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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 4:39:05 GMT -5
I expect D-Dom to be D-Dom and sign one of the big-name SS. But I don't think it will necessarily be X. I'd probably bet on him signing Correa. If the Red Sox sign one, I'd expect it to be Swanson, as he's likely to carry the lowest price tag. I take no encouragement from Bloom saying X is the team's priority. If he's the priority, Chaim, then where ya been the past two years? Why didn't it get done already? It's easier to make these deals before a guy hits FA than it is once other teams start making offers. Because until this year, there was real possibility that Xander Bogaerts would need to move to LF as soon as this coming year.
Same thing with extending Raffy, and note that they made a point of giving him an offer based on his playing 1B.
If a player is a year from free agency, and there's a 1 to 2 WAR uncertainty (each year!) in his value, there is no way to strike a deal. The player realizes that they need to improve on defense and, convinced of their ability to do just that, will want that money now. But the F.O. cannot do that. Sometimes no amount of hard work can bring about a desired outcome. Even if you're 90% sure the players will reach their upside, the downside if you're wrong exceeds the gain you'll get by completing a deal when the upside is still just that, and not reality. It's rare that a 10% chance-we're-screwed gamble is better than waiting a bit and eliminating the uncertainty.
The Raffy offer suggests that the low offers to both players were in part designed to underscore the importance of fulfilling their defensive potential. I think they're both professional enough and proud enough to have lit their own fires underneath themselves, so you can regard the low offers as tossing an extra log or two on them. It makes the consequences of not working hard enough really vivid, by putting a $number on it.
It worked beautifully. And the team will gladly pay the extra money now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 4:09:05 GMT -5
Please stick to a discussion of the actual World Series. Thanks. I was curious as to how the WS actually compared to last year's ALCS.
The Sox had a 9.47 RA on offense through inning 3 of game 3, and 1.69 after -- a decline of 82%.
The Phillies had a 5.625 RA through inning 5 of game 3, and 0.90 after -- a decline of 84%.
This is a little bogus, but cute:
The Sox had outscored the Astros by a ratio if 2.2 to 1, and then got outscored by a ratio of 4.3 to 1.
The Philies had outscored the Astros by a ratio if 1.5 to 1, and then got outscored by a ratio of 4.0 to 1.
The non-Astros pitching was not the same. When the Sox offense collapsed, the pitching also went from a 4.29 RA to 7.31.
In contrast, the Phillies went from 3.91 to 3.60. Given that game 3 was in the bag already, and the next two games were at home, and given the Astros' offense, I think that any Phillies fan would have gladly taken their chances with a 3.60 RA allowed the rest of the way. This reversal of fortune wasn't a general one; it was entirely the Astros' pitching sudden turn to total domination.
Speaking of which, Valdez actually had a higher WPA than Pena, 3.83 to 3.00. But I think the MVP call was right. Playing terrific defense at SS, when you include the positional adjustment, is going to put you in Valdez's neighborhood. And every Astros pitcher was dealing the last three games, which suggests that some of Valdez's success in game 6 was team-driven, specifically, by an updated plan of attack on all the Phillies' hitters.
Which may well have happened last year as well. You pitch guys a certain way, and then you try to guess what the other team will be doing given that, and then you build a plan to counter the expected plan of the opponents.
Either that, or luck.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2022 15:55:02 GMT -5
The psychological dynamic of this game is intense. The pitching matchup for game 7 favors the Phillies, and history shows that the home field advantage disappears if the home team doesn't win in 6. There should be less pressure on the home team, but in a weird way the opposite seems to be true, especially given how much the Astros are favorites.
Three years ago the Astros were in the same position and lost 2 to the Nats. Gurriel, Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Maldonado were all on that team; Maldanado was the backup catcher but caught game 6. Diaz is also a holdover. The only pitching holdovers other than Verlander are Pressly and Urquidy.
Of course, most of the team lost last year, at home in 6 to the Braves. I'd forgotten that Valdez got shelled in games 1 and 5 after shutting us down in the ALCS, so he's hardly a sure thing tonight.
We'll never know why Dusty flip-flopped McCullers and Javier in the WS, making the former the scheduled game 7 pitcher. Javier has never pitched on 3 days rest after starting.
