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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2019 22:37:47 GMT -5
I just spent about 15 seconds trying to pronounce that. Time for another drink. It’s pronounced “small sample performances in the playoffs are still just small sample performances”.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2019 22:30:23 GMT -5
More like EovaLOLdi.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2019 9:50:33 GMT -5
I'd actually say the opposite, fastball velo is one of the few things you can't just write off to small sample size. I know he hasn't had time to fully ramp up this spring, but... missing four-five tics off your fastball is always concerning. Guys don't ramp up THAT much in spring training. Last year first four starts, 94.32, 92.99, 93.91, and 90.82 average on fastball. This year 92.77, which given his light workload seems fine to me. He's not down four to five on his fastball from this time last year.It's closer to that if you look at his early max velos from last year instead of the averages. But yeah, the velocities he showed yesterday weren't unprecedented/apocalyptic for him (the actual numbers weren't available for original post), but they were about as low as we've seen him. Let me put it this way, if he even touched the upper 90s a couple times yesterday, I'd write the start off completely, regardless of pretty much anything else that happened. Iffy velocity though is the one thing I'm willing to take at least a little bit seriously from a one-game sample, so I remain at least slightly nervous about his health.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2019 8:04:06 GMT -5
Today they had a 2-0 lead but didn't really capitalize and then the roof caved in on Sale. I guess that's the other thing. He had no command. I don't care that he wasn't throwing 99 - kind of glad he wasn't, but I know one thing. He'll have a helluva time getting back to that 2.11 ERA he carried last year. I think that will be tough to match when you give up 7 runs in 3 innings. Don't know if he had an outing as bad last year. I expected some struggles without him using his plus fastball, but not like that. The command was so off. I'd actually say the opposite, fastball velo is one of the few things you can't just write off to small sample size. I know he hasn't had time to fully ramp up this spring, but... missing four-five tics off your fastball is always concerning. Guys don't ramp up THAT much in spring training.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2019 21:51:35 GMT -5
So, what we've learned (aside from what I hope is just Sale not being stretched out and ready) Velazquez is still Velazquez Hembree is still Hembree Thornburg is still Thornburg Nunez is still Nunez Eduardo Nunez as the opening day starting second baseman in particular just screams “World Series hangover season”.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2019 19:30:50 GMT -5
Super glad that Sale was willing to take a below market deal because he... uhh... cares about winning. Can't imagine any other explanation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2019 10:34:30 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 28, 2019 6:45:47 GMT -5
If the Red Sox really wanted Porcello on a cheap deal, they could just sign Dallas Keuchel.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 27, 2019 8:38:16 GMT -5
Please stop including the upsetting chicken log picture in your quotes, people.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 16:37:37 GMT -5
Did you guys read the articles? One is all about risk, other contracts, why now, why so long. With DeGroom it was nothing about Baseball just they needed to do it because the players wanted it, the owner needed it, the team needed or they'd loose the clubhouse and the GM needed it. Color me confused after what they have done and the fact he's under team control for two years that they needed it like that. It wasn't ones riskier than the other one. Which yea he is, it's the fact why he loves the DeGroom deal. The one by the guy I don't read, on the site I don't go to, that wasn't linked or quoted in the thread, and that you say is bad? Nah, didn't read it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 14:40:39 GMT -5
Struck me as funny, O'Brien: "They move Ben Zobrist around a lot. He's basically their Brock Holt." If you don't see what is funny, chances are you haven't followed baseball very long. "Yadier Molina is a pretty good defensive catcher, he's kind of their Sandy Leon."
