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Post by p23w on Jan 16, 2018 22:58:57 GMT -5
Would all this "drama" be happening had the FO kept Shaw? If the Sox had kept Shaw and Hanley was coming off a season like he had in 2016, then probably not. Shaw would probably be at 1b and Mitch Moreland probably would never have been acquired or maybe Shaw would still be at 3b and we wouldn't know about the wonder that's Rafael Devers or worse perhaps Devers would have been dealt away? Perhaps even if Shaw was around, if Hanley is coming off the season that he just had in 2017, they'd still be looking for a RH middle of the order hitter which Shaw isn't, being that he's a lefty and with Benintendi and Devers around they still need a reliable RH power bat in the middle of the order which is where JDM comes in. Regardless, the punditry and media would not be droning on and on how this team needs a power bat and people might start thinking clearly about how this team needs a quality RHSP. Selling low on Shaw and getting nada was a bad move. As it stands there is one, very expensive, RH bat on the market, and several more affordable RHSP pitchers. I guess short term reality drama draws viewers and clicks. It will not win this team a World Series and maybe not even a pennant. A proven RH power bat can always be obtained at the trading deadline. How about we sign JDM and trade him straight up for Grienke?
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Post by p23w on Jan 16, 2018 20:43:32 GMT -5
This 7/180 figure is stupid unless we’re intentionally backloading in thoughts that $30M in 2025 isn’t as big of a number as it seems today. I don’t even believe we offered 5/150 because I think Martinez would have taken that. He doesn’t have that many suitors, and everything in the media is just posturing. This whole saga has been so boring. Would all this "drama" be happening had the FO kept Shaw?
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Post by p23w on Jan 14, 2018 17:26:16 GMT -5
We don't talk enough about what a disgrace the Mets are. I mean, we talk about it a lot, but I still don't think it's enough. I wouldn't use the word disgrace to describe the Mets team (ownership, maybe). I'd use the words mismanaged and snakebit. I like their new manager and 'they say' Harvey and Wheeler are healthy. Thor is back. It's a weak division save for the Nats. Second place is doable, .500 is doable, beyond that WGaF.
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Post by p23w on Jan 12, 2018 19:01:26 GMT -5
I don't know. I witnessed two press conferences in Washington during Bryce's rookie year. He winced hard when two reporters got into a expleted deletive shouting match, and he cut off one young sports writer who asked Harper who (what player) he'd like to have a beer with. Harper cut him off to say that he didn't drink, while another reporter said that's because you're not old enough yet. Washington sportswriters didn't much care for the desert wunderkid early on. I really wonder how much sophistication and media awareness Harper has accumulated. No one can doubt his incredible talent that is a universal acknowledgement. Well he was only 19 his rookie year. He’s now 25. People develop and change a lot between the ages of 19 and 25. ITA. He couldn't grow a beard and had short hair at 19. Looking at him now tells you that he was uncomfortable with the attention at 19. With all the hair I can't get a read on him and since I've left the Beltway lifestyle I don't get to many Nats games. I can tell you that watching Harper take BP is a treat, he still needs to improve on his defensive footwork to take full advantage of a plus++ arm. Other than that he has adapted rather well. I think he has more plate discipline than even Trout. All I can say is if he signs with the Yanks, I'm quitting MLB.
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Post by p23w on Jan 12, 2018 15:21:36 GMT -5
I can't think of a single player I'd be less concerned about handling Boston. I don't know. I witnessed two press conferences in Washington during Bryce's rookie year. He winced hard when two reporters got into a expleted deletive shouting match, and he cut off one young sports writer who asked Harper who (what player) he'd like to have a beer with. Harper cut him off to say that he didn't drink, while another reporter said that's because you're not old enough yet. Washington sportswriters didn't much care for the desert wunderkid early on. I really wonder how much sophistication and media awareness Harper has accumulated. No one can doubt his incredible talent that is a universal acknowledgement.
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Post by p23w on Jan 12, 2018 11:26:43 GMT -5
I understand from reading your posts that you want a top of the rotation starter instead of a top flight hitter, which is an understandable request. But using postseason stats does not show how imperative a hitter is to this team, nor does it show that they would be better off with another ace. In face, if we want to cherry pick post season stats I could do the same thing with Sale this postseason to show why we don't need a top of the rotation pitcher. But that wouldn't make much sense to do. [/quote]
Not true. My contention has always been that this team is short with respect to pitching. This team won a post season game last year with a "mediocre" Moreland in the line up. This team also surrendered 8 runs twice and could not hold a late inning lead. Of course a JDM or an Ortiz would stand to help, but it is doubtful that either guy would account for 6 runs, not once, but twice in last years playoffs. And the presence of Ortiz did not help enough to win the season series against NY in 2016. It's about match ups. This team does not match up well against Houston or NY.
There is a problem with that though because it goes both ways. You are using those stats to justify why we don't absolutely need someone like Ortiz/JDM by showing that they didn't contribute much in the postseason. If you understand that the post season numbers don't mean much at all in such a small sample, then you can't possibly use it to justify why an Ortiz/JDM type hitter isn't required.
