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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 19, 2019 12:15:37 GMT -5
My definition of an ace is a whale who can dive at least 140 feet underwater and hold his breath for 45+ minutes. Personally I'm looking for three plus pitches and a sideline in investigating animal-related crimes.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 19, 2019 12:08:05 GMT -5
why would we want Abreu? he's barely hit better than Chavis this year, and Moreland should be back soon. Rest of season projections per THE BAT: Abreu: .291/.345/.532 Moreland: .256/.334/.495 Chavis: .241/.306/.457 Abrue and Moreland are a natural platoon, JDM might need some extra days off or a IL stint at some point, and Chavis is hitting .251/.319/.436 with a sweet 34.4% strikeout rate since the start of May. He isn't exactly the thing this team needs, but Abreu is likely to come fairly cheap and does make the team better at a time when the value of each win is hyper-inflated. I'm guessing I'd be pretty happy with the deal if it went down.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2019 12:37:54 GMT -5
The team's home record is already reflected in their overall record, and to the extent that a worse than expected home record is predictive of anything, it points to future positive regression. Let me put it another way, if the team had the same overall record, but their home/road win/loss record was more in line with the standard home field advantage you expect to see for a team that plays in Fenway, would you feel any differently about their chances? No, due to the overall mess of a season with all parts having significant issues. But playing poorly at home to me reduces the chance they will right the ship significantly in the rest of the season.Again, unless there's some identifiable reason that they've been unexpectedly poor at home, I'm going to assume that they still have the same home field advantage that they always have.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2019 11:24:01 GMT -5
This is the worst way to double-count losses. Who is double counting losses? I am saying exactly what our record is, and how poorly (which is really mystifying) that the team is playing at home. I am calling it like I see it - as always. What's the double count you refer to? The team's home record is already reflected in their overall record, and to the extent that a worse than expected home record is predictive of anything, it points to future positive regression. Let me put it another way, if the team had the same overall record, but their home/road win/loss record was more in line with the standard home field advantage you expect to see for a team that plays in Fenway, would you feel any differently about their chances?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 16, 2019 22:42:50 GMT -5
Cora - grumpy today - "we need to get better soon". When is soon? Once again I say that this team is exactly its record. 7 games over .500. Below .500 at home.Another thing I've heard recently is that this year's Red Sox are the "summer Celtics". I am moving toward being a seller as well. This is the worst way to double-count losses.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 16, 2019 22:37:45 GMT -5
Still, a lot of his success this year is based on an improved home run rate, which is the last thing I expect to hold up in this offensive environment. Huh.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 16, 2019 13:20:20 GMT -5
Don't put it on the team that you feel bad after a win. You ruined it for yourself. Other than, "a win is a win", how could you possibly feel good about this win? They're 25th in runs scored, the Red Sox had a 5-0 and then a 10-4 lead and barely held on to win finishing 10-8. Rick Porcello and the bullpen continue to anchor this team from taking off. They're winning purely on an incredibly talented lineup. Toronto should have never been in this game. I feel pretty good about them scoring ten runs.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2019 10:58:49 GMT -5
Looks like he started decreasing his slider usage in favor of his change up early in the season with pretty good results so far. First 4 starts: 21.5% SL, 18.2% CH Last 13: 9% SL, 27.8% CH (ERA- of 75 and FIP- of 77 in that span) He's done a good job of limiting walks (5.8%) in that stretch. If they make the postseason and he's on the roster.. Having a guy in the pen who can keep the ball on the ground could be useful too. I'm seeing a lot of chatter about Cashner being lucky this year and you know what? It's probably true to a degree. But it's important to note he's been definitively better than previous years with the increased usage of his CH and decreased usage of his FB. His 49.2% GB% is his best since 2013, his 28.1% O-Swing% is his best since 2015, his 66.8% O-Contact% is his best since 2012, and his 87.0% Z-Contact% is his best since 2013. Remember, Cashner was kind of a dude back with the Padres in that era. Not saying he is that dude currently, but this is a pretty shrewd pickup for a 5th starter without mortgaging the farm and hopefully staying under the highest luxury tax threshold. He's completely scrapped his sinker this year, which he'd been throwing as his primary pitch for a while. I've never been a Cashner fan but there's enough here to think that maybe he's more than just pure innings filler. Still, a lot of his success this year is based on an improved home run rate, which is the last thing I expect to hold up in this offensive environment. THE BAT, which is the projection system that's really reacting to the increased home run rate this year, has him for a 5.49 ERA the rest of the way.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2019 10:41:31 GMT -5
