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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 12:19:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 4 good innings... new pitcher, good stuff... suspect the third time through he might get hit, and if not then his next start when there's a lot more scouting/video. Edit:
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 12:16:10 GMT -5
Fun with Fangraphs, SSS, and the rotation, for AL SPs with 30+ IP Eovaldi second in pitcher WAR in the AL. ERod 12, Pivetta 33, Houck 42, Perez 69, Richards 78. If you pro-rate Sale/Houck, thats a really strong rotation. ERod is 12th somehow, despite a 4.88 ERA. Mike minor at 25th is only other one with ERA above 4 in the top 25. This is because for SPs ERod leads the AL in ERA-xERA. Houck the only starter in the top 75 in WAR without a pitcher win. Also the only one in top 50 with under 50 IP. Fangraphs pitcher WAR is based on FIP. I think it's fair for Rodriguez, whose FIP, xFIP, and xERA are all pretty similar (in the 3.40-3.60 range), but overrates Eovaldi, whose FIP (2.92) is a fair bit lower than his xERA and xFIP (around 3.50). When one of those three numbers is not like the others I'm inclined to discount the outlier. I think one of their chatters said they were thinking about switching their WAR to be xERA-based, which I think would be a good idea, as I think that's the most informative of those numbers. By that metric Eovaldi is 8th and Rodriguez 11th among starters with 100 IP. (And the White Sox have 3 of the top 5! I'm torn between thinking they look like the toughest AL playoff team and wondering why their record isn't better when they play in that weak ass division.)
I meant to and should have made clear I was just browsing and do not understand the details of the metrics and all that goes into it, so while Im sure the point remains, thanks for the clarification. I still think you let ERod go, if you believe in Houck/Pivetta/Whitlock with Seabold/Kutter/Perez/Richards providing some depth. But maybe his unlucky season has depressed his value. I just don't think he's a guy you give four years to.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 5, 2021 11:20:06 GMT -5
Fun with Fangraphs, SSS, and the rotation, for AL SPs with 30+ IP
Eovaldi second in pitcher WAR in the AL. ERod 12, Pivetta 33, Houck 42, Perez 69, Richards 78. If you pro-rate Sale/Houck, thats a really strong rotation.
ERod is 12th somehow, despite a 4.88 ERA. Mike minor at 25th is only other one with ERA above 4 in the top 25. This is because for SPs ERod leads the AL in ERA-xERA.
Houck the only starter in the top 75 in WAR without a pitcher win. Also the only one in top 50 with under 50 IP.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 18:39:33 GMT -5
Tanner Houck is the only AL pitcher in the top 100 in WAR to not have a win,,,
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 18:15:43 GMT -5
C'mon raffy. If you do it again, not even our Godawful bullpen can blow it.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 16:59:58 GMT -5
I'd rather Houck third time than Davis or Robles ever.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 16:58:57 GMT -5
I flat out disagree with pulling Houck. While there may be data to support it, there are likely contingencies which maybe don't support the generalization of the data to all cases.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 16:30:32 GMT -5
I swear if they can't get Tanner a win today...
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 4, 2021 16:27:03 GMT -5
Houck mentioned how much he loved Sale being around in Worcester. If Sale wants to create a bunch of clones, go for it.
If you made me bet I'd say Houck a SP next year and Whitlock setup-closer in waiting.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 2, 2021 14:08:25 GMT -5
Ericmvan - Im going to hold onto my anti-Dalbec as every day player narrative for this season, if he can go next year without a single negative WAR month, Ill be sold.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 2, 2021 14:06:54 GMT -5
Bloom did fine. Probably a B- for most fans at the time, B+ now. And maybe Covid hardship will inspire the team to get on a hot streak. I do wonder how many are vaccinated (read: will clear it faster and recover faster without much down time).
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 2, 2021 14:03:26 GMT -5
Bonaci pulled early? Could be Covid/exposure etc obviously, but it did make me wonder: how good a prospect has been traded after the July 31 trade deadline (essentially traded for someone who cleared waivers, if I understand the rule correctly) - asked specifically because if there was ever a team desperate to add mediocre MLB depth it would be Boston right now.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2021 16:59:45 GMT -5
I think Trey Ball is still trying to find the boxes of missing Trump votes.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2021 16:49:14 GMT -5
It would be crazy to drop Plawecki...or add Rafaela. I assume Perez stays as well, over Richards if it comes to it. And I think the numbers are off.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2021 15:48:08 GMT -5
Protect 5, lose 1. That's a success. Losing 1 player to the draft every year or two is the price you pay for protecting others. Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford Thaddeus Ward Josh Winckowski Kutter's new team will find he can't get MLB hitters out, and send him back in May Strongly disagree with your underlying premise that losing a player in Rule 5 every year or two is normal. Some years you're going to lose guys, sure, so I don't mean to imply it's never acceptable to lose one, but that should be on rare occasions. I wrote it up in the 2021 roster post... I don't even think they can realistically protect five of them, without really slashing MLB depth for a team they think can content. Bello and Crawford are the 100% locks to me. Jiminez/Downs/Ward because of potential. Winck/Feltman/Ort you just expect to get picked and live with.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 30, 2021 12:16:20 GMT -5
Its just incredible the shift in type of contracts. Overperforming guys on short contracts that can be given a QO or extended (Renfroe, Kiké), guys who are established starters with control left (Verdugo, Pivetta), guys you are paid to take (Ottavino) or get for spare parts (R.Hernandez, Pivetta, Seabold). Coupled with some interesting prospects, I think he's done an incredible job in just a couple years. Interested to see what happens with Bogaerts/JDM/ERod decisions coming up (maybe, probably not, no IMO)
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 30, 2021 12:08:08 GMT -5
I think we are at the point that Fitzgerald/Winckowski/Potts/Rosario are all not added/DFAd.