Folks may recall the '99 DS against the Indians, where Mike Hargrove didn't include a long man on the roster and panicked and brought in his game 4 starter Jaret Wright when Dave Burba (who was absolutely dealing) got hurt after 4 innings in game 3 ... Wright was killed, and Bartolo Colon was killed on 3 days rest (and I mean killed: 12 ER in 3 IP between them), setting the table for Pedro's relief legend. Pitching on short rest is a crap shoot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 23:04:14 GMT -5
Keep in mind that the Brewers last year played 76 games in a division that (including themselves and the Cards) played .435 ball outside the division. They played 57 games against teams that played .380 ball outside the division.
The equivalent in the AL East is exact: the Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox went 100-128 within the division ... exactly what the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds did in the NL Central.
Except the three weaker clubs in the AL East played .570 ball outside the division.
NL Central guys weren't anywhere as good as they seem. (Yup, including Renfroe.).
It's really complicated to put a number on this, but it's always bigger than you think. A pitcher in that division got to throw to a lot of guys who were lame and lousy based on their stats. But those hitters were facing the lame and lousy pitchers of that division and still put up their lousy numbers! You have to adjust the hitters for the pitchers and then vice versa, paste the adjusted numbers over the original ones, and run the adjustment again. And again and again ... about 20 times before the numbers stop changing.
I've done this for team W/L records and the end results are about 5 times the first set of adjustments.
Eh, I don't put a ton of stock in stuff like that in this situation. Of course someone will play better against weaker competition, but Burnes and Woodruff are the real deal and everything backs it up – the raw numbers, the advanced metrics, the eye test. If you want to argue that the Yelich rebound I'm hoping for isn't going to happen, I can recognize that possibility – but I see a situation there that the Red Sox are in a position to take advantage of. Obviously a lot of it comes down to exactly how much money the Sox would take on and what prospects would go the other way, but it's rare that there might be a somewhat realistic possibility of: 1. Getting an ace or near-ace quality pitcher with multiple years of control 2. Taking on a bloated contract where the player is still a useful (if heavily overpaid) piece 3. Not paying an exorbitant prospect cost That to me is the perfect utilization of the newly cultivated prospect depth and financial flexibility. Of course it might all be moot if the Brewers can't stomach a salary dump (of sorts) of the guy who was supposed to be the face of the franchise, but you never know with cost-conscious teams. It's true that a lot of elite pitchers "flatten the curve" (my label) by being nearly as tough on good hitters as bad ones. Woodruff fits that description really well. He hasn't feasted on 7-9 hitters in his career, and last year his splits vs. good / average / bad offenses were actually backwards. If anything, the dude needs to bear down more when he knows the opponents can't touch him.
Burnes has feasted on 7-9. I didn't bother running the numbers by opponent for last year, because you'd never ask for him when they both have 2 years of control left and Burnes is regarded as the better guy -- very likely because he did dominate the weak lineups.
The question remains though, given that the Brewers missed the playoffs by a win or two, why would they move any talent? They're going to keep their best pitchers and hope for a Yelich bounce-back.
Now, if they crater this year, you might look at Woodruff at the trade deadline ... but so would every other club.
My highly complex idea: wait two years and sign him as a FA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 16:16:25 GMT -5
No, I like to see the Astros competitive because its a good firewall keeping the Yankees from winning the World Series. This Red Sox team is not a World Series contender. You know that Eric. What did people predict for the 2021 Sox after the abysmal 2020 season?
I predicted 92 wins and the first wild card. Right here. You can look it up.
(I chose not to to make a prediction for this year as I just saw too much uncertainty.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 15:07:33 GMT -5
I've been banging the drum for the Brewers as a trade partner, but I agree with freddy that the Red Sox are giving up too much in that swap when you could just go spend money that they have available. I'm not as resistant to trading high-ranked prospects as some, but I want the Sox to do it when it pushes them over the top – and they're currently pretty far from that point. I still like the idea of packaging one of their starting-to-get-expensive aces (Woodruff, Burnes) with Yelich if you believe he has a little more left in the tank. Have the Sox pay most (not all) of Yelich's contract, hope that he continues to trend upward after finally being healthy for a full year (so that he's maybe a 3-3.5 WAR guy) and get an excellent starter without having to give up a massive prospect haul. Keep in mind that the Brewers last year played 76 games in a division that (including themselves and the Cards) played .435 ball outside the division. They played 57 games against teams that played .380 ball outside the division.
