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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2014 11:30:44 GMT -5
Dan O'Mara @dan_OMara Take this for what you will, but Josh Bell is in the Altoona Curves line-up today. Always can get removed from the lineup. Oh geez. If the deal isn't done by 5 this is what we're going to be overreacting to all night. Player A's not in the lineup or player B was just removed in the 5th inning. Spare us please, Ben.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 30, 2014 10:33:44 GMT -5
I think there is clearly a disconnect here between what the fans expect in return and what is the likely return. Disappointment is just a case of reality not matching expectations, realistic or not. When it's read that Ben is asking for two elite prospects in return the mistake is made by many to adopt this thinking as an actual outcome. Where in reality I believe this is the standard operating procedure in negotiating. Always aim higher than what you want because the other side will always offer less. I expect Ben is fine with one high end prospect, most probably a bat, and two lesser pieces either in the form of a lower level higher upside play, a higher floor closer to the majors player or a comp pick. Prospect junkies can't help but let the imagination run free.
I don't think Ben will struggle to get the one high end piece needed to get the deal done whether it's Piscotty, Bell, Peterson, Pederson etc. Its just a matter of what Ben can do to add a sweetener. Maybe it's cash, maybe it's a Gomes, Drew or a bullpen piece not named Miller or Uehara or maybe it's a mix. I'd be happy with any one of the four named with two lesser pieces because the outcome is both greater than the QO pick and closer to contributing in the majors. The drop in value from an extra year of service to a rental is significant. This is the reality TB is facing with Price. They couldn't get the large price they have wanted to date and it continues to drop as his salary escalates and his control lessens.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 29, 2014 15:43:01 GMT -5
I'd have no problem eating the remainder of Lester's 14 salary for a lower revenue team to increase the prospect return. He may be a rental but a frontline starter who is an absolute free rental is pretty valuable to those small budget contending teams. Specifically Pittsburgh and KC fit this idea although we have mentioned Lackey perhaps is a better fit to these teams particularly if both parties are open to a short term extension.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 29, 2014 14:15:40 GMT -5
True, but he hasn't pitched in Tacoma since 7/18. I believe he is scheduled to pitch tonight.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 28, 2014 22:45:40 GMT -5
It appears a Lester deal is inevitable at this point. So the question changes to should Lackey also be traded? Lackey does provide a veteran presence with Bucholz entering 2015 and at a bargain price. We know though any player has a price that a team would consider moving them. If Price is off the market and Hamels requires three high end pieces we know Lester becomes more desirable but Lackey seems to be in that next group of desirable starters who are available. Doesn't hurt to gauge his value. If the team doesn't find the right deal he stays.
What would follow for Lackey would seem to be an extension in the off season of an additional year in the neighborhood off a combined 2 and 15. Essentially it would be adding a one year 14.5 mil year for 2016 but in reality would pay him along the lines of 6 mil and 9 mil for 2015 and 2016. This does two things. It provides a short term proven veteran presence while integrating the young starters and it still holds trade value for Lackey into July of 2015 or next off season. Use Peavy as a baseline and Lackeys trade value next season would exceed Peavy with both less money owed an an extra year or control without the current threat of retirement. In fact Lackey to me seems to be exactly what Pittsburgh could use although we don't know if they will find themselves in the same situation next trade deadline. Even now if they could trade for him and give him a 2015 6 mil and 2016 9 mil extension it would be solid value and alone or with Carp all but warrant enough value for Josh Bell.
I know it's the unpopular opinion but if BC can garner enough high end prospect talent through trading Lester and Lackey I actually think the front office would loosen the reigns this off season in regards to losing draft picks and monetary expenditures to land a veteran starter or much more likely just pay Lester his money.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 18:47:08 GMT -5
It does run counter to everything else being reported. And why would the Cardinals be scouting Boston if they were looking for offense because we've been looking for it all season and still haven't found it.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 17:31:15 GMT -5
When was this report from? I have to assume it's from before his previous 2 starts. Maybe there's been some improvement. The results sure have been better. Today Printed today but I imagine scouted before his previous 2 starts so you're both likely right.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 12:52:30 GMT -5
I'll take a lottery ticket in Edmundo Sosa for Peavy if Ben can't coax more from St Louis.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 12:42:47 GMT -5
If I'm St Louis I'd be more likely to try to center a deal for Lester around a young arm so I can keep both Taveras and Piscotty to plug into the outfield and then try to move Matt Holliday in the off season or next trade deadline to clear cap room for a Lester extension. Now I have a young OF offense who is very cheap and have plenty of other arms to plug in behind Wainwright and Lester. I also get some value in return for Holiday to replenish what I traded for Lester.
