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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 26, 2020 8:36:11 GMT -5
you’ve all convinced me. I say Rolen, Aramis Ramirez, should both get in.No one said this or implied it besides you. Ramirez isn't a HOF, he was almost as good a hitter as Rolen but not nearly as good at anything else. He has 30 less career WAR than Rolen. The only one who thinks they're the same.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 22:18:35 GMT -5
In the same span, let’s look: R. RBI. HR. OPS 838. 1,049. 296. .861 730. 794. 183. .837 363 more runs offensive difference. You cannot do an apples to apples comparison of defensive runs saved to (runs + RBIs). They're not measures of the same thing, nomenclature aside.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 20:45:36 GMT -5
Nope, never heard of it. C’mon. Sure, a saved run... same. But... how many runs do people single-handedly save? Or... more specifically, how many more runs does a good fielder single-handedly save over an average fielder? I said poor fielding is brutal and costs tons. But once you hit average, I suspect the difference narrows. So, for example, Jeff Kent was likely painful to pitch in front of, but his offense made up for that. Even a poor fielder like him couldn’t surrender runs at nearly the pace he produced them. Edit: and when I say single-handedly, I mean no doubt you made the difference, and no one (or almost) else would have. So what was all that talk about Gold Gloves about? You seemed to care about great defense a minute ago.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 18:37:03 GMT -5
I’m not even disputing that he was an elite defender. I am disputing that that makes one a HOF third baseman. Well if he wasn't also a very good hitter, it wouldn't.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 17:49:41 GMT -5
How does fame not factor into getting into the hall of fame? And where do they get off calling themselves a HALL of fame, when it's more like an atrium or a gallery?
You guys need to cut him a little slack. Even if you're right the process leaning on WAR rather than counting numbers has been in effect for, at most, 5 years and it's very likely that refined stats make WAR look just as silly 10 years from now.Do you dispute that Scott Rolen was an elite defender? This is not a question about WAR.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 14:47:45 GMT -5
I return to Grich. He led the league in WAR in 1973.... with the same WAR Mike Trout had last year. This is a complicated formula that I think you’d agree doesn’t mean Grich ‘73 was as good as Trout ‘19. What are you trying to prove? Grich played 162 that year, Trout missed over a month in 19. WAR is cumulative, Grich wasn't as good but made it up in bulk, mystery solved.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 13:17:16 GMT -5
Perception vs reality is not always easy for people to reconcile. Human activity is usually too complicated to be reduced to formulae. Especially aesthetic ones. Counting hits and RBIs and even Gold Gloves are also "formulae", and you're the one who's ignoring visual and anecdotal evidence.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2020 9:06:46 GMT -5
You question Andrelton Simmons already being one of the 20 best run-preventers of all time? And you think it's everyone else who is just reading the scorebooks and doing calculus with their heads down? Dude, if you're missing Andrelton Simmons I would encourage you to watch him while you have the chance. But what if Rabbit Maranville was a superior defender and dWAR just doesn't show it?!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2020 20:59:08 GMT -5
Rafael Palmero getting a gold glove when he didn't play the position kind of ruined the award. Sometimes hitting factors into the decision making (it shouldn't) or just nostalgia/reputation. A guy makes a great diving play on a ball that a truly great defender would already be well positioned for and the guy making the spectacular play gets glory he really shouldn't be getting. Defensive metrics aren't perfect, but they tell a better story than the eye test. I'm a fan of collecting data than going off a gut instinct. I'm going to actually say that for guys like Scott Rolen and Andrelton Simmons the eye test is kind of all you need. Like it takes a great scout to sift a 55 defender from a 50, but spotting an 80 is not that hard. It's the guy who's making jaw dropping plays constantly. That dWAR confirms this to be the case... I mean, yeah. Story checks out. What are we navel gazing about here?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2020 20:48:21 GMT -5
The third player is Robin Ventura ( 6 Gold Gloves and a top-10 MVP finish). He is obviously not as good as Rolen, but it is pretty close, considering that Ventura was immediately rejected, like Burks. The biggest gap is WAR again. So I would suggest that Rolen is a WAR candidate... if you didn’t know his WAR, his numbers would not make a strong case. Even if you believe this means something, read the room. Your audience is not receptive to this argument. Scott Rolen was Ellis Burks as a hitter and something close to Adrian Beltre at third... what part of that doesn't describe a HOF player to you?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2020 14:29:39 GMT -5
Oh, and the Gold Gloves, yes. Peel the foil back on those gloves gloves and you'll find delicious milk chocolate.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2020 12:29:32 GMT -5
