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Post by taftreign on Sept 10, 2014 13:27:43 GMT -5
They don't play the same position? I would assume the thought he has is Mookie at 2B and JBJ in CF? But Cherington doesn't seem too inclined to play Mookie anywhere other than the OF at this point At the point Rusney Castillo is promoted to the bigs you do wonder how playing time will break down. Something has to give and maybe Mookie plays a day or two a week at 2b or the Cespedes, Betts, Holt and Craig group will each start to get extra time off to absorb Castillos playing time.
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Post by taftreign on Sept 1, 2014 19:15:48 GMT -5
Notable August minor league hitting stats (Min 50 PA) Reg. season minor league stats only. Margot (A/A+) 0.396/0.432/0.634/1.066 4HR 10SB Chavis (ROK) 0.372/0.430/0.590/1.020 1HR 4SB Acosta (ROK) 0.390/0.446/0.525/0.972 0HR 3SBBetts (AAA) 0.375/0.444/ 0.521/0.965 0HR 3SB Asuaje (A+) 0.342/0.417/0.541/0.958 3HR 0SB De La Cruz (AA) 0.337/0.402/0.547/0.949 4HR 2SB Blair (A+/AA) 0.274/ 0.395/0.532/0.927 3HR 0SB Cecchini (AAA) 0.333/0.413/0.500/0.913 2HR 1SB Johnson (A+) 0.327/0.422/0.482/0.904 2HR A little surprised Acosta hasn't been able to break back into the top 60 prospects as an 18 year old who won't turn 19 until June 2015 and has shown something with the bat in the GCL. He's 10 months younger than Chavis and 9 months younger than Ockimey. Offensively he's not much different than Guerra who is also around 9 months older and ranks 26. Obviously the defensive difference accounts for some of the higher ranking but seems to be too large a difference. What is it about the scouting report that accounts for his current standing?
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Post by taftreign on Aug 26, 2014 22:46:05 GMT -5
Ben Cherington is in Frederick. My guess is he was excited that Chih-Hsien Chiang is starting for Frederick. I was at the game and noticed Cherington as well. He was sitting with two others who if I had to guess appeared to be Jared Banner, Asst Director of Player Personnel, and Duncan Webb, Asst Director of Player Development. Is it common for the front office to get a first hand look at each minor league team to end the season for the purposes of off season planning, ie potential trades or setting the tentative minor league assignments entering a new season, or is it most likely they are present with attention to one or two specific players?
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Post by taftreign on Aug 22, 2014 10:30:42 GMT -5
First I've seen the 7th year mentioned. Remember when the Red Sox had very few options in the outfield to start the year with questions on the future and then Betts started playing some center. Next here come Cespedes and Craig and now enter Castillo. Now it's what the heck are they going to do with all these outfielders.
Add: One example why drafting for need is mostly a ridiculous idea.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 21, 2014 23:12:54 GMT -5
Ed Rodriguez since we got him: 24.1 IP, 18 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 28 K After each additional start it only increases my belief that this could be the best trade Ben has ever and may ever make. Now in Baltimore's defense if Miller anchors the Oriole bullpen into a World Series appearance and/or win then it shouldn't matter nearly as much to their fans what was given up.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 21, 2014 11:35:59 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Aug 21, 2014 11:29:57 GMT -5
Losing Grady Sizemore was no loss. LOL, that's probably a true statement. ADD: I do want to add that I hope that Grady continues having success and finds himself a contract for 2015 and beyond. If you can't admire just getting back to the majors after all he's been through, there's something wrong with you. Based on Amaro's track record he will probably be convinced he should give Sizemore 3 years and 27 mil this offseason.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 21, 2014 0:15:04 GMT -5
I think the 2015 Red Sox rotation is currently unknowable. The main job of Ben and his team is to figure it out this offseason and spring training. The organization has approx. $55mm to spend under the luxury tax threshold, according to my calculations, and mainly needs pitching and a third baseman (under the assumption that Bogaerts should be given every opportunity to retain the SS job and that Holt fits best as a 10th man). I don't see the Red Sox signing either Lester or Scherzer. It would be a great story if Lester re-signs with the team but I just don't believe this story will have a happy ending for us. I could see the Red Sox being a player for Shields, assuming they have a protected pick. I also could see the Red Sox being a player for Maeda (Japanese 26YO pitcher). I agree it appears the favorite is the field vs Boston right now. Looking at 2015 the team does have approximately 55 million to spend. However looking beyond we see, according to Cot's, committed salaries of 22.37 mil in 2016, 26.125 mil in 2017, 17.125 mil in 2018 and 15.125 mil in 2019. Question is where will Boston spend it's money? There are few extension candidates on the roster for the next three to four seasons. You can argue Napoli and Cespedes. Buchholz isn't currently looking like an extension candidate and the young players; Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, Vazquez, De La Rosa etc... have numerous years of control before really needing to worry about extensions. The free agent market has been lean with no improvement in site. Adding payroll through trade is one method but there is a finite number of prospects to obtain worthy talent.