Add: If I'm Boston I am targeting a hitter. Lester is the best trade chip to bring back a top 100 potential impact bat.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 8, 2014 12:33:19 GMT -5
Am I the only one who thinks he traded Russell figuring he'll flip Shark next year for a comparable prospect? It's basically what he tried to do with CarGo/Holliday. I don't see how that's possible. It would be like us trading Lester for a top 10 prospect now. The difference is Samardzia will still give the team trading for him a full season, not a half, and allow said team to then at worst collect a 1st round supplemental pick which Lester will not.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 7, 2014 13:36:59 GMT -5
Agree. LA has just tracked down SF from a huge lead and their staff is pitching well. I don't see the urgency to make a deal from their point of view. Where as chavo has mentioned the NL Central race where Pittsburgh is coming on strong and the St Louis staff is falling apart of late. I think the urgency is growing with Pittsburgh, St Louis and Cincinnati sitting 1.5, 2, and 3 games out of the WC respectively.
Generally I would still prefer to lock up Lester to a 5 year deal and 115 but if he wants 6 and in the neighborhood of 140 mil or so and the front office is tentative then why not trade him for top dollar. You can then attempt to resign him to an offer in the 6 years and 144 or 150 mil on an overpay from the original targeted figure, trading the extra year and $ for valuable prospects who by the end of the deal are hopefully contributing making up the extra costs on the books. The risk is of course someone is willing to go 7 and 175 and you lose out. Still if you can get some form of higher tier talent and have a chance to resign him without the loss of a draft pick its a win win. I know it doesn't usually work that way however so it's a gamble in deed.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 5, 2014 22:31:32 GMT -5
They'd probably be more likely to give up a pitcher. They may be more likely to want to give up a pitcher but I believe both TB and Boston would want a top bat in return for Price or Lester. At this point there aren't alternatives of that ilk on the market so if they want a top line starter it's a decision they'll have to make. Side Note: Another prospect in the St Louis organization who is very young but I'd love to land is SS Edmundo Sosa.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 5, 2014 22:06:06 GMT -5
One thing I will be watching over the next couple of weeks is the NL Central. I could see all four of the contending teams in that division having interest in Lester (to varying degrees). Milwaukee has lost four in a row and the division is tightening. The teams also have some interesting prospects that could entice the Red Sox to move Lester. What Tampa does with Price is another X-Factor. If one of the four teams acquires Price, I could see another team making a hard push for Lester. My dream scenario is the Cardinals giving up Taveras, but doubt that happens. Especially since if they were willing to give him up it would more likely be for Price. A more likely scenario would be something like Glasnow and Josh Bell from the Pirates. They have a lot of things that could go wrong with the rotation in the coming weeks. They will see if Liriano can come back healthy. Cole left with an injury last night. Both Worley and Locke have pitched well, but either could turn into a pumpkin tomorrow. If the Red Sox do end up selling Lester, the best thing to root for as a Sox fan is this division tightening up in the standings. If St Louis were in the market I could see a package deal with both Lester and Uehara going out. Perhaps then you can convince them to part with Taveras as the centerpiece coming back.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 5, 2014 10:53:23 GMT -5
Cecchini down to 12 is no small matter considering how highly many thought of him just as recently as last August/September. At the time the only question with him seemed to be the power.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 5, 2014 10:47:44 GMT -5
Just glad I don't have to see Addison Russell on the other side of the diamond in TB for potentially the next decade had Oakland preferred Price.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 5, 2014 10:42:28 GMT -5
Guerra with a HR, showing nice power to go with his average. Add in the scouting reports and he is very interesting. Devers with another hit, though he made an out. Chavis 0-2 so far. We now see why he was benched earlier. Benjamin Moore watches one just off the paint for a walk . I see what you did there.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 4, 2014 10:05:29 GMT -5
MLB.com has the Sox game with the O's postponed already. Didn't take long.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 3, 2014 23:50:23 GMT -5
I imagine there are a range of outcomes with Lester dependent on if he is still willing to sign at a discount and what the term discount means to him. I would first look at similar age pitchers who appear to be similar comps to Lester and I gravitate towards Matt Cain who will turn 30 in Oct and is paid 20M per year for the next 3 with an option at 21M. Secondly I look at Cole Hamels who is an almost identical age of 30 and paid 22.5M per year over the next 4 with a team option at 20M and a vesting option at 24M. Third I turn not to an age similar pitcher but to the most recently signed big acquisition AL East pitcher in Tanaka who is paid 22M per for the next 5 seasons with a 23M 6th season. As Lesters agent I'm using something of this variety to set the parameters. The next piece to consider is length of the contract. I imagine if your Lester you would like 6 years. I have to believe the team would be in the 4 to 5 year range. So the question I consider is does Lester offer a discount to the team in AAV or does he instead offer said discount in the reduction of the years on the deal.
