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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2019 8:17:12 GMT -5
Ted Williams would have hit 100 HR a season if he were on the Yankees or Astros today. Boy, I'd sure hate to root for a team where certain hitters get a crazy advantage from the dimensions and/or features of their home park...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 14, 2019 12:55:04 GMT -5
I hate saying this, but what has really hurt the Dodgers is that they have a HOF pitcher in Kershaw who leads them to the post-season year in and year out and he becomes a totally different pitcher in the post-season and it deflates that team. I can only wonder how well the Dodgers would do if Kershaw pitched in October the way he does the rest of the year. It's not all on him, but he's a big part of it as he is one of their key pitchers. It's like how tough it was to win when David Price was in your post-season rotation - until he finally got that huge monkey off his back. That's also why it's such nonsense when people try to construct some narrative about how the Dodgers haven't won a World Series because there's some fatal flaw in how they build their teams, that they haven't fully "gone for it". You're basically saying "if these fools were serious about winning they'd ditch that Kershaw bum". In the last couple years you can argue they've relied on him too heavily (particularly this year) but for the most part there was no other decision to be made other than handing that guy the ball.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 14, 2019 8:22:29 GMT -5
Package 2 is a *little* closer...only because Patiño has 2 upside and will start the year in AA, at just 20. Idk why they keep giving the Sox Renfroe...he has no long-term place on this team. He has very good power, but he’s basically about what they can expect from Bobby Dalbec. As such Renfroe has zero value to them...he’s more expensive and he’ll be 28, meaning he’s pretty much announced who he is, and it’s not impressive. Jankowski would be a waste of a roster spot. No thanks. He's their JBJ, apparently. That guy who you know isn't that good or that cheap or that young, but you can talk yourself into thinking must have value on the trade market, even though those things are inherently contradictory. The rue for a trade proposal is this: if you're constructing them such that there's no possible way you'd end up regretting the trade, you're constructing bad trades.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 12, 2019 7:12:40 GMT -5
Again, I’d pose the same question I did to James: what’s your roadmap for remaining in contention while getting under the $208M threshold? I don't know, it's like asking how to get your credit card debt under control while moving to a nicer apartment. I mean, try scratch tickets? A plan that tries to accomplish both of those goals is inevitably going to be a lot sketchier than a plan that focuses on one or the other.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2019 13:08:56 GMT -5
I had somehow missed that, on top of everything else, Juan Soto walked 108 times this year? No 20 year old should have that kind of control of the strike zone. Bryce Harper in his age 19 and 20 seasons was a 125 OPS+ hitter. At the time, this seemed like more or less full confirmation that the hype was real, the SI cover had been fully justified, etc, because of course we how rare and how significant it was to be an above average MLB player at that age. And now, not quite ten years later, Soto is a 140 OPS+ guy in the same age seasons and it seems kind of normal. Soto is not even clearly the most promising young player in that division. In the context of 2019, Harper still looks like a guy who was justified and totally successful number one pick, but his trajectory is much closer to the new norm for superstar talents. In other words, the thing that seemed so unique about Harper was actually a kind of a preview of what everyone would look like in a few years.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2019 12:07:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess I think...well, either they blow it up and stink, or they get creative and lucky and make several $5-8M-saving moves, and find out what they have. Chavis provides a little cover for Dalbec at 1b. Lin/Hernandez/Chatham/Chavis some cover for 2b. Duran/Wilson some cover for CF/COF. As you say, there’s close to nothing for them in FA beyond fringy guys like Hamilton who, luckily for the Sox, are a relative “inefficiency” in the market: 1-1.5 win players can be signed for $1-2M deals. That makes minor downgrades from true regulars like JBJ or expensive backups/platoons like Pearce/Moreland feasible. Yeah, they lose a win here and there, but it’ll never come close to the loss of 6 wins from Mookie. And that sort of depth is at least easy to find. And if they can find a way to get some SP depth on the cheap (one of Atlanta’s young guys, Jon Gray, maybe a pillow deal bringing back Pomeranz, whatever), they at least have a *shot* at contending. And honestly, if it doesn’t work out, sell big at the deadline and reload the next winter when a lot of those 45-FV guys they have on the verge or early in their MLB careers (Dalbec, Chavis, Darwinzon, Houck, Feltman, Duran, Wilson, etc) have kinda announced who they are. They’re basically at the point of gambling pretty big (yet winning either way-playoffs or a trade deadline bonanza), or packing it in. Why not take a shot? Get crazy...see if Barnes can start. See if Dalbec can pitch. See if you can get a guy like Lorenzen and turn him back into a SP. if the alternative is losing anyway, then they have nothing to lose. If that were true, why would there be any trade market for JBJ at all?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2019 11:28:11 GMT -5
