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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 15, 2022 23:02:04 GMT -5
David Hamilton stealing 70 bags doesn't mean a whole lot to me. He can't hit above a .740 OPS in AA. The Ward thing is even weirder when you think about how Bloom loves value. Just to leave a arm hanging out like low bearing fruit, is a mystery. Not sure what's going on. The rest were obvious moves. Are some folks here living in an alternate reality where pinch-running is illegal?
With the new rules, any leadoff walk or single late in a close game very likely become a double, if you have a guy like Hamilton on your bench.
Now a single means a run. The infield gets drawn in, and that boosts BABIP on grounders and low liners significantly.
Stealing second and then third? In a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, that improves your Win Probability from 72% to 93%. Down 1 in the top of the 8th? 35% to 54%.
If you have three bench guys who have sufficient versatility to cover all needs, and no obvious guy in the org for the 4th bench spot, grabbing a guy like Hamilton to fill that spot is a no-brainer. What are the odds that that one of the other 29 teams fits that description?
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 15, 2022 20:19:18 GMT -5
Time to do the math again ...
Let's put both Xander and Rodon at $27M and Wacha at $10M.
That still leaves $18M. They can sign Conforto for $12M, trade for Laureano and give him his first-arb-year bucks, and then trade for a LHR.
If they get X or Rodon for a little less, the might be able to sign a reliever.
Basically, just a back-of-envelope assessment that Rodon is still in play.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 15, 2022 19:29:48 GMT -5
Hamilton also finished the year red hot, there may have been an adjustment he made that made them think there’s more where that came from. It’s certainly not indefensible Abreu was always likely to be added. Law says he may be a starting OF (for whatever that’s worth). He also shows some good tools. Hamilton might be the best base stealer in the minors.
Next year it will be much, much easier to steal a base.
Throwing over once during a PA remains as is. But if you throw over a second time, and fail, then the runner can take a substantially bigger lead because a 3rd failed attempt gets you the base gratis. And because there is thus a reason to avoid a second throw over, runners will take a somewhat bigger lead after the first throw over, in order to bait the pitcher into making a second failed throw.
I love this new rule to death. Baserunners have always studied pickoff moves. But now pitchers will have to study baserunners' ability to get back to 1B from a lead.
No Sox fan needs to have the potential importance of a SB explained to them.
Hamilton was a lock to be on some team's September, and hopefully post-season roster. It's funny that we all missed that when they announced the rule changes.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2022 16:31:09 GMT -5
I have us with a 2-excess roster crunch, one of which is east to solve.
First, I expect 7 MLB additions, not the 6 that is projected here. I've argued for Hosmer as a valuable bench contributor but there's no way that he's good enough to start at DH in the AL East, not when you can sign Conforto or the equivalent. That pushes Dalbec to AAA, but only when all 11 non-catchers are healthy at once.
I agree that we add 3 pitchers, but I have two starters (likely Eovaldi and Wacha) and 1 reliever rather than the other way around. That turns out to help the roster crunch, too.
Let's list the trims first. Remember that everyone else has a crunch as well, so the odds of getting these guys to Worcester are good (for those who can't declare free agency).
Brasier Taylor D. Hernandez R. Hernandez Chang C. Hamilton Reed
That's 7, so we're still at 37, which means we can add three guys without clearing space.
Let's check the math by identifying the first 11 guys who will be on option:
Dalbec Mata Wong Seabold Duran Downs Winckowski Cordero Ort German Valdez
The consensus has 5 certain additions:
Rafaela Walter Murhy Ward Abreu
If you've added two more starters, meaning that Crawford is now eighth on your depth chart, do you really need 5 more guys at Worcester that project to be useful? So trading Seabold or Winckowski to a team that is thin at AAA starting depth is an easy trim.
Of the other optioned players, there are obvious reasons for wanting to keep almost all of them. Dalbec, Cordero, and Duran are all MLB depth and would be sold low if moved. Mata has too much upside, and you don't wany to deal both Wincl and Seabold. Wong is probably your backup C next year (or by July). Ort and German are the sort of relievers you want to collect, not get rid of. That leaves Valdez, who they are apparently high on, and poor Jeter Downs.
So the choice may be trading Downs for whatever he's still worth or leaving Abreu unprotected.
