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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 25, 2019 9:01:29 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 24, 2019 15:43:56 GMT -5
Next thing I would love to see drop is his IFFB rate (13.6%} Combined with his lack of speed, might help explain the .239 babip. He also has a preposterous 41,4 hr/fb %. I’m excited about him, but definitely some interesting stuff going on in his batted ball data. Jesus. International League using the juicy ball is making it really hard to evaluate dudes there. The PCL is pretty much a real life Breaking Madden experiment at this point.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 23, 2019 19:28:37 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 23, 2019 18:17:51 GMT -5
I'll got out on a very short and strong limb. Devers is the best hitter in baseball. That's how good he is. Is this some sort of a gaslighting? What is going on with the Devers takes around here?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 23, 2019 17:47:45 GMT -5
I'm not convinced that Vlad Jr. will end up as a better hitter than Devers. But that's because I'm not convinced that anyone will end up a better hitter than Devers. Ronald Acuña Jr. Y’all ever heard of Mike Trout?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 23, 2019 10:58:45 GMT -5
Yes, exactly. Just, like... Gorkys Hernandez and Bryce Brentz are basically near replacement level, but they need a replacement level help there more than Colten Brewer as the #8 right-hander out of the pen. And that's no disrespect to Brewer, whose stuff is interesting. I'm not saying to give up on him. But, he hasn't been effective and he has options, the a key part in the value of guys like that is to slide them up and down in their option years to maximize roster flexibility. It’s really amazing how the Red Sox have constructed the back end of their roster to contain almost none of the things they actually need. No OF depth to cover a struggling JBJ, and imagine they mess they’d be in if Chavis hadn’t bailed them out at 2b. But at least there’s no shortage of terrible bullpen re-treads, or, you know, Eduardo Nunez.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 19:16:04 GMT -5
In his retirement press conference, Koji said his 100 wins, 100 holds and 100 saves (don't know if that was both leagues combined or just Japan) only meant he was mediocre at everything. I think he was being very humble and everyone on this board would disagree with that assessment. From ages 35-40, Uehara roasted major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA and a 9.56 K/BB ratio. He was pretty good at something.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:12:07 GMT -5
I know that bunting isn't an auto-hit, but it's probably not that hard to get 2 hits out of 10 when there is no one within 40 feet of 3B. But it's two hits and then they realign the defense and you're still a crap hitter. It's a bandaid on a shotgun wound.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:06:58 GMT -5
There's an element of luck to both, but hitter BABIP is much more skills-driven than pitcher BABIP. Yes, but he told everyone that Hembree was a brand new pitcher because of a "brand new slider."Thank goodness you've never made a prediction that anyone could call you out on retrospectively. And again, not even relevant when we're talking about a hitter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:02:36 GMT -5
No, it's not.
For hitters it's largely a function of how hard you hit the ball. He's been slightly unlucky on balls in play, so there is no significant regression expected here. The only unknown going forward is the percentage of time he can keep his mechanics in synch versus out of whack.
Sure there isn't. Heath Hembree was a brand new pitcher last year and not because of luck too. That's what you told everyone last year. There's an element of luck to both, but hitter BABIP is much more skills-driven than pitcher BABIP.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 16:00:04 GMT -5
The best explanation I've heard on why guys don't bunt against the shift more is that, at best, you can force the third baseman to respect the bunt, but most of the benefit of the shift comes from how the middle infielders are positioned. Basically, moving one infielder back to a more standard position isn't worth all the bunting you have to do to make it happen. Well, there is really no valid reason for someone hitting in the low .100s to not be bunting for hits whenever given the opportunity. I'm sure he could raise his batting average that way. Bunting isn't an auto-hit, even with the shift on. And as I explained, even if he did start doing it effectively, they'd just change up the defense a little bit and basically shut it down. At that point I guess he'd have a slightly more favorable defensive alignment, but that's not nearly enough to turn him into even a decent hitter given how bad he is at the moment. He just needs to hit much better, period. Bunting doesn't figure into that equation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 13:34:05 GMT -5
xwOBA Jackie Bradley Jr. doesn't adjust for shifting and that's by far the biggest problem with it him. . Fixed that. One of the most frustrating things about Bradley (and the shift discussion in general) is when dudes who just aren't hitting well won't bunt or otherwise change their approach to beat it. Like, I don't want David Ortiz changing his approach to beat the shift, because ground outs to short right field are an perfectly acceptable tradeoff for home runs. If a player hits hitting .160 keeps hitting the ball in the same zones, he deserves it. The best explanation I've heard on why guys don't bunt against the shift more is that, at best, you can force the third baseman to respect the bunt, but most of the benefit of the shift comes from how the middle infielders are positioned. Basically, moving one infielder back to a more standard position isn't worth all the bunting you have to do to make it happen.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 22, 2019 13:03:07 GMT -5
Moncada had already reached the majors when he was Duran's age. Duran is only 16 months younger than Moncada. And Moncada's strikeout problems clearly impact his production. You can't take player A being able to overcome a weakness and apply that it shouldn't be considered a weakness compared to Player B - especially when the two players aren't similar. That's getting into "we shouldn't worry about Henry Owens' command because Nolan Ryan" territory. Moncada also hitting .227/.289/.413 with a 36.1% K rate in the month of May.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 21, 2019 18:56:37 GMT -5