Two things: one, I mean more broadly than homers. I might tell grandkids about Sam Horn, but Indians fans won’t. And don’t be reductive... I am not saying this is exclusively the rule. Secondly, your two choices are interesting, because, again, if Rolen is in, Utley and Pedroia have very strong cases. If we throw out “counting stats” why wouldn’t Pedroia be in? His peak WAR is about HOF average, and he has a reasonable career WAR. ROY, MVP, GGs, heart of greatest stretch in Red Sox history. Now, for me, his career is incomplete and that keeps him out. But if we don’t care about counting stats anymore, not getting to 2,000 hits is no issue. Pedroia has roughly 45 career WAR and Rolen is at roughly 70. I'm not saying WAR is an automatic argument ender, but there is way more heavy lifting to be done if you want to make the case that Pedroia is any kind of Rolen equivalent.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2020 11:51:47 GMT -5
Weren't you just talking about how compounding silliness is silly? Because people didn't appreciate Scott Rolen enough in his day, we shouldn't let him into the hall of fame now even though statistically he's a slam dunk? How is he a slam dunk? He barely cleared 2,000 hits, which has long been an absolute minimum for offensive players. As I wrote above after a four year stretch from 26-29, he was basically average for half his career. It wasn’t silly that he didn’t get love in his career. He had 4 excellent seasons. His career is remarkably similar to Dale Murphy, except Murphy’s best was better. If Rolen gets in, the floor is lower. Guys with injury shortened careers or short primes have renewed cases. Look back at Rolen’s career and ask yourself how many of those seasons stand with the best of all time. It might... MIGHT... be 5. But that is tops. If Rolen is in, a great case fan be made for Nomar, who was a better player to age 29, and was equally mediocre in an even more injury-plagued second half. He certainly had better great years. Dude, sorry you can't appreciate one of the most fun players ever: Lightning quick, amazing range, insane arm. Go watch Jeter make some more jump throws three feet away from where he set up on the infield I guess, he's got that "aura".
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 23, 2020 22:16:54 GMT -5
I agree that postseason performance should count for something. But: Derek Jeter, regular season career: .310/.377/.440 Derek Jeter, postseason career: .308/.374/.465 He's just the exact same player. And if you're wondering about Mr. November's clutchiness, his career postseason WPA is... -0.92. It's actually kind of remarkable he was that unclutch, considering the very respectable slash line. He played essentially a full season's worth of postseason games, and that WPA is worse than any single season he played until his last year in 2014. Yeah but... that's good. At a minimum it's essentially an extra season of peak Jeter you can tack on to his career.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 23, 2020 22:08:26 GMT -5
The report is missing parts or just incorrect. There's no scenario where the Padres can acquire Mookie, take on no other bad contracts, move Myers deal, and hold onto their top 5 prospects. The surplus value of Mookie plus the negative value of Myers is not going to be bridged with a quantity package of non-top 5 guys. Price and Mookie? No, top prospects!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 23, 2020 16:21:11 GMT -5
Next year has the potential to be the most hated HOF class ever. No legit candidates get added to the ballot (Tim Hudson, Aramis Ramirez, Mark Buehrle, etc.). Imagine an all-heel class of Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens. Things get interesting again in 2022 with ARod and Papi. Yikes. I wonder if that helps someone like Vizquel or Rolen get in just as like a palate cleanser. With Walker in, I think Rolen becomes the next guy to benefit from a public campaign on his behalf.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 23, 2020 12:37:03 GMT -5
How does Derek Jeter miss a single vote? How does Larry f'ing Walker get voted into the HoF? When Harold Baines, Jim Rice, Larry Walker, Craig Biggio, and Jack Morris all get into the hall you might as well just open it up to everyday regulars. At this rate, as long as Benintendi starts for the next 13 years he should be a lock. How does Mike Mussina get in and not Curt Schilling? Oh, I know, because it has nothing to do with on-the-field and everything to do with off it. It's a complete joke now. Career fWAR Baines: 38.4 Rice: 50.8 Walker: 68.7 Biggio: 65.8 Morris: 55.8 Walker and Biggo don't deserve to be on your list at all. Rice and Morris are both pretty weak selections, and then Baines is in a whole other category of awful. A few more just for funzos: Dwight Evens: 65.1 Tim Raines 66.4 Kenny Lofton 62.4 Reggie Jackson 72.7 Tony Gwyen: 65.0 Mike Trout: 73.4 In 2011 Larry Walker got 20.3% of the vote. In 2014 Larry Walker got 10.2% of the vote (he lost over 50% of his votes). In 2020 Larry Walker got 76.6% of the 75% required in his last and final year on the ballot. What made Larry Walker go from 10% in 2014 to 76.6% in 2020? What changed that made him that much more of a HoFer? Even then, he barely squeaked in. You'd have to go look at the ballots, but some of these years had a crazy logjam of worth candidates, to the point that people were complaining about the ten-player limit. For instance I bet some people gave Harold Baines their tenth vote over Walker just because Baines was running out of time.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 21, 2020 8:55:33 GMT -5