So while at first a guy like Billy Hamilton seemed crazy. There isn't much on the free agent market we can afford. Bradley almost has to go if your keeping Martinez and Betts. The fact you'd have Duran and Wilson for depth makes Hamilton semi OKAY, or some guy like him you trade for.Hamilton, Duran, Wilson would probably be the worst CF depth chart in baseball next year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 12:43:14 GMT -5
Also, that the ball magically just completely changed all of a sudden right in time for the playoffs, shows that they know exactly what they're doing in regards to the ball and have for awhile. I mean, it could also prove that they just recently figured out what the actual change was. (I don't think it actually proves much of anything, but one way or another, MLB has undermined it's own legitimacy in a significant way here. Which is high on the list of things MLB should not do.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 12:35:48 GMT -5
They’re not the same. I said by putting Hamilton out there they’d be saving $8-10M but giving up 1-2 WAR. It’s a stop-gap 1-year move until Duran is ready, if they want to keep Mookie but refuse to maintain a $220M payroll. JBJ probably nets just a 45 FV prospect and maybe a lottery ticket (he figures to be worth roughly $16-20M in production for a $10M contract). If they really intend to get under the lux tax mark, at $208M, they’re going to have to make some risky sacrifices like this. They’d have to hope the team hitting environment/coaching rubs off enough on Hamilton that he can slap his way to .260/.300/.320 or so and provide outstanding defense and baserunning value. Or, go out and find another fringy-hitting defensive-minded CF for minimal cost. Their offense can afford a slight hit, but the OF defense really can’t. They also need to save $ while reworking the rotation. Maybe JBJ+Chavis+/- prospect to CO for Gray, and putting Chatham at 2b and Dalbec at 1b gets them close. OTOH, if JDM leaves, they’re going to have to do some work on offense as well. Still, it should improve the infield defense. And even if they have to let Holt go, Marco/Chatham is probably a serviceable to solid platoon. Maybe Gennett can be had for a cheap show-me deal, but there aren’t many options for reducing payroll right now, beyond lucking into trading Price and not having to pay more than half his salary (in which case they still need to find yet another starter). A 45 FV guy is optimistic for a player with one year of control who barely projects to outperform his salary. The problem with all these trade proposals is that good trade proposals are usually based on someone dealing from depth, and the Red Sox have no depth to deal from. Save $10m trading JBJ? Great, now you have to replace him with someone who'll sign for like $5m or less, which means someone who really might not be a major league quality player at all. Trade Chavis? He plays for the minimum, and the next guys on the depth chart are, again, maybe not major leaguers at all. It's just really hard to make this all work without some plan that proposes our new GM come in and immediately fleece like three different teams. No pressure.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -5
Gabe Kapler is out in Philly. It took the Phillies 10 days after the season ended to do it. If/when Roberts gets the boot in LA, I feel like he'd be a good fit there. Issues with his game management aside (and they're important issues), his skills in the clubhouse might go a long way into fixing whatever it is, exactly, is going wrong with the culture of that team. The worst thing Philly could do is bring in someone without coaching experience. A first-time hire (Espada for example) would be okay, but not a celebrity who isn't used to coaching every day and seeing the clubhouse from that side of things. I don't think Kapler did anything in Phillie that makes this firing unjustifiable, but that team is struggling because they did the full Astros/Cubs teardown and didn't end up developing the core talent they needed. They've even done a reasonably good job at flipping some of those disappointing prospects for guys like Segura and Realmuto, and Harper looks like a good addition at least for a while, but Nola/Kingery/Hoskins as your homegrown core just isn't getting it done. I don't know that any manager can solve that problem.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 7:59:11 GMT -5
IYO Who would you say are the best pitchers in MLB who don't have a throw it through the wall fastball? asking because more guys seem to be throwing hard and arm/ shoulder and elbow injuries are clearly up? Greinke is a really good example He really is the new Maddux. Greinke sat mid 90s and touched 99 when he came up (and for a while after), and even now he can get 94-95 when he needs it. Kyle Hendricks I think has to be the best current example of a reliably good pitcher who has never thrown hard. Those guys are unicorns, though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 10, 2019 7:34:53 GMT -5
