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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2014 12:34:29 GMT -5
My concerns over this deal are in regards to the precedent of 12 or 13 years on a deal. Do other young stars now take this as the standard negotiating line? Two or three years from now are we looking at 12 year deals or even 9 or 10 year deals for Bogaerts or Betts? Granted Stanton is a top five bat and such deals should be reserved for the elite but agents know how to play the game and Boras is certainly paying attention.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 11, 2014 22:36:38 GMT -5
Jeff Passan ?@jeffpassan Execs think 19-year-old Cuban Yoan Moncada could get $30-40M -- which would really be $60-80M. Column on the phenom: yhoo.it/14aThcY First speculation I've seen about what Moncada could get. Wow! So 30 to 40 before the overage tax. I'd guessed closer to 30 mil with the tax. Still if he is a legitimate 1-1 type close to the mold of a Harper upside it is very fathomable.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 11, 2014 22:31:35 GMT -5
Here is a post of mine from Nov 1 in the trade forum. Seems Chicago is thinking similarly. If Washington is looking for mostly bats I have to admit Theo definitely has more to offer but if they would like an arm in return I'd say Boston would have a shot. It does all come down to having a negotiating window to work out an extension because without securing Zimmerman long term it's very risky for the price.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 11, 2014 19:34:07 GMT -5
There isn't nearly the drop-off in hitting by righthand batters against righthand pitchers as there is among lefthand hitters against lefthand pitchers. Here are the OPS of everyone except Castillo, who had so few ABs, the stats are meaningless. Xander RH:.610, LH: .786 Pedroia RH: .797, LH: .727 Napoli RH: .826, LH: .911 Vazquez RH: .638, LH: .539 Hanley RH .860, LH: .913 Betts .798, LH: .786 Cespedes .770, LH: .805 Average RH: .757 LH: .781 Pedroia, Cespedes and Vazquez have higher BAs against RH pitchers than they do against LHPs. Bogaerts has the largest drop in BA against RHPs. My conclusion is that while it would be slightly advantageous to add another LH bat, not doing it will not have a statistically significant effect on team performance. Additionally the team will have RH bats in Napoli, Cespedes and Victorino entering free agency after this season. The team also is likely to add a switch hitting C at some point next season in Swihart and quite likely a LH hitting 3B/LF in Cecchini if not this season. There is also Travis Shaw who may be able to serve the roster in some capacity. The lineup may lean a bit RH heavy this season but as danr points out its not the matchup issue it would seem. You still have Nava and Cecchini who can offer platoon options, day off replacements or pinch hit AB's. It would still likely be very prudent to add a LHer or switch hitter either via trade or via FA next offseason. If you consider Nava or Cecchini as more full time LF options then the main position to add a LH hitter is 1B to replace Napoli considering we are projecting under this scenario for 3B(Hanley), SS (Bogaerts), 2B (Pedroia), CF (Castillo) and RF (Betts) to be locked down longer term by RH bats and C (Swihart) to be locked down long term by a switch hitting bat. However the only substantial but questionable LH 1B bat in FA next offseason is Chris Davis of the Orioles. As for trade is it really possible to land a Hosmer or Belt via trade? Maybe not. It's likely the front office has considered the future options and believes that landing a LH 3B this season allowing more possibilities to fill the 1B and/or LF positions next offseason is a better alternative. But I don't think they've ruled it out as an option. For example sign Hanley at 3B and land a lefty in Heyward to play RF moving Betts to LF and giving Nava more time at 1B and 4th OFer.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 8, 2014 15:28:47 GMT -5
I am allllll in on Moncada but am worried the Yankees will be too. Yes, me too. Problem is I'm not yet sure how I define all in. Angels spent with tax approximately 15 mil for Baldoquin. If he's a better prospect than Devers and would be 1-1 in the amateur draft an early guess including the tax is that I'd be willing to spend 30 mil considering the number of years of control the team would hold and the perceived ceiling.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 6, 2014 12:01:24 GMT -5