I am not opposed to a top of the line bat. I like JDM. He has a career .337 BA against the NYY. I used the post season stats to illustrate the incongruity of labeling Moreland as mediocre. I just think that our top two pitchers (however good their numbers are in the regular season) show a tendency (much like Pedro did) to run out of gas somewhere around the 3200 pitch mark. These guys are not built like Clemens or Verlander. And they are lefties. The Yanks and the Astros' are predominately right hand line ups. This is not a good recipe for a Price or Sale that are not at 100%. FWIW I have more faith, or expectation, with Sale then I have for Price. That said even if one of the two is at the top of his game we still need another top of the line pitcher (preferably a righty) at the top of his game to get to the WS. The difference between standing pat and signing JDM would be negligible come October. The road to a deeper run in the post season lies in rotation management and a quality RHSP in the rotation. Unless Porcello steps up big time (which I have serious doubt, due to the match ups with NY and Hstn) then this team will not advance. Keep in mind both the Astros' and the NYYs' will be adding a front line SP. Most likely a RHSP.
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Post by p23w on Jan 11, 2018 21:17:01 GMT -5
There is no way the Orioles part with both Mancini and Cisco. Why would the RS give up a proven RHSP good for 200 IP? Lynn, you loose a draft pick. Cobb you probably don't get 200 IP but you can expect a higher AAV than Porcello is paid. I'd just as soon forget the trade ... and Lynn, and sign Cobb.
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Post by p23w on Jan 11, 2018 21:03:24 GMT -5
Significant? You answer. Mediocre was the key word I was addressing. Altuve is your straw man. My would be Daniel Nava who failed to hit another grand slam after his first AB. Such a disappointment. We're still talking about 4 games for JDM and Moreland. TINY sample size. You can do nothing whatsoever to prevent bad performance or guarantee good performance in 4 games for any player. Papi hit .111/.250/.222 in the 2016 playoffs for example. Ted Williams played 7 playoff games in his career and hit .200/.333/.200. Do you think if he played 85 playoff games like David Ortiz did, he wouldn't hit a whole lot better than that? The post I was responding to lamented the signing of Moreland as mediocrity in the lower half of the batting order while belying angst with regard to our need to sign JDM. I was addressing his world view with the most recent playoff stats. For those who think JDM is a necessity. I am acutely aware of the disparity between regular season stats and post season stats (which is why I am big on individual match ups). Those who think that a bopper is imperative for this team only need to look at Papis' 2016 line and JDMs' 2017 post season numbers.
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Post by p23w on Jan 11, 2018 17:42:17 GMT -5
Last year Moreland hit .385/.467 in the post season. JDM hit .250/.294. Do you think that's significant? Altuve hit 3 HR in game 1. Do you think he's normally a guy who hits about 486 home runs per season or is it only if he faced Chris Sale for every at bat? Significant? You answer. Mediocre was the key word I was addressing. Altuve is your straw man. My would be Daniel Nava who failed to hit another grand slam after his first AB. Such a disappointment.
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Post by p23w on Jan 10, 2018 23:13:36 GMT -5
Yes . Reed is a good choice. This is a question not a challenge - if the Sox sign JDM and Reed or Cobb (not Lynn he would cost a draft pick) they would definitely be above 237m then . Is it worth it? I'm not sure what "worth it" means. I can spend John Henry's money pretty easily though. Anyhow, the problem is when it comes to the playoffs a lot comes down to how hot you are along with talent. I don't like how the Sox "limited themselves" with Moreland. When I think of other potential mediocrity at the bottom of the order - so I would side with "it's not worth it" for either. So if the SOx get JDM -- then see what they can do with it thus keeping open deadline deals. What do you think? Last year Moreland hit .385/.467 in the post season. JDM hit .250/.294.
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Post by p23w on Jan 10, 2018 21:45:46 GMT -5
p23w, Lot of points. Luck is also the residue of luck. The Red Sox usually lost because their manager was old school dumb. I think you meant '67 rather than '47 (or did you mean '46)? Lonborg was the only really good pitcher they had unless you wanted Bell who got bombed in Game 3 to start or wanted to roll the dice with Lee Stange who hadn't started a game in awhile - and they already had done that with Gary Wasilewski in Game 6. And yes if it had rained maybe they would have had a chance, but then again Gibson would have had another day of rest - so instead of giving up 2 runs perhaps Gibson pitches a shutout instead. He had come off an injury and his innings total was quite low and he was in mid-season form. Nobody was touching Gibson. The Sox simply weren't as good as the Cards. The fact of the matter is the Sox weren't going to win unless they won the 4 games Gibson didn't start. No crime there.
Meant 46'. Lonborg outpitched Gibson in the series up to game 7. If the weather of 75' happened in 67' the impossible dream would have had a joyous ending and we would have all been spared the curse of the Bambino nonsense.
'75 - the Sox bullpen was questionable and yes the gamble to keep Tiant pitching Game 4 was reasonable. Bill Lee always said Johnson messed up not pitching him in Game 6 and give Tiant the rest to pitch Game 7. I don't really share that view, but it's an interesting thought.
I liked Lee when he tore the Gerbil a new anal passage at the close of the 78' season.
Honestly the pitcher the Sox were usually short back in those days was a dominating reliever. Joe Page was the difference between the late 40s Yankees and the Sox. The Sox bullpen in 75 didn't have a surefire closer - Drago and Willoughby were their best. The 86 bullpen was a disaster area. Schiraldi collapsed in the post-season and Stanley was brutal. In 03, Grady was scared to go to the pen even though Timlin, Embree, and Williamson had been pitching well in the post-season.