In the long run, of course, trades may make a shamble of this, and ultimately, you don't need to make the last trim until you make the last of your 7 additions. But you certainly cannot add someone now and trim them later, so they have to have some kind of plan in place if they do protect Abreu or a longshot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2022 14:29:02 GMT -5
Two players.
A) Career 2914 PA, 3.7 fWAR / 600 PA. An extra actual 0.3 WAR from "clutch" hitting.
Per 150 G in CF, has had +2 runs range and -1.5 Arm. BIS has him at 0 "Good Plays Made."
Will turn 28 in late January. Three years of control left. Signed for 6.8M this year.
Some fair costs in trade according to Baseball Trade Value (matching their prospect value rankings to SP's):
Marcelo Meyer and Chris Murphy
Miguel Bleis, Cedanne Rafaela, Nick Yorke, Mikey Romero, and Juan Encarnacion
B) Career 1640 PA, 3.7 fWAR / 600 PA. An extra 0.9 WAR from "clutch" hitting.
Per 150 G in CF, has been -2 range and +7 Arm. BIS credits him with a further +5 runs of "Good Plays Made" (another 0.5 WAR per year not counted by WAR).
Turned 28 last July. Three years of control left, and first-time arb eligible.
Some fair costs in trade according to Baseball Trade Value:
Chris Murphy and Matthew Lugo
Jarren Duran and Luis Ravello
----
Obviously, Player B has a lot of uncertainty.
As you may have guessed, Player A is Brian Reynold and Player B is Ramon Laureano.
Who would you trade for?
And if you trade for Reynold, he's been much better from the left side (130 vs. 116 wRC+) so you really want a RHB for DH for balance ... and there's nobody I can find. In contrast, Conforto lools like an excellent fit to DH and play a decent amount of OF, allowing Kiké to play infield whenever it makes sense.
And Laureano is very well suited for Fenway and is a classic "change of scenery" candidate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2022 13:02:08 GMT -5
I’d rather have Abreu- he showed the lowest K rate of his career, his walk rate has improved since he won MVP to >9%, and he still hits the ball as hard as ever Power tailed off last year- either that’s the anomaly with his last season or he’s trading power for contact. Either way the batted ball profile hasn’t change a whole lot though. Still a great hitter and he would represent an upgrade on JD from last year Since he’s older he’ll definitely be affordable and on a short term A comment I posted at MLBTR:
=== I liked Abeu until I looked at his career splits, where his OPS+ relative to his overall numbers is 75 in the 8th and 85 in the ninth, and 80 Late and Close. Using Win Probability Added vs. the expected figure based on his hitting stats, he’s lost 16% of his total value by his relative struggles to hit good pitching (obviously he feasts on the bad).
You might live with that (if you weren’t paying for the invisible 16%) but when you run that same number for the 2022 Sox, they were a minus 5 wins of clutch hitting (which just puts a number on something everyone noticed). And that was mostly because guys who performed perfectly well in the past struggled in the clutch (Xander, previously average like most hitters, was -1.5 wins, cutting his apparent WAR by 25%.). That’s a team psychology thing: everyone is pressing to do too much.. The last player I want to add to this roster is a guy who is disappointing in the clutch by nature! ===
Some teams will ignore this, which makes it impossible to get your money's worth signing him.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2022 15:08:46 GMT -5
They have to sign one high end starter. There's really only Rodon and deGrom left available -- I don't see Verlander going anywhere -- and if Eovaldi accepts his QO, they can't afford both Xander and one of those guys.
The idea here seems to be that $30M is better spent on Eovaldi and Wacha than on Rodon. That could well be true over the course of the regular season.
For the post-season, it seems that they are hoping or expecting that either Whitlock or Bello will become a game 2 starter stud. That's not unreasonable, but I would have liked to seen a third candidate added in place of Eovaldi. That's why I'm guessing that they gave Nate the QO because they think he has a chance to return to 2021 form. The simplest possible reason is that he'll have an opportunity to do a lot of off-season work (e.g., lower body strength) that he didn't have a chance to do last year.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2022 1:56:38 GMT -5
They've come a long way from when I used to constantly have to remind people here to refer to the original source, but they're just guessing on these and I think that's explicit. Do anyone's free agent projections pan out well? They're fun early offseason content. The four guys making predictions averaged $49M of Sox investment in top 50 FA. It's clear that at least 3 of them were completely clueless about the Sox' financial situations and unaware of all of the stamens made by the team about their willingness to spend.