Is... that a thing that changed? A hundred years ago, but yes it’s a thing that changed. 1. I don't think anything that went on in baseball a hundred years ago is particularly relevant to this discussion. 2. Re-prioritizing the way your align your infielders relative to their defensive ability isn't the same thing as redefining the position itself. Taking framing and pitch-calling away from catchers isn't the same as moving your best defender from third baseman to shortstop, it's like saying third baseman are no longer allowed to throw overhand. Adrian Beltre was still one of the most valuable defensive players despite third base not being a defense-first position most of the time. Whereas if you take framing away, Yadi Molina just isn't the same guy. He's a mediocre player instead of a guy with a reasonable shot at the HOF, because you can't take his framing ability or his pitch calling and find some other use for it, the way a great defender can take his glove from third base to shortstop.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 21, 2020 8:39:02 GMT -5
So basically, this isn't going to happen.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 20, 2020 13:44:34 GMT -5
The guy who brought modern pitching analytics to the Red Sox is former major league pitcher Brian Bannister, fyi. We're not talking spin rates and mechanics. We're talking about merging a pitchers technical data with that of the "book" on a batter, given a real time game situation. Would Brian Bannister, knowing what he now knows, pitch differently then he did when he took the mound during his days as a player? Does his pitching analysis expertise improve the Red Sox staff? There is a long list of Red Sox prospect pitchers that don't or didn't develop. Some develop elsewhere. The Red Sox have had far better results buying established talent then developing there own. Yeah that sounds like a good idea to me. As far as Bannister's expertise improving the staff... it's fairly obvious that his department engineered the recent success of Workman and Barnes, with both switching to breaking balls as their primary pitches.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 20, 2020 13:39:36 GMT -5
We aren’t really bemoaning that third basemen are no longer defensive specialists anymore. Is... that a thing that changed?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2020 14:42:11 GMT -5
I am missing where the framing comes into it, why is that going away? Automated strike zone. Not directly related to the sign stealing stuff, but it is coming and probably fairly soon.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2020 14:33:14 GMT -5
It also should be noted that base stealing would become harder, because catchers wouldn't need to worry about stealing the strike call while receiving in a way that gets them ready to throw. Without framing, the catcher can basically get as close to throwing position as he can so long as it isn't interference. MLB is also playing around with ways to encourage more stolen bases, so... does Ivan Rodriguez have a kid?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2020 10:48:24 GMT -5
So the "analysts" call the game..... it's the 6th inning, 3rd time through the order is up. The analysts are computing at top speed. The pitcher in the meantime has the beginnings of a blister. The catcher is aware that the pitcher has lost some "bite" on his breaking ball. The analyst calls for a curve ball. The catcher looks to the dugout (analysts box) and shakes his head. Does the "analyst" go to plan B, or back to what his number crunching calls for? Who makes the call? How about the scenario where the catcher CAN ONLY call for the pitch the analyst call for? The catcher calls for the pitch AND the pitcher shakes him off. Forget the analytics DURING the game. There are variables that are fluid and cannot be calculated during game situations. You already see this with defensive alignments. Hitters can adjust in real time to shifts... or not. Some can/will, others won't. This entire "concept" is beyond ludicrous all the way to mental masturbation performed by wanna-bees. I'm done with this stupidity. The guy who brought modern pitching analytics to the Red Sox is former major league pitcher Brian Bannister, fyi.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 19, 2020 10:38:55 GMT -5
Yeah. You take away some control from the pitcher and catcher, but so what? For decades in football the QB called the plays. Then coaches started calling plays from sidelines via hand signals. Then (due to sign stealing) you got radio transmitters in helmets. I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad thing, but we are kind of on the verge of completely redefining what a catcher is. Pitch calling, gone. Framing/receiving? Robo zone, won't matter. Can't visit the pitcher on the mound... 75% of what these guys have historically done defensively and as a handler for the pitcher is about to be gone. It's going to become a much more like 1B where there are some defensive skills you care about but most of what determines the player's value is their offense. Again, I don't know if this is bad, but it's at least worth thinking about.
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