Sox think of Brasier, as you so helpfully point out, that they would trade him for fair value. The value that they have communicated so clearly to every other team.
Apparently it did not go without saying. Why exactly did your brain jump to waiving him as the form of his "leaving," when, as you so helpfully pointed out, that made no sense at all, while trading him would make perfect sense?
---
The further question is whether Brasier projects to be one of the 14 most valuable pitchers on the team. You have the 7 starters (including Houck), Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodriguez, and Taylor. That's 13. Someone is almost always on the IL, so who's the 14th regular?
It comes down, I think, to Brasier versus Kutter Crawford, and I'll definitely take the latter as a multi-inning reliever.
We still have Mills, Kelly, Ort, and German, and Mata, Walter, Murphy, and Winckowski on the 40-man, so trading Brasier does not significantly impact your depth. Mills, Kelly, and Winckowski have all been on the projected MLB roster this winter.
Furthermore, the ideal guy to shed is out of options and in his walk year, and both of those are true of Brasier. Everyone else I just mentioned (as guys not in the top 13) has options left, and they all have six years of control.
Double furthermore, lack of familiarity does favor the pitcher, so Brasier has more value to any NL club than to us.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 15:40:27 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
Next, I'll repeat my point that Duran needs to start the season playing everyday in AAA. You don't use a potential star who is struggling to get it together as the last man on an MLB bench. The same is true for Dalbec. In a bit we'll see why trading either is a bad idea.
If the last man is not an acquisition and not Dalbec or Duran, who does that leave? It has to be an NRI, using the 40-man spot opened up by Story going on the 60-day IL.
Initial roster construction ...
First, your bench always has a catcher, an outfielder, and a middle infielder. Who the last man is depends in part on the existing versatility, and in part on who will be most valuable.
Next, you really want to have 5 guys on the roster who can play OF, including 3 who can play CF, and 4 guys who can play middle infield. Less than that, and one injury leaves you with no lineup choices and no ability to pinch-hit or pinch-run.
The Sox have 5 OFers already in the three starters, Kiké, and Refsnyder (the latter two being the backup and emergency CF). And they can have 4 middle infielders: the new SS, Kiké, and Arroyo, and Conner Wong who should see a decent amount of action at 2B in ST. If Wong's not on the MLB roster, they are too thin in the middle infield, so I'm with those who see Alfaro is just insurance for an injury or a total Wong meltdown.
If Wong is the backup catcher, the last man on the bench can be whoever is most helpful.
Covering for injuries.
Next, you want to be able to cover any short-term IL stint with a guy who has options left, i.e., an up-and-down guy. And rather unusually, almost all the optioned position players will start the year at least three months from being MLB ready.
Bobby Dalbec is one exception, and he's a high-quality such guy for the infield corners. That's why selling low on him would be doubly damaging. There has always been talk of him learning the OF, where his arm would play up, and this might be a good time to do that, too.
Now, because your starting 2B (or SS) is also your backup CF, you do not need to have an up-and-down guy who's an outfielder. You just need a middle infielder.
Who is that guy? The only infielder in ST with options left is Niko Goodrum, who was decent his first two years with the Tigers but has shown very little since. And he's an NRI. He could end up taking Story's spot on the 40-man ... but he'd have to be the last man on the 26-man as well, unless someone else goes on the 60-day, which you never want to count on. You may well do this at some point, but not out of ST. He's be of no special use as the last man on the bench.
But if they were reconverting Duran to 2B, he would be that guy. And I already think that's a good idea, and it really solves the up-and-down problem, quite beautifully.
Any time a starting OF goes on the IL, Kiké goes to CF and Duvall (if he's not the injured guy) goes to a corner, and Duran and Arroyo platoon at 2B. If your SS or Kiké gets hurt, you have the same platoon (with Arroyo maybe playing SS depending on which one is hurt).
So now Duran is either playing everyday in AAA or is the big half of a 2B platoon whenever any one of 5 starers is hurt. Dalbec is playing everyday in AAA and starting in MLB whenever any one of 3 guys (including Turner) is hurt. Duran is also called up when Refsnyder, Arroyo, or the last man on the bench is hurt, and that's the only time he's not seeing regular action.