Just for amusement, here's what each predictor had. They all buy the Story to AA, trade for a 2B thing.
Steve Adams: Eovaldi, Conforto
Tim Dierkes: Senga, Eovaldi, T. Rogers, Conforto
Anthony Franco: Senga, T. Rogers
Darragh McDonald: Benintendi, Heaney, Eovaldi, Chafin, Ottavino, Kluber, Drew Rucinski (KBO returnee, RHSP)
That's right, the one guy has us spending reasonably ($77M) has us adding 5 SP!
These appear to be guesses, al right, but largely off the top of their heads and not subsequently reviewed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2022 13:34:40 GMT -5
I love MLBTR (I'm a supporter) but their FA predictions have been very bad. Hmm, yeah, their commentary on the Red Sox in this chat seems pretty vapid:
To Tim's point: the signing-a-QO'd-guy thing actually seems like a very good incentive for them to sign either Bogaerts or Correa? Also, I am not seeing Contreras for them at all...
To Tim's point: the way they built their rotation last year was adding Wacha and Hill; how is the equivalent of that this year an acceptable replacement for Bogaerts, given how much money they have to spend.
To Steve's point: this one's the real howler. Bloom has had the financial room to add exactly one major contract in his tenure, and he has... added exactly one major contract, in Story. "The Red Sox are unlikely to spend big on free agents" is not a claim based in either history or a fair read of the state of the organization right now.
Outside their respective divisions (one of the best and worst in MLB history, respectively), Christian Vazquez outhit Willson Contreras.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2022 6:50:00 GMT -5
Well, I guess it just got a little more likely that Eovaldi will be back. If so we're looking at:
Sale Paxton Eovaldi Pivetta
Bello Whitlock Crawford
...with Houck, Winckowski, and Seabold as depth options, and Mata, Murphy, and Walter waiting in the wings. And I still think Hill might be back too. At this point I wonder if they consider trading from some of this depth (even if it's only after waiting to see who's healthy at the end of spring training)?
If they sign Xander for $27M, Conforto for $13M, and trade for Laureano, they've still got $19M to spend. They can absolutely afford Wacha at $10M as well, with room left over for relief upgrades.
The QO for Eovaldi only makes sense if they have reason to believe his 2023 will be closer to 2021 than 2022. If that's the case, it's a good move.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2022 6:31:18 GMT -5
Well, the Giants were so worried that someone like the Sox would steal Pederson from them that they shocked the world ny giving him a QO.
Fortunately, there are still two very good FA candidates for a LH DH, both, however, quite risky -- Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto.
And I just ran their numbers, and Conforto, who is projected for $12M (to $15M), seems at least as good a choice as Pederson, in part because he could play a dent RF on the road. I haven't looked at his fit for Fenway yet ... that's for tomorrow.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2022 4:58:57 GMT -5
I love MLBTR (I'm a supporter) but their FA predictions have been very bad.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 10, 2022 3:39:49 GMT -5
Sportrac says we have $82M to spend.
Everyone has Wacha at $10M AAV and at that price, he's a steal. Joc Perderson in platoon with Refsnyder, Arroyo, and Dalbec will give you more offense than JDM at half the price, as that looks like a $10M deal, too. I've seldom been higher on a buy-low guy than I am on Ramon Laureano, and Baseball Trade Values' Simulator says that Lugo and Drohan is a slight overpay. That's maybe $3M more in arbitration.
I assume that they settle an arb amount with Devers and announce an extension early in the season. That arb money's already counted.
So that leaves $59M for Xander and more pitching.
More pitching, even though we have replaced Eovaldi and Hill with Sale, Bello and Paxton.
If you take Tim Britton's projected AAV for Xander, and Ben Clemens's for Rodon, that's $25M and $24M and you have $10M for relievers and a margin of error. (With all the depth in AAA, I have a hard time seeing them making substantial deadline trades.)
However, if you swap the authorities, you get $31M for Xander and $32M for Rodon, and you're kind of screwed. Once you sign Xander at that price, that leaves $28M, and there really doesn't seem to be a $25m sort of starting pitcher if it's not Rodon.
I think Clemens makes a good point on Rodon, that risk-aversive GM's will knock his price down because of his injury history. And the crowdsource for Xander is $28M, and that's not including a home-town discount, so I think $25 or $26M is very possible.