I mean... you worried he's about to run out of money or something? Ask for more! He has a thousand other business ventures (including another globally popular sports team that’s costs him hundreds of millions) and the Red Sox are not a non profit. He has sunk more money into this team than the Yankees have their own. By a lot. Now could you imagine saying what you’re saying a decade and a half ago if the Sox were spending more than the yankees? Probably not. It’s very selfish and entitled to ask for him to spend more Throwing money at problems does not fix them. If it did the Red Sox would not have any issues. This Cashner deal represents the best of every world- it’s an upgrade over what they have, it’s not costing them a ton of money and penalizing the franchise in luxury tax penalties, and it didn’t cost a whole lot in prospect capital Laughable. Moving on.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2019 10:39:00 GMT -5
I have read that some pitchers are having real issues with the smoothness of the ball. I can only hope that's Sale's issue and its affecting his slider and location on the FB and he'll find a way to adjust (suntan lotion mixed with a little pine tar on the forearm that he can use to give him a touch between pitches to get a bit of tackiness or some version of this may get that done). Still, am I overreacting to think that their extension of him - which I still don't understand given how he finished last year and the injury concern with the shoulder, which are so different (repair-wise) than elbows - is already starting to look like the Josh Beckett extension? They need to move him now while he still might be perceived as having some value. He's always had fatigue issues coupled with relatively minor injuries. That does not bode well going forward. You can't sell him now. Actively trying to trade Sale at this point would be an admission that they think he's broken.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 14, 2019 8:31:22 GMT -5
That's true for basically every team ever. Kind of speaks to the stupidity of trying to throw money at all your roster problems then, no? We could’ve easily gone out and signed a reliever this offseason- I remember us being linked to Robertson, for instance. They’d be paying luxury tax penalties for a shitty reliever right now if they went that route. As a matter of fact most of their options ended up being terrible. It’s a lot more complex than John Henry not spending money on the team like some (erroneously) want to cry about. He spends all I could possibly ask him to spend. They just haven’t spent it right. Henry is not the issue. And this coming from a guy who doesn’t really like him all that much I mean... you worried he's about to run out of money or something? Ask for more!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 10, 2019 13:08:53 GMT -5
Honestly, none. There's no prospect in the system that I would be crushed over if they got adequate value in return. The guys I'd hate to see get traded away are Casas and Groome. Maybe Mata because I desperately want this team to develop a starting pitcher. Casas because they just drafted him and he looks good. Groome because he's never really flashed his potential and been, and is, hurt. Mata because he's young with stuff. Again, none of these guys are untouchable. If there's one thing that we can learn from Dombrowski, it's that if you're going to trade prospects, do it when they're at the peak of their value. Obviously you can't predict that perfectly, but Casas and (especially) Groome seem like safe bets to be worth more a year from now than they are today. Mata, on the other hand...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 10, 2019 12:09:15 GMT -5
