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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 14, 2024 11:56:18 GMT -5
Yoshida had a 136 wRC+ in the first half, and a 73 wRC+ in the second half, when he was rolling over on ground balls and looked totally gassed. If you think he’s closer to his whole season wRC+ of 109 I can understand wanting to trade him. Personally, I believe he’s closer to his first half performance and have hope that he’ll come back with the necessary conditioning and adjustments to sustain that success. Fangraphs seemingly agrees, projecting him for a 120 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR. That player would be well worth the money. Edit: Incandenza beat me to it He was also projected for what a 131 wRC+ last year? Listen he can improve but I feel like people here would be mad if we traded him and signed Soler to a two year deal But logically that’s the most efficient thing we can do right now with that position no? If it's smart to trade Yoshida and sign Soler, then why wouldn't the team trading for Yoshida just sign Soler instead? If the Red Sox had to start a game today (ignoring platoons), they'd likely have 5 LHHs and 4 RHHs, so there isn't a clear lefty/righty issue (anymore) which this would solve.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 6, 2024 16:57:11 GMT -5
The 2 year decline of Cease's strikeouts (4.6%) and walks (0.5%) along with his decreased fastball velocity (1.0 mph) aren't good, but they're slight enough that they may be randomness/noise. He did set career highs in LD% (24.9%) and hardhit% (41.5%) which lead to a career high .330 BABIP.
The greatest change I see was the drop in effectiveness of his curveball over the past 3 years: +1.3, -5.1, -9.1 (runs above average). At the same time he has increased to usage of his slider (up 8.1%) while decreasing the usage of his changeup/splitter (4.4%). It's possible he has lost some of the feel for his curveball and a decrease in its usage while increasing the usage of his changeup could negate some of the loss.
I'd still feel pretty good about a guy who was the best in baseball last year in inducing bad swings. For anyone who hasn't yet, check out the 'sword' article linked at the top - it's interesting in ways aside from Dylan Cease as well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 5, 2024 11:31:21 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 21:35:50 GMT -5
Was able to listen to a few podcasts after work today and boy was that a mistake! Robert Murray, Fenway Rundown, and Jared’s latest pod all basically said the red sox are not looking to spend money and both Jared and Cotillo/Mcadam said they don’t think they’ll come close to the luxury tax line. As a fan i’m always going to be emotional and maybe they prove these guys wrong and i got worked up over nothing, but YIKES. They're, what, $37 million short of the LTT now? Signing two starters would get them close. Or one starter and one Teoscar. What explanation did all these people give for why they would fail to do that? If we're assuming they aren't going over the CBT this year, and that they once again have a buffer for in-season moves (8mil last year), then you're likely short a few mil (unless Paxton, or similar, is one of those starters).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 21:30:30 GMT -5
A Cody Bellinger signing would put a nice bow on today's Bader/Rafaela/backup 1B discussions. Oh god he would be a disaster here. His HR totals would be cut by more than half in 2021 and 2022 by Fenway, by 27% this year, he overperformed his xwOBA like crazy (only 53rd percentile), and he’s a lefty that pulls his fly balls 1.3x more often than the MLB average which will really hurt at Fenway. I’d rather just play Rafaela for almost no money even if he’s a 87 wRC+ hitter like steamer says. It would be one thing if you could keep him to a relatively short term or heavily incentive laden deal, but that seems unlikely. I don’t see the point of going huge on a glove first CF who has already lost his pop (22nd % EV, 27th % Brl, 10th % Hard Hit) at age 28.The interesting part about Bellinger's power loss is that it just happened this past year, when he bounced back with a 134 wRC+. Simultaneously he set a career best strikeout percentage (15.6%). The launch angle dropping to his previous norms at 17.2 (16.2-17.9 from 2017-2020), down from 22.2 and 20.3 in 2021/2022, likely contributed to his rebound. Not sure about Bellinger, but I like him much more than Teoscar. Both have huge risks, but at least Bellinger has upside and can play CF. Can see a path of trading Duran for pitching and signing Bellinger if the Red Sox think he can replicate his 4.1 fWAR for a couple of more years. His market has been pretty quiet in terms of rumors.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 15:13:50 GMT -5