So I think we can do this:
(* indicates innings will be limited
Rodon (if we want him!) *? might be a good idea
Sale *
Bello *
Paxton *
Pivetta Wacha * in that he's much better on 5 days rest
Whitlock *
[Houck Crawford] Multi-inning relievers.
[4 relievers: $ LH addition, Schreiber, bargain find or rotation of Kelly etc.]
Just how do you use seven starters?
I've already proposed that they start Wacha every 5 games, and 5 guys every 4 games. So each of those 5 guys skips every 5th start, either pitching a couple of innings in relief instead, to stay sharp, or taking a break if they've got a small nagging injury (in which case they can go on the IL if there's an off day within the next 10 days). This cuts 25 - 30 innings off of everyone, but in a way that gives regular opportunities to recuperate.
A seventh starter means you can do this even if one guy is hurt. If it really works, and 2 guys are hurt, you can move Houck or Crawford into the rotation
But how about when they're all healthy? (Yes, that sometimes does happen.)
That's next. There's a clue in all those asterisks and the last two guys named.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 17:26:17 GMT -5
Wowww. I guess the reports of him looking great and throwing 98 or whatever were probably BS. Matt Strahm got $3 million last year based on a good offseason workout. We're going to have no idea where Paxton is on the spectrum between "completely toast" and "Red Sox fistpumping they got him for $4 million and are penciling him in to start the fourth game of the season" for months. Paxton and Boras felt that a 1/$4M deal was the best he could get at this point. No public comments about feeling great, expecting full recovery, yada yada yada............That says all you need to know Here's the explanation that makes the most sense to me.
Does anyone deny that Bloom has been consistently high on Paxton as an addition?
Does anyone deny that there's a history of #2 / 3 starters changing teams and blossoming (Cole, Wheeler, etc.), and that this has often been because his new team has tweaked his pitch use or sequencing?
I think they've been talking about a similar mini-reinvention / great leap forward since they signed him. Paxton takes the option because he's convinced this is the team that can make him that much better (q.v. Wacha). And if that's a success, Paxton comes out ahead as soon as a year from now.
He is also another guy who will need to have his innings limited. More on all that in my next post, in which I entirely re-invent pitching use as we know it.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 16:14:44 GMT -5
And why sell low on him?
I have Dalbec as the starting 3B in Worcester, playing some 1B, LF, and DH. First callup whenever a RH bat is on the IL.
I''m not selling low on Franchy either, given that he's likely to end up as one of the leaders in most-helped-by-shift ban in my analysis, and he's also shown up as one of the LHB most suited for Fenway. He's got one more season on option to work on keeping his good mechanics longer and getting out of his awful slumps sooner.
In the latter, I've always felt that JDM had the right approach: monitor your swing and catch bad mechanics early, before they become a habit that needs to be broken.
I'd also play him full-time in LF (and Duran at 2B).
The only rationale I could see is that he still has some value and they are looking at a 40 man roster crunch. But I think Dalbec's skillset is unique enough that they should hang onto him. His ability to play multiple positions on the diamond plus being a right handed power bat are more valuable to me than what Hosmer brings. A career 128 wRC+ against LHP is going to be real nice to have for a team that might lose X and JDM. False dichotomy here. How often is one of the 11 position players (other than catcher) hurt? And I don't mean just hurt enough to obviously go on the IL; I also mean hurt enough that 10 days on the IL would, in the long run, be a good idea, if you have someone you can call up who's good enough.
The only RHB's of note on the projected WooSox roster are Rafela and Wong. The former you want playing every day for at least the first half of the season, and the latter is barely functional as a bench addition. You really have no RHB to call up at all. Compare the list of LHB: Franchy, Duran, Abreu, E. Valdez, and if there's 40-man room, Fitzgerald.
I agree about Dalbec's worth as a platoon bat on the bench, but until there's an injury, you're likely platooning just at DH, and Refsnyder and Arroyo cover that well enough. Arroyo hits good pitching nearly as well as bad, it seems (he's averaged 0.6 WAR per 600 PA in his career, but 1.3 WAR when you adjust for "clutch", an amazing ratio, granted, in a small sample), while Refsnyder destroys bad LH pitchers but struggles against the good ones. It's a very nice platoon within a platoon, and Kiké's ability to play the infield means you can use anybody who needs a half-day off at DH.