Oh, did I just say "last man on the bench"? And isn't that the title of this thread?
I argued at length in the mlfa thread that it has to be Greg Allen. Just his career 45 SB and 8 CS would make him an obviously valuable guy, given the new rules. But he's also a better-than-average defender in CF and he's not terrible at the plate vs. RHP.
You can find a post of mine from before he was signed that spells out who the last man ought to be: a LHB, good defender in CF, OK at the plate, and who can really steal bases as a very desirable bonus. A guy like that would actually get some starts vs. RHP when Kluber and Pivetta (fly ball pitchers) were on the mound and left field is big, especially if the opposing starter has a big platoon split. Refsnyfer vs. certain LHP is one lineup tweak that will put a bench guy in the starting lineup as a regular; strengthening the OF defense by moving Yoshida to DH is the only other one I can think of.
A LHB, good defender in CF, OK as a hitter, who can really steal bases. Allen fits that description almost perfectly, the exception being that he's been a better base-stealer than I imagined.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 12:39:25 GMT -5
If that's the case and Andrus is too expensive then I hope Bloom signs Iglesias who I think would come back without breaking the bank. I know Iglesias isn't the SS he once was, but they need somebody other than Kiké capable of playing SS acceptably. Plus Iglesias could be Arroyo injury insurance at 2b. The Red Sox are rumored to be very interested in Josh Harrison. That one I can't figure out. I don't know what he can do better than Arroyo at this point (stay on the field?) and he can't play SS and it's not like he'd be a LH platoon partner for Arroyo, so I guess I don't understand the interest. Agreed. I really hope Harrison isn’t on Bloom’s mind. Everything is pointing in the wrong direction with all aspects of his play. Harrison would be an NRI, essentially going to the bottom of the middle-infield depth chart while everyone moves up 1 spot because of Story.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 4:34:08 GMT -5
What is going on with Wacha? does anybody know why he hasn't signed yet? If I were the Red Sox, I would still be interested in signing him given that 3 of their starting pitchers are coming off injuries and we don't know if they will all be recovered. If everybody is healthy, they can still flip one of them at the trade deadline. Obviously, they should sill sign one of the 2 free agent shortstops that are still out there. Yes. From a late December post in the team projections thread:
Last year there were 159 pitchers who had 200+ PA without the shift. Wacha ranked 159th in xwOBA and 148th in wOBA. .
Kluber ranked 29th (90th percentile) and 48th (81st %) respectively. He ranked 2nd (to Rodon) among FA SP.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 4:08:55 GMT -5
Tapia is the lefty OF bench bat who can go get it in CF I’d imagine Duran is gonna get moved unless they plan on throwing him down in Worcester to see if he has made adjustments A comparison between Tapia and Greg Allen, a similar player who was signed as an NRI. All figures are career per 600 PA (Tapia has 1858 and Allen 800). sWAR is situation-adjusted.
Name WAR sWAR SB CS Tapia 0.5 0.7 17 5 Allen 1.4 1.0 34 6 Tapia is coming off a typical season for him (.4 / .8).
Now, do you think Tapia was signed to an MLB contract or as MRI? And don't we already have a roster crunch where we're likely trading Brasier and Ort, or doing something more dramatic?
(Take home lesson: just because you've heard of a guy doesn't mean he's any good.)
This changes nothing. However, that they have added three NRI OFers (Narcisco Crook being the 3rd) and just one 2B or SS (Niko Goodrum) is a strong suggestion that they'll be trying Duran at 2B. He's been -12 per 150 G in CF.
Speaking of which, Duran is a guy with awesome physical tools who has 335 career PA and a -1.4 WAR per 600, although situationally it's "only" -0.8. And his job is going to be, sit and watch other guys play?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 0:16:39 GMT -5
I love the Laureano idea. MLBTR just reported that the Twins inquired and the A's were reluctant, presumably because they don't want to sell low and are convinced he'll have a nice rebound season.