The team just dealt chris sale with 17M to the braves to buy grissom. That doesn't really feel like a strapped for cash move. You can't tell me the dodgers or someone wouldn't have taken sale and his contract for a proverbial bucket of balls. Not saying they're gonna spend with the top 5 payrolls every year but they have plenty of money for 1 year deals on guys like Bader If they wanted to or at least that's my belief. On the surface I agree. But you do have reports (granted not from Heyman or Rosenthal) that state they're looking to get rid of Jansen's deal at 1/16 because they can't make an offer to a FA without it. That kind of tells me that they "can't afford" to spend 10 million on a 4th outfielder. Last year, as reported, the Red Sox had a payroll budget 8mil below the CBT at the beginning of the season. If we assume it's the same this year, that would give them about 37mil to spend, which is likely a bit short of signing Montgomery/Snell and Teoscar (or similar) and that's assuming they don't sign anyone else (while they still need a LHRP). opening another 10mil would give the Red Sox the room they need to operate. Given that Jansen is 36 and on the last year of his contract, he should hold value to an all-in team, which wouldn't be the Red Sox - so it makes sense.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 15:05:16 GMT -5
Personally, I don't see the point of keeping Rafaela in AAA. To me, his defense is good enough for Boston and his offense is good enough that it isn't being challenged in Worcester. I don't know if his bat will play in the majors, and I don't know if it's worth keeping him in the organization, but if it were me I'd say it's time to fish or cut bait. I felt the same way late last year, but now that he has had a chance to struggle at the MLB level (31.5% K%) the hope would be that he can work on improving his weakness at the AAA level (which wasn't happening last year). Obviously there is the depth consideration as well. Unless Rafaela comes out to spring training with newfound plate discipline, then the Red Sox are likely a better team to start the season with Rafaela in AAA (with a hope that he forces his way back onto the MLB roster). If your take is that the Red Sox shouldn't try to compete in 2024, I can understand wanting to push the kids to the majors, but after last season I'm sure there is pressure to remain competitive.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 3, 2024 17:51:21 GMT -5
I reposted 'What Is A Sword or Should The Red Sox Trade For Dylan Cease?' In the discussion forum as its not a trade post. For anyone reading the post it shouldn't be confusing, but feel free to change the name if necessary.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 3, 2024 17:48:04 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 1, 2024 23:54:35 GMT -5
Paxton? That's my one question from Atlanta's POV. Why wouldn't they just sign Paxton and keep Grissom? Do they really believe in Sale more? Or is Paxton going to go for way more than expected? Both Sale and Paxton have major durability concerns and are similar in age (Paxton is 4 months older) but Sale was more productive last season (2.1 fWAR to 1 fWAR) and has been better throughout their careers (3.1 ERA, 11.06 k/9, 2.1 bb/9 to 3.69 ERA, 9.86 k/9, 2.79 k/9) so Sale seems to have more upside. The difference isn't so much that it would be worth it for the Red Sox to lose a player like Grissom, but the Braves are looking for the finishing pieces on a championship contender, so they're willing to pay more in prospect cost for a slight benefit. Also we can't be sure Paxton wants to go to the Braves - but I do like the idea of the Red Sox substituting Sale for Grissom+Paxton if that's the result. In the event Sale stays healthy (no laughing), that 20mil option will have tremendous value as well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 29, 2023 23:47:47 GMT -5