Interesting line from this piece. While this speaks to the willingness to offer the higher deals to minor league free agents it just as much speaks to their willingness to outspend on the international market. They will no doubt be hard to beat on Moncada if he becomes available this international signing period. It will make the Angels high dollar signing seem a pittance.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 16:23:31 GMT -5
Doesn't help that he is a right handed bat either. The team really does need a lefty which would lead to the reason Sandoval has been suggested as the main target. I agree we need more LHH in the lineup, and I would concede my scenario is not likely but a healthy Hanley would probably hit RHP about as good as any LHH we could pick up for 3B in 2015. He does have a career .860 ops vs. RHP....FWIW. Just doing a basic comparison of Sandoval vs Hanley Ramirez starting in 2012 per FanGraphs: 2012: Sandoval 118 wrc+, 2.6 war Ramirez 106 wrc+, 2.9 war 2013: Sandoval 116 wrc+, 2.3 war Ramirez 191 wrc+, 5.0 war 2014: Sandoval 111 wrc+, 3.0 war Ramirez 135 wrc+, 3.4 war
2015 Steamer: Sandoval 120 wrc+, 3.8 war Ramirez 126 wrc+, 3.4 war
You could make the argument that Ramirez is the more valuable of the two given past performance and the position versatility of Hanley considering 3B and SS possibilities. Hanley is 2 years older and Pablo is the more consistent from year to year but with what may be a lower ceiling. Hanley has missed games the past few seasons and this could be a red flag. Still part of me thinks if Hanley were to move to 3rd full time it would be better for his overall game. Don't you think that if Pablo can get 5 years and 100 mil it is well within the projections for Hanley who is still only 30. I like the idea of Hanley but I think Ben would have to get creative and more active to add additional left handed hitting to the roster via trade.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 15:42:37 GMT -5
It would surely be a budget breaker but if you could convince Hanley to play 3B that would be a nice offensive bat to put in the order and not a negative defensively. I really have no idea what his market is going to look like and what the expectations on salary he has are though. I imagine it would be nice hitting in Fenway after years in LA. What do you think his eventual contract looks like in years and numbers on this market? As guides points out or rather Klaw points out first, McCarthy could be a very interesting second starter to land especially with the no draft pick attachment but I bet NY makes a push to sign him to a multiyear deal. In other news I am really starting to dread the idea that Boston ends up with Shields. I know he is an effective starter that logs innings and has value but as mentioned doesn't it feel like he is going to be a large overpay? I'd rather just bite the bullet and land either of Scherzer or Lester. I actually think the Boston roster and finances are set up to handle one large slightly overvalued contract for the right player. The only way I'd ever consider Ramirez at 3B in Boston would be on a 1 year deal, and I have zero insight into how plausible that is. If I had to guess I'd say it's realistic but highly unlikely. Here's why it could work. He's a horrible defensive SS, statistically the worst in the league last year and his health is iffy. If he could play 3B for one year, play a decent 3B to better, and stay healthy with good offensive he'd likely be in line for a bigger payday next year. Beltre 2.0 except you know....HanRam is moving off short. Also there is a better to likely chance of getting that draft pick right back. This would also allow us to evaluate Cecchini/Middlebrooks in Pawtucket longer and punt the long term solution at 3B another year. Doesn't help that he is a right handed bat either. The team really does need a lefty which would lead to the reason Sandoval has been suggested as the main target.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 14:53:35 GMT -5
It would surely be a budget breaker but if you could convince Hanley to play 3B that would be a nice offensive bat to put in the order and not a negative defensively. I really have no idea what his market is going to look like and what the expectations on salary he has are though. I imagine it would be nice hitting in Fenway after years in LA. What do you think his eventual contract looks like in years and numbers on this market?