The only dominant relievers the Sox ever developed were Radatz and Papelbon. They never developed a decent bullpen until the 2000s'. And even now they try to get by on the cheap. The Sox were always shy one or more SP. Best chance was Clemens and Hurst (with Schilling at AA). Even Pedro was not enough until Schilling came back.
These Red Sox have a dominating reliever - unfortunately he spit the bit at the worst time last year. I always will wonder what would have happened had Kimbrel held the tie and the Sox had won on Devers' inside-the-park HR and had forced Game 5.
Pedey hits a 5th game winning home run and it's 2003 or 2004 all over again.
You tell me the Sox need to bring back Reed and get a dominating RH starter to mess up the Yankees and the Astros. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Darvish is the best guy out there, and he was brutal against the Astros. So who IS that starter you think they should get that's going to put them over the top? Is Curt Schilling coming out of retirement? He's the only guy I remember having that vibe and feeling that way about.
Darvish has the best stuff of all available FA pitchers. Darvish pitched well in his 5 starts prior to facing Houston. I believe that Houston (probably Beltran) found a way to read Darvish. The fact that the Astros' are talking with Darvish leads me to suspect that he was tipping his pitches. The FA market has 3 guys that I think qualify; Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb. The three long shots I would investigate are Lincecum, Harvey and Wheeler. I'm sure some creative FO guy who gets paid can come up with a handful of other candidates.
As far as Reed, try it from his perspective. He will get the most money as a closer. That will not be on the Red Sox. He will close for somebody's team and probably earn more than $10 million/year to do so. And there's this thought, too. Don't know if you recall, but it was Reed when he was the Mets who let the winning runs score in extra innings for the KC Royals in their World Series clinching Game 5 back in 2015. He entered the game 2-2 in a position of needing to hold down the Royals and by time the inning ended it was 7-2 Royals. Even Reed doesn't guarantee anything. And I liked Reed, but he is hardly dominating.
Try this perspective. Who is better Reed or Miller. I'd take Miller. Miller acquiesced his closer role in Baltimore to set up first in NY, then in Clev. Sit down with Reed. Compare his stats to Miller, and tell him you will pay him "Miller money" to set up for Kimbrel. If Reed is a team guy he signs. FWIW it wasn't only Reed who pitched poorly in the 2015 WS. The entire Mets bullpen sucked. There are others out there that I would consider. I just think that Reed has the stuff, experience and demeanor to do the job better than anyone else currently on the roster. I do think they will probably require bullpen help, but there's no reason they can't audition Barnes, Smith, Thornburg, Kelly, and Workman and see if somebody emerges as a dominating bullpen piece behind Kimbrel. My money would be on Smith as he is now healthier and his stuff was nasty (really good slider) when he was in Seattle. If not they can trade the next Jamie Callahan and Steve Nogosek for the next expiring contract of a good setup man/closer who is right-handed. The Sox need Price, Sale, Pomeranz, and Porcello not to suck when they start in October. They've had 7 lousy starts in 7 post-season starts. You'd think the law of averages would catch up with them at some point?!
Limit Sale and Price to 32 starts, 210IP or 3200 pitches. Yet to be named RHSP gets the same treatment. Two of Wright, Porcello, Pomeranz and E-Rod go to the bullpen. We need to let the cream rise by giving this staff the best opportunity and conditions to succeed. After that we can talk about the Law of averages.
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Post by p23w on Jan 10, 2018 16:52:44 GMT -5
[
On paper this is a playoff team. My concern is not with playing October baseball, it is about how to beat the other teams most likely to be around. I have a high degree of confidence that those teams include the Astros, Indians, and Yankees. Those are the teams I want to beat. Of those 3 teams the only opponent that I think JDM will really help us beat is Cleveland. It may just be that we can beat the Tribe sans JDM. A Darvish or an Arrieta (or a Cobb) will do more to help this team beat Houston or New York. Heck, I'd take a flyer on Harvey if he came cheap enough. In October it's all about match ups. When your top 3 starters are all lefties and your going up against the likes of RH line ups of NY or Hstn I don't like the odds. I have nothing against JDM. I hope the relation he has with DD works in our favor. I just think we need a front line pitcher more than a DH. That's tougher to do - design a team that will win post-season series. It's easier to tell Sale and Kimbrel not to suck and be as brilliant as they were during the regular season. Tell Price to pretend he's pitching out of the bullpen when he starts. I mean the Sox had a 22 game winner and a 17 game winner in 2016 have their worst starts of the year vs Cleveland. The best offense in 2016 dropped dead against Kluber (no crime there) and guys like Tomlin and Bauer (which is ridiculous). In 2017 a team with an ERA of 3.7 which is up there couldn't survive the 1st inning without getting crunched. The guy who was awful in the regular season (Hanley) was the only guy I trusted up in a key spot in the post-season - for the 2nd year in a row. Tell me how that makes sense! The point is you cannot build a team to beat Cleveland, NY, or Houston. You build the best team you can, hope they stay healthy and hope they perform as well as they did in the regular season. I mean in the regular season in 2016 the Sox beat Cleveland 5 games out of 7. The Indians were really banged up and it didn't matter.
We won the division in two consecutive years and lost the head to head match up against the NYYs'. Playing a Houston or Cleveland 7 or 9 times does not compare to playing the best team (on paper) in the division 19 times. The Tribe has lost assets from the 2017 roster. The Astros' were stronger at the end of the year (after we finished our season series against them) than when we played them. As I stated, this is a post season team. Whether this team is fodder, like the 2016 and 2017 team or a viable contender for a birth in the WS will depend on how it matches up against the NYY's, Astros' and to a lesser extent, the Tribe.