When considering all of the pieces I look at a discounted contract either coming in the form of a shorter length 5 year and 115M deal (23M AAV) or a lower AAV 6 year and 125M deal (just shy of 21M AAV) variety. I presume the free agent going rate for Lester to be about 6 years and 141M (23.5M AAV) for comparison. This is less than the figure, 6 years and 144M, soon to be 30 year old Scherzer turned down from Detroit. Lester would appear to be the second option on the free agent market and if Scherzer is seeking something more in the range of 6 and 150 plus I can see a team turning instead to Lester who could be landed for 10 to 20 mil less.
To wrap it up my willingness ends either at the 6 year and 125M deal which would include a 6th year buyout in the 8 mil range or at a 5 year 115M deal. The second of which is my preference over the longer term contract. I am wary of all aging pitchers and would consider another two seasons of vintage Lester followed by two season of slightly reduced Lester to be sufficient return. The fifth year is essentially a hope he's still producing year but essential to get a deal done in order to gain from the first 4 seasons both from on field production and as a mentor leader for the young up and coming arms.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 2, 2014 14:24:46 GMT -5
Last year was the beards, next season it's . . .
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Post by taftreign on Jul 2, 2014 14:01:44 GMT -5
Looks like 2 more signings in RHP Roniel Raudez & P Diosmar Cortez. Both are from Nicaragua and got in excess of 100K. So 5 pitchers and no bats so far. The only other players I've read connected to Boston remaining at this point are Venezuelan right hander Junior Espinoza (unknown if he is of a relation to Anderson Espinoza but would not be surprised to see a brother combo sign again) and Dominican SS Elwin Tejada who is the only bat mentioned. Subscription required: www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-forecasts-30-teams/
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Post by taftreign on Jul 2, 2014 12:16:50 GMT -5
And any team with a Betts on it you know is worth watching. The current sox would indicate otherwise. Perhaps but you're still watching aren't you.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 2, 2014 11:08:21 GMT -5
I don't know that I care if they sign more top 30 guys who will cost 750,000 plus. Rather I'm content signing the top guys they target (Acosta and Espinoza) and then go for quantity. There have already been 3 other players speculated in the $200,000 to $400,000 range and experience shows us they are just as likely to become MLBers as the million dollar prospects. Two top pitchers and 6 or 7 players in the lesser $ category is more than acceptable.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 1, 2014 23:50:27 GMT -5
This Lowell team is fascinating. There are a few exciting young hitters on this team, particularly Dubon, Travis and Longhi. Mars in an admittedly small sample has the 'look' of a natural leadoff hitter. And any team with a Betts on it you know is worth watching. All this makes me think Greenville should be another fun follow next season.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 1, 2014 13:52:16 GMT -5
So Red Sox have released Capuano after DFAing him earlier. He cleared waivers and the Sox still owe the remainder of his contract this season. Still worth the roster spot.
Additionally they have traded Rich Hill to Anaheim. The MLB Trade Rumors recap.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 28, 2014 15:26:19 GMT -5
Let's call up the hottest guy in the system with a consecutive on-base streak...and sit him. John Farrell, ladies and gentlemen. May get his first major league at bat as a pinch hitter tonight.
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