We may be choosing between Ort or Feltman, but Feltman seems like the exact type who would be picked up.
I don't think Gilberto is added personally. I just don't see him sticking. Tough risk to take, just like Downs.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 30, 2021 9:24:53 GMT -5
I made a comment about his promotion timing didn't matter because there wasn't a chance he starts in AA next year. I still say that because of age. But you gotta think we'll be having daily 'promote Yorke' threads by the end of May next year. Casas-Mayer-Yorke are a great top 3 hitters, and all top 50 consensus prospects (I assume). Jordan is a step back, in my mind because we haven't seen it against good competition very long, but is very age advanced. With a rebound by Downs/Duran (who are/have been top 100 prospects), and a good start for Jordan next year, its not crazy to think they could have 6 top 100 midseason hitters in 2022. Which is absurd.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 15:59:18 GMT -5
For what we are paying him can Sale do for Pivetta what he did for Houck?
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 15:54:52 GMT -5
Ive been down on Dalbec since early on, wanting him traded ASAP. But every time he gets a little closer to an .800 OPS I get closer to (happily) being proven wrong.
Boston SPs are 7th in Ks/9 IP. Rate wasn't given in "Ks per 4.2 IP with man on first and second and handing over to the bullpen"
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 15:44:56 GMT -5
20 pitches. Will be looking forward to Houck evolving as a pitcher, pitching to contact, better efficiency, etc. Same for Pivetta.
Boston SPs: 25th in pitches/IP. 24th in GB ratio. 26th in WHIP and BA against. Shockingly they are only 15th most RP innings pitched.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 15:36:23 GMT -5
Its sad we've moved from "get vaccinated so you don't get covid" to "get vaccinated so you don't get really sick from it", but I think I saw Kiké is vaccinated, dunno Arroyo. But man if I had Arroyo's luck I'd be getting every vaccine known to man. Also if you are a fringe roster guy... you gotta do everything you can to take opportunity and be present. I don't want to get another knives-out covid thread going but it was always "get vaccinated so you don't get really sick from it." It was just portrayed otherwise by just about everyone. That's what most vaccines have always done but the public perception is that they grant you absolute immunity because there has rarely been a need to make that distinction.
It was also impossible to predict how different the effectiveness of the different vaccines would be, in terms of viral load if you caught it after being vaccinated, which affects how likely you are to pass it on. It appears that a lot of baseball teams opted for the one-shot vaccine, so that they'd be able to get to 85% quicker and it's a drag that the one-shot vaccine isn't as effective as the two-shotters.
I didn't really think about the one shot vaccines... which would be a shame. But the majority of routine vaccines provide near absolute immunity. It's true that before the vaccines arrived we really didn't know what they would be. But the mRNA Covid vaccines were right about 95% effective at preventing disease, and nearly 100% at serious illness (actually was 100% in some early data). With the variants allowed to evolve through ineffective control of the pandemic worldwide, the advertised benefits of the vaccine have (appropriately) shifted.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 13:09:23 GMT -5
I was always keen on the "performs under pressure" component and then Sandoval happened. I'm still a fan of it, you just have to take into account the "quits immediately after he signs his contract" component as well. Admittedly, that one seems to be way easier to spot after the contract is signed than before. If I had two otherwise equal players, and one we knew/liked/performed in Boston, and ostensibly got along with everyone and fit in the clubhouse, even over a 40 game sample, that's worth something. Edit: one example may be getting Orlando Cabrera who did well and I think fit in, and then letting him go for the unknown fit in Edgar Renteria who they traded away?
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 13:03:05 GMT -5
Its sad we've moved from "get vaccinated so you don't get covid" to "get vaccinated so you don't get really sick from it", but I think I saw Kiké is vaccinated, dunno Arroyo. But man if I had Arroyo's luck I'd be getting every vaccine known to man. Also if you are a fringe roster guy... you gotta do everything you can to take opportunity and be present.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 29, 2021 6:02:18 GMT -5
.385/.529/.641 for an OPS of 1.170 now for Schwarber Very minor impact from our deadline acquisitions! Terrific job by Bloom with the pickup. He's had a tremendous year - even if team doesn't make the playoffs Bloom's done a great job. Nine AL teams were projected to be better than the Red Sox. The Schwarber pickup only further highlights the strong job he's done. I wonder if there's extra value in knowing the player, that he likes Boston/performs under the pressure etc....where some FAs come to Boston and disappoint...Im not sure it actually matters in real life, but in my mind Im way more excited about potentially signing him now than I would have been otherwise. Delete this when he OPS .650 next year...
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