As guides points out or rather Klaw points out first, McCarthy could be a very interesting second starter to land especially with the no draft pick attachment but I bet NY makes a push to sign him to a multiyear deal. In other news I am really starting to dread the idea that Boston ends up with Shields. I know he is an effective starter that logs innings and has value but as mentioned doesn't it feel like he is going to be a large overpay? I'd rather just bite the bullet and land either of Scherzer or Lester. I actually think the Boston roster and finances are set up to handle one large slightly overvalued contract for the right player.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 4, 2014 14:44:00 GMT -5
Out of nowhere (at least to my knowledge), the Angels sign Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin for $8MM bonus, obviously shattering their international bonus pool limit. If you're like me, first you're thinking 'Who is Roberto Baldoquin?' Then you're thinking 'Wow, Moncada is going to get a huge bonus.' Then you're thinking, 'Wait are other teams willing to blow past their bonus pools in order to nab this guy?' Yes, why yes they probably are. Bidding might get out of control for Moncada, I'm not really sure what to expect now. Considering LA had a $2.383 mil international bonus pool and if they have signed no one else prior this is essentially a $13.617 mil signing taking into account the 100% tax on all overage.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2014 22:41:53 GMT -5
Here are a few buy-low bullpen arms that have piqued my interest at a casual glance: Sergio Santos, Matt Belisle, Kyuji Fujikawa, Jose Veras, Jamey Wright, Ronald Belisario, Casey Janssen. Unfortunately, the crop of lefties is pretty meh after Miller. The likes of Joe Thatcher, Neal Cotts, Tom Gorzelanny, and Zach Duke are decent enough, but they're more LOOGY-types than lefty setup men. Maybe they can get Breslow on a minor league/league-minimum deal. Hochevar as a reliever? I like him for sure. I'm intrigued as well. There is the inherent risk coming off the Tommy John but the surgery was performed in late March and the team should be able to get a definite read on how he is throwing before spring. He is an ideal buy low on a two year deal. While he is older than Andrew Miller he offers a similar profile and he was effective vs both lefties and righties but not to the degree that Miller was. He throws a four seam FB that clocked in up to 96 pre surgery with a cutter that missed bats at around 91. He adds a curve/knuckle curve and a sinker in addition. Depends on the value of the deal but he does appear to offer some upside vs other retreads. He is the type of pickup who in returning to form offers value for the dollar and is a candidate to be flipped at the deadline or in the off season for a prospect as an alternative.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 1, 2014 22:10:27 GMT -5
I have no objections to such a trade dependent upon who the targeted return is expected to be. For me this is a very limited group. In fact in regards to starters I personally only have one true target and that is Jordan Zimmerman. I'd have no issue swapping one of Owens, Rodriguez, Johnson along with Marrero and a pitcher like Ranaudo, Workman, Mercedes or Noe Ramirez. I'd also like to have a window to work out an extension first before consummating the deal. I agree trading for players with one season remaining is the easiest group to target as teams understand it is the last point they can obtain a return value much greater than a QO pick. And Zimmerman is the best of this bunch to me.
Zimmerman is entering the year with less control than Samardzija had before he was traded along with Jason Hammel for Russell and McKinney. I'd like to think that sets the ceiling for what should be expected. As for a floor we obviously look at the Lester trade which returned a year of Cespedes and a comp B draft pick. The cost for obvious reasons should be expected to be closer to the Samardzija deal considering it is a full year vs a half year left on the deal and he is also two years younger then Lester and one year younger than Samardzija making him a more attractive long term extension candidate. He is also over a full two years younger than Cole Hamels. I think Washington would consider it having both young starters in Gioloto and Meyer in the system to go along with whichever top arm they get in this deal to fill the hole the loss of Zimmerman creates long term and obtain Marrero who can play SS, if Desmond isn't resigned, or one of the two could fill their 2B opening while Washington also adds what would amount to a cost controlled relief arm to complete the deal. It would allow the Nationals to free his current 16.5 mil salary and future dollars towards extending any of Strasburg, Fister, Desmond or signing a free agent 1B.
I'd have no problem locking up Zimmerman by adding an additional 5 or 6 years to the deal taking it into the 2020 or 2021 season at 24 to 25 mil per year. He would make an ideal complement in a 1/2 punch to a starter like Lester or even Shields creating a stability at the front end of the rotation that balances the youth and inexperience at the back end of the rotation. Zimmerman has also just entered his prime years and has a relatively light workload, 892 innings, on his arm for a 28 year old.