So, how often do you expect one of Story, Kiké, Laureano (or equivalent), and Xander (ditto) to be banged up enough that a trip to the IL would be a good idea ... if and only if you had Dalbec to call up? And of course, if Dalbec is to reach his potential, playing every day for a majority of the season has to help.
Now, Hosmer. He'd be the only LHB on the bench and he's plain and simple Mitch Moreland, except maybe even better (if he returns to his old oppo-power swing).
Moreland in his career averaged just 0.9 WAR per 600 PA, but he hit good pitching so well that when you adjust for the situation he's hitting in, he's 1.6. That's an extra 76% of value, which is a crazy number. And you saw that in action.
Eric Hosmer is also 0.9 raw and 1.6 adjusted, and when you don't round off the numbers he's added 83% of his WAR value. He has a reputation for clutch hitting and this is why.
Would you jettison Mitch Moreland in his Sox prime to make room for Bobby Dalbec on the bench full-time, instead of playing every day in Worcester and available on a moment's notice for MLB action, if needed?
Of course you wouldn't. That's the sort of organizational depth you need to contend.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 5:37:28 GMT -5
One thing that's happened to baseball in the last decade is that there is now a strong correlation between batting in high leverage and facing the best pitchers. Win Probability Added, when compared to straight-up, unadjusted WAR from hitting, is thus largely a measure of how well a hitter hits good pitching. This table lists career WAR per 600 PA, then the same figure ("Adj" for Adjusted) with WPA substituted for Batting Wins Above Average. The final number, HV, is "Hidden Value," expressed as a percentile. An HV of 25% means the true WAR, including situational hitting, is 25% more than what you'll see at FanFraphs. Note that a slightly negative HV is probably the likeliest outcome. That is, the average good hitter hits relatively better against bad pitching than good. Any number here might be subject to interpretation. A LHB who can't hit lefties, like Pederson, is going to get his HV killed if the manager has him doing that, because the good lefty pitchers will own him. And in fact he has a -9% career HV. After typing that I ran his 2022 numbers for the first time: 2.9 WAR / 600, 3.4 adjusted, 18% HV. Which is terrific. Note that the overall WAR, as his writeup in FG's top 50 FA list points out, was dinged by having to play too many innings in the OF. Name PA WAR600 Adj HV Hosmer 6877 0.9 1.6 83% Drury 2276 0.9 1.4 49% Verdugo 1957 2.2 3.0 37% Swanson 3387 2.9 3.9 36% Andrus 8197 2.6 3.4 34% Rizzo 6540 3.2 4.0 26% Laureano 1640 3.7 4.6 26% Frazier, A. 3045 2.3 2.8 23% Peralta, D. 3908 2.5 3.0 20% Hernandez, K. 2995 2.4 2.9 17% Brantley 6092 2.8 3.3 15% Segura 5611 2.7 3.1 14% Wong 4043 2.9 3.3 14% Margot 2512 2.1 2.4 13% Carpenter 5370 3.7 4.1 10% Peterson 2323 1.1 1.2 9% Benintendi 3163 2.5 2.7 8% Profar 3102 1.2 1.2 7% Kiermeir 3351 4.2 4.4 5% Devers 2958 3.7 3.8 3% Turner, Jus 5146 4.0 4.2 3% Turner, Trea 3737 5.1 5.2 2% Haniger 2437 2.9 3.0 2% Conforto 2980 3.9 3.8 -2% Tatis Jr. 1175 6.9 6.8 -3% Longoia 7969 4.1 4.0 -3% Bogaerts 5389 3.8 3.7 -4% Story 3532 4.0 3.8 -5% Kepler 3361 2.9 2.7 -5% Vazquez, C. 2633 2.8 2.6 -6% Yastrzemski 1726 3.2 2.9 -8% Judge 3161 6.9 6.2 -10% Pederson 3431 2.3 2.1 -10% Nimmo 2368 4.5 4.0 -11% Correa 3813 4.9 4.3 -12% Abreu 5506 3.0 2.5 -16% Bell 3406 1.5 1.2 -18% Navarez 2083 2.6 2.1 -20% Sanchez, G. 2665 3.2 2.3 -30% Gallo 2811 3.2 2.1 -33% Happ 2438 2.6 1.7 -35% Contreras, Will 2839 3.3 2.1 -35% Martinez, J 5891 2.7 1.6 -40% Naquin 1811 1.2 0.6 -50% Mancini 3119 1.4 0.4 -68%
I'll take requests.