Maeda was filthy after Kershaw gave it up in the 8th, striking out the next three batters. I get the Dodgers have a few question marks in the bullpen, but if you keep it simple with Maeda in the 8th and Jansen in the 9th you probably win. Once the lead was lost, you definitely have to get Jansen or Kolarek (who's been handling Soto all series) or someone else in there at some point; like, right after the leadoff walk. Instead, they intentionally walked Soto only to leave Kelly in the game to face Kendrick, and beyond. Ross Strippling pitched an inning in this series. Using Kershaw in that spot... I get wanting your best guy out there, but given Kershaw's playoff baggage, that he's getting older, he's been injured, his stuff is diminished... you're not putting your best guy on the mound, you're putting your guy with the best Baseball Reference page on the mound. It's almost the old Theo bit about not paying for past performance. Roberts wasn't paying for past performance but he was managing to it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 8, 2019 14:40:33 GMT -5
It is pretty funny how the Twins can turn over their entire front office, coaching staff, and players, yet everyone's reaction is still "phfff, same old Twins" like Brad Radke just gave up a three run double to Jorge Posada.
(I suppose winning a game or two might help.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 8, 2019 14:34:40 GMT -5
Ray Searage or Jim Hickey sound good? Searage coached Cole and Glasnow in Pittsburg, hard pass on that guy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 7, 2019 9:31:53 GMT -5
Last year the Dodgers rented Manny Machado, the absolute best player available without question, and he played like it. The Red Sox got Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce, complementary pieces who might have played the best baseball of their life in October. The idea that the Dodgers haven't been willing to make moves to GO FOR IT and therefore are stuck in perpetual Buffalo Bills "almost good enough territory" is a comfy narrative but it falls apart pretty fast. Also the Buffalo Bills comparison implies that the early-90's Bills could've done something differently. The Dodgers have won over a hundred games two out of the past three seasons. How much more "going for it" can you do? The complaint is basically that they're doing this too efficiently.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 6, 2019 12:22:50 GMT -5
Obviously the Dodgers are never going to win a World Series, those clowns don't even have Steve Pearce on their roster.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 6, 2019 11:47:31 GMT -5
Did anyone else gag in their Cheerios when they read this line in the Globe? I love what Duran has done, but for Peter Abraham to write in a paper owned by the Red Sox owner that he could help make it "easier" to deal Mookie is journalistic malpractice ... If Duran shows he can hit advanced pitching, he could give the Red Sox an outfield option at some point in 2020. That would make it easier to deal Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. this winter. It really proves the opposite of what it intends. That Duran is the proposed replacement for one of the current OFs just goes to show how little flexibility the Red Sox actually have to trade any of them. I like Duran, he was a sharp pick by the Red Sox, but even an optimistic projection for the guy is that he'll be a nice fourth OF in a couple years.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 12:16:16 GMT -5
I'd missed the Billy Hamilton bit. He had a 0.3 bWAR and 0.4 fWAR; Jackie Bradley had a 2.0 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where they're the same. It's also the third straight sub-1.0 WAR season for Hamilton. Hamilton is also a speed-first (only?) player who will be 29 who had a .275 SLG in a season in which offense was at an all-time high, and has not posted a .300 OBP since 2016. If this were 1977 and there were 10 pitchers on the roster I would make him my 25th player and give him 11 plate appearances all season. Most PAs without a home run, 2019: 3. Jon Jay - 182 2. Lewis Brinson - 248 1. Billy Hamilton - 353 He's not a major leaguer, other than maybe on some postseason rosters. Side note, remember when the Royals were reinventing baseball?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 9:41:25 GMT -5
Billy Hamilton has worse offensive projections than Sandy Leon. He's minor league depth in a good organization.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 9:36:34 GMT -5
