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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 6, 2019 12:38:16 GMT -5
You're right. There was no fist pounding. Some question marks/ concerns, but no one was ANGRY or immediately calling it an albatross right off the announcement. It's also very possible he wins the Cy Young this year and earns his contract. It's just a bad look and they could have saved money. With that said, that's the job of the president/GM to identify the right guys to lock up. I know I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth on Sale. I think they should have waited, but I think the reason both sides agreed to a contract is that they wanted Sale to take the early season easy and for a guy heading into free agency I don't know how you'd agree to that. I think the extension was to get him to agree to the plan. Saved money for what? This reminds me of the Family Guy mystery box scene. "Well a boat is great, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat!" A boat, or like... a Mookie Betts extension. Because for all the wailing about how bad a Mookie Betts contract might be, I'd bet $300m on that guy before I'd bet $150m on ANY pitcher.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 6, 2019 12:32:11 GMT -5
But what is the alternative? This FO does not value developing starting pitchers, which makes sense because it's the hardest position to consistently develop. So then what, sign worse pitchers just because they may be younger and cheaper? You don't win that way. Getting these guys as their value fades sucks but it's the only way to compete at a high level. This year's Red Sox team is a perfect example of that, the offense is really good but the team isn't because the pitching is bad. You NEED that top end pitching talent. So yeah, Price and Sale are negative values on their contracts right now. But given that they were two headliners of a rotation that won the World Series last year, doesn't that add enough value to make it worth it? Would you rather have three seasons of 85-90 wins and not make it out of the first round of the playoffs or win 108 games and a World Series, and then play with house money from there? No, I’m not actually saying don’t take the risk. I am saying don’t grouse if it doesn’t pay off. I was no fan of the Price deal, but I get it. I figure the WS ( even if he was not the difference) makes it worth it. I am a fan of the Sale deal. What I am REALLY not a fan of is deploring the Sale deal post facto because we could have gambled on someone else. Yeah, if I bet on something and lose (though I deny losing on Sale at this point), it’d be great to gave bet anything else. But that’s childish. He wasn't? There's no stopping the hating David Price industrial complex, but all things considered, that contract is going pretty well.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 19:40:06 GMT -5
The last decade of Boston sports has conclusively proven that more winning = worse fans.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 19:32:37 GMT -5
It doesn't, though. His peak velos are down too. His fastest fastball this year was 98.4 per Fangraphs, last year he touched 100.9. If you look at their rolling velo graph, it's pretty clear that he hasn't had his best fastball since getting shut down late last season. And yeah, reduced velocity for Sale is still a lot of velo for any other pitcher, but it doesn't always work that way. Matt Harvey still has above average velocity, but a guy who was an ace when he touched 100 is trash now that he "only" touches mid-90s. Or the dead-arm version of Aroldis Chapman that shows up from time to time, who still throws like 97 from the left side but he's not near the same pitcher. Loss of velocity is always a concern, even when the pitcher seems to have velo to spare. Those are such bad comps. Harvey was a flash in the pan. Chapman is a closer. They're not comps, I'm making a point about pitchers who lost fastball velo. It's not just about velocity relative to everyone else, velocity relative to their own baseline matters as well. Guys aren't as good when they're not throwing their best fastball. You could look it up.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 16:14:22 GMT -5
Someone in the organization has an extremely methodical management style. Just think how long it took for Nunez to get on waivers ... How long it took Brewer to get optioned. What's the next big decision? We'll all get an ulcer waiting for it. That's what happens when you have no depth.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 15:58:03 GMT -5
Yeah but Sale had issues last year. ANd when I joined here - I learned about "violent delivery." Heck I can remember going back and forth with someone who was scared to death from the get-go because of potential injury due to his delivery. We were going back and forth as to whether we liked the trade. The point is-- I think the trade was needed because Price was no longer price and was unsure about Porcello. So yeah now going forward Im concerned about Price and Sale similar to year's before. For next year we do have again a tremendous hitting lineup potentially returning so I would have liked someone safer than Sale. Cole seemed like a better safe bet than Sale. Hey who knows COle's arm could breakdown too - I get it. It's just that sale had red flags prior ot coming on here and at the end of last year they were magnified. This would be more germane if he was on the IL or if he was throwing 89. He’s not. His fastball is down (1.9 mph), but he still gets it up rapidly when he needs it. He is striking out 13 per 9, so velocity