There's a non-zero chance that the Sox trade for him at the deadline. It's good to know that he likely wasn't available now, so I feel better about settling for Duvall.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 18, 2023 22:00:56 GMT -5
(Written countless hours ago and and never posted! I do that a lot.)
This is a very interesting gamble. I have more skepticism than usual (the topic of a later post), but I did state within the last week that the M.O. should be upside guys. I strongly suspect that a lot of outs translate to hits in Fenway.
They can afford Joey Wendle to play SS or 2B, platooning with Arroyo. That's a big upgrade relative to cost.
Last man on the bench is a major mystery. That's another post, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 18, 2023 13:55:12 GMT -5
This interest in trading for Kim is beyond baffling to me, and I'm not going to get into one of the two reasons why the idea is shaky, since I've already made that complaint. I do think the guy will become a good player, perhaps a very good one.
Your number 4 prospect is a SS with an ETA of late this year.
A year behind him is a SS who is one of the best prospects in all of baseball.
So all you need at SS is a one-year stopgap (which may turn out to be 4 or 5 months). Elvis Andrus is a free agent and Joey Wendle is in his walk year for a lousy team, so there's no shortage of candidates for that.*
A very large part of Kim's trade value is his four years of team control -- of which we'd expect to use only two. Meanwhile, teams with a genuine need will be motivated to outbid you, wouldn't they?
So, why? How does this make sense?
* I promised not to point out that both guys were better than Kim last year, on a rate basis, all things considered.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2023 20:08:22 GMT -5
They have known interest in Joey Wendle, and he'd be a great choice if he didn't hit lefty. If he's the stater, you'd probably ultimately do this vs. RHP: Yoshida Casas * probably swapped with Verdugo to start the season Turner Devers Verdugo * Duvall (or a trade for Ramon Laureano) Wendle McGuire Kiké (2nd leadoff) It's not bad on the surface; you can hit Arroyo for Wendle, and Wong or Alfaro for McGuire, late in the game. But every team is going to use their best LHR to face the 1 through 5 hitters at some point, and you can't hit Refsnyder for Verdugo because they'll just change pitchers. You're just handing the opposition a "make things easier" card to get 4 of the 9 outs they need to get in relief. Teams avoid starting 6 LHB for this reason and it's an even worse choice when your three best hitters are all lefties. There is a lineup that works great.
Yoshida Turner Devrers Kiké 2021 (we hope) Casas Duvall or (please?) Laureano Verdugo Wendle McGuire
That's right, put all the LHB you can pinch-hit for in a row, at the end. It pretty much negates using a LHR against them. You'd likely let Verdugo hit against the LHR often, upgrading the hitter for Wendle from Arroyo to Refsnyder, and saving the former for possible other use. But how often would teams bother to do this? Maybe if Wendle is leading off, you bring in a LHR to remove Refsnyder and Wong from the bench and then go after Yoshida? That doesn't make much sense, and it's the best I can come up with.
So there are just two spots in the lineup where a LHR can face 2 of 3 LHB: Yoshida and Devers.
Verdugo and Wendle (who might play SS) would be way above average for 7 and 8 hitters.
I admit to having no idea (yet) who the last player on the bench is in this scenario.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2023 10:46:08 GMT -5
So, why is SS still vacant when Andrus is a perfectly viable solution? (There's maybe a 5% chance that they think Iglesias is better for reasons invisible to us.)
The only thing that makes sense to me is that they are considering Kiké at SS rather than at 2B.
So who would the new 2B be?
They have known interest in Joey Wendle, and he'ÂÂd be a great choice if he didn't hit lefty. If he's the stater, you'd probably ultimately do this vs. RHP:
Yoshida Casas * probably swapped with Verdugo to start the season Turner Devers Verdugo * Duvall (or a trade for Ramon Laureano) Wendle McGuire Kiké (2nd leadoff)
It's not bad on the surface; you can hit Arroyo for Wendle, and Wong or Alfaro for McGuire, late in the game. But every team is going to use their best LHR to face the 1 through 5 hitters at some point, and you can'ÂÂt hit Refsnyder for Verdugo because they'ÂÂll just change pitchers. You'Âre just handing the opposition a "ÂÂmake things easier"ÂÂ card to get 4 of the 9 outs they need to get in relief. Teams avoid starting 6 LHB for this reason and it's an even worse choice when your three best hitters are all lefties.