I don't want to say the post-season is a crapshoot, but in a way it is.
Luck is the residue of hard work....
As far as "my father's" Red Sox or at least the Sox I know most remember (I actually do remember 1986 clearly), the Red Sox lost because of boneheaded managerial decisions. In 75 it was Darrell Johnson going with a LOOGY to pitch the most important inning of the season (instead of staying with Willoughby who mowed the Reds down in the 8th) and we know what happen in 86 - thanks John McNamara. Hell Grady Little did the same boneheaded kind of stuff in 2003.
I blame it all on Lonborg pitching with only 2 days rest against Gibson.
What I'm trying to say is that "my father's Red Sox" usually lost because of hair brained decisions by an old school manager, not because they lacked this or lacked that.
Doesn't explain 47'. There is no game 7 in 1975 if Johnson doesn't allow El Tiante to throw 155 pitches (complete with having the tying runner in scoring position and Joe Morgan at the plate in the 9th) in game 5, and in 2003 Little leaves Pedro in (he gets 2 strikes on both Matsui and Posada) and the HOFer can't seal the deal as opposed to 86" when McNamara pulls the Rocket after 5 ground balls singles through 7 2/3 ip. Besides just getting to the WS in 86' rivals the comeback against the NYYs' in 2004. All things considered, your Fathers Red Sox were almost always one pitcher or more short. They were never at a loss for offensive heroics. The Red Sox have to find the best way to improve their team based on the weaknesses they have. On paper it's lack of a true middle of the order hitter they can count on and a thin bullpen bridge leading up to Kimbrel.
We disagree. I'm on record as urging DD to resign Reed. I am also of the opinion that this team positions itself better to advance in the playoffs with the addition of a front line RHSP.
It's not like if the Red Sox find a 30 game winner they can win. For Chrissakes the Dodgers had the Astros on the ropes and Clayton Kershaw couldn't hold a 4 run lead in Game 5. Stuff happens and you never really know why. I mean can the Dodgers find a better pitcher, somebody they'd prefer to start? No, but it didn't work out anyways. Keep in mind somebody is going to pay Yu Darvish big money and he killed the Dodgers in the Series as did the best closer in the game, Jansen, who pitched poorly. Again, the point is there is no winning formula. Build the team the best you can for the regular season and hope they play well in the post-season.
Keep in mind that Kershaw is a lefty and Houston has a predominately RH line up. Second time they saw Clayton, they owned him. Both Wood and Hill (both lefties) out pitched Kershaw in the WS. Both were on a short leash, which IMO lead to the premature meltdown of the Dodger bullpen. Both managers made gaffs in the 2017 WS. Hinch reacted quicker, and I can only concur with the insiders that Houston (probably Beltran) figured out how to read Darvish. Yu pitched well in the weeks leading up to the WS. The winning formula came down to Houston having more favorable match ups more often. I'd love to see a Red Sox player get a read on Verlander, or Severino or even Tanaka. Heck, I even wonder if the NL has read Harvey the way Houston read Darvish.
Again this team made the playoffs with no Ortiz and about 75 ip from their $30M dollar man. This team is playoff bound again. Loose another season series to the Yankees and the chances are they are fodder again. Find a RHSP that can go through Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, Gregorious, and Frazier 3 times and they stand a far better chance of winning the season series and advancing in the post season.
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Post by p23w on Jan 10, 2018 0:41:50 GMT -5
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Yes, the addition of JDM is a considerable asset. It would make for many slugfest games and one-sided wins over sub .500 teams. But no, it does not vault the RS above the NYY's or 'Stros. Both the Yanks and Astros will add pitching. The Yanks will have a full season from Gray and the 'Stros will have a full season from Verlander. JDM alone does not make the RS offense better than either team..... particularly with their improved pitching staffs. To beat Houston and New York in 2018 a top of the rotation pitcher is needed. Remember David Ortiz was released and signed by the RS for peanuts. Not saying we could get this lucky again, just pointing out that elite hitters are easier to come by.
No, the addition of JDM doesn't vault the Red Sox ahead of the Yankees or Astros. What it does it narrow the gap in the offense between Boston and those teams. Think of it in 2016 terms. If JDM can give them 90 - 95% of the offense Ortiz gave the Sox in 2016 and you mix in comebacks by Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts and continued maturation by Benintendi and Devers who is there for a full year, and perhaps between Hanley or Moreland they get better production at 1b - this could put the Red Sox back in 2016 offense territory when they actually led the league in offense.
Reminds me of "your Fathers" Red Sox circa Williams, Yaz, Lynn & Rice, Burkes, Boggs and Vaughn. The RS are not going to lead the league in offense in 2018. Take that to the bank. JDM or no JDM.
On paper the Red Sox already have front line pitching that the Yankee don't have. The Sox already have Sale, Price, and Pomeranz penciled in and Porcello is the 2016 Cy Young winner - they hope he can be somewhere between his performance of 2016 and 2017, and they have E-Rod who has a pretty high ceiling and Steven Wright who was an all-star before Farrell thought he'd make a good pinch-runner. That's 6 viable options. On paper that's quality and quantity.