It's not the numbers it's the game. Yes Tony Gwynn hit the ball all over the place but I don't recall the line drive % being like that. JBJ and Duran are not at all similar. Like I said I don't recall anybody that consistently hits line drive in front of the outfielders. I haven't looked at Bellinger's game yet though. When asked what he changed he said " I stopped trying to hit the hell out of the ball". I know he has an all fields approach but that might be the limit of similarities. I think Duran's hit tool is highly underrated. Uhh... you’re talking about CODY Bellinger?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 21, 2019 18:44:58 GMT -5
This surprised me from that article: "Based on that metric, Bradley has been much better in May (his .326 xwOBA is just above the league average of .322) than he was in April (.249)." He hadn't looked that much better to me so far in May. But it's a good sign. JBJ has been stubbornly underperforming his xwOBAs for a while now, though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 21, 2019 18:43:11 GMT -5
Aaron Small. Yankees just get these guys all the time somehow. Makes me puke. 2005 the Yankees pull 10-0 Aaron Small out of a hat and the Red Sox are trotting 5 to 6 ERA David Wells, Curt Schilling and Wade Miller to the mound for 350 innnigs. German is not remotely similar to Small. He’s a prospect they traded for and developed, not some journeyman having an inexplicable run at 33.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 20, 2019 13:04:26 GMT -5
I would like to know how many times JBJ has hit the ball in the air this year? I see him constantly grounding out to 2nd or first or strikeout and that is just about all. all that work on his new batting stance or using his hands different has not paid off at all. Time to get him out and work with him. hate to taske him out and lose the defense, but he is a black hole in bottom of the order. 59.0 GB%, 27.7 FB% (That's bad)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 19, 2019 21:44:07 GMT -5
I just took a minute to go over the 2013 Red Sox b-ref page and man... that was a weirder team than you probably remember.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 19, 2019 18:39:42 GMT -5
Lol, I was just looking at Barnes’s stats, and 1) his walk rate is excellent at 1.9/9, which is all the more impressive since he’s pitching backwards off the CB, and 2) his xFIP is 0.80, and somehow it almost seems like he hasn’t peaked yet. I had high hopes for him as a starter, but to see him turn into such a relief weapon is almost as satisfying, especially remembering the struggles. This jumped out at me - K-BB%: 2015: 12.1% 2016: 13.9 2017: 19.2 2018: 24.5 2019: 43.5Relievers who've had a season with a K-BB% over 40%: Kimbrel (twice), Capps, Chapman, and Millar. Josh Hader is on pace to do it this year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 19, 2019 12:36:31 GMT -5
I hope he proves me wrong today. But why in the world do we keep running Nunez out there as a DH? He should be a spare part at best these days. To be fair, DH is his best position.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 19, 2019 9:36:44 GMT -5
Chavis leading off. Vazquez in the 5 hole. Very strange lineup. "Strange" is one way to put it. Your DH today is hitting .181/.200/.250, which he's earned every bit of per Statcast, and he has a 2.6% walk rate. He's also a miserable defender who was below replacement last year and is on pace to be something like a negative five win player this year. I don't write about this a lot because it's not that fun to me to just relentlessly crush a guy, but Eduardo Nunez is just the absolute worst. I cannot remember the Red Sox using a roster spot on a more useless player.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 10, 2019 7:15:18 GMT -5
Teetering on the brink of an epiphany... Regardless, 0% to 46.4% is more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning no matter how clever you get in being condescending. And what's the significance of that?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 19:24:02 GMT -5
Oh yeah I mean in terms of the emotional experience of a fan, stuff like that is what makes baseball worth watching, I just don't think it particularly means anything beyond that. And, I don't think it NEEDS to mean anything more than that, because ultimately the emotional experience of fans is the bedrock of this whole enterprise. That catch brought the probability of winning the game from 0% if he didn't make it to 46.4%. It does mean a lot more than a 2 run HR in the 4th inning because they had 0 opportunity to win that game without the catch unlike any possible event that happened in the 4th inning. If the timing of different plays didn't matter, bullpen order wouldn't matter.Teetering on the brink of an epiphany...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 12:22:03 GMT -5
As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win. Well you must be a lot of fun at parties.* For one thing, that catch created a much bigger swing in win expectancy than, say, a 2-run homer in the 4th inning, which is without even considering the difficulty of the play, which WE/WPA don't measure. But the gist of the comment is that from the perspective of the emotional experience of a fan, the catch, followed by Benintendi's homer and the victory, felt like more than just a win because it was the swing between a terrible loss (squandering the Sale start, blowing it in extra innings) and a thrilling victory. And I'm not a big believer in the idea that players' feelings and moods matter all that much for team success, but for whatever it's worth, they must be feeling pretty good about it too. At the end of the day, we shouldn't make the measure the target; the stats are there to add depth to the experience of watching the game, not vice versa. (*you actually seem like you'd be pretty fun to chat with at a party) Oh yeah I mean in terms of the emotional experience of a fan, stuff like that is what makes baseball worth watching, I just don't think it particularly means anything beyond that. And, I don't think it NEEDS to mean anything more than that, because ultimately the emotional experience of fans is the bedrock of this whole enterprise.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 10:27:46 GMT -5
That play by JBJ was basically a 2 game swing in the standings. Go from demoralizing walk off loss, to an uplifting win that could be a spring board going forward, and a 500 record isntead of losing a series to the lowly birds and 2 games below 500. Yeah, how do you even measure the WPA on that? Not only did it save the game, it turned what would have been one of the most dismaying losses of the season into hands-down the sweetest victory. As long as I'm being a bummer, the spectacular nature of that play doesn't actually make it any more valuable than just scoring a couple runs in the fourth inning or whatever. One of them is obviously a much more memorable way to win the game, but a win is a win is a win.
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