The equivalent in the AL East is exact: the Rays, Orioles, and Red Sox went 100-128 within the division ... exactly what the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds did in the NL Central.
Except the three weaker clubs in the AL East played .570 ball outside the division.
NL Central guys weren't anywhere as good as they seem. (Yup, including Renfroe.).
It's really complicated to put a number on this, but it's always bigger than you think. A pitcher in that division got to throw to a lot of guys who were lame and lousy based on their stats. But those hitters were facing the lame and lousy pitchers of that division and still put up their lousy numbers! You have to adjust the hitters for the pitchers and then vice versa, paste the adjusted numbers over the original ones, and run the adjustment again. And again and again ... about 20 times before the numbers stop changing.
I've done this for team W/L records and the end results are about 5 times the first set of adjustments.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 14:32:35 GMT -5
One more, that's irresistible.
Since 1998, 21 teams have been in the position the Phillies are in now, and only six have even forced a game seven.
Four of those six teams were Theo Epstein's.
The Sox of course did it three times in six years, 2003, 2004, and 2008, running the table on possible comebacks (being down 3-2 in '03 and 3-1 in '08).
The '03 Marlins of course came back from 3-1 against the Cubs and that was ultimately the cause of Theo going there ... and then coming back from 3-1 against the Indians in '16. Against the manager of the '04 team.
The only unrelated instance is the '19 WS, but given that the road team won every game, it deserves to stand alone!
Very interesting that 3 of the 4 successful comebacks were from down 3-1 or worse.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 13:51:55 GMT -5
Choose your own historical fact! A) Since 2009, teams coming home up a game in a 7 game series are 14-2, and 13 of those teams won game 6.
The 2020 Rays, in the ALCS vs. the Astros, were the only winning club that needed 7 games ... and all the games in that series were played at Petco, so it's really 13-2 with all 13 wins happening in game 6.
Both teams that lost game 6 lost game 7 as well . In fact ...
B) Since 2016, teams coming home up a game in the World Series are 0-2.
2016, Cubs win twice in Cleveland.
2019, Nats win twice in Houston [2020, Dodgers win game 6 vs. Ray ... in Texas]
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Of course, to find another team that won two on the road in the WS you have to go back to the '79 Pirates vs. the O's. Since then, home teams team up a game are 8-2. 1980 Phi over KC 1993 Tor over Phi
1995 Atl over Cle 1996 NYY over Atl 1997 Marlins over Indians in 7 2009 NYY over Phi (Pedro the losing pitcher)
2013 Bos over StL
... then the above.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 4:58:22 GMT -5
That sucks. Astros are hard to like. Phillies gave a solid accounting though. And neither is the Yankees. Not hard to root for Dusty and Vazquez I add Bregman to that list, as he establishes himself as the 3B on the all-time Jewish team, but that's about it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 3:18:24 GMT -5
It sure seems that if we keep Hosmer, there's precious little PT for him. But is that true?
Joc Pederson is a below average LF, but he's still playable out there (especially at Fenway). If you sign him as DH (or acquire someone similar for the job), his ability to play LF, combined with Kiké's ability to play the infield, can create PT for Hosmer that would be typical for a guy like him.
Obviously he'd back up both Casas and Pederson. Having a real 1B as a Casas backup has real value, I think.
If an OF is out of the lineup (for whatever reason) vs. a RHP, than Hosmer is at DH, Pederson is in LF, and depending on who's out, Verdugo may be in RF and Laureano (or Margot, etc.) may be in CF.
If a skill infielder is out, you obviously can use Arroyo, but you can also bring in Kiké and and have Hosmer DH with an OF of Pederson, Laurenao, and Verdugo (the thinner, more athletic version we hope tto see). You make that choice based on the opposing pitcher and your own need for OF defense based on who's starting for you.
It's a lot of flexibility. Even with his 2020-and-after modified swing he's still a good fit for Fenway, and I don't see a reason why they wouldn't have him work on going back to the swing he used most of his career, when he was an insanely good fit.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 2:54:09 GMT -5
You're adding one lefty bat. Why would you ever add a guy who is below average among all lefty hitters in baseball for opposite-field power, when your ballpark is famously great for lefty hitters who have it?