Which would be selling low, I think. If he's healthy and pitching anything like he was this year before the wrist injury, you could probably clear $20M or more of that contract and maybe even get a chip-in prospect back. Really, I think that's the strategy I'd be pushing as the new GM. Go for it next year and THEN if it doesn't work you trade everyone at the deadline and do the Yankees style quick rebuild. There's a risk that you end up not competing AND not getting under the cap because you got caught in the middle, or all the expensive guys got hurt and weren't tradable, but all your available options have a lot of risk when you're proposing to cut salary and fill multiple holes on the roster at the same time. I think if Price was coming off his 2018 season that would be selling low. But coming off his 2019 season, another year older, missing a number of starts - and yes I know the cyst is not arm or shoulder related, it would be hard for me to see another team paying half or more for him, I don't think another team would pay the majority of his salary for the next three years, but I won't dismiss it out of hand either, I suppose. That's the definition of selling low.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 4, 2019 8:54:02 GMT -5
Marcus Wilson is cool and all, but he's not moving the needle on whether it's a good idea to take on Price's contract. Agreed. The Sox would need to pay about 2/3 of Price's annual salary for another team to have interest. That would save them $10 million/year as would dealing JBJ and signing a Hamilton type until Duran is ready - although that's risky. More likely Betts would move to CF in that scenario and the Sox could have an easier time finding a scrap heap corner OF who doesn't cost much but will provide as much if not more offensive value than JBJ which would be offset by the hit on defense. But still that would save $20 million and might allow them to bring back both Betts and JDM. However, losing Price puts another big hole in the rotation. Which would be selling low, I think. If he's healthy and pitching anything like he was this year before the wrist injury, you could probably clear $20M or more of that contract and maybe even get a chip-in prospect back. Really, I think that's the strategy I'd be pushing as the new GM. Go for it next year and THEN if it doesn't work you trade everyone at the deadline and do the Yankees style quick rebuild. There's a risk that you end up not competing AND not getting under the cap because you got caught in the middle, or all the expensive guys got hurt and weren't tradable, but all your available options have a lot of risk when you're proposing to cut salary and fill multiple holes on the roster at the same time.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 3, 2019 13:45:21 GMT -5
1) If they want Price to have a career resurgence like Verlander and Grienke the go hire Houston's pitching whisperer Strom and two of his player development guys and make Strom a VP. They are finding efficiencies in pitching like no other team right now. This narrative is getting out of hand. Grienke was exactly the same guy in Arizona. Verlander's resurgence is a bit overblown as well and has as much to do with his once-in-a-generation UCL as anything. Not saying they aren't good at building a pitching staff, but Houston struggled to find starters internally this year. McHugh flamed out as a starter, Valdéz didn't take any steps forward, James got hurt, Corbin Martin was bad and got hurt, Whitley wasn't called up, and more. The Grienke trade was born out of their failure to come up with another guy internally.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 3, 2019 10:31:42 GMT -5
The A's-Rays game is an example of why team's shouldn't sell out for a WC spot. The Athletics were the better team, but not last night and that's all it takes. I really really really hate the format. The one-and-done playoff format just feels like such an F-U to the fans of a team that won 97 games this year. It's like you made the playoffs without making the playoffs. Even if the A's just got one more chance to win a game... I know a three game series is about as random, but doesn't losing two games feel a lot more like being legitimately defeated than one? At least it's a series, at least your team got one more chance to not have their season undone by a three run donger in the second inning.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 3, 2019 9:50:07 GMT -5
If the Astros don't win the World Series with Verlander/Cole/Greinke then I don't know what anything means anymore. I don't know why people think the playoffs are a best rotation contest when the results have never reflected that, or at least not in the modern era.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 2, 2019 11:33:05 GMT -5
Because they can win their division by 20 games while staying under the cap. It was a long road for them to get to that point, not one slash-and-burn offseason. Same with the Yankees. Sure-- this is why you don't pay $300m. That was my point. Henry is okay to try to get under the 1st threshold this 2020 season. As far as slash and burn one season. The Sox had 3 good seasons didn't they? And they've won a championship. I'll take what the Sox have done over the last 15 years over what the Yanks and Dodgers have done. No, that's why The Dodgers don't. It took the current front office many years to get them to this point. My problem isn't as much that the Red Sox want to get under the cap, it's that they're doing a terrible job of it. The Mookie situation is Jon Lester all over again, they made a couple of bad deals and now they're scared to make the a good one.
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