However, you really want 4 guys on the roster who can play SS or 2B. If you have just 3, and one of them is out of action or needs a day off, you have no flexibility for your starting lineup and no possibility of pinch-hitting or pinch-running. And who'ÂÂs the fourth such guy in this scenario? Conner Wong, maybe, as an adequate 2B, but he might not be on the 26-man all of the time.
So I think that the interest in Wendle has to be as the 4th middle infielder, the 10th man, the last man on the bench. You'd have a Wendle / Arroyo non-strict platoon for backup infielder, and at any time you can start Wendle at SS, put Kiké in the OF, and have all sorts of other options (sit Verdugo, have Yoshida DH, etc.). It's a lot of flexibility.
So who in this scenario would be the new starting 2B?
I think it has to be the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers, who I believe I'ÂÂve talked about already. He'ÂÂs the only alternative to Andrus that I can come up with for the delay in acquiring middle-infielder to replace Xander. Other names have been suggested, but it can't be another FA SS (Igledsias, Simmons) or 2B (Josh Harrison), and Cardinals' SS Paul DeJong and Cubs' 2B Nick Madrigal just aren't good enough.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2023 9:27:58 GMT -5
Needs revision! But good stuff, maybe.
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2023 1:25:05 GMT -5
Alfaro career. Top line is expected and next line is actual. After the = is wOBA.
Bases Empty, 915 PA .243 / .280 / .405 = .296 .257 / .294 / .378 = .291
Runner just on first, 333 PA
.209 / .259 / .367 = .273 .228 / .276 / .375 = .282
RISP, 401 PA (excluding 9 IBB) .263 / .325 / .477 = .345 .278 / .337 / .458 = .339
(I hope everyone notices that the expected /actual splits for the the first and third entries are more or less the same, which suggests the actual splits are for real.)
That RISP success, plus his weak numbers in blowouts (see below) adds 1.7 WAR to his official 5.5.
Whenever I see a catcher with a split like that I figure he's guessing correctly more often than the average player. After all, figuring out what pitch to throw is his job. The runner just on first split suggests someone who is trying to move the runner over, which as a primary goal is a terrible idea.
The extra 1.7 situational WAR is despite subpar performance late and close, an 82 OPS+ relative to his own overall numbers, where the league last year was 93. Definitely a guy you pinch-hit for in that situation, and in most of the of games against LHP they'll have Casas or Verdugo available because they put Refsnyder in the OF (and maybe moved Yoshida to DH). In blowouts he was 89 relative to self, versus 103 for the league.
This is actually the second mlfa in a row they signed that has a real good shot at the MLB roster, the other being Greg Allen in place of Duran (which I think is a clearer upgrade and a better player-development move than this one, which is already solid.) See my post if you haven't already.
The Sox will be factoring in the $3.4M they get if both make the team out of ST, when they do the internal tax audit. The resulting 40-man crunch does make it less likely that Brasier survives, but it's unclear whether you can count on that right now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2023 4:22:53 GMT -5
Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Rafaela is definitely a good defensive outfielder, but I’d have him at least a half tick behind JBJ. JBJ had the best routes/instincts of any outfielder in recent memory, and “perennial gold glove contender” is a high bar. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts. Seems like Bradley was moving before the ball left the bat sometimes. His instincts were off the charts. The best I have ever seen and I've seen a lot of Kiermaier. My guess is Bradley was so incredibly good at routes and reads that he ended up not having as many highlight reels as Kiermaier simply because he was not having to lay out so often. Not taking a thing away from Kiermaier who was also amazing. Statcast data actually has JBJ's routes as average in efficiency, and of course he had only average speed for a CF. But larrycook nails it. He would beat the cameraman and/or director in reaction time, and the first you ever saw of him, he was already in motion.