And why would a guy whose offensive game is all to RF want to spend the rest of his career playing half his games in one of the worst ballparks in MLB for power to RF? Nimmo is actually quite underrated as a hitter because Citi was an awful fit for him. He's not going to volunteer to have that happen again.
Because Brandon Nimmo will still be a 125 wRC+ hitter at Fenway even if he doesn't slug all that much. He has a career 13.6 BB% and .385 OBP. That will absolutely play at Fenway even if he doesn't hit the ball hard to LF. Combined with plus defense he is easily an above average player. And maybe I should clarify, I don't think Bloom should be fired if he doesn't sign one of Judge/Nimmo. I think he should be fired if we go into the 2023 season with zero outfielders projected to put up at least 3 WAR, which would be the 4th year in a row in which that was the case. Judge or Nimmo are just the easiest solutions to this problem, but if he can get Bryan Reynolds then go for it. I just think he'll cost an arm and a leg. You didn't address my most important point: why would Nimmo sign here when he could sign with any number of teams and be more productive?
And the other point: if you somehow did sign Nimmo, you need a RHB for DH (or else you have a seriously imbalanced lineup, one that will have either Devers or Casas facing face significantly more LHR in high leverage situations). Who is that person? I've looked and I can't find anyone I like.
Finally, you have to compare:
A) Nimmo plus mystery DH guy, for X dollars
B) Pederson plus Laureano for Z dollars.
Now, it seems clear to me that B is likely to be a better combination, and will definitely cost a lot less. The difference can be invested in other positions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 4, 2022 2:30:50 GMT -5
I think the baseball-sized hematoma may have affected Hernández this year, but what do I know? And yeah Verdugo is a 2 WAR player. That's an MLB regular. He's not hitting in the 3 spot. That's fine. And the Duran issue is resolved by not giving him as much run this year. Easy. Verdugo's also had 1.3 wins of clutch hitting per 600 PA with the Sox. Some of that seems to be predictive.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2022 17:45:42 GMT -5
Iâm not sure if the Giants would be willing to deal him, but Yaz can play all 3 OF spots, has been better away from SF throughout his career, and is good in high leverage (very small leverage splits in general). Heâs not spectacular at anything, but isnât a FA until 2026. It would be nice to have another CF/RF option here long term as Kiké is one a one year deal and Rafaela is no sure thing/will need time to adjust once he gets the call. Yaz was one of four candidates I came up with for RF when I was thinking, platoon partner for Refsnyder. He's my second choice in that scenario.
Joey Gallo has a pronounced every-other-year pattern and is due for a real good one, and would be a good Fenway fit, but he doesn't seem to hit good pitching at all (likely related to how poorly high-K hitters fare in the post-season). Ian Happ would be a great fit for Fenway but a bad or terrible one for the division. I ended uo ruling out both.
I believe they need another scary bat at least as much as they need a top-of--rotation starter. You can't count on Kiké or Casas to be one, for all their upside.
That's why I keep coming back to Pederson, who's as good a fit for Fenway as a lefty pull hitter can be, and seems to hit good pitching. All you need for offense in RF is league average, and if you're getting more, you're paying for it big-time.
The guy I settled on would actually make a great last man on the bench. Tyler Naquin. Can play CF and RF, has a 110 wRC+ the last 3 seasons versus RHP, and is a very good or great fit for Fenway, enough to offset the 110 being put up against weak competition. And he'd benefit quote a bit from hitting ninth behind Xander or whomever at the top of the order.
The idea is that when you're down a man any any position other than catcher, you have the option of moving Kiké to the infield and using a Naquin / Refsnyder platoon as a dirt-cheap, somewhat above average starter in the OF.
They really do need a LHB on the bench, and if they do sign Pederson, they can probably keep Hosmer. I'm warming to that idea (look for a post in his thread).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2022 17:03:36 GMT -5
"Only 25% above the QO" is a huge price tag for a guy thats about to turn 30, has health issues, and who's hitting strengths don't play to Fenway Parks dimensions Nimmos hitting strengths are that he gets on base a ton. That will play in any park, and he doesn't have much of a l/r split. I get that Nimmo has downsides (health, quality of contact), but the Red Sox are in desperate need of a corner outfielder and have lots of money but a good-not-great farm. They should use their money, and not their prospects, to buy that corner OF. And you are somewhat limited by what players are available. In my eyes it's one of Judge/Nimmo or the offseason is a failure, unless Bloom can swing some magic trade without touching any of our top 5 prospects. You're adding one lefty bat. Why would you ever add a guy who is below average among all lefty hitters in baseball for opposite-field power, when your ballpark is famously great for lefty hitters who have it?