seems irrelevant. We can argue his future but won’t know until, er, the future. It is tough to call his decline precipitous, though. His Ks are high. His BABIP is 35 points over last year, which might mean bad luck (or better wood, yes). One striking thing is his HR/9 is 3x what it was last year. That strikes me as substantial. And his walks are up. As we saw the other day, that may or may not be all his fault. I am optimistic. I’ll go further: I bet Sale is more productive over the life of his contract than Cole will be on his next contract. It doesn't, though. His peak velos are down too. His fastest fastball this year was 98.4 per Fangraphs, last year he touched 100.9. If you look at their rolling velo graph, it's pretty clear that he hasn't had his best fastball since getting shut down late last season. And yeah, reduced velocity for Sale is still a lot of velo for any other pitcher, but it doesn't always work that way. Matt Harvey still has above average velocity, but a guy who was an ace when he touched 100 is trash now that he "only" touches mid-90s. Or the dead-arm version of Aroldis Chapman that shows up from time to time, who still throws like 97 from the left side but he's not near the same pitcher. Loss of velocity is always a concern, even when the pitcher seems to have velo to spare.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 10:38:06 GMT -5
Quick hijack, but outside of an outstanding June and a solid May, Damaineah wasn't that far off if he was referring to this season. His WAR is only worth 1.0 on the year and he's a -3 DRS. I mean, when he's hot, he's one of the best hitters in the game, but otherwise he's Sandy Leon. It's weird. They just didn't have any internal replacement options and had bigger needs since their offense is fine. I would move on from him in the off-season. Perhaps if we want to carry this conversation on we should extract it to the JBJ thread. As far as Sale, he could very well be worth every penny of his extension, but no matter what, the Red Sox likely lost value on the deal by not waiting till the end of the year. The more he struggles the less likely it is that he makes 30 million AAV in the off-season as an over 30 pitcher. If they wait until the end of the year they're competing with 29 other teams, and are you sure no one would offer him more? I bet some team that sees a window in the next few years would give him more years, at least, and take on the downside risk on the back end of the contract. Hell, the Phillies gave Bryce Harper 13/330. They'll be paying him a bajillion a year through his age-39 season. If the season ended today? Yes.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 10:33:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox managed their staff differently in October than the Dodgers did and won the World Series because of it. Also, it kind of goes without saying that it may be easier for some players to come back from an increased workload than others. Also, too, the Dodgers pitching depth is a pretty obvious reason for their success. Ross Stripling is like their 8th best starter. ----- EDIT: Seeing some conversation above - Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA, and the league has a 4.49 ERA, and Fenway has a park effect this year of 108. I know it's convenient to call a 4.00 ERA "average" but that's not what an average pitcher is in 2019. You don't just get to decide "average" based on your personal expectations and the convenience of round numbers. Average has a definition, and Eduardo Rodriguez has been better than it. You're free to be disappointed by it--it's not up to me to tell you what your expectations are. But a 115 ERA+ is, by definition, above average. James we can agree to disagree. You're using "league average" thus comparing him to the bottom teams dreg pitching staffs. When he starts in the playoffs (if Sox make it) he is a 4.19 era. He is the worst number 1 starter of all 16 playoff teams with a 10% chance or higher probability of making the playoffs. He is nothing to write home about. If he is pitching "well" he'd be better than 4.19. A 4.19 ERA, in Fenway, in 2019, is a good ERA. Period.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2019 9:54:35 GMT -5
And Eovaldi, where in the world were you going to get a starter who has ace ability (even though he hasn't tapped it yet) with amazing stuff for four years (as opposed to 5, 6, or 7 that it takes to get an elite guy) for $17 million year (as opposed to $30 million/year)? I suppose the literal answer here is Charlie Morton.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 4, 2019 11:55:10 GMT -5
Especially since that extension hasn't technically started. He may ultimately be correct, Sale has been pretty bad this year, but this might be a year or two premature. That is... not helping me feel any better about this extension.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 3, 2019 13:45:40 GMT -5
If only this team had Greg Holland and Sam Dyson.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 3, 2019 13:20:58 GMT -5
Let's see who can come up with the dumbest post for this game. Judge has 0 home runs to LF this year. He's a fraud built by Yankee Stadium. You win.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2019 14:19:54 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2019 6:56:04 GMT -5