There is uncertainty but not improbability the team will have cost control at:
C - Vazquez or Swihart SS - Bogaerts or Marrero 3B - Cecchini or Middlebrooks OF- Betts or Bradley or longer term Margot SP - Kelly, De La Rosa, Webster, Workman, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Escobar, Rodriguez, etc . . RP - any of the above plus a number of other minor league arms
In addition a somewhat team friendly deal at 2B with Pedroia and maybe soon a rather affordable AAV in the OF by signing Castillo. There are still weaknesses at 1B and potentially 3B in addition to a front of the rotation starter but 100 million of salary flexibility come 2016 is one potential reality.
I'd argue there are very few teams in the MLB set up to be aggressive on Lester better than Boston (w/ the Cubs in this category as well). I know the philosophy has been counter to such a signing but this roster construction can absorb one or two risky signings including a year or two of sunk salary cost. Even as the arb salaries rise exceeding the luxury threshold is a small likelihood in the near future years. Take into account the new CBA may increase the threshold beyond its current constitution.
Perhaps the front office continues the current course limiting contract length and AAV in relation but there are increasingly less avenues to value spend. Clearly extending your existing young players is number one. Trading for a 25 to 28 year old and following it up with an extension is an option but it limits the ability to do the first option. Signing free agents on a limited market once the QO is altered is not going to be for value as competition adds years and dollars. Signing internationally although risky may be the new inefficiency however it appears the market is catching up. If the team is comfortable approaching the luxury tax then there is a portion of the payroll that supports a 6 year Lester deal and a few other similar deals as long as said deals are staggered to avoid multiple players declines coinciding during the last two contract years creating "dead" cap space. For example sign Lester to a 6 year deal from '15 to '20, followed by another such deal to whichever worthy player from '17 to '22 and again to another worthy player from '19 to '24 in which the Lester deal will clear and the cycle can continue. Essentially you have earmarked a portion, say 25 million to 30 million, of payroll each season to riskier investment in which the expected outcome may only be a 40% return but could very well be 70% with the possibility and hope the lost value is made up for in the first four years of the extension.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 20, 2014 21:53:49 GMT -5
Matt Barnes drops the ERA under 4.00, now at 3.89. Return the praise and hype. Next year will be the year everyone will be calling for Owens and Barnes to join the MLB rotation if not traded before. Very encouraging end of season for Barnes following course with his 2013 end of season. Looking forward to him actually starting strong next season showing consistent production throughout.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 18, 2014 13:40:44 GMT -5
Yeah I've got to say, I don't understand our involvement with Castillo unless he can play 3B. CF should be a competition between Mookie and JBJ with the odd man out being dealt this offseason. That still leaves us with Craig, Nava, Cespedes, Vic, and technically Holt. I dunno, if Castillo is a star in their eyes who can't be passed upon, then go for it, but I don't see where he fits in unless he can play 3B. The supposed top two teams to land him are NYY and Boston. NYY already has Ellsbury and Gardner so they don't necessarily need a CF either. Interesting to see how things shake out.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 3, 2014 22:38:27 GMT -5
Question. If you were to package JBJr, Workman and Middlebrooks together what do you think a return could be? This would presume Betts in CF and lead off, Holt at 3rd with maybe Cecchini as a fallback, a FA like Headley or Sandoval or a return in this trade and Ranaudo or Webster taking the swing role between the pen and fill in starter. Total speculation but I'd consider moving all three if the return is a multi year controlled All Star type Major Leaguer. Tough to trade that CF defense but it does seem like it's going to be Jackie or Betts and I'm a bit torn on which I want to part with if either. I'd love to have a greater sample for Betts CF defensive metrics to know how much drop off there is defensively but I'm betting there is more offense in Betts bat.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 3, 2014 22:04:01 GMT -5