The Yankees will add a front line pitcher. Trust me. The Pedro enhanced Severino may get better. They will have Gray for a full season.The have a lefty, in Montgomery who can actually stay healthy, and a grizzled vet in Sabbathia. Tanaka may not make 32 starts, but the 25-27 he does give you will be quality. Sale and Price are quality. But that quality lasts for about 210IP or 3200 pitches. Beyond that, against playoff caliber offenses, much needs to be seen. Pomeranz is probably (maybe) good for 180 IP. E-Rod has much to prove, several chances to prove himself and has yet to remain healthy over a season, let alone the playoffs. Porcello is the "iron Man" of this staff.... and yet he may have the worst stuff. Wright may have made his Scott Cooper (or Brock Holt) All-star appearance. How many starts or IP he can give this team is anybodys' guess. On paper the Sox have a slight edge and far more questions. After the Yankees add the likes of a Darvish or Cobb the balance shifts to the Yankees... on paper.
The bullpen is more iffier, but they do have the best closer in the league in Kimbrel. I know you want Reed back but the odds are he wants to close and that's not happening in Boston. The Sox are hoping that Carson Smith is what he was in Seattle. If he is then the Sox have a quality setup/high leverage guy. If Thornburg reproduces his 2016 season then the Sox have another quality/high leverage guy. I don't honestly think Thornburg will bounce back, but we'll see. We know Kelly has the stuff to be high leverage but we certainly can't count on that. Workman is capable of being a solid reliever. I'm sure the Sox hope that Barnes finally takes the leap forward that he's capable of, but again there's uncertainty there, too. The good news is that if they need an Addison Reed, they can always get a guy like (with an expiring contract) that on July 31st for a reasonable price.
Again. A lot of "ifs" in the Boston pen. Too many for my liking. Not so many "ifs" in the Yankee pen. Boone will have a far easier time making late inning pitching changes than Cora.
So if you look at what the team needs on paper, it's offense first and bullpen help second. My gut tells me the offense will be a lot better and the pitching will have unanticipated issues, but you can't solve issues based on a gut feeling - you have to look at what's in front of you, and the best way to solve that is JDM. His addition, I think, also takes the pressure off of the other guys who don't have to be "The guy". I think that messed with them without Ortiz around to be "That guy" in the lineup that pitchers dread pitching to. Without JDM then they have to rely on bouncebacks and good health and if that doesn't happen then their offense will be light years behind New York and Houston's. JDM closes that gap and gives them a chance to have the best offense in the league or at least be up there.[/quote]
On paper this is a playoff team. My concern is not with playing October baseball, it is about how to beat the other teams most likely to be around. I have a high degree of confidence that those teams include the Astros, Indians, and Yankees. Those are the teams I want to beat. Of those 3 teams the only opponent that I think JDM will really help us beat is Cleveland. It may just be that we can beat the Tribe sans JDM. A Darvish or an Arrieta (or a Cobb) will do more to help this team beat Houston or New York. Heck, I'd take a flyer on Harvey if he came cheap enough. In October it's all about match ups. When your top 3 starters are all lefties and your going up against the likes of RH line ups of NY or Hstn I don't like the odds. I have nothing against JDM. I hope the relation he has with DD works in our favor. I just think we need a front line pitcher more than a DH.
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Post by p23w on Jan 9, 2018 19:52:52 GMT -5
If the Sox were to target a pitcher in this class, you guys are targeting the wrong guy. Alex Cobb is the guy you go after. He won't be as overvalued with his lowered price tag and he's a guy who's proven to pitch at a high level in the AL East. He has been rumored to want 4 years at 70 million. That is a lot less dollars and more value than Arrieta. It also could give you room to make more moves later on.
I like Cobb. His experience in the ALE is a definite plus. I just like Arrietas' demeanor and Darviushs' stuff better. I try not to muddle my thinking with the business side of baseball.
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Post by p23w on Jan 9, 2018 19:47:56 GMT -5
I don't think Darvish or Arrietta would replace Wright on the 25 man roster. I think either one would replace a bullpen arm. Of course this is a decision for the coaching staff. Of course JDM is an upgrade over Brentz. No argument. I postulated that IF you go the FA route for a bat JDM is an upgrade to Bruce. My contention is that the team will benefit more with the addition of a front line starter than a future DH. Sign JDM and almost immediately Cora has problem with PA's, and the NYY's still have a better offense. I'd rather give Aaron Boone a headache than leave Alex Cora with a potential clubhouse problem. [/quote]
I think it's being underestimated how good an offensive player JD Martinez is. Hanley will either play 1b or platoon with Moreland. I prefer the former scenario but the latter scenario is more likely. Between Benintendi, JBJ, Betts, JDM, and Moreland it's not hard to imagine that at least one of those players will see DL time during the season. If so the plate appearances will work out fine.
The bottom line is that a DH who can hit the way JD Martinez can is a huge asset. This is a .300 hitter with 35+ home run power who IS the cleanup hitter so guys like Ramirez and Moreland won't be. The Red Sox need this kind of hitter most. As a DH it's not hard to see him playing at a high level for another 3 or 4 seasons. Even as a DH he can be quite valuable. Ortiz certainly was. Where would the Sox have been without his bat? Martinez isn't Ortiz but his numbers would fit alright in Ortiz's annual stat lines. [/quote]
Yes, the addition of JDM is a considerable asset. It would make for many slugfest games and one-sided wins over sub .500 teams. But no, it does not vault the RS above the NYY's or 'Stros. Both the Yanks and Astros will add pitching. The Yanks will have a full season from Gray and the 'Stros will have a full season from Verlander. JDM alone does not make the RS offense better than either team..... particularly with their improved pitching staffs. To beat Houston and New York in 2018 a top of the rotation pitcher is needed. Remember David Ortiz was released and signed by the RS for peanuts. Not saying we could get this lucky again, just pointing out that elite hitters are easier to come by.