Funny thing is if you have a dominant Chris Sale then the Wild Card play-in game feels less like a crapshoot, but he knows that's not the case this year. But it's not just that one game crapshoot. It's also about playing meaningful, engaging, competitive games as long into the fall as possible. It should be about keeping fans involved, keeping television ratings up, it should be about pride and doing everything within your power to win games. But this ownership could care less. They know they have pinkhats and corporate clients that will fill the seats because of the landmark ballpark. They have their television deal.... But fans like us will tune out as soon as they're not within sniffing distance of the wildcard. The only chance of engagement will be if and when the kids get a chance. This is part of the reason the sport is dying. Ownership could give two craps about fans like us, who live and die with this team, but who can only afford to attend one or two games. I worry about the sport, imagine if we were Kansas City. Who's the real pink hat here?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2019 20:20:44 GMT -5
Because he has lost his mind. The funny thing is I basically agree that the Red Sox should have added another reliever, but I dunno, I can just give them a C+/B- for their trade season and move on with my life.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2019 10:42:33 GMT -5
Chris Sale is 30 and reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Price's FIP and xFIP are very close to his career averages and his K-rate is its highest ever. There's as much reason to be confident in those two next season as any team's top two. Sale is still missing velocity, and the track record of pitchers past 30 is absolutely not something you can point to as a positive. I'm worried. Price on the other hand is just having a good season with little if any apparent skills degradation, despite a few rough starts recently. Given his age and the offensive environment he's pitching in, we should be very very happy if he pitches a full season and lands in the 3.50-3.75 ERA range, which doesn't seem wildly optimistic to me.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2019 9:16:20 GMT -5
It is also driving me a little nuts that people are feeling (per Rob Bradford, apparently) down in the dumps that the Red Sox didn't make a move. They made a move! They got Cashner! That's more than the Yankees did at least. And getting Cashner has allowed Eovaldi to move to the bullpen. That might prove to be the most significant bullpen "addition" any team has made. How much less grief would the Red Sox be getting right now if they'd waited to get Cashner? People would be talking about how they won the deadline. The best relievers who moved were Greene and Dyson, who are both decent, but in terms of overall impact on the staff versus the price paid, would you rather have gotten one of those two instead of Cashner?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2019 9:13:09 GMT -5
I mean, their pitching hasn't been good. Don't know why that has to be some sort of character issue. The ascription of virtue and vice as explanations of athletic performance is such a weird thing. Like, these players are among the best several hundred people in the world at what they do. Roughly zero of them got to that point by not caring or not trying hard. Especially when it comes to the pitching. Like there no way that this group of thirty-something pitchers who all went deep in the postseason last year would be struggling now, except that they all suddenly stopped caring? Worth noting that Eduardo has probably performed the best relative to expectations, and he's the one who pitched the least in the postseason last year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 1, 2019 8:18:28 GMT -5
So, what would everyone say is more likely true of the 2019 Boston Red Sox: Lack of talent this year Uncaring/indifferent No sense of urgency in that they just expect to be there in October? I mean, their pitching hasn't been good. Don't know why that has to be some sort of character issue.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 16:09:57 GMT -5
People are really losing their minds over twenty innings of Daniel Hudson or whatever. When Colton Brewer is blowing games in late July, it does make sense that you rather see ANYONE else. Perhaps one might even overreact to such a thing.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 16:03:24 GMT -5
People are really losing their minds over twenty innings of Daniel Hudson or whatever.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:59:27 GMT -5
Remember last year when the bullpen was the Achilles heel that prevented us from winning the World Series? How can Dombrowski possibly think this team can win as it's currently constructed... To think that upgrading Brewer (who isn't even on the roster when everyone is healthy) is going to make any difference whatsoever rather than the entire team playing the way they are capable of.... I don't even know how to finish that. Well, it's not one or the other. You can upgrade on Brewer AND the rest of the team can play up to expectations. The latter half of that equation is much more important, of course.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:47:26 GMT -5
But Aaron Sanchez would have saved them... Couldn't hurt. Just for the record you would definitely be complaining even more if the Red Sox traded for a starter with a 6.07 ERA.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:44:46 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:39:23 GMT -5
Started in the AL cutting his teeth in KC. We will see how the field plays. KC is a huge park and there are about 50% more home runs now. Arizona is a hitter's park too, and the AL West isn't that scary when you get to dodge Houston. And, it's Greinke.
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