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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 14:42:28 GMT -5
As we grow closer and closer to the Trade Deadline - and with the Sox having definite needs - which prospects do you think are the Sox 1 to 3 "untouchables," and who are your personal top 3? This is all stated with the caveat that 1) no one is truly untouchable if a very good or elite MLB player with more than a few months of control becomes available; 2) Dave Dombrowski will deal almost anyone if the "right" deal presents itself. My guess is the Sox Front Office Untouchables are: Dalbec Mata Casas My personal Untouchables: Dalbec Casas Duran Honestly for me it's just Casas. The Dombrowski move would be to flip Mata for a mature MLB pitcher who seems to be entering his peak, and while it obviously depends on the return, I wouldn't hate that. Duran is maybe in a second tier of like... less touchable? It's not so much that I'm in love with him as a prospect, it's the lack of OF depth that makes him more important to the organization. I'd want to get a return substantially better than his generic market value if he were moved.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 14:28:27 GMT -5
I talked to one college coach I know who said Betts is letting the ball travel deeper into the zone than last year, resulting in many fewer pulled balls, and, ultimately, fewer HRs. FWIW Yeah, Betts doesn't have great natural power, so for him to have a season like he did last year, he has to keep his batted ball profile really tightly optimized. Again I think this is where some of the Statcast stuff has us screwed up, because we saw that extreme optimization happen last year, and we could quantify it, and by doing so justifying it as being "real".
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 14:14:51 GMT -5
Walking more than he strikes out and everyone's talking about what a disappointing season he's having. It's such a mystery that Betts wants to test free agency... He wants to test free agency because he thinks he's worth a certain value, and he has said this. There's no spinning it, he wants to test free agency because he wants to get paid, not because Boston fans are critical of him.Yeah well suffice to say I don't take those kinds of player comments at face value, ever.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 14:04:33 GMT -5
Betts, 2019: .262/.386/.452, 16.4 BB%, 14.7 K%, .384 xwOBA Betts, Career: .298/.372/.511, 10.2 BB%, 12.7 K%, .368 xwOBA Yeah, a little more power regression than you'd expect given the lively ball this year, but one little weekend homer flurry would put that right back in line with (reasonable) expectations. Walking more than he strikes out and everyone's talking about what a disappointing season he's having. It's such a mystery that Betts wants to test free agency... Maybe some people think he is having a disappointing season because they are comparing this season with last season. All your doing here is comparing this year with his career numbers, which will be more standardized. Everyone loves Mookie, but it isn't unfair to characterize this year as disappointing, vis a vis last year. And while last year was a career year, this is shaping up more like his 2017 year, which was just wasn't as good, plain and simple. He also isn't stealing as much as in the past. i mean, do you think this year is disappointing ? Not really, no. I don't see any real skills degradation, unless you really thought he was a true-talent .300 ISO guy after last year. Which, stories about the work he did with JDM and statcast numbers that may or may not have any predictive value aside, I don't think was ever a good assumption.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 5, 2019 10:54:37 GMT -5
Nice win but when is Betts going to wake up from his bad dream. It's been a really long time since he's been himself. Have there been any theories as to what is going on with him ? It just does not seem possible he's not snapped out of the funk which dates back to last year's post season. Betts, 2019: .262/.386/.452, 16.4 BB%, 14.7 K%, .384 xwOBA Betts, Career: .298/.372/.511, 10.2 BB%, 12.7 K%, .368 xwOBA Yeah, a little more power regression than you'd expect given the lively ball this year, but one little weekend homer flurry would put that right back in line with (reasonable) expectations. Walking more than he strikes out and everyone's talking about what a disappointing season he's having. It's such a mystery that Betts wants to test free agency...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 22:36:12 GMT -5
About to be .500 vs the blue jays. Anyone who thinks this team is a playoff contender is kidding themselves. You can't predict baseball.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 18:26:55 GMT -5
Why is Benintendi sitting yet again? I don't know but I'm definitely more worried about him than I am Betts. He's even lost a bunch of sprint speed since last year which makes me think there's something physically wrong.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 15:27:47 GMT -5