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Post by p23w on Jan 9, 2018 16:14:04 GMT -5
JDM is a better option than Bruce, going forward. Darvish or Arrietta would have a better impact for the team going forward. How so? Darvish or Arrietta would replace Wright on the roster. It's an upgrade, sure, but not nearly the upgrade that JDM is over Brentz.
I don't think Darvish or Arrietta would replace Wright on the 25 man roster. I think either one would replace a bullpen arm. Of course this is a decision for the coaching staff. Of course JDM is an upgrade over Brentz. No argument. I postulated that IF you go the FA route for a bat JDM is an upgrade to Bruce. My contention is that the team will benefit more with the addition of a front line starter than a future DH. Sign JDM and almost immediately Cora has problem with PA's, and the NYY's still have a better offense. I'd rather give Aaron Boone a headache than leave Alex Cora with a potential clubhouse problem.
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Post by p23w on Jan 9, 2018 9:54:28 GMT -5
JDM is a better option than Bruce, going forward. Darvish or Arrietta would have a better impact for the team going forward.
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Post by p23w on Jan 8, 2018 19:19:10 GMT -5
Thank god If you believed that this was about a direct comparison of Brentz to Judge or Ortiz than you have been out of the thrust if my metaphor from the git go.
[ /quote]That's not what a metaphor is. A metaphor is if you were like "that Bryce Brentz is a real moose" and then I brought in his lack of antlers and you were all "I didn't mean an actual moose." You brought up the comparison, and then, when challenged, you compared them as baseball players again. You can't shield your argument from criticism by sticking an "I'm not comparing them, but" before doing exactly that.
23 hours ago jimed14 said: I keep laughing at the thought of Brentz being the next JDM late bloomer. "Think of Bryce as the next Aaron Judge then. Or C(K)hris Davis, or the next coming of David Ortiz" was my reply
Your interpretation is/was lacking from the git go. Brentz has had better offensive minor league seasons than any of the hitters I mentioned with the possible exception of Chris Davis. Age is factor that you have injected into this discussion. To draw the conclusion that Brentz will have equivalent major league results was your perogative but totally missed the context of the discussion.
Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/4239/2018-red-sox-roster-building#ixzz53dkVOVbYYou should begin by not using a single postseason series to compare pitching staffs. [/b]
I could just as easily made it the closing point to my argument. The fact that the last TWO post seasons saw this team win only one game; does that give the point more credence? And two seasons ago we had a true anchor in the line up. Perhaps the fact that the RS added a pitcher (Sale) to the 2016 team is the reason for the improved post season performance, and not the fact that we lost David Ortiz. Since you have posted in response to not posting on this topic perhaps you will do the courtesy of starting a new thread with a clear focus as to how you believe the RS can win the division and.or advance in the playoffs.
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Post by p23w on Jan 8, 2018 15:28:43 GMT -5
Brentz hit 31 homers in the minors, not 38.
Brentz hit 7 hr in 2017 for the Mexican League. The 38 Hr in 2017 came in 600 AB's.
Also, Judge had a 50 homer season in the majors before he was Brentz's age. Ortiz had two 40-homer seasons in the majors. You don't get to throw out major league stats when comparing a minor leaguer who is older than the major leaguers you are comparing him to. Rick Lancelotti hit more minor league homers than Ken Griffey Jr.. Brentz got to hit those homers in the minors that Ortiz and Judge didn't because Ortiz and Judge were good enough to be called up to the majors before their fifth full season in Triple-A.
Circumstances have much to do with when, and why players get called up. Judge earned his way onto the starting day roster because the Yankees had a weak OF. Brentz had every bit as good a minor league season as Judge at age 22 (Brentz hit 30 Hr's Judge hit 20) but the stars did not align.
Also, Brentz is basically as bad as Martinez defensively. The range is better-ish, but his gaffes are brutal. Brentz's arm is probably stronger than Benintendi's, but it isn't as accurate and his release isn't as quick.
I would disagree but as you say the difference is marginal. Still, I think Brentz is the better defender (although the choice is not either/or unless Rameirez is DFA';d or traded,)
Also, too, I don't understand the logic that the Red Sox should focus on improving on the part of the team that is already better than the Yankees, rather than improving the team's obvious weakness. Because the Red Sox offense won't be better than the Yankees offense, they shouldn't close that gap? Instead they need to spend far more money to make much more marginal improvements to that thing they are already better than the Yankees at? The idea that you only improve your team by making what it does best even better is... not a traditional view, nor is it one that's easy to back up.