Let's hope Scherzer is higher up Chicago's list and Lester really wants to come back to Boston.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 3, 2014 21:43:20 GMT -5
Going off the possibility Lester is resigned as the #1 I would put my top two of that group as Cueto and Zimmerman. I feel very comfortable with Cueto or Zimmerman as a #2. All three are FAs after the end of the 2015 season. I would assume Cueto is the hardest get and the most likely extended with their current team but both would cost less prospects than Hamels. I'd consider Zimmerman the most probable as Washington is fairly stacked in pitching depth with Strasburg, Gonzalez, Fister and Roarke with Cole almost ready to take a roster spot and Gioloto only a few years away. Zimmermans salary jumps to 16.5 mil next year before free agency. I think you could get Zimmerman on a 5 year extension with the possibility of going 6 as he is a young 28 year old and he has solid interleague numbers including against the AL East. Trade for him and extend a 5 and 105 or 6 and 120. Spitballing here but maybe a Marrero (SS or 2B option) and a AA or AAA arm like Ranaudo or Escobar. Maybe a C prospect added in. Just my 2 cents.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 10:46:34 GMT -5
I'm of the belief that Detroit has moved on from Scherzer and will offer Price his money. I pass on Scherzer on the market because his asking price will be higher. I'll give Lester a sixth year before spending on another top pitcher and lose a draft pick. As for the #2 rotation spot I'm checking in on Hamels or Cueto etc. this off season and see what there price of acquisition is. The draft pick should really not be much of a consideration for a pitcher of Scherzer's caliber. Especially if it's only a 2nd round pick Yes but let's not pretend draft picks and the related draft budget don't mean something to this team. The front office values them more than most teams IMO.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 10:01:27 GMT -5
I'm of the belief that Detroit has moved on from Scherzer and will offer Price his money. I pass on Scherzer on the market because his asking price will be higher. I'll give Lester a sixth year before spending on another top pitcher and lose a draft pick. As for the #2 rotation spot I'm checking in on Hamels or Cueto etc. this off season and see what there price of acquisition is.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 0:33:38 GMT -5
I say more of the same. High floor bat. Could see him having a Cecchiniesque hitting tool.
Edit: Pre 2014
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 0:18:22 GMT -5
If you sign Cespedes to an extension it's easy to see how Betts looks squeezed out. But I suggest management might instead look to trade JBJr and put Betts in CF with his more potent bat and with more experience pretty decent defense. Wouldn't shock me to see a JBJr/(Ruby or Webster)/(Johnson or Rodriguez or Ranaudo) plus one of a Coyle or lower level lotto type in a deal. Not a Stanton deal as it would need at least one higher regarded prospect but maybe it gets you in the Hamels door or another unexpected target.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 1, 2014 0:00:25 GMT -5
'So for 1.5 years of price we got a utility infielder, a set up man, and an 18 year old thats probably 24 years old?" Hahaha! Thanks for this. Read mostly the whole thing and it is funny ( and to some extent sad) following fans reactions as the day unfolded only to end in bitter disappointment.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 22:42:24 GMT -5
I don't think any of us believed how committed Ben was to improving the 2015 roster in today's deals. There are two reasons I am particularly happy with the Cespedes deal. First he brings a solid D to the OF and adds power to an OF devoid of it. Secondly it brings a 2nd round comp pick and the extra draft budget which can be a de facto replacement, although lower, for losing a second rounder when signing a QO free agent if as expected the team has a protected first rounder. However if Ben is just as committed to resigning Lester there may be no forfeiture of a draft pick for signing a Shields or so forth. I believe it is far more likely beyond Lester the front office would trade from the pitching depth in the system to acquire an off the radar major league starter this off season.