I was thinking about this the other day: When repeating the AA level, Dalbec has cut his K% by more than 10% while maintaining his power numbers ( .251 IsoP in 2019 vs .252 in 18) and more than tripling his Walk rate. That's drastic improvement with enough of a sample size to believe in. There's a lot of players with Dalbec's profile that did improve their contact numbers while playing in the majors: Bryant and Springer come to mind and also A's Matt Chapman in AA at age 23 put a very similar core numbers to Dalbec's with a 11.7 BB%, 29.2% K% and .271 IsoP. I honestly would trade Chavis (and the FO should sell high on him before he crushes) before entertaining the idea of trading Dalbec and I was very skeptical about his profile a year ago. I feel like Dalbec has the hitting profile to be like a Pete Alonso-lite. And we all see what that guy's done with the juiced balls, I can't wait to see what Dalbec does as well. I think trading him away has a pretty good chance to come back to haunt us given the big improvements he's shown. I'd agree on considering selling high on Chavis, even though I do think he'll hit enough homers to be at least a pretty useful player if he can stick at second base. But he has a lot he needs to improve on, especially contact rate. Dalbec is pretty similar to Chavis. Pete Alonso is three months younger than Dalbec, has a better K rate than Dalbec, is probably going to be the NL ROY, and does not belong in this conversation at all.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:51:58 GMT -5
The spread of Galaxy Brain syndrome among baseball fans has officially accelerated to a full on pandemic. Team around .500 after two months? Trade away the best pitcher in the game! It's the only smart move! I was kidding. I know, but the only reason there's a joke to be made there is that people have been discussing a Scherzer trade all season.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:42:48 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're trying to say. That the Indians are holding onto a WC spot and have a decent grasp on it. They’re going to be cool selling off their current ace? It’s a move that they are/should be considering? The Red Sox are 2 out entirely and it’s crazy to fathom trading away any one who they are at risk of losing between this year and next? Dude, I'm not Alex Trabek over here, can you just give your statement in the form of a statement? Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic proffered that the Indians might make a deal similar to the Chris Archer for Glasgow/ Meadows deal from last year. Trade for cheaper assets who can help this year and build for the future. The example he used was for the Yankees to trade Frasier/ German for Bauer. He thinks Bauer would thrive in New York. Classic sportswriter's trade. Bauer is a name, but it's debatable if he's even better than German at this point, and he certainly has less value once service time comes into the equation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:33:11 GMT -5
The way this season is going, the Yankees will probably get Scherzer. No way Scherzer gets traded. Nationals are back in playoff position. The spread of Galaxy Brain syndrome among baseball fans has officially accelerated to a full on pandemic. Team around .500 after two months? Trade away the best pitcher in the game! It's the only smart move!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 9, 2019 9:19:38 GMT -5
So, it's nuts to say the Red Sox being 2 out of the playoffs entirely should sell, but the Indians who are holding the 2nd Wild Card Berth by 1.5 over Oakland and are 0.5 behind TB for WC1 are going to sell one of their best starting pitchers? I have no idea what you're trying to say.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 8, 2019 20:53:03 GMT -5
just like I don't blame Machado for ending Pedrioa's career. Nope. So you credit him with ending Pedroia's career but you don't blame him for it?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 8, 2019 11:44:23 GMT -5
One of the best parts of watching a game at the park is paying attention to things that are off the ball, the things you can't see on TV. For example, if I was at a game with a little leaguer who played shortstop, I might tell him to focus on what Francisco Lindor does in between pitches, how he positions himself. Which is to say, "pay attention" is both paternalistic and judgmental but also a fundamentally wrong approach to the live game experience. Also, it's funny to have "text your choice for player of the game to 87878787" and then blame the fans for being on their phones. If you're building an interactive experience then you can't blame people for participating in it. To your first point, certain people have always done this so if there’s an increase in injuries it has nothing to do with this. I don’t know if there truly is an increase, seems like it but I don’t know the data. People do seem to be more distracted by cell phones and social media and fantasy sports and these interactive online things like you mentioned. That’s just the world today, it’s not going to change. People can complain and say “pay attention”, but the second part of that is “to what I want you to” vs what they are paying attention to. Nets should be foul pole to foul pole now a days. The net isn’t a distraction for more than an inning at most. I mean, "pay attention" is such a miserably bad argument that I have a hard time seeing these people as simple-minded reactionaries who just oppose any change in general.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 11:27:59 GMT -5