Posted this a few weeks ago but seemsmore relevant now. Hopefully the Red Sox have identified something which will lead to him missing more bats while pitching in the zone. Giolito certainly looks like a different pitcher in 2022-2023 as opposed to 2019-2021 by several underlying statistics. 2019-2021 | 2022-2023: K/9 - 11.07 | 9.91 BB/9 - 2.88 | 3.49 HR/FB - 13.7% | 16.3% EV(mph) - 87.8 | 89.0 (7% | 9.3% barrel%) HH% - 34.4% | 40.3% (PI)Fastball - 49.4%, 94.2mph, +0.99 | 44.6%, 93mph, -0.61 (frequency, velocity, effectiveness) (PI)Changeup - 29.8%, 81.6mph, +1.56 | 27%, 81.1mph, -0.17 (PI)Slider - 17.6%, 85.2mph, +0.72 | 26.1%, 84.3mph, -0.50 Zone Contact - 77.3% | 85.2% So he has lost velocity, is throwing his fastball less and his slider more, all 3 of his primary pitches are less effective, he's giving up more walks (likely due to increased slider usage), recording fewer strikeouts, getting hit far more frequently in the zone and getting hit harder overall. I think it's safe to say that it isn't a homerun problem or bad luck, he's just getting hammered when pitching in the zone. The loss of velocity is a likely culprit, but even so, the loss of effectiveness from all of his primary pitches seem extreme and there may be more going on. (I excluded data which has been fairly consistent or appeared to have random noise) Add: the increase in slider usage began in 2021 and has trended upwards in each of 2022 and 2023.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 27, 2023 1:40:06 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 27, 2023 1:34:12 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 22, 2023 9:49:04 GMT -5
The link is old but you definitely do not get $100k for minor league picks. It is likely much closer to the old $12k from the link than $100k. That said, your point that this is like trading these guys for "cash considerations" is pretty much correct. It's just definitely not any kind of windfall. The cost for a minor league rule 5 draft pick is currently 24k.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 18, 2023 14:36:00 GMT -5
For anyone wondering, the percentage of pitchers listed at 5'10" or shorter year-to-year hovers around 3%.
Although the accuracy of the listings are always questionable (not sure if NPB heights would be any more accurate).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 18, 2023 3:25:33 GMT -5
Does O’Neill have the arm for right? St Louis NEVER used him there (he started 11 games as a rookie and 1 game there the following year). He hasn’t even appeared in right since 2019. Last year he was 31st of 152 in average arm strength for outfielders. 92 of 156 in 2022 and 29th of 155 in 2021. Comparatively Verdugo was 20th, 77th and 15th in those 3 years. So a slight step down, but still above average arm strength for an outfielder (assuming 2022 was an oulier). Good enough in my opinion. Not sure why he hasn't played RF since 2019, but the new kid they have out there (Walker) has a very strong arm (as does Abreu). (Samples are from 100+ outfield throws for each year according to Statcast)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 17, 2023 16:25:06 GMT -5
Don’t know if he fits after the O’Neill trade. I guess he could if you put O’Neill in RF My current assumption is that O'Neil is the starting RFer with Abreu taking some of his at-bats. If you're thinking that Yoshida is DH with O'Neil is in LF with Duran in CF and Abreu in RF then you're counting on Duran repeating/improving, Abreu's SSS success continuing and O'Neil staying healthy - that's at least 1, if not 2, more gambles than I'm comfortable with. I think they need at least 1 more bat in there (even with Rafaela). If they land Yamamoto or Montgomery, picked up Merrifield for 2B (who's also a solid OFer), resign Turner to DH (and backup 3B/1B) and get a LHRP (Matsui) then they should stick below the 2nd CBT line and I'd be quite happy.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 17, 2023 16:11:12 GMT -5
Gurriel wouldn't have been a bad fit. RHH, best defensive asset in LF has been his arm (which would play well at Fenway) and has experience at 1B, 2B and SS (was quite bad at SS) earlier in his career. Good flexibility from an above average bat. 3-year deal will take him through age 32, so should be solid throughout.
Not the best 'plan-A' but puts more pressure on the Red Sox to acquire another RH bat/2B.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 17, 2023 2:49:17 GMT -5
Can't we just go 10/400 but defer enough that it's really 10/275? I'm not aware of a posted player ever receiving deferred salary. Do we know if the payment is based on the current day value of the contract, the total value upon payment or is it paid when he's paid? If the payment to the posting team is based on total value (400mil in this case) then it wouldn't make sense for either party and would explain why it hasn't happened yet.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 16, 2023 18:58:13 GMT -5
In terms of pure hype, Daisuke was very different. Even before he was signed there was an endless string of of on-air personalities discussing his mythical gyro-ball. I don't expect Yamamoto to come anywhere close to that in terms of US media attention (and pressure) before he even throws a pitch.