If you wish to believe that the post regular season Red Sox pitching was better than the Yankees, I don't know where to begin. If you wish to hang your hat on the fact that the 2017 Red Sox pitching staff was 2 games better than the Yankees pitching staff over the course of the regular season, OK. If you account for the 8-11 record the RS had versus the NYY on the basis of a lesser offense as opposed to a better pitching staff, how would you suggest we reverse this fact for a team that added the NL MVP (a RHH) and MLB home run hitter against a team whose #1-3 SP are LH? The way to beat the NYY in 2018 is to extend your perception of wherein lies our strength, namely pitching. Specifically a top of the rotation RHSP. Adding JDM is not going to vault the RS offense past the Stanton NYY. The narrative, the hype is pundit generated. The pressure on the (young) players follows the narrative. If you want poor Cora to be another Francona give him what he (the team) really needs, sign Arrietta or Darvish.
EDIT: This is my third post pointing out that Bryce Brentz isn't Aaron Judge or David Ortiz, which seems like a deeper examination than the subject deserves. That's going to be my last statement on that totally absurd argument. I wouldn't predict the #1 prospect in baseball to have Ortiz's offensive career or have a best season of his career as good as Judge's 2017.
Thank god If you believed that this was about a direct comparison of Brentz to Judge or Ortiz than you have been out of the thrust if my metaphor from the git go.
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Post by p23w on Jan 8, 2018 14:31:58 GMT -5
Trying to find a reasonable projection for Bryce Brentz, I'd peg his reasonable 1% peak outcome probably at peak Brandon Moss, hitting .230-.250 with 25-30 bombs. That's if everything goes literally perfectly. More likely, he's a nice fourth outfielder who's a poor fielder but you can deal with by moving Benintendi around. Perhaps even more likely, Brentz loses the adjustment he made last year and turns back into a pumpkin. Brentz is 29 this coming season. Let's look at the other players mentioned here entering their age 29 seasons: JD Martinez: wRC+ of 154, 136, 141 the prior three seasons Aaron Judge: He just finished second in the MVP voting at age 25, so he's got three more years before we can comp him to Brentz. Chris Davis: Was coming off a down season, having hit 53 home runs in his age 27 season. Prior 3 years wRC+: 94, 168, 121 Khris Davis: Was coming off a 42 HR season, with wRC+ in the prior three seasons of 121, 122, 107. David Ortiz: Was coming off two top-five finishes in the MVP voting and had already cemented himself in the annals of Boston sports history by leading the Red Sox to a World Series win the previous season. wRC+ of 147, 145, 118.
The "age" narrative is not relevant at this point in time.
The point: Brentz is already past being a late bloomer. There's a slim chance he turns into a productive MLB regular, but it's a slim one. You don't see guys change their hitting mechanics at age 29 and turn into a middle of the order hitter after being a poor AAA hitter for more than two seasons.
I could postulate that Brentz "found himself" for a second time.... or that he has proven not to be overwhelmed by Major League pitching in his previous 25 man roster appearances, or that he had injuries, or that his odyssey through AA/AAA has come at a time when the team has seen 3 different GM's, each with a different agenda. None of this is relevant as to why Bryce can or cannot contribute in 2018. The only way Brentz is a fallback for Martinez, imo, is if the Red Sox miss out on Martinez and decide to go in a completely different direction and sign Darvish or Arrieta or something crazy and build the best pitching staff in baseball, in which case Brentz will get to compete for the fourth outfielder spot with other cheap guys they have and/or bring in. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think it's unreasonable to hope Brentz turns into a guy that can anchor a lineup.
Would Darvish or Arrieta sign for less (AAV) than Price? I would love for this to be the case, and would laud DD if he could make it so. I share your doubt that Brentz could anchor the 2018 line up, but I've yet to see a 4rth OFer that could or did.
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Post by p23w on Jan 8, 2018 13:57:33 GMT -5
Think of Bryce as the next Aaron Judge then. Or C(K)hris Davis, or the next coming of David Ortiz. Myself, I can't remember the last time a member of this organization hit 38 home runs in one year, at any level. Point being NOT signing JDM is NOT the end of the world (or the 2018 season) as some would have you believe. Bryce Brentz can definitely contribute. He is not the next Aaron Judge, and he's not the next David Ortiz, and he is not a reason to be okay with missing out on JD Martinez. There is a massive gap there, and thinking a 29-year-old who took five years to graduate from Triple-A is going to be an All-Star/MVP/Hall-of-Fame level performer takes some very serious wishcasting.
Aaron Judge never hit more than 20 Hrs in the minors. Ortiz "best" minor league season produced 31 Hrs. Brentz hit 38. I don't care about his age, particularly in comparison to JDM. (whose top Hr season in the minors was 18). Brentz has hit 30+ twice. Brentz is NOT a replacement for JDM. He is an intriguing 4rth OFer option. His defense is far superior to JDM. His arm is probably as good as Bennitendi's. Comparing 5+ years of JDM to 1(+) years of Brentz is illogical. Like it or not the Yankees are the team to beat. Their offense is better than the RS. JDM may close that gap, but but does not make the Sox offense better than the NYY offense. The path to beating the Yankees in 2018 lies with the pitching staff. IMO, the Red Sox need to strike first and sign a free agent RH SP. You know the Yankees will sign or trade for a SP. Hopefully the RS can gain an advantage over NY with pitching because it ain't happening with the bats.