And why would a guy whose offensive game is all to RF want to spend the rest of his career playing half his games in one of the worst ballparks in MLB for power to RF? Nimmo is actually quite underrated as a hitter because Citi was an awful fit for him. He's not going to volunteer to have that happen again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2022 5:31:20 GMT -5
If history matters, the Phillies are in rough shape.
(Playoff outcomes since they went to the 4-win CS in 1985 are completely different from those before, so that's what I'm using here.)
Teams going home up a game are 28-6 in series wins. They've gone 22-12 in game 6 and (interestingly) 6-6 in game 7.
Teams going home down a game are still 15-17 in series wins. They've gone 19-13 in game 6 and a ridiculous 15-4 in game 7. Which is to say, squaring up the series in game 6 seems to provide stupid-level momentum. The total home-team record in game 6 and 7 is 62-35 (including 23-10 in the WS) ; before 1985 it was 32-32.
(The four teams that came back to win game 7 after missing the opportunity to win it in 6: the '06 Cardinals vs. the Mets, the '14 Royals vs. the Giants, the '17 Astros against the Dodgers, and the '18 Dodgers against the Brewers.)
The 6 teams that came back from down 1 on the road are largely legendary -- '85 Royals vs. Jays, '91 Braves vs. Pirates, '03 Marlins vs. Cubs, '04, '16 Cubs vs. Indians, and '19 Nats vs. Astros.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2022 8:46:43 GMT -5
In terms of putting up a .881 OPS, I'm a little skeptical that he'll do that again. In terms of matching or even surpassing his 1.2 bWAR because he'd be in a defined role from day one rather than from his early June callup, resulting in him ending up closer to 300 plate appearances than 177? Yeah, that seems pretty reasonable. Some of Refsnyder's 2022 success is just luck, but it is also possible that some of it is due to a change in approach that he describes in interesting ways here: blogs.fangraphs.com/from-a-failed-quest-for-more-power-rob-refnyder-has-evolved-as-a-hitter/Statcast data I looked at shows a real, substantial difference, too.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2022 8:40:09 GMT -5
Am I the only guy who had fun with numbers last night?
Five different Phillies hit a total of 5 homers in the first 5 innings. Five Phillies pitchers combine for a 5-hit shutout.
Phillies' starter goes 5 innings for the win. Teams leave a total of 5 men on base.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2022 8:17:34 GMT -5
I hope everyone is rooting against the Astros, because if they win the WS, everyone on the team is going to want to return to see if they can go back-to-back.
Whereas ... Dusty Baker is Bobby Cox 2.0. By all reports (and some data I've seen) Dusty is fairly awesome at getting the best out of players. But he sure seems to be a subpar tactician. Lose this series, and I think Verlander tests the FA waters to see if there's a fit he likes better.
The pitch: "You want to continue pitching as much as you have, at your age, so that you end up gassed by the time the WS rolls around, go ahead and sign with someone else. I mean, we admire the hell out of that mindset, but there comes a point where that works against you. We want to reduce your workload just enough to make sure you're still in prime form throughout the Series, and who knows how many years we can add to your to year carer by doing that."
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Given that Sale, Bello, and Whitlock will all need limited workloads, I'd like to see them try a bold experiment: a 6 into 5 man rotation. Five guys pitch on 4 games rest and 1 guy pitches on 5, so that every one of the guys on regular rest skips every 5th start (usually pitching a or 2 innings relief on that day). And you can rotate who the extra-rest guy, if it seems like the right thing to do.
You can also occasionally not skip the start, and just use an actual 6-man rotation, depending on how a guy is going and how he feels, matchups for key series, amd so on.
It makes some intuitive sense to me that the extra rest -- limiting guys to 2 IP over 11 or 12 days about once a month -- might go along way to reduce the cumulative impact of minor nagging injuries. And if a guy actually has one, you can put him on the 10-day IL when his turn for rest comes around.