As for the Lackey deal I was less enthusiastic but I have to reserve judgement. Honestly I haven't seen Kelly throw much at all to have an opinion on what role he fits and what upside remains. Craig I am more familiar with but he creates a few questions. First is he healthy and will his bat bounce back if he is? Second is while he appears to be a LF for the remainder of this season and next what is the 2016 plan? Does this make it more likely Napoli doesn't return on a short term deal if still producing and he becomes the future 1B? Is he a DH replacement after Ortiz? I have to believe there will be multiple other OF options from the system making a position change for Craig more likely.
As for the Peavy and Miller deal he was able to balance the major league pieces with a few quality young arms that still offer upside. The glut of AA/AAA starters grows and foreshadows a larger trade. And there's only one aspect that matters in regards to the Drew trade; it frees Xander up to move to SS. The bonus is NYY eats the other 5 mil of the salary. We didn't need anything back so Johnson's fate matters little unless he takes time from Middlebrooks and Holt.
Overall I have to say it was a successful week on the market. Clearly this is part one with part two coming this winter. I'm in an A- range only because I thought the Lackey deal needed one more piece like the first round comp pick. This would have been a B- if not for the excess value received in the Peavy and Miller deals. Good job overall Ben. Now go get us Lester back.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 19:43:18 GMT -5
I flat out can't figure out Tampa Bay's logic. One would think they could have used Price the remainder of this year and still gotten a similar return next winter. Even a better return. Consider the impact on the fans who thought they were in a pennant race. Their approach was mind boggling. Was Price a malcontent in the clubhouse? They must really like Drew Smyly to get that return and pull it off in the last minute. I think Cherington beat them to the punch on other options and they were left holding the bag. And then panicked. I would agree. Even without the benefit of the extra few months this season the entrance of other teams already out of the playoff race into the equation should allow you to receive a similar return.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 18:43:06 GMT -5
Ben Cherington on MLB Network - Talks started this week with lots of prospect packages - Stressed they could have done VERY well in prosepct packages on both guys- "We have a good farm system and we have faith in the guys we have" - When Billy Beane first called, he missed he call and "to be honest I didn't see it, because most time these deals are centered on prospects and they just traded their best ones - Called Billy Beane smart and daring For Instance
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 18:41:23 GMT -5
Didn't Ben say this himself during his press conference. Why say it if not true?
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 18:24:10 GMT -5
I can't help but laugh at the Pirates. Got caught with their pants down in the middle of a rains storm with no help. Huntington is an idiot. A starting pitcher like Lester makes team at least as likely to make the WS as the Dodgers, but instead they sat back and watched the Cardinals significantly improve and surpass them. It's no wonder why that franchise has never won squat. I feel bad for Pirates fans. Such a joke that they wouldn't give up a guy like Bell + a lower end top 10 prospect to solidify their playoff standing and actually go for it for once. As a Red Sox fan, I'm happy. I like Cespedes more than Bell though so...I just can't help but laugh at the incompetence that is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Teams like them and the Royals are what is wrong with the MLB. What we know is Boston received very good prospect package offers. We know Ben wanted pieces to help in 2015. With this knowledge we can't say Pittsburgh didn't offer Bell or Meadows for Lester or even Lackey. We just don't know.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 17:50:26 GMT -5
I would seem that there's finally room for Owens in Pawtucket I would expect Layne to be promoted to Boston and Owens to be promoted to Pawtucket. With Eduardo Rodriguez slotting in Owens spot.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 31, 2014 16:28:28 GMT -5
How do you think there is any hope of trading with Amaro. He couldn't unload anyone at the deadline including Byrd. What was his offer to Seattle? Something like here's three really good prospects in your system, you pick the two you're giving us for Byrd followed by end of conversation by Seattle.
The best hope is Amaro is fired and then reengage with whichever sane person replaces him.
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