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Post by p23w on Jan 8, 2018 13:27:05 GMT -5
No. My point is that the sky does not Fall if JDM does not sign with the RS for 2018. If JDM does not sign, then I am willing to give Brentz ST AB's and following a promising showing a spot on the 25 man roster. Signing JDM is not necessarily a panacea for what I perceive to be flaws on this team, albeit such a signing would bolster the offense no doubt. What do you think the biggest flaw on this team is then? James Dunne posted exactly what I was thinking. Brentz is hardly a consolation prize if they miss out on JDM. JDM is a true middle of the order hitter. The Red Sox lack power. He can provide power as his slugging average attests to, but he's not just a power hitter. He's truly a hitter. He's not Joey Gallo who hits homers or nothing. Martinez is a true middle of the order hitter, one they need since they have not replaced David Ortiz. All this said, I do think the offense will be better even if they stood pat, but I don't think it will be good enough given the offense of other teams in the league. The only way it would be is if the Red Sox pitching and defense is much superior to the other teams with powerful offenses. While I think the offense will be better with the potential to be much better if they get JDM, I worry that pitching might show itself to be the achilles heel of this team next year.
I concur. Right now, you look on paper and you have Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, and E-Rod once he's healthy and a viable #6 starter in Wright who was an all-star before a freak injury. You can also see reasonably good depth options in Johnson if he can make the roster, Velazquez, and Beeks.
I look at IP, and after the trade deadline NP. I'm not sure I like what I see. Personally I'd rather see a 180+IP top of the rotation starter added to this mix. You look at it and the last thing you need is a starter, yet it wouldn't surprise me if Sale wasn't as good next year, Price had health issues, Pomeranz regresses, and Porcello was just mediocre. Who knows if E-Rod will still have issues? I'm not saying the Red Sox SHOULD have problems in the rotation. I'm just saying I have a weird feeling that the starting pitching won't be what we hope it is. The bullpen is a concern for me. Kimbrel was awesome last year but I don't think he'll be as bulletproof as he was last season. The bridge to Kimbrel is a question mark. Will Smith be healthy and effective? Same question but with less certainty for Thornburg. Is Kelly still going to be Kelly? Will Workman be able to put a whole healthy season together? Who are trustworthy lefties?
And yet Reed is still out there, and is about as proven commodity (all things considered) as exists in this market.
So I look at the team and think that JD Martinez is exactly what they need, and that either Watson or Duensing could help the bullpen and that they need to hope that Smith steps forward and runs with the 8th inning bridge to Kimbrel job.
If Hanley does a Panda then this team is in trouble. If not then JDM is not imperative. Brentz gets his chance to spell Bennie and/or JBJ against lefties.
But it wouldn't shock me if pitching winds up being the issue with next year's team. Again, not a lot to go on other than hunches, which is not a good reason to drop a bunch of money on Cobb or Darvish and not sign a needed bat like JDM.
Keep in mind that the Yankees pushed the Stros to the limit with their pitchers. The Sox could have pushed the Stros to a 5th game with better pitching.
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Post by p23w on Jan 7, 2018 21:13:33 GMT -5
Think of Bryce as the next Aaron Judge then. Or C(K)hris Davis, or the next coming of David Ortiz. Myself, I can't remember the last time a member of this organization hit 38 home runs in one year, at any level. Point being NOT signing JDM is NOT the end of the world (or the 2018 season) as some would have you believe. Are you really saying that it's cool if JDM doesn't sign and Brentz winds up getting his ABs? Are you saying that they're comparable offensively?No. My point is that the sky does not Fall if JDM does not sign with the RS for 2018. If JDM does not sign, then I am willing to give Brentz ST AB's and following a promising showing a spot on the 25 man roster. Signing JDM is not necessarily a panacea for what I perceive to be flaws on this team, albeit such a signing would bolster the offense no doubt.
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Post by p23w on Jan 7, 2018 20:58:12 GMT -5
What is the opinions of this forum, about DD hard-lining a potential future new player for the Sox? Does JDM end up with a bitter taste that he wasn't properly rewarded, if he ends up with the Sox for a contract that isn't lengthy enough, or large enough? Is it worth it for the front office to maintain such a hard-line stance with someone they're trying to recruit? Does he end up with a little less motivation cause he's unhappy? Is it worth the extra money to roll out the red carpet for someone you're trying to recruit? Or is the huge, rumored 5 yr contract the Sox are offering more than enough? Doubtful concerning the bitter taste. DD has a history with JDM (and whether he [JDM] realizes it or not his tutelage under Miguel Cabrera has much to do with recent success). The only transactional "concern" that is of potential trouble to this fan is the connection JDM made with his Diamondback teammates from last year. Since JDM's non player mentor is now Scott Boras, it is doubtful that JDM would react with less motivation. Another sizable contract (or significant "pillow" contracts as a DH) could follow the successful conclusion of a 5 year contract. My only question is whether this 5 year contract is signed with his current team, or the Red Sox. The Red Sox may need to go longer to ward off competition from a National League team. I would be stunned if JDM signed with any other American League team.
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Post by p23w on Jan 7, 2018 20:34:51 GMT -5
All this talk about JDM or some other power hitters. Who's playing 2nd base until Pedroia returns. Hernandez Marerro Holt? Hernandez was out all of 2017, Marerro was a great but didn't hit. Holt was out with a concussion then vertigo and was not the same player. Esteban Quiroz? Can a player from the Mexican league go directly to the majors? Do they wait to see if Brandon Phillips or Chase Utley are still available and sign them to a contract with an opt out,? There are plenty of bodies and competition to keep 2nd base warm until Pedroia's return. I'd be more concerned about a 4rth and 5th starter at the start of the season, and who is going to lock down the 8th inning.
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