I feel like it actually goes the other way, like it takes a truly spoiled fanbase to want to blow up the team any time it's odds of winning the World Series drop into the single digits. It's funny because if this team had Wander Franco or Vlad Jr in its system, I guarantee this board would freak out if they traded them this off-season for 1 year of Mookie Betts. Yeah well they would be right to, which is why those trades aren't happening.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 15:15:30 GMT -5
I feel like it actually goes the other way, like it takes a truly spoiled fanbase to want to blow up the team any time it's odds of winning the World Series drop into the single digits. I mean, when you take Fangraphs as gospel and always take their odds over everything, you can say this. However, this team has had and should have huge expectations and has fallen short of them. It's not like the Fanbase wanted to blow things up in 2016 when the club had a rising Devers, and Benintendi, Mookie, Xander, and Price locked up and under team control for years at a time. What else am I supposed to look at?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 14:58:54 GMT -5
D. They're not winning the World Series this year. I'm very comfortable saying that. Boy thank God they won it last season or I can't imagine the kind of hot takes that would drown every gameday thread. I feel like it actually goes the other way, like it takes a truly spoiled fanbase to want to blow up the team any time it's odds of winning the World Series drop into the single digits.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 14:55:24 GMT -5
Is it possible that we can leave all of this trade Mookie and dismantle the team garbage in one thread that I never have to open instead of having it spill into every thread while making me never want to visit this site? Here's the thing, even if trading Betts were a good idea, this team is run by Dave Dombrowski. Dombrowski has been around for a few decades now, he's got a pretty clear philosophy on team building, and that philosophy is absolutely not "trade away your best player to restock the farm system".
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:54:06 GMT -5
I actually won my fantasy league and playoffs last year. Taking a year off (got last the year before, and best record for regular season before that). I don't think you need to be a fantasy baseball fan to see that losing Betts for nothing is a catastrophe of resources if you can't re-sign him.
This team has a legit shot to win the World Series this year and next, and you want to trade the best player on the roster for prospects. Insanity.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:43:53 GMT -5
There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name. Nolan Arenado has an opt out in 2 years and is 28. Perhaps you trade and move Devers to 1B. Just did a quick search for a name. Not a terrible amount of thought went into this. My original comment isn't you trade Mookie directly for the future replacement. If you could get, say, a package surrounded around Wander Franco or Fernando Tatis Jr., or Forrest Whitley you could then flip them in the off-season and perhaps keep a kid or 2 in the process. This is a conversation for the trade proposal subforum but none of these trades are remotely going to happen.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:36:58 GMT -5
Don't see the correlation. This was something we were predicting in the preseason. Ian and I discussed it extensively on the podcast. Neither of those is a panic move (unlike Eovaldi closing, which looks to absolutely be a panic move). Oh, I was of the belief that this was possible, even likely, too. But the issues are 1) it’s a product of failed production at the MLB level and 2) failed development at the minor league level. I’m hopeful these are temporary moves, but there’s a good chance they’re not, and the inability to develop starting pitching is also haunting the organization right now. Eovaldi to close is, I think, tied together with this. I advocated pretty strongly for patience with this bullpen, but they’ve imploded badly after holding their own for a half-season. That it’s having sunk-cost and player development fallout is a very unfortunate development. I'm not sure if this is exactly what you're getting at, but I actually think the Red Sox should be much more aggressive about moving their starter prospects to the bullpen. The Red Sox are just not good at developing starters, which I think is more about the pitching hostel environment of Fenway and the AL East than anything given how long it's been the case. And, now that swingmen and multi-inning relievers are coming back, the bullpen represents more of an on-ramp to starting than the dead end it was a few years ago.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:09:09 GMT -5
Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. Go. Play. Dynasty.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 8:49:40 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already. Need new toys, we're bored with the old ones. Do people who want to trade Betts play fantasy baseball? Do they realize that they should be playing fantasy baseball?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 8:20:08 GMT -5
I think Porcello has value, but I really disagree with this sentiment that trading Mookie, JDM, ect makes them significantly worse in 2020. For this season, neither guy is giving you what you're hoping for. With that said, you are getting something back. It's not like you're getting nothing or just a bunch of DSL/A ball kids. You're likely getting a collection of high end prospects that are close from teams that are desperate to buy in a sellers market. Even if you want to be more competitive than relying on blue chip products, you can flip them in the off-season when the cost of a star will be depreciated. This is also assuming JDM doesn't opt out and sign elsewhere. You might lose him anyways. If you think you have no shot at signing Betts and you think that the prospect you get has a chance to be anywhere near as productive as Betts is likely to be in 2020 and Betts is likely to be more productive next year than he is this year, then you can make a deal without ruining 2020. I'm dubious on that happening, though. There is no realistic Betts trade that doesn't make the team significantly worse in 2020. Period. Who the hell are you going to get who even remotely projects to replace him? That's not a rhetorical question, I want a name.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2019 19:36:01 GMT -5
Vaz development at the plate is mind boggling, really. 100 points of BABIP and a lively ball will do wonders for a guy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2019 14:29:38 GMT -5
They should try to move Sale. His contract is an albatross. Even if the return wasn't much just getting rid of his contract would be a plus. *blank stare* Root root root for the home team payroll efficiency.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2019 11:36:59 GMT -5
I can see why people are upset about Devers, but I tend to think the ASG selections should be based on more than the first few months of the current season, so I at least understand why he's not there. There's been so many crazy out of nowhere offensive performances in baseball this year, I can kind of forgive the world for not keying in on Devers's outstanding exit velos or whatever when Tommy LaStella is putting up essentially the same numbers. Bogaerts on the other hand I don't understand at all. Well-liked player on a big name franchise, long track record, and he's been a top five player in baseball this season. I don't see any possible way to justify his exclusion. Vazquez and Bogaerts leads the AL in fWAR for their positions. Players with more fWAR than Bogaerts this season: Bellinger Trout Yelich
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2019 10:51:43 GMT -5
The good news is that Washington is climbing into the NL Wild Card fray meaning they're less likely to deal away Scherzer. Just means they'll get Stroman. Scherzer is the better pitcher, but age and contract make him less valuable, I think. I could also see the Mets being the Mets and dealing Wheeler below value and him going to NY and posting numbers more reflective to what he should be, if not better. Sure he's the best pitcher in the game, but really you'd rather have the cost controlled mediocrity...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2019 10:48:33 GMT -5
Small buyers, or I could possibly get on board with a larger acquisition if it's someone who would help in 2020 and beyond (aka Boyd).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 2, 2019 8:40:55 GMT -5
When Eovaldi signed let’s not forget Kimbrels rumored price tag was $100M. Let's also not forget that you could've gotten Ottavio and Britton for what Eovaldi was paid. This is an absurd panic move, IMHO. It's also a waste of a starter who can give you six or seven inning every 5 days. And we've seen what yo-yoing between starting and relieving can do to some of these guys. Which, by the way, might do more good for the bullpen than anything.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 1, 2019 16:53:56 GMT -5
I get they all make a lot of money, but the fact every team has operated to stay below the tax has made it a soft cap. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a general understanding amongst owners not to abuse this system. 80-grade understatment. If John Henry is cheap, who is not cheap in baseball? And this we call "teetering on the brink of an epiphany".
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 30, 2019 21:40:50 GMT -5
Everyone on this board must be like eight years old because otherwise you'd all remember a bunch of high-80s win teams that ended up with WS rings. I really don't understand how people can possibly justify statements like this. Playoffs were different. winning a WC spot isn’t really getting into the playoffs anymore. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2014.shtml
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