I wouldn't call it "instincts"; I think he had a hard-wired ability to tell roughly where a ball was going to land essentially as soon as it came off the bat. And he figured out that you should take off in that general direction immediately, even if you had slightly misread the ball because you used so little data in your estimate. Then you a take a second look, nail down exactly where it's going, and go there. Hence the whole route is average technically in efficiency. But he's gone multiple steps in roughly the right direction, and gotten up to speed, at the point where even good fielders are just getting started.
If you include in the route the time spent standing still and eyeing the ball as it heads into the outfield, yeah, his were great. Because his time spent waiting to create a route was as littlle as possible.
Edit: just saw that Stacast had him as just a bit above average for distance traveled in the first 3 seconds, but that's a much longer time frame than I'm talking about; that factors in a lot of foot speed. The bottom line is that a guy with well-below average initial direction (which I have as part of his methodology) and only a bit above average distance traveled in the first 3 seconds, who gets to Gold Glove territory (top few guys in the league) with his results, has to be doing something Statcast isn't measuring.
He was also really sure-handed, really good at getting the right part of the glove to the ball.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2023 3:34:44 GMT -5
Arroyo makes no sense to me. If he's your starter, you then have to obtain a new backup SS (in addition to a new starting SS) ... why not just obtain a guy's who's a better hitter than Arroyo and who plays 2B (and not necessarily SS), and have him start? Or, put Kiké at 2B, and then you have chance of getting a RH hitter who can play CF and hit 6th.
Arroyo had 181 PA in 2021 and had a 3.3 WAR per 600 PA. He was also crazy good when it mattered, adding 1.4 full runs for a raw total of 2.4 wins and a just plain stupid 8.0 per 600. No wonder why we all loved him.
Last year he had 300 PA and his WAR / 600 dropped to 0.3. His clutch magic disappeared to the tune of -.02 Sit-Wins, for an overall WAR of 0.0.
I think two things are going on here. First, as a bench player they almost certainly got him into the lineup against pitchers he was projected to hit well against. (I did that for the Sox in '05 with some real success using nothing but standard batting and pitching lines plus pitcher's GB%; imagine what they can do now.) And second, there's much higher expectations when you're a starers and hence more pressure.
Brendan Rodgers is a really interesting idea. His 2021 and 2022 were insanely different, to the point where he seems very likely to have changed something in a major way.
In 2021 he had a 66 wRC+ at Coors and a 131 on the road. So maybe he made a change to hit better at home?
In fact he had a 117 wRC+ at home last year ... and a 65 on the road. Oops ... that's a net downgrade.
(We now turn to bRef and OPS+, and they had a much milder Coors factor. So just look at the relative splits.)
In 2021 his Score Splits (Late and Close / Ordinary / Blowout) were 101, 124, 105. These are relative to MLB as a whole, so these are fairly ordinary.
Last year he was 65 / 103 / 178. As a result is Situational Hitting went from .9 wins / 600 PA to -1.4.
So two questions I won't address: what's the true Coors park factor, and what the hell happened last year / can we get the 2021 version?
He could play 2B for a year, SS for a year, and then be traded with a year of control left. If he blossoms with us you might get him for essentially nothing in the long run. It sure seems that he needs to escape Coors, as so far he's hasn't been able to develop a swing and/or approach that works both there and on the road. That limits his value to the Rockies.
I'd like to think that either Laureano ($3.55M arb agreement) or Rodgers ($2.7M) projects to be a decent 6 hitter. Even if they both do, I'd still grab just one and sign Andrus to play SS for a year, because they have money to spend and I'd rather they didn't make two trades that thinned the farm system. All things being equal, I'd go with Rogers, because that evades a lot of roster problems ... you can then have Greg Allen as the 26th guy and watch him steal bases at will and fill in in CF when we need defense there, while retaining Kiké as extra infield depth.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 22:53:00 GMT -5
Now that all the arb agreements are in, we have a budget: Sox are $28M under the cap. They could commit as much as $20M of that this winter, saving space for bonuses amd a deadline deal or two..
The MLBTR prediction for total arb was $38.2M; they actually spent $35.6M.
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 22:37:53 GMT -5
Yes indeed.