And this is ridiculous. I'm looking at Hosmer and thinking, this is Mitch Moreland V2.0. So I ran Moreland's numbers. 0.9, 1.6 = 83% Hosmer 0.9, 1.6 = 76% Moreland
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 4:52:36 GMT -5
Joc Pererson is an immensely better option.
JDM was a league-average hitter the last four seasons, when you factor in the situation, as he lost the ability to hit good pitching (and saw an excess of it in the AL East). In the abstract, that was a bad contract. But he was a monster in 2018 and they likely don't win that WS without him. No one has any regrets, I think, nor should they. Hopefully some NL Central club that needs a DH will sign JDM, and that'll be a good fit. Here's a comp: .267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Willson Contreras vs. NL Central .225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise. (CV had better numbers outside the AL east than Contreras had outside the NL Central.)
Maybe he is. Maybe he isn't. Pederson was certainly better last year. No argument there. He wasn't better in 2021 and he wasn't good in 2020, not that JDM was any good in 2020 either. Pederson is a platoon guy while JDM is an every day player so when a lefty start Pederson will be on the bench. If he isnt, his numbers would take a hit. If the Sox signed Pedersom to DH I'd be fine with that although they'll need a RH batter who can DH against lefties...I'm sure you have Dalbec in mind as you have a higher opinion of him than I do. That Madataka Yoshida rumor is interesting although it also seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seiya Suzuki was coming to Boston, too. Yoshida appears to have a really good hit tool. He's got some pop but I'm not sure how much of that transfers to the majors. He's only 5-8, 175 lbs. But perhaps the hit tool does carry over somewhat? Perhaps he is similar to Verdugo offensively? Sounds like he has an excellent BB/K ratio to go along with a good hit tool so perhaps he'd be a viable candidate to lead off. Sox have been facing fewer LHP of late, more like 25% or less versus the usual 33%. You don't need a great platoon bat; Refsyfer and sometimes Arroto will be fine. Laureano (who I'm now as high as possible on and you'll see why in a bit) kills LHP, career 121 wRC+, 139 away from the Coliseum. He takes Pederson's spot in the batting order, more or less, and Refsnyder takes Laureon's spot in the bottom of the order.
Dalbec will get plenty of chances, too, if he's the first guy called up when a RHO is on the IL, which is what I'd do with him.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 23:36:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't be too upset if Bobby D was shipped out, the only thing that concerns me about that is we are already losing both JDM and maybe Xander. I get Dalbec isn't great but right handed power isn't easy to come by and this team is losing its two best already. And why sell low on him?
I have Dalbec as the starting 3B in Worcester, playing some 1B, LF, and DH. First callup whenever a RH bat is on the IL.
I''m not selling low on Franchy either, given that he's likely to end up as one of the leaders in most-helped-by-shift ban in my analysis, and he's also shown up as one of the LHB most suited for Fenway. He's got one more season on option to work on keeping his good mechanics longer and getting out of his awful slumps sooner.
In the latter, I've always felt that JDM had the right approach: monitor your swing and catch bad mechanics early, before they become a habit that needs to be broken.
I'd also play him full-time in LF (and Duran at 2B).
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 23:15:36 GMT -5
It's kind of ironic. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market.ions. Joc Pererson is an immensely better option.
JDM was a league-average hitter the last four seasons, when you factor in the situation, as he lost the ability to hit good pitching (and saw an excess of it in the AL East). In the abstract, that was a bad contract. But he was a monster in 2018 and they likely don't win that WS without him. No one has any regrets, I think, nor should they. Hopefully some NL Central club that needs a DH will sign JDM, and that'll be a good fit. Here's a comp: .267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Willson Contreras vs. NL Central .225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise. (CV had better numbers outside the AL east than Contreras had outside the NL Central.)
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 22:49:24 GMT -5
Eric, What a spectacular analysis. Even if I can’t understand how you did it. Jerryu Turns out this is scratching the surface. It's much more complicated and (thankfully) much more interesting that I thought at first.
Do some hitters change their approach when the other team shifts on them?