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 14:22:21 GMT -5
I mean, you don't have to agree with his take, but are you honestly "confused"? The reasons to be concerned about Sale and not deGrom might be simplistic or even straight-up wrong, but I think we can all see them. Like, Olney's not being wishy-washy or intellectually dishonest or whatever you want to call it. He just thinks Sale is a much higher injury risk. Yeah I'll take that option please. It's not so much I think Sale is super safe, I just don't know how you can watch baseball and honestly think to yourself that Jake DeGrom, or anyone else, couldn't be on the operating table two weeks from now. I mean how many times do we have to see it? Prior's mechanics are prefect, Lincecum doesn't even ice his arm, Roy Halladay runs ten miles a day... it doesn't matter! It can go at any time for any pitcher, period. Also, Sale is at least pitching on his original UCL, which means he has a significantly better chance of coming back strong from a future TJ. That's something we can actually say with a reasonable degree of certainty, unlike trying to predict injuries.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 26, 2019 10:44:37 GMT -5
Today, people know that's not it - guys like Robertson and Miller got decent money, even without those saves, because people recognize that they're good. Ottavino getting $9M per year though? Since coming back from his injury in 2015, he's struck out 1/3 of the batters he's faced. You can't guarantee he'll be good, certainly not for three years, but that's an incredibly reasonable risk. And it also spreads out the risk. Like, right now, the Red Sox have two relievers who I trust. If you have two trustworthy relievers, the chances are way too great that in four months you only have one trustworthy reliever, given the attrition and injury risk. But if you have three, that risk is just spread out more. There's the risk that Ottavino gets hurt and isn't worth his paycheck, but there's also the current risk that Brasier turns back into a pumpkin, and there's not a really great fallback plan. All of that talk about someone turning into Koji above... well the chances of that happening are better if you bring in a couple of Kojis (Kojii? Kojodes?). I just don't know how you put together this $230 million team filled with great players in their prime, and you entrust THIS bullpen with it. If anything I think it's easier to identify the good relievers now, because by and large you're just looking for guys with ~30% k rates, and that's not a particularly hard skill to nail down, even in a small sample. There's really not any Chad Bradford weirdos where you wonder if he can keep up the weird delivery and the home run suppression or whatever other weird trickery. All Ottavino does is throw a slider that no one can hit 50% of the time. As long as he still has that pitch, he's going to be good.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 25, 2019 11:12:09 GMT -5
Deciding you want to ride with Vaz and Swihart is fine, but if you get no return for him...that is bad planning. They should have made that decision over the winter. I refuse to believe not one team could use his services. They waited too long. Suppose your team needed a backup catcher. What are you trading for a 30-year-old one who hit .095/.167/.164 in the second half last year? Would you trade, like, a Chris Machamer (ranked 52nd in the system currently) for him? I would not. I think there are fair criticisms with the way the Red Sox handled this situation, but I just don't see how you look at Sandy Leon and think that any team is going to trade a valuable chip for what he offers. Most teams that could use a backup catcher that badly are better served holding onto their lottery tickets and fringy prospects and just signing one of the many good-glove no-hit catchers who are always floating around Triple-A. And, as much value as people want to put on Leon's defense, this is the market where 30 teams can't find a use for Dallas Keuchel. I don't know how you can assume a demand for any non-star level player, much less the Sandy Leons of the world. You need a team that really values catcher defense, but hasn't found a great defensive catcher of their own yet, AND that team has to actually want to get better, which like half of them don't.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 25, 2019 11:05:39 GMT -5
This contract is the strongest argument for the point I've been making. He will be paid less over the next 5 years than he earned the team last year. To his credit, he understands where he is and who he plays for, that he's indentured to the Rays. He probably could have made as much simply by going to arbitration over those years but this guarantees the money even if he's injured and that's the one advantage. They have him where they want him, and he knows that. But it isn't fair at all. That he could only get a 17,000 raise, might never be that good again and didn't get paid for it? You think the fact he got 50 million helps that? I know you believe that crazy crap, but he didn't earn the team over 50 million last year. If you think a player getting 50 million after one year shows how the system is broken you seem to be missing the point. Heck you seem to want a new mode of production in this Country that pays people based on worth. Good luck with that. Awesome idea, that totally overlooks the capatalist economy we live in. Should players that tank repay the teams that spent years and tons of money developing them? You can't only have it one way. Baseball players just want their fair share as a group based off the total money in the game. Umm... what?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 12:24:48 GMT -5
Crazy. Good deal for the sox, he finally gets paid, helps alleviate shoulder/wear and tear concerns.Oh sure man. I feel much better about it now. ![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAW6mbkXgAAyiKg.jpg)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 10:39:07 GMT -5
Snell got paid today. 5/$50M and will be a FA in time for his age 30 season. Probably left some money on the table, but I'm sure the security is nice. That is exactly why Snell was a horrible choice for people to talk about as a problem with Baseball and players getting paid. One great season got him 50 million and he's set for life. Yet if he went the Betts route after a mega deal some how that was wrong haha. I don't know why people treat this like an end-all-be-all when it's almost completely irrelevant to the problem we're discussing. If all anyone needs is to be "set for life", I propose a 100% tax rate on all personal wealth in excess of ten million dollars. Hell, let's treat ourselves, make it twenty mil.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 9:36:28 GMT -5
Worth noting too that during the Epstein era, they were much better about extending players early. Youk, Lester, Buchholz, and Pedroia all were extended well in advance of free agency, all of which worked out great from a team perspective. Even as frustrating as Buchholz was, no one ever really wanted to trade him, because that contract was so good.