We don't know just how good Casas will be, but the similarity in approach to Thomas is exciting. It's pretty much the apotheosis of the Ted Williams approach to hitting, where getting a good pitch to hit is everything.
I thin the following is very telling. Throughout his ml career there were some people who were concerned that he wasn't hitting as many homers as expected, given the kind of hitter he was. Those who knew him better said not to worry. My take now is that he concluded that learning to hit a baseball as best as possible was not entirely compatible with hitting a lot of homers, and not to worry about it.
What happened? In that ice-cold start he would have ranked in the 91st percentile for home runs per contact. The rest of the way, his HR/C would have ranked 6th in MLB (out of 277 hitters with 300+ PA), behind Judge, Trout, Buxton, Schwarber, and Stanton. Overall he would have ranked in the 97th percentile for HR/C.
The Steamer projection essentially regresses his 5 actual HR to 3.
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 19:53:02 GMT -5
I was kind of flabbergasted by Steamers projection of 1.9 WAR and a .451 SLG. So I thought I would try to find the best comp possible. So I went back to 1920 and got a list of: 1B Rookie (too much trouble to limit it to debut seasons!)
Age 22
Minimum 80 PA (Casas had 95). My original intent was to look at guys with about a 120 wRC+, but I was immediately seized by how few guys had Casas's combo of K and BB rate, let alone in combo with his Iso. And that's why I didn't notice until now the list of guys with a wRC+ of 116 to 124: Kent Hrbek Lou Gehrig
Jack Hiatt (80 PA on the nose) Rafael Palmeiro
Casas Mike Marshall Hank Greenberg Will Clark Anthony Rizzo There was in fact one guy who matched Casas really closely in those three attributes. I was curious -- did they also have a slow start, which is not at all uncommon for even the best prospects ? They did.
I ended up with this comp: --- Debut Season --- Slow Start Nxt 46 PA ROS Height Weight K rate W Rate Iso PA wRC+ wRC+ wRC+ Dude X 6'5" 240 .183 .183 .199 32 90 223 182 Casas 6'4" 252 .242 .200 .208 44 24 203 n/a
Note that the UBB (excluding pitchers) rate in X's debut season was identical to that of 2022 (.080 and .079 respectively). The K rate was much lower, but it's clear that the continual rise in K rate until the end of the steroid era was driven by the steady increase in the number of hitters who were willing to trade less contact for more power a la Ruth. That trend reached its max in this century, and the continued rise in K rate since is completely explained by better pitching.
Given that 97% of the rise in K rate from 2008 to 2022 can be explained by a) rising 4-seamer velocity and b) declining FB% (5-seam and sinker), I think it's completely legit to adjust Casas's K rate back to 2008. When you do -- and I crap you not -- it's .185. So the overall numbers show a similarity of style that's kind of eerie. And yes, some of the really close correspondences may have drifted apart some had Casas played longer, but ...
There are 77 guys that fit these criteria and Casas and X were 1-2 in BB rate, and the only guy who remotely resembles either is Casey Kotchman, who had a rough debut at age 21 (falling 7 PA short of losing rookie status), and then had a 125 wRC+ and .206 Iso. But his K and BB rates were .126 and .105; he fanned less than any of the guys on the wRC+ close comp list above except Gehrig and Palmeiro. There was always skepticism about Kotchman for the very reason that he did not go deep in counts like most guys with his Iso, and it proved to be warranted.
Casas is clearly not as good as Dude X. He struggled much worse, and 47% longer. As a result, at the point in the season where Casas had gotten his wRC+ up to 120 and gone home, Dude X was at 163.
But once Casas got it going, I think his next 46 PA were even better than Dude X's. Every PA of that great end stretch was against the AL East, and the median starting pitcher he faced, by ERA, was Gerrit Cole (3.50; MLB average was 4.05). And that 3.62 average starer's ERA (it was 3.39 before game 162) was put up against AL East hitters nearly half the time. Hitters whose numbers underrate them because they faced the AL East pitchers .... When you adjust for this correctly, it's a much bigger factor than you'd think.
And of course the the gap in final numbers would have closed considerably had Casas gotten a chance to keep playing.