IOW, get super rotation depth and then exploit it to try to keep everyone healthy.
(BTW, Wacha has been dramatically better with an extra day's rest the last 2 years, and even better with 6 days.)
(Interestingly, both Sale and Verlander have a higher career ERA on 5 days rest than 4, despite no real difference in OPS allowed. That means they're pitching worse with runners on, i.e., out of the stretch, and neither guy pitches much out of the stretch to begin with. So they lose the stretch mechanics a bit when they get an extra day.)
(Maximum number of starts in a row without extra rest, 2022 Sox:
Wacha 2 Eovaldi 3 Hill 3 Pivaetta 5. Those were his last 5 starts in his tremendous 11-start run. He had a 3.23 ERA with a .630 OPS allowed in 16 starts at that point, and a 6.04 with .877 OPS allowed in 17 G after. That ain't random, folks.)
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Sale Acquistion Bello Whitlock resigned Wacha Pivetta [Crawford]
If you can't land Verlander or the equivalent, the Acquisition should be a solid #2 / #3 guy that you think can take a step uo to 1 / 2. IOW, like the Astros getting Cole or the Phillies Wheeler. The idea here is that you really want 2 outstanding guys going into a WS, two guys who will be a challenge to beat. You have to trust Sale to be one of those guys, and you have that potential in Bello and quote possibly Whitlock as well. So add one more candidate and the odds go up.
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Did anyone note Smoltz (talking about Framber V.) saying that sinkerball pitchers need a cutter to maximize the effectiveness of the sinker? Do folks remember me pointing out that the Sox had E-Rod add a cutter in his second year, and that the cutter was the easiest pitch to learn?
And Bello learned Hill's curve seemingly overnight. I'll be disappointed if he hasn't added both pitches by the end of the year. That's really exciting to ponder.
Oh, and Pedro can't wait to work with him.
(Whitlock should add a cutter, too.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2022 6:42:21 GMT -5
Sox have two vacancies in the regular lineup: corner OFer and DH.
In Bogaerts and Story they have 2 RHB who can hit 1 through 4. They have just 1 lefty bat that fits that bill. Sure, there's hope that Casas can be another by season's end, but they have a third righty candidate in Kiké. The imbalance is clearly righty-heavy, so you really want to add a top LH bat.
And if the top lefty bat is the corner OFer, that means you're looking for a RH hitting DH, and I can't find one to acquire (but see below). An elite LHB who can also play RF in Fenway is a star. It's probably overkill.
What makes sense is to sign Joc Pederson to be the DH and get a RF who hits righty and is above average but not elite. I've mentioned Laureano and Margot; the Brewers' Tyrone Taylor is another, more defensively oriented possibility.
Now, if you did add an expensive corner OF who was a LHB, the thing to do would be to give Bobby Dalbec a shot at full-time DH. I kind of like that idea in the abstract, but I have no idea whether it's a good one, and I find it hard to come up with a scenario that's better than adding Pederson and Laureano.
One wild card here: if Verdugo can get himself into the proverbial Best You-Know-What, he can play a solid RF as he did in his first year here. That gives you a lot of extra flexibility.
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2022 18:56:24 GMT -5
Fun Facts discovered on the way to (I hope) constructing a metric for fit-to-Fenway for RHB:
Last year there were 98 balls hit to left by RHB in Fenway, with an EV of 96 or better and a launch angle between 21 and 38.
(The 96 is not cherry-picked; there are significantly more balls hit 96 than 95, but not 97 vs. 96, and if we didn't have five fingers on each hand we'd never call 95 hard-hit.
21 is the lowest LA for a Fenway HR and 38 is .... well, you'll see in just a second!)
Expected batting line (BA / SA)
.654 / 2.276
(This is what you'd get if you took these 98 batted balls and distributed them horizontally like all balls hit, and in every park.)
Actual batting line (BA / SA)
.976 / 3.561
Sox: 1.000 / 3.298 (47 PA)
Opponents: .961 / 3.333 (51 PA)
We had a higher expected SA, and half of the 4 fewer PA is not batting in the bottom of 9th, so there's no real difference between us and the opponents.
The two outs were made by Glyber Torres and ... Tyler O'Neil! Both with a 21 LA, which is a LD in Statcast.
