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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:30:05 GMT -5
I'm just pissed my team castrated themselves... While everyone else got better (except MFY). Hell, even the Mets think they can make the playoffs, but my team doesn't. If only the Red Sox acted more like the Mets. I'm a little surprised they didn't get at least one bullpen piece, but realistically, this team was not in a good enough position to buy hard, nor a bad enough position to sell. Also, Andrew Cashner is probably worth more to this team than any reliever they could realistically have traded for, and they're being dragged right now because they made their move early.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 15:08:08 GMT -5
Yeah, they're so clueless and I wish you were running the team instead. It's the trade everyone for whatever teams are asking for mentality that sets you above the rest. LOL certainly the Sox couldn't improve from the likes of Colton Brewer!! LOL Weren't you just saying it was Diaz or bust?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 14:49:38 GMT -5
Thank you for this valuable content.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 31, 2019 14:20:13 GMT -5
Could this not have all happened over the course of like two weeks, baseball? How hard can it be to trade Shane friggin' Greene? And don't act like you're not all just looking at the same projections anyway.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 20:21:15 GMT -5
And Chafin has pitched worse than Brewer this year by xwOBA. On the plus side he's been much better than Brewer according to any stat I actually trust.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 14:19:02 GMT -5
I just don't understand how you have such an extreme degree of confidence in a guy who isn't even currently pitching well. No one in the Sox bullpen is pitching really well the entire year besides Brandon Workman. So then Diaz isn't the only reliever on the market who makes them better.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 14:15:30 GMT -5
This will be a fun one to revisit. In what way? Who's going to be the equivalent to acquiring Diaz this deadline?I just don't understand how you have such an extreme degree of confidence in a guy who isn't even currently pitching well.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 12:55:42 GMT -5
Saved every single game he was bought in the 2018 playoffs. LOL! Because he was lucky as f*** or because he pitched great? 6.75 BB/9 8.44 K/9 5.91 ERA 6.54 FIP 6.58 xFIP I think they could have used literally any other pitcher and got better pitching. The Red Sox needed that trade because four years later they were fated to win a World Series with a closer who wasn't actually effective but would be bailed out by his defense and sheer luck at various points. It could have happened no other way. Why would anyone even debate that it could have?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 12:20:17 GMT -5
More improbable career path, Charlie Morton or Rich Hill? I feel like Morton may have overtaken Hill this year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 12:11:45 GMT -5
So basically, a bust deadline. There's no one beyond Diaz that will make a impact here. This will be a fun one to revisit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 8:40:12 GMT -5
I wouldn’t think a Chavis or Dalbec lead would get Diaz. If I was the Mets GM after giving up what he’d did I’d ask for Benni too. I’d prefer a lesser deal Chavis or Dalbec for Lugo but in a Benni for Diaz hypothetical I’d want maybe Conforto and add another lesser piece from our system. Nimmo? Here's another question on the topic of the Mets being insane: where are they even going to play Chavis?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 8:14:43 GMT -5
You can literally pick any single relief pitcher in the league and yep, trading Benintendi for them is a horrible idea. Doesn’t matter who you choose. There are zero occasions where that is acceptable Well now that we see the apparent batting adjustment(s) he's made and recent results suggesting a return to expecations, such a trade is unthinkable. A week or so ago with Benny in the low .260s and no power, we might have thought differently. Yeah, it would have been an even worse time to trade him. Also, forgetting anything about Benny, I will again remind people that one look at the Red Sox depth chart should shut down any talk of them trading away a starting OF. This has been the problem with about a million bad JBJ trade proposals, but I'm glad to see we're innovating and introducing some ridiculous Benintendi trade proposals that would have JDM/Brock Holt as a starting OF for this team.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 7:40:42 GMT -5
What I'm getting here is that we should expect a very slow trade deadline.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 30, 2019 7:28:05 GMT -5
Does that mean there isn't really a match, then? Because in no way could I see the Red Sox doing this... By "best possible match" he means "thing that will draw the most attention and require the least effort on my part". It's an exciting thing to report on and talk about! It's just that anyone who knows the first thing about baseball should be able to take one look at the Red Sox depth chart and realize this is a complete non-starter. Trading Andrew benintendi for a relief pitcher would make me throw up and then punch a hole in the wall Exactly.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 16:32:04 GMT -5
I mean, they probably would care more if the ball was moving in the other direction, but none of what you're saying at all proves or even really suggests that this was a plan MLB put in place intentionally. It just shows why they haven't had a reason to care. Sorry, but I find this sentiment to be as naive as saying that money doesn't really affect politics. Why do they even have different balls for MLB/AAA and everyone else playing baseball? And it all started very shortly after Manfred was hired. If you don't have even tiny doubts that this isn't a conspiracy, then I guess your definition of conspiracy is always "complete lie". What's naive is assuming MLB could pull this plan off without anyone finding out about it. This the problem with every conspiracy theory, you're giving the people in power way too much credit for their competence and planning ability.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 12:16:32 GMT -5
Negron traded to the Dodgers Kris Negron, major league ballplayer. No one can ever say he wasn't.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:40:34 GMT -5