I'm guessing that some do and some don't. But I can identify them I think.
I've already got four spreadsheets:
-- Shift is on and ball is hit at shift level (grounder or low liner). -- Shift is on but ball is hit higher, rendering shift moot.
-- Shift is not on but ball is hit at shift level . -- Shift is not on and ball is hit higher.
I want to compare the high liners and fly balls, hit in shift vs. non-shift. A difference indicates change of approach.
Next up is pull / straightaway / oppo breakdowns for shift, and non-shift. Six more spreadsheets!
And then the basic stats for everyone, in shift and non-shift, to see if SO and BB rates change.
Every sheet is two searches on Savant, one each for R and L hitters. That's 24 searches, and spreadsheets have as many as 1177 player entries. I want to include everyone in case there are guys who were shifted on just a few times. Not that you'd use that data, but missing it might cause confusions, and it takes almost no extra effort to grab everyone.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 15:30:56 GMT -5
Top 15 guys hurt by the shift, last 3 years, Raw Numbers, not adjusted for PT. That'll happen after I vote.
(Yes, they're all LHB. Eugenio Suarez leads the RHB and ranks 17th.)
Diff is wOBA -xwOBA. "Hurt" is just that multiplied by PA shifted on. I had to first determine the LA at which the shift stopped being a factor and it turned out to be amazingly distinct. LA of 12 and below, big effect, 12 and above, none. Name PA Diff Hurt Santana, Carlos 292 -.102 -29.8 Bellinger, Cody 269 -.106 -28.5 Muncy, Max 324 -.088 -28.5 Rizzo, Anthony 369 -.077 -28.4 Schwarber, Kyle 295 -.092 -27.1 Seager, Corey 424 -.063 -26.7 Kepler, Max 357 -.069 -24.6 Tellez, Rowdy 301 -.071 -21.4 Yastrzemski, M. 239 -.088 -21.0 Tucker, Kyle 366 -.055 -20.1 Calhoun, Kole 213 -.094 -20.0 Alvarez, Yordan 322 -.061 -19.6 Gallo, Joey 187 -.101 -18.9 Harper, Bryce 284 -.066 -18.7 Olson, Matt 421 -.044 -18.5 Verdugo is 0.0 and Raffy is actually positive.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 14:07:40 GMT -5
One common misapprehension I see in these discussions is the idea that players just sign for the highest bidder. That makes no sense psychology and it's never, ever been true.
How great was Kirby Puckett in a Sox uni after the Sox outbid the Twins? That made the papers only because Puckett came close to signing here before he realized, what was I thinking?
Most often you just never hear about the higher offers that were turned down. The Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent (source: Theo Epstein, sitting to my right), the guess being that Beltre wanted to stay on the West coast. He'd be in the conversation as best 3B of all time if he signed with the Sox.
One of the things I did for the Sox (on my own, like most of what I did) was an analysis of free agent contracts, predicting them from WAR of the last 3 seasons. The "home town discount" was really clear in this study. [1]
Not uprooting your family is worth a lot of money. Staying with coaches and teammates that you have a good relationship with has real value, too.
Players begin by identifying the offers that are reasonable, those that are not disrespectful. If one of them is from the team they really want to play for (for whatever reason), that's who they sign with. If there isn't a team that fits that description, or if there are multiple teams that do, they weigh the offers including pros and cons of the various teams and cities, and in that situation, and only in that situation, they factor in that the Players Association likes it for guys to sign with the highest bidder because in the long run, everyone benefits from rising salaries.
[1] The other thing that stood out: the predictor for pitchers included a fixed constant, which is to say that if you took what everyone had gotten based on how good they were and extrapolated downward, the cost for a replacement-level pitcher would be something like $500K! IIRC, it wasn't present when I re-did the study a couple of years later.
I don't disagree with any of this, but one thing I would add is that agents pretty much are motivated solely by getting the highest dollar amount possible, and they do have some, um, agency is this process as well, if nothing else through their ability to persuade their client (even if the ultimate decision rests with the player). Yes, and this goes hand-in-hand with the player's association POV.
The fact is that a majority of free agents do not have a single preferred destination, so this is very much a factor.
But when a guy knows where he wants to play, the agent knows that their job is to get the most money from that team, assuming they make a reasonable offer, one that reflects a sincere desire. If you screw up and the player ends up elsewhere, you get fired, which was what happened to Freddie Freeman's agent.