The Sox individual performance in this magic window are really interesting. JDM's problem was a low LA (average 26); he had 5 HR , 4 2B, 2 1B. Story had the same 11 balls in play and a lower EV, 102.9 vs. 103.7, but he had 9 HR, 1B, 2B, thanks to a 29.1 LA.
Who led the team in average xSA, average EV, and, and average distance? Hint: sample size of 1.
So a starting point for RHB fit to Fenway: percentage of PA that are hit in this magic window, compared to all RHB.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2022 13:19:35 GMT -5
MLBTR has O'Neil's arb salary at only $5 million next year. Give him $8 the next year, and that's 2/13. I'll guess he's good for like 5 WAR total those years. That makes him underpaid by like $30 million. Houck + Paulino sounds like a realistic package to me Baseball Trade Values has it close; you can add Seabold or Bonaci and it works. I came up with Rafaela, Coffey, and Seabold.
The big question here, is the MLB team in a position where you can trade talent for talent? Is the farm system in a position where you can trade a top-10 prospect? I think the answer to both is no. I really like the Rangers' Adolis Garcia, but the same caveat applies.
This winter they'll apparently be willing to spend cash. I'd be surprised if they don't hang on to all the talent they like, excluding guys they think will be lost in the Rule 5 (if any). If they do trade talent, I'll be reading it as their thinking they're selling high.
The other problem with acquiring a LF -- and that applies to Yoshida as well -- is that in a lot of scenarios, it means trading Verdugo, and Verdugo's actual offensive value over three years is double what the metrics (other than WPA) show. I'm convinced his clutch differential has a significant real (and hence predictive) component, but how many MLB teams think that, and would pay for it?
I also think Verdugo has a chance to take a step forward, and I believe it was Cora who essentially said as much. That's another reason that trading him would be selling low.
So if you're keeping him, the question becomes: is the difference in acquisition cost between O'Neill and Laureano worth the upgrade on the field? And I can't see it.
Every org wants to get in the position where they have so much talent that they can ignore bang-for-buck ("buck" including talent) and just get the best available player, period, like the Padres did with Soto. The Sox will never get there if they start shedding talent now. And Bloom has a good track record for spotting undervalued talent, which is what you need to do to simultaneously contend and build up the talent in the organization to that level.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2022 3:23:08 GMT -5
Perfect video to highlight the skills of a guy who had a .438 OBP and hit 11 HR last year.
Historically, Clay Davenport's translations have done a really good job of projecting international players (although it's been a while since I checked).
He has Yoshida with annual translated EqA's of .268, .292, .296, .300, .318. To put that in perspective, Xander's last 3 seasons were .309, .315 (career best), .303, .303, .313. Raffy's career best is .314 and and Story's is .315. Pederson's coming off a career-best .308.
Yoshida hit 21 homeruns in 2022 and 2021. Hit 14 in 2020. 29 in 2019. 26 in 2018. I don't know if you were making fun of my post or not, but you're not going to show highlights of a batter taking walks. You can see the raw power, even in short videos however. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas(My bad -- the 11 homers are adjusted to MLB. Lots of small ballparks in Japan, so HR totals need to be translated.)
I was poking fun at the editors of the video (which I'm very grateful you posted). You really don't want to fill the entire thing with essentially the same play; I actually was bored by the end of it (a natural consequence of utter predictability). All we learned about him in the 2-plus minutes is that he has a lot of surprising pull power for a 5'8" guy, but that scratches the surface of what a serious baseball fan wants to know about him as a player. How about some line drives to left field on tough pitches? He had a BS of .350- something and there must have been some of those. In fact, you can't put up a .350 BA with the swing we see there, so by not showing us some line drives to all field it fails to communicate that his ability to occasionally boost his launch angle and leave the yard big-time is a separate skill, and hence that much more impressive.
He has never put up a .500 SA in Clay Davenport's translation so he's not a slugger. He's quite evidently a great hitter.
Imagine if all you had ever seen of Tony Gwynn or Ichiro was a montage of the longest homers of their career.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2022 0:24:15 GMT -5
Yashida hits absolute tanks. Wow. Japan producing a lot of talent this off-season. I don't see how the Phillies can get Yashida. They have 2 LF/DH's. The Sox have a DH spot opening, probably a good fit and can fill in with LF if the bat is real. Perfect video to highlight the skills of a guy who had a .438 OBP and hit 11 HR last year.