Some of that's just circumstance, but it does kind of seem like in recent years either haven't quite nailed some of their internal evaluations, or haven't had the conviction to act on them. Maybe they tried to extend Mookie early and he was just never interested, but it seems like if you'd really gone hard after him early on you could have gotten something done. Or Rich Hill, for a much smaller example. There's a ton of hindsight there but still, if there was one team that should have known what they had there, it should have been the one that identified it in the first place.
Which, by the way, right about now would be a great time to lock up Devers, BEFORE the breakout. Or even Beni, who's only a few gusts of wind away from his own MVP campaign, really.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 22, 2019 9:32:23 GMT -5
I wish they would shop CV instead. I don’t care if León never gets another hit. The pitchers love him and that counts for something. He can also teach Blake to be a better catcher. If they make a trade, what would they get in return, a stud reliever? I doubt that. Better a good prospect. Yeah but Vazquez is also a strong defender, and either one of the two can cover most of the defensive innings at catcher, so it's really kind of a waste to carry both. If Swihart, who has not hit at all in recent history, is expected to take like twelve steps forward with the bat and become an above-average hitter, I really don't see why Vazquez can't take one or two steps forward with his defense to become the equal of Leon. Also, I guess they must be feeling at least somewhat confident in Swihart's defense if they're willing to make him the primary backup.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2019 18:39:00 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it. FTH, do you mean, sign him irregardless of the effect on the Lux Tax punishments? Pretty much, yeah. I don't think there's any realistic Mookie contract that I would even think twice about.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2019 16:54:19 GMT -5
I'm working really hard to figure out who was hurt or offended here, but it ain't easy. I’m not hurt, just think it’s a bit too far to give a roster spot to someone for something like this. If all things were equal he wouldn’t have made the team and he certainly wouldn’t have gotten ABs. So he technically took a couple game checks from an underpaid minor leaguer and ABs from a better player. But yes the team ultimately won the games so “no harm no foul”. Do I think it’s the end of the world? Of course not, I could be wrong but I can’t think of another time something like that was done and as great as it is for Ichiro and the Japanese fans it does diminish the supposed importance of the regular season games. Of course most people didn’t even know these games were taking place so what difference does it make? When Craig Biggio and Derek Jeter decided to retire, they were given full seasons to hit .251/.285/.381 and .256/.304/.313, respectively. In the long history of teams giving too much time to former superstars, this isn't even a blip. (Oh yeah, and Ichiro getting to play his last two games in Japan is an amazing way for an iconic player to finish his career, certainly a far bigger deal for the game of baseball than denying Dylan Moore a couple plate appearances he theoretically deserves or whatever.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 21, 2019 6:51:30 GMT -5
I don't know why everyone is twisting themselves into knots over this. Pay him. That's it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 20, 2019 12:28:30 GMT -5
Guys, instead of posting, why don't you just let the passage of time prove that Eovaldi isn't going to be closer this year?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 20, 2019 0:11:19 GMT -5
Shouldn't we wait and see there? I’m not even a Joe Kelly believer myself, I’m just saying that I’m probably more likely to take seriously the small sample from the 25 year old who got a fresh start and figured something out than the small sample from Joe Kelly, who is Joe Kelly.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 19, 2019 18:41:58 GMT -5
Why is that a shock? He always had elite stuff it was always the command and control comes and goes wildly. 16 innings doesn't change that.Joe Kelly says hi.
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