I mean... NO ONE would have thought that after a career year, a player would gravitate back towards his previously established level? There's a reason every projection system was shaving like three wins off of last year. And yeah, he's even a little bit below that level, but again, all it takes is a couple hot weeks and he's right where he was projected to be. Betts is at 2.6 fWAR, which extrapolates to 4.8 for a full season. That would tie his rookie season, which was the worst of his career. Every comment I've seen has very sensibly said that even this version of Betts is still obviously a great player, but it's fair to say he's come in toward the lower end of what could have been reasonably expected at the outset of the season - I personally was hoping for about a 7-WAR season - and it's fair to be a little disappointed, in a still-grateful-because-Mookie-is-awesome way, by that. Yeah, but I don't expect his current pace of production to continue based on the skills. THE BAT has him projected at .298/.386/.543 the rest of the way, which would push him up towards a six win season and probably make him a top ten player in baseball by the season's end. Kinda funny how this time last year I was trying to convince people that Betts wasn't actually as good as Mike Trout.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 9:01:10 GMT -5
No real news here, but I was just noticing... Shohei Ohtani has played 165 games (575 PAs) as a hitter, and his line stands at .294/.361/.566. Much of that he compiled with a busted UCL. As a pitcher you'll recall him hitting 100 and throwing two wipeout secondary pitches.
There's like a real argument that this guy is the most talented baseball player ever to walk the earth, and we've basically completely forgotten about him. Which makes him the second player on the Angels to fit that description.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 8:44:53 GMT -5
I wouldn't call his season disappointing in a vacuum, he's playing very well. But given his pending free agency and what we can roughly assume his asking price will be I'd prefer if he put up numbers that made retaining him more of a no-brainer. its not disappointing in the sense that has fallen off a cliff, but this isn't the year the anyone would have expected coming off of last year. He (and JD) were the major reasons they won the world series. That is fine to me, he is a baseball player, it is a tough job. i just think it isn't uinfair to say it has been disappointing (understanding the bar was set so high), and that was the gist of patford's statement. if this is norm, I am happy to have him on our side. I mean... NO ONE would have thought that after a career year, a player would gravitate back towards his previously established level? There's a reason every projection system was shaving like three wins off of last year. And yeah, he's even a little bit below that level, but again, all it takes is a couple hot weeks and he's right where he was projected to be.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2019 8:38:49 GMT -5
Telson- 1) The Rays are the exact kind of desperate team that would pull off a Betts trade. They'd flip him as soon as next off-season started and recoup some of the value lost in the deadline trade. They've never won a world series, and they are desperate to get one. Never underestimate a team's desperation to win, a la Chapman trade with the Cubs. This is a very bad read on the Rays organization. They are hyper-focused on maximizing years of control. Alright, moving on from this topic.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 15:14:09 GMT -5
Follow up question:
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 15:01:25 GMT -5
Yeah, Betts doesn't have great natural power, so for him to have a season like he did last year, he has to keep his batted ball profile really tightly optimized. Again I think this is where some of the Statcast stuff has us screwed up, because we saw that extreme optimization happen last year, and we could quantify it, and by doing so justifying it as being "real". This is why Devers is going to be a better hitter. What is concerning to me about Mookie is how badly his base running and defense have regressed. Hopefully it's just a bad year. As to Devers... maybe. But Mookie's power isn't THAT much worse than Devers, and his contact skills are far better. Contact is one of those skills that tends to only get worse as a player ages, which along with his overall superior athleticism, tends to predict a longer career for Betts. To the baseunning and defense, I'm not sure what you're looking at, but I don't see a huge difference. The speed is falling off a little bit, but right in line with what you'd expect from a normal aging curve. Per Statcast, he's been the 26th fastest player of his age for the last three years running. Again, you want to worry about someone, worry about Benny. He's showing some of the worst exit velos of his career in a year when everyone's exit velos are up because of the ball. His speed also also fallen off more noticeably, and his contact has been much worse than career norms. He's the guy I'm seeing genuine red flags on.
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