Historically, Clay Davenport's translations have done a really good job of projecting international players (although it's been a while since I checked).
He has Yoshida with annual translated EqA's of .268, .292, .296, .300, .318. To put that in perspective, Xander's last 3 seasons were .309, .315 (career best), .303, .303, .313. Raffy's career best is .314 and and Story's is .315. Pederson's coming off a career-best .308.
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2022 23:41:21 GMT -5
1. Xander Bogaerts, SS 2. Rafael Devers, 3B 3. Trevor Story, 2B 4. Joc Pederson, DH 5. Kiké Hernandez, CF (hope for the best) 6. Triston Casas, 1B 7. Ramon Laureano, RF (buy low) 8. Reese McGuire, C 9. Alex Verdugo, LF (second leadoff)
Why not acquire a RHB who could hit 5th and drop Kiké to 7? All the seemingly attractive options have awful downsides.
Sign Contreras to DH and have him as the backup catcher! He has terrifying WPA vs. offensive WAA numbers over his career. The last thing his team needs is a player who's been awful in the clutch. (Murphy also has the same track record, so forget a big trade for him.)
Just sign Jose Abreu! His career numbers in the 7th through 9th are amazingly awful (compared to 1 through 6). Good relievers get him out. And any player from a Central division isn't nearly as good as their numbers.
Laureano has the same profile as Doogie: hits much better with the bases empty vs. RHP, does better in pitch-around situations than in challenge situations vs LHP, and has a nicely positive clutch differential. He had no string training in his two down years (COVID, suspension) and he'd be moving from the worst fan environment, and a bad team, to the best fan environment and a contender. He's entering arb and should be available fairly cheap; Baseball Trade Values has either W. Gonzalez or Coffey getting him even-up, but given that some other teams will have this idea, I figure two prospects from the 15 - 30 range.
An even better choice for RF might be Manuel Margot, but it's hard to see that happening ... unless the Rays trade for Laureano. Which could happen! Damn, now I have to look at his numbers.
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If they love Yoshida I'd be all over that. Just trade Doogie (otherwise you're way too lefthanded) and drop Yoshida into the 9 hole to give him a start without the pressure that usually comes with a big contract.
Then rethink the whole batting order once you get a handle on him, Kiké, Casas, and Laureano.
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2022 19:14:45 GMT -5
So one thing I am concerned about is how this lineup will do against LHP. Last year the team did fine against lefties primarily because Xander and JDM absolutely crushed them, hitting a 192 wRC+ and 175 wRC+, respectively. JDM is pretty obviously gone and Xander might too, so right handed power is something this team will need pretty desperately. Outside of those 2 the only other guys who can be counted on for anything are Story and Kiké. Dalbec was still fine against lefties last year (115 wRC+), but it would go a long way if he could find the stroke he had from 2020-2021 where he had a 134 wRC+ vs LHP. Arenado opting out adds another right handed power bat to the market which is always in short supply. I would add this is also why I like Nimmo a lot, he doesn't have much of a split in his career because so much of his value comes from his ability to get on base. Vs. RHP I am slightly less concerned since Casas should be getting regular ABs next year, and even though he is young I have a hard time believing he won't do fine against righties. But it would be nice to have at least one other guy that hits righties well in addition to Devers and Verdugo. Nimmo again is a good option here, but I also think Joc Pederson should be looked at. He has hit righties throughout his career really well, he hits the ball hard, and Fenway may be a good fit for him. Pederson was my top choice for DH and cleanup hitter even before I looked at his spray chart (which i just figured out how to find). He does not have oppo-field power like Raffy or Casas, which means he's not getting homers turned into singles, but last year he would have gotten at least a handful of outs turned to cheap hits. His pull power is real and he wouldn't have lost a single homer to Fenway, because he either hit is really far or close to the line ... and meanwhile the other AL East venues are very good for lefty pull hitters.
He has a history of exceeding his expected WPA (positive clutch differential) in his good seasons, which usually translates to hitting good pitching well, the opposite of JDM after 2018.
Basically a perfect fit. Being a DH is not easy but you can conceive of him getting some tips from a guy who was good at it.
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