It's funny that people think MLB is actually in control of this situation. If they'd actually take the necessary steps to coordinate this with Rawlings, you know those emails would have been leaked by now. The likely reality is worse: MLB isn't in control of their own equipment, they were the last to notice and/or admit the change, and they don't care very much. Yeah, total coincidence that HR have increased about 40% and not decreased 40%. Baseball also wouldn't care if offense is drastically reduced, right? They have no vested interest in whatever stupid crap that casual fans care about? I mean, they probably would care more if the ball was moving in the other direction, but none of what you're saying at all proves or even really suggests that this was a plan MLB put in place intentionally. It just shows why they haven't had a reason to care.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:24:54 GMT -5
I think Groome still has real upside, but for Diaz I’d be ok with it. I don’t generally like deals for relievers, but he fits a longer-term need and Groom has big questions and at least 3 seasons to go in all likelihood before he makes it (plus a couple of adjustment years in MLB). Sounds like Chatham is the other piece and I’m totally cool with that given Bogey’s deal, the presence of Lin and Marco, and guys like Flores, Lugo, and Bonaci further away. Diaz makes me really nervous. Trades for relievers are risky at best, but at least Kimbrel had a long track record of consistent excellence- about as a sure a thing as you’ll find. Diaz had one great year and has been replacement level this year - eg 0.4 bWAR worse than Gas Can Hembree (!) I mostly agree but Diaz is a little different because you might get a Craig Kimbrel quality reliever for a fraction of what Kimbrel cost. You get killed on relievers when you buy them at their peak value, but that's not what you'd be doing with Diaz at this point. I don't know if I'd love a Diaz trade if it eventually happened, but to get a true "buy low", you have to buy when things really do look ugly. So I at least see a little more potential for upside in that regard.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:17:37 GMT -5
Sale isn't breaking down. He's having trouble with home runs, like every other fly ball pitcher in baseball. I don't know if that's better or worse. I doubt MLB is going to reverse course on the juiced ball era. Also, he's not breaking down now. It's they supposedly tanked the earlier part of the season, specifically his starts, so that he could be stronger in August, September, and October. We'll see when we get there. His fastball still hasn't looked as lively. He can dial it up, but his average FB is down. He's averaging under 95 MPH. FA Velocities, 2017-2019It's funny that people think MLB is actually in control of this situation. If they'd actually take the necessary steps to coordinate this with Rawlings, you know those emails would have been leaked by now. The likely reality is worse: MLB isn't in control of their own equipment, they were the last to notice and/or admit the change, and they don't care very much.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:10:50 GMT -5
If you showed 3 of his nastiest pitches all year, would that sway your opinion? Not me either. That is a really ridiculous way to prove anything. Literally any start, you could pull gifs of three pitches located that poorly. And the fact that they all got crushed certainly doesn't disprove the theory that the ball is the problem, or part of the problem.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:08:44 GMT -5
Dalbec has a 25% K rate in AA. Chavis has a 31% K rate in the majors. Dalbec is two months older than Chavis. Last season, in AA, Chavis had exactly the same K rate that Dalbec has now. Chavis was a year younger, of course. Chavis is still trending down. Since May, he hasn't done anything well other than get lucky with BABIP. Even his power has disappeared. ...Which again, should be a reminder to pump the breaks on Dalbec.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 29, 2019 11:01:06 GMT -5
I've felt the same way for awhile now. I'd actually rather move him than Dalbec if it was an either/or scenario. Dalbec on base skills are superior, is a better fielder and he just torched LHP (.925 OPS with a 25/30 BB/K ratio). I mean... in AA they are. Dalbec's profile is so extreme, I still think it's an open question if he can hit at all in the majors.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 27, 2019 21:35:18 GMT -5
He’s an interesting pickup. Former highly-rated guy, who provides real insurance at multiple positions. Idk where this power streak is coming from but I like it. Curious to learn if there’s a swing change in there. He's had a few decent MLB runs that were derailed by injury if I remember correctly. Definitely not the least interesting 27 year old you could have on your AAA roster.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 27, 2019 12:41:24 GMT -5
Give me Thor and we will retake Asgaard again! Would mean Ragnarok for the farm, though...
I'd be willing to give up a lot, and if the Red Sox don't do it, I hope some other team does. It's going to be Cole all over again when some team gets him to stop throwing his stupid terrible sinker.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 26, 2019 17:56:51 GMT -5
I don't really see why the Angels are fated to be terrible forever, or even terrible in the short term really. They basically should have been a pretty good team in recent years except for a miserable (and genuinely tragic) run of pitcher attrition, which can happen for an organization from time to time but usually isn't perpetual. Either it's just bad luck or if there really is a problem with something the coaches or trainers are doing, those guys tend to get turned over pretty quickly. They have some impressive core talent, they're not strapped for cash, the farm has been much improved under their new regime... basically I think if they can get any kind of good luck at all on the pitching side next year, they're a contender. Mike Trout has been in the league for 9 years, his team made it to the postseason exactly once. They're nothing to write home about this season and I don't see how they overtake the Astros or even the Athletics any time soon with the core they have. They have an okay line-up and a bad pitching staff. While I'm sure you could make the argument for bad luck or whatever, having a player this good and not being able to build anything around him for nearly a decade is a ridiculous display of overall ineptitude. It makes me admire Mike Trout as a professional even more, I mean every time a Lebron team was in the goddamn Finals he had all of his media buddies running articles about how he needed more help until it became an actual narrative. While being better than Lebron as a teammate is a pretty low bar to clear, Trout is just impossible to dislike. I mean, that's probably why they have a whole new front office and coaching staff since nine years ago. I think the organization has been run much better under Eppler (and getting Scioscia out of there is probably a big deal too), but that's been obscured by the run of pitcher losses. This isn't to say that they're surely on the cusp of greatness or anything, but look at the Twins this year for instance. They had some good talent in house, got some new coaches in there, hit on a few signings, and here they are. I don't see why the Angels couldn't do something similar.
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