So who is Dude X? I'm omitting another thing in common that might make it too obvious, if it isn't already.
Meanwhile, a reminder of the way Casas's season broke down (the good stuff starting on September 22, an auspicious date for fans of a certain popular book).
PA K rate W rate BABIP ISO xwOBA wOBA wRC+ 49 .273 .136 .042 .158 .255 .208 24 46 .216 .255 .375 .263 .386 .461 203
What would his Steamer projection be if the season had gone on for another week? Or of they had bothered to adjust for quality of pitching faced?
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2023 5:10:33 GMT -5
Good lord, do you think that's what I'm doing? I'm just making off-the-cuff gut predictions, and in the comment that started this conversation, shading toward the conservative side. I'm not asking for a thesis here. Really it's just a way asking people who think the Red Sox will stink why they think that.
1. Do you remember the Celtics in the few years before they added KG and Ray Allen? Raffy Devers is your Paul Pierce. A lineup that depends on Alex Verdugo in the middle of the order and then tapers down to the catchers, the (likely) light-hitting SS, and a 2B who was supposed to be a bench guy is a creampuff lineup. I'd list KKH as a bottom-third guy, too, except that he may be hitting second with his lifetime .314 OBP and 97 OPS-plus. 2. I expect massive decline in SS production (not a rocket science observation, I'll grant you) and moderate decline at DH. J DM put up a 117 OPS-plus last year in his age 34-35 season. Justin Turner was at 116 last year and will be playing his age 38 season in '23.Yoshida is an intriguing offensive piece but it sounds like his defense could very well cannibalize whatever offensive WAR he produces, especially if he's in Fenway's RF. He's the 180 from JBJ in RF. 3. I'll say it again: It's silly to count on anything from Sale, who hasn't had a year of durability and good performance in six years. You comfortable counting on Paxton? Kluber is a decent bet for the money. But they lost 3 SPs - Eo, Hill and Wacha, each of whom was some degree of useful last year. 4. It's hard to rate the BP without knowing where Houck and Whitlock will be. If they're both in the rotation, we have three guys we can reasonably depend on: Jansen, Martin and Schreiber. That would have been a lot just a few years ago. It's not great depth in today's game. 2. Yes, but JDM grounded into 20 DP, which is not counted by OPS+, and (adjusted for his GDP opportunities), it knocked off .6 wins of value.
He also had a 158 OPS+ with the bases empty, a 100 with just a runner in first, and a 79 with RISP, in 183 PA, including a 51 in 72 PA with 2 outs and RISP.
He also had a 92 Late and Close, a 125 otherwise with teams within 4 runs of each other, and a 148 in blowouts (5+ run margin).
The last two splits combined to knock off another 1.1 wins off his value. He actually was worth 0.1 WAR. Yes, you can say that was a fluke and non-predictive, but IT HAPPENED. And that is what you compare Turner's projected production to ... WHAT. ACTUALLY. HAPPENED. LAST. YEAR.
(And it wasn't a fluke ... JDM's career WAR, starting after he was let go by the Astros, is 26.5, after losing about 3.0 WAR from GDP's and baserunning. What WAR does not include is another -7.4 wins of situational hitting.
Meanwhile, Turner's Late and Close OPS+ the last 5 years is 148, 147, 179, 132, 182. Last year he had a 101 with the bases empty, a 112 with a man on first, and a 171 with RISP.
That may not be predictive; his last 3 years with the Dodgers he's 1.1, 0.9, 1.1 wins from situational hitting, but he was -1.5 in his first 7 years with the team. Both he and JDM blossomed from obscurity in the same year; Turner has 35.7 situation-adjusted WAR in 4220 PA, and JDM has 19.1 in 4916. Some of that is defensive value of course, but most of it is hitting.
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 12, 2023 14:36:30 GMT -5
For the purposes of this comparison, I'm swapping last year's SS and non-Verdugo corner outfielder. Which is to say, those two slots are more by batting order than by position.