Essentially if I am parting with multiple prospects in which at least two are top 10 in our system I'm going to be extremely picky about who they're being moved for. It would need to be a player who is currently under 4 plus years of control or one who we are certain is open to being extended for 4 or more additional years. This way while they are building for 2015 they are also locking in a starter for 2016 and beyond. Cole Hamels is an acceptable alternative but I believe the cost would be much greater. As for bats there are numerous targets I like including Stanton and Seager but whether they would ever be available is another question in addition to how much more the cost would be.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 15, 2014 15:51:19 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Oct 6, 2014 18:43:47 GMT -5
I don't see the need to trade for Hamels. There are many quality alternatives requiring the loss of no prospects. This in itself should reduce the price of acquisition but not enough to pull the trigger. For me I target Lester this offseason in addition to a mid tier option who hopefully has no QO and follow it up with Jordan Zimmerman the next offseason if he reaches FA. Two years after that I hope we have the opportunity to land Otani. Fill in the blanks with the likes of Kelly, De La Rosa, Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez or Johnson.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 6, 2014 13:40:27 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Oct 5, 2014 19:37:38 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Oct 3, 2014 15:05:54 GMT -5
Arbitrary to me should be defined as "any team making the playoffs either by winning the division or via wildcard." If you miss out you have the option to sign a free agent with a protected pick. If you make the playoffs you would lose your first rounder. Price of success. Problem here is a team who finishes 18th worst loses less actual value assets then a team who finishes 5th worst which is why I believe the cutoff has been the top 10. Maybe a better cutoff is a moving one. Say any team finishing below .500?
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Post by taftreign on Oct 3, 2014 14:58:31 GMT -5
For the life of me I can't comprehend why Detroit continues to dabble at fixing their pen vs getting the pieces they really need. Did anyone think an old Nathan and Joba were really going to be the answer? I have to agree with Pedro here that they should go heavy after Miller and one other high end piece even if it means trading a prospect to do it. Their window is already closing with Scherzer hitting free agency, Fister inexplicably traded prior and Hunter, Cabrera and Verlander all one more year older.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 2, 2014 15:04:08 GMT -5
Not sure it's been discussed but isn't it possible Martin gets a QO. If he is in demand as a top defensive catcher and has at least an average bat for a catcher doesn't it seem possible if not probable. Particularly when considering the catcher needy teams of which more than one has a protected pick. 1 year at 15 mil is a bit high on AAV for Pittsburgh but I could see management taking the risk since it is only a one year commitment and they may be able to afterward work out a more affordable AAV over a greater length of years. I'm not in favor of signing him due to the length of contract required and the quality of other options already on the 40 man And a QO would only cement my thinking.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 26, 2014 13:42:07 GMT -5
And I have no quibbles with him DHing every game either. If he desires his last game at SS to be in Yankee Stadium it's his right at this point.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 24, 2014 20:20:06 GMT -5
I wonder how Dave Stewart will do as GM and if he will try to make a splash trade to put his stamp on the franchise. Sounds like John Hart will be the guy in Atlanta. Probably trade for Matt Kemp! After all he does have the inside scoop.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 16, 2014 23:07:55 GMT -5
The end result may have been a loss but it was to a lineup with 6 players 28 years or older and 2 that are 25. Omaha is a veteran team which tends to play well in the playoffs.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 13, 2014 19:21:43 GMT -5
Betts at 2b. I'd expected we could see some of this with Castillo set to join the Red Sox mid next week to make room in the OF in joint with Pedroia's season end. I could see even splits between Weeks and him for the remainder of the season while moving to the OF for most of the rest.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 13, 2014 10:23:06 GMT -5
It's really astounding to look at the standings this morning and see the Angels 11 games in front of Oakland. This after adding both Shark and Lester. Almost as astounding is the only team with a larger divisional lead being Baltimore outpacing the division by 11.5.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 11, 2014 15:02:17 GMT -5
The Just Missing section includes Nick Shumpert, son of Terry Shumpert and cousin of the one and only Mookie Betts. He will be desired by many here for no reason other than his connection to Mookie.
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