Yu Darvish gained far less attention, but I think he was a better 'pure prospect' than Yamamoto. He's 6'5" and pitched off his plus (or better) fastball, which was less common at the time in Japan (where they often pitched off their breaking balls). He was the same age as Yamamoto at the time and spoke English pretty well as his parents met in college in Florida.
With 3 straight MVPs Yamamoto takes the cake in terms of success in NPB and has received a fair bit of fanfare, but I think he would have even more attention if it wasn't for the scouts preferring Roki Sasaki as a pure prospect. It was rumored Sasaki had asked to be posted and was denied (he's only 22) but it will be interesting if he tries to push again next year or waits until he's 25 and can receive a major league contract (and his team can get major $$ for his posting).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 16, 2023 12:45:43 GMT -5
There's an extra wrinkle regarding income tax on the deferrals. California has a 13.3% maximum tax bracket which will soon rise to 14.4%. These taxes are applied to the state of residence at the time the income is received and not when it is earned (unlike federal income tax). So if Ohtani were to move to Texas, where there is no state income tax, he could avoid paying it altogether. It's more likely that he goes back to Japan where they have a slightly more complicated 10% local tax - I'm not sure if this would apply to the deferred payments (US & Japan have an agreement to avoid federal double taxation).
It should be noted that there are means by which California can try to receive a portion of the state taxes when the deferments are paid, but that's a legal matter.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 15, 2023 16:11:36 GMT -5
Ask yourself this. Ohtani just deferred 68 of his 70 mill per year to sign with LA. I guarantee Yamamoto was a big reason. If youre Yamamoto are you going to play with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman. Or do you come to a last place team that has one all star in the field and one in the bullpen. Colder weather and a further flight home. Lets just be honest with ourselves at this point. We got Yoshida by outbidding everyone. Thats the only way were going to get anyone great until we get better. This is not true, it has been widely reported that offers from other teams' offers were similarly structured. It was Ohtani, and his agents', plan to have most of the money deferred from the get-go due to his high marketing income. The Dodgers have many advantages over the Red Sox currently, but the Red Sox have his long-time teammate Masataka Yoshida. My hope at the time of signing Yoshida was that it would get us Yamamoto and I'm still holding to that hope until/unless he goes elsewhere.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 15, 2023 15:59:16 GMT -5
Ok then I guess Buster Posey doesn't know what he's talking about when he said the Giants were having issues attracting free agents because of what's going on in the city and that he thought it definitely affected Ohtani's decision. Posey said that drugs/homelessness may have had an affect on Ohtani's decision. Not because the SF mayor had a stupid party, also Buster Posey probably has absolutely no clue if it had anything to do with Ohtani's decision so what the heck are we even talking about here.. May be picking nits but I think it was crime and not homelessness that Posey was implying was an issue. San Francisco is high in crime and drug abuse, but I've never heard anyone from California imply they wouldn't live there for those reasons - it's always only due to cost of living (which is insane). FWIW, Los Angeles has a worse homeless issue than San Francisco - there are some spots in the LA area where you can barely drive down the street due to the homeless encampments. But keep in mind, LA and the bay area are quite large and segregated by wealth/income - hard to imagine a wealthy person coming across these issue and certainly not regularly.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2023 11:49:11 GMT -5
The list didn't have much meat on it, and certainly nobody would ever put BR anywhere close to the top publications that focus on MLB prospects. They are more basketball focused after all.
But is having Perales 4 (or so) spots lower that extreme? Blaze Jordan over Abreu seems wrong to me, but is it unthinkable a reasonable person can come to that conclusion? Is it inherently wrong to say that Mayer, Anthony and Yorke are all top-100 prospects? (I posted what the tiers mean as there seemed to be confusion)
I appreciate the constructive criticism which usually comes from these threads. But last time I saw responses like this it was when I first posted the Fangraphs rankings many years ago.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2023 11:03:15 GMT -5
What would "opting out" mean after, say, year four of this deal? He'll have banked $8 million and would be leaving $692 million on the table? Or he would still receive 4/10ths of the deferred cash? The deferred money is guaranteed once it has been earned. The funds are verified 4x a year before being dispersed.
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