Who Crowd 2022 Who Yoshida 2.3 4.8 Bogaerts Story 3.9 1.9 Story, Arroyo Devers 5.6 5.3 Turner 2.7 -0.7 Martinez Casas 2.9 0.4 Dalbec, Cordero, Casas, Hosmer Hernan. 2.1 1.1 Hernandez, Duran Verdugo 3.1 3.5 SS 1.3 -1.6 Bradley, Pham, Cordero McGuire 1.8 2.3 Vazquez, McGuire Wong 0.8 -1.1 Plawecki, Wong Bench 1.0 0.7 Refsnyder 0.0 Cordero, Arroyo -1.2 Sanchez, Downs, Almonte, Davis, Chang, Shaw, Arauz 27.6 15.4
I fixed the double-counting error and that adds 1.3 wins to last year's total. I'll edit the by-position numbers when I get a chance.
So now you get 9.9 extra wins, which puts you at 90 (including the +2 for new schedule).
Story's injury (using the same 1.3 guess as for SS) drops that down to 87-88. But the pitching should be better.
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 12, 2023 14:13:30 GMT -5
Not that I think Seabold is some amazing prospect, but he's useful rotation depth with an option left. Not sure why you'd DFA him over Kaleb Ort (or Kelly or Mills or Brasier). I suppose the logic is they have other, better rotation depth on the 40-man (Wink, Mata, etc.), but that's true of bullpen arms as well. I dunno, I'm pretty down on the 40-man management this offseason. I had them shedding Downd, Darwinzon, and Seabold (or Winck, but if Seabold is not going to return to his pre-injury form, that's who you choose), so the only surprise for me is that they didn't get anything back for anybody. I would have expected at least a couple of low-minors lottery tickets.
Full list of got-nothings (in some cases the contract was a factor):
JBJ, Sawamura, Plawecki, Bazardo, Danish, Cordero, Downs, Hosmer, Darwinzon ... Seabold?
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 12, 2023 13:32:33 GMT -5
Ordinarily you'd bury this in some other thread, but he has a real shot at making the roster. I think they'd be much better off giving him a shot at Duran's projected role and letting Duran play every day in AAA.
He's 40 for 47 stealing 2B in his career and 4 for 4 stealing 3B (1 for 2 in double steals of home). If we knew how many SB opportunities he's had I think those figures would be even more impressive. I don't think you could do much better finding a guy to exploit the new SB rules.
He's a career +3 per 150 G defender in CF, excellent in RF and off the scale good in LF, all with small sample sizes, of course.
The Indians called him up in 2017 in September and he struggled, mostly off the bench, but from 2018 to 2021 he had 478 PA vs. RHP with an 89 wRC+ (.306 wOBA, .303 expected). He's a switch-hitter but has mostly struggled from the right side. Given the defense and the base stealing, this is a very adequate platoon starting CF.
He was with the Yankees org in 2021, missing some AAA time early, then hitting .272 / .409 / .369 in 128 PA when he was called in mid-July when Judge went on the IL. He hit .270 / .417 / .432 (with a strange reverse platoon split) in 48 PA and got sent down only after Stanton came off the IL as well ... and then hit .373 / .473 / .555 in 133 PA the rest of the way in AAA.
The Pirates claimed him on waivers, apparently with the intention of giving him a shot at starting, but he was out until July 5, had 7 rehab starts, then never hit at all (.186 / .260 / .271 in 134 PA).
The catch here is that if they move Kiké to 2B and trade for a CF who projects better than a 7-9 hitter (like Laureano), which is the plan I think is better, then either you need to fill the last roster spot with a LH-hitting infielder, or you need to use Conner Wong at 2B as the second reserve infielder. (Turner has 1 inning at 2B since 2015.) Does anyone have a sense as to whether Wong could handle a traditional (no shifts) 2B adequately?
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2023 22:57:23 GMT -5
Sign Andrus and trade for Ramon Laureano, moving Kiké to 2B.
a/k/a "Almost everyone on the roster already has a huge variance in their projected worth, so why stop now?"
If they let Turner walk at the end of the year, they can move Toshida to DH and Kiké back to the OF. Adding a CF is the only way to acquire a replacement for 2B that wouldn't end up as a one-year stopgap.
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