(This was an under-reported story. His agent gave the Braves a 24-hour ultimatum with a high, imaginary figure, which the Braves quite reasonably thought was the actual Dodgers' offer. He thought, it seems, that the the Braves would up their current offer in response, and that would be the deal.
The Braves thought, we can't match that, and immediately traded for Olson since they had the inside knowledge that Freeman was about to sign. And he did, but only because the Braves no longer had an opening for him ... and he signed for a price the Braves would have met.
IIRC, Freeman knew nothing about this until the Braves (quite reasonably pissed) tipped him off.)
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 13:44:33 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not buying Story to SS being plan B. Maybe plan F or something and as Eric mentions, it's not like they could even talk to anyone other than Xander yet, so they might as well figure out what's out there if the doomsday scenario happens. Figuring out every possible option feels very Bloom to me. "Free agents are allowed to speak with other clubs between now and Thursday afternoon, though no potential contract terms can be discussed." From the Mark Feinsand article. So multiple teams making multiple calls. Maybe the Sox are making less calls than others and the random source just taking that as not as interested. We'll see where the Sox are at money wise with the top 4 short stop free agents. Hopefully he's wrong. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS AT ALL ABOUT WHO THE SOX ARE TALKING TO ABOUT SS.
The report was that the Sox were asking teams about 2B trades. And then an unnamed source -- I'm guessing Peter Abraham, since he's wrong so often -- took that to mean that Story at SS was Plan B or even Plan A.
And at this point, all you can really do is a) ask the player if he would consider playing for your team, and if so b) confirm your interest. You don't start selling a player on your team and city as a destination before you make an offer; that happens when your offer has been approved as in the ballpark. And even saying something like "we expect to be very competitive bidders" is against the rules.
So, Bloom has to call three agents, and the functional part of each conversation literally lasts less than 10 seconds; the rest would be schmoozing with the agent to establish or continue a rapport. Players presumably have given their agents a list of teams they'd play for, and what gets done in this period is that everyone discovers who their options are, in both directions.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 13:18:44 GMT -5
One common misapprehension I see in these discussions is the idea that players just sign for the highest bidder. That makes no sense psychology and it's never, ever been true.
How great was Kirby Puckett in a Sox uni after the Sox outbid the Twins? That made the papers only because Puckett came close to signing here before he realized, what was I thinking?
Most often you just never hear about the higher offers that were turned down. The Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent (source: Theo Epstein, sitting to my right), the guess being that Beltre wanted to stay on the West coast. He'd be in the conversation as best 3B of all time if he signed with the Sox.
One of the things I did for the Sox (on my own, like most of what I did) was an analysis of free agent contracts, predicting them from WAR of the last 3 seasons. The "home town discount" was really clear in this study. [1]
Not uprooting your family is worth a lot of money. Staying with coaches and teammates that you have a good relationship with has real value, too.
Players begin by identifying the offers that are reasonable, those that are not disrespectful. If one of them is from the team they really want to play for (for whatever reason), that's who they sign with. If there isn't a team that fits that description, or if there are multiple teams that do, they weigh the offers including pros and cons of the various teams and cities, and in that situation, and only in that situation, they factor in that the Players Association likes it for guys to sign with the highest bidder because in the long run, everyone benefits from rising salaries.
[1] The other thing that stood out: the predictor for pitchers included a fixed constant, which is to say that if you took what everyone had gotten based on how good they were and extrapolated downward, the cost for a replacement-level pitcher would be something like $500K! IIRC, it wasn't present when I re-did the study a couple of years later.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 5:18:14 GMT -5
The Red Sox actions of checking in and not following up right now, might be the reason that quotes coming out though. All of the interested teams are probably ready to strike quick on the top of the free agent short stop class. It's a very barren market outside the top 4. If one anonymous agent (I'm assuming) is saying the Sox aren't being aggressive, then that's very striking early out of the gate. The whole "wait for Xander's market to fall apart" could be a problem if they actually want him back. The Sox might have eyes on another prize in free agency. Not sure who that is, but maybe it's not at Short Stop. Maybe it's Kodai Senga. No one is allowed to negotiate with a F.A. yet. The source didn't say the Sox weren't being aggressive; he was guessing that interest in a 2B meant they were uninterested in a SS.
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