Off-topic, is mlb purging any in game video posted to Twitter? Noticed you haven't been posting your typical videos there lately, and the Dalbec home run video I'd found from someone else is now gone.
Nah, I'm just not going to take the copyright ban risk anymore now that other big accounts just instantaneously swipe what I post.
Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 23, 2021 22:25:12 GMT -5
If you were forced to make an argument for taking Mayer over Lawlar, how would it go?
Good question here too. I’ve pretty publicly had Mayer closer to Lawlar on my draft board than I think a lot of others have.
If you’re making the argument for Mayer over Lawlar, I think you have to first start with the body. Mayer has a longer, leaner body than Lawlar that figures to add more muscle in the coming years. He’s an inch taller with longer arms and legs. That said, Mayer currently lacks the athleticism and physicality Lawlar has at the plate. If you believe in your player development system, and believe they can get the most physicality out of Mayer, he probably has a higher ceiling.
Mayer is also a lefty-bat which big league organizations prefer in terms of prep profile. I’m not sure if that really moves the needle too much as Lawlar is such a special, accomplished hitter in his own right.
For me, Mayer projects a 60-hitter with 60-game power. Lawlar, for me, projects a 70-hitter with 55+ game power.
Defensively, I’ve got Mayer eventually developing into a 70-grade defender at shortstop with Lawlar coming in a shade lower at 60-grade. Both figure to be dynamic defenders on the dirt with good arms who should stick at the position.
I really don’t think you can go wrong with either player. I like the projection in Mayer’s body a bit more than Lawlar’s, and I prefer his hands and actions on the dirt just a tick more. But if you asked me today, I’d still take Lawlar first. The hit tool and floor is just too good.
Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 19, 2021 19:16:29 GMT -5
I've watched every pitch Hill has thrown this year and I love everything about him except the dominance is just not there, at least not yet. Physically looks awesome. Swagger is there. Hard fastball, good slider, elite change. Maybe it's just him being a football player with limited college looks, but there is no way these kids should make as much contact / good contact against him that they have thus far. I'd love to get a look at his pitch data to see what this all looks like under the hood.
Scouts love what Mayer brings to the field. It’s a plus hit tool with plus defense on the dirt and burgeoning power. What was thought to have been 45 or 50 game power is now getting some 55-grades thanks to increased pull-side physicality and added strength. Mayer may not be a guy that does any one thing exceptionally well, but he does everything on the diamond better than most. How Mayer’s body continues to grow and develop will likely dictate what sort of impact he’s capable of with the bat. There’s a chance here for four 55-or-better grades with the run tool probably settling in at average. He’s a no-doubt shortstop at the big league level with a ceiling as high as anyone in the class.
Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 7, 2021 16:31:53 GMT -5
Here is a video that is about Whitley but applies to Mata as well. Talks about where the tear needs to be for PRP to be able to fix it. Cora seemed pretty confident so hopefully is the best case scenario.
Last Edit: Mar 7, 2021 16:32:25 GMT -5 by RedSoxStats
Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 27, 2021 17:18:11 GMT -5
Bryant said in 2019 that his fastball maxed out at 94 or 95, but it seems he pitches a tick or two below that. Also thought it was interesting that he was a super husky kid in high school and he basically turned himself into a shredded body builder-type.
Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 26, 2021 21:41:22 GMT -5
Hill was very workmanlike. Ton of weak grounders on low sinkers. Threw 7 or 8 stunning changeups. Breaking pitches were spiked or rolled out of his hand most of the time.
- 6.0 IP career high, 77 pitches - 0 ER - 1 H - 0 BB - 4 K
Anyway, the link there is interesting, though I don't know what that chart is saying. One problem is that (unless I'm missing something) it doesn't break performance out by position, and the Sox haven't been strong defensively at 2B or 3B the last two years, so it's hard to infer anything about Xander specifically. Maybe RedSoxStats can clarify...
At the end of 2019 and again last summer, when tweeting about the disconnect between the Sox pitching ERA and their different projected ERAs, a few people reached out and pointed out how these ground balls were a "big problem" mainly on the left side of the infield. I just posted what I could gather from FG and Savant. Devers' error issues seemed like less of a problem in those situations to me than shortstop range. Clearly not a case study breakdown here, but between the public metrics and what Dombrowski and Cora have said publicly, no matter how happy they are with him just making routine plays, X not getting to balls is an issue.
There was this yesterday. I wonder if the Sox are offering 2.5 million dollars to relievers in free agency and seeing who takes it? (Still keeps them below the CBT before the season starts)
Is this in addition to the Sawamura deal?
Yeah, they are still looking. Cotillo dropped some name yesterday of guys they are interested in.
Relevant Stats: Potts turned 22 in October. He hit 16 homers as part of a .227/.290/.406 line in Double-A Amarillo in 2019. He played mainly third, with a dash of second thrown in for taste. He maxed out at a 112 mph exit velocity in that campaign, a frankly absurd number for a 20-year-old.
What I Like: It’s so hard to play in Double-A at 20 years old. Potts wasn’t good, but he was able to tread water despite being three to four years young for the level, which is often a better sign than hitting well at an age-appropriate level. That said, don’t sleep on his 2018, when he was also quite young for Hi-A and put together a fearsome power season. Every single model I used doesn’t hold strikeouts against players as much once they reach Double-A, and that mostly tracks with intuition; a Low-A hitter striking out 30% of the time is doomed in a way that a Triple-A slugger who does the same simply isn’t. Potts straddles that line; he’s always had contact issues, even at lower levels. The combination of his power and age are simply more enticing than the whiffs are worrisome.
Warning Signs: The big one is contact — that’s not the kind of thing you can paper over with other skills. Eric has a 40 FV on Potts’ hit tool, and if it turns out lower than that, it might make his bat unplayable. He’ll also need to find a defensive home; he looks like a corner guy, though San Diego experimented with a Mike Moustakas-esque second base assignment before trading him. Corner-only sluggers with contact issues aren’t exactly in short supply, so that’s the worry here.
Last Edit: Feb 16, 2021 11:20:22 GMT -5 by RedSoxStats
He clearly was just running batting ORDER, not optimizing the lineup.
Yeah, it's an old tool now, based on OBP and SLG, and I used overall projected numbers, not L/R splits. It's just for kicks, not some in-depth analysis.
However, when I ran it before last season it spit out Verdugo and Martinez 1-2 as well, and the Sox opened with Martinez batting 2nd, and Verdugo quickly moved to leadoff.
The Sox moved JD out of the 2-spot after a week, but it turns out he was just bad last year, not lineup spot specific bad. I hope they try it again.
As for the question about Hernandez 3rd... The Book has a great lineup chapter and is probably the standard today. The gist of it is broken down here. As long as your best hitters are batting in the 1-2-4-5 slots, the rest is whatever and probably where the mix and match guys will hit.
Also, I presume Vazquez will hit like 6th, not 9th, though statcast doesn't like him much and 5 projection systems have him averaging a 91 wRC+ this season.
“This is something that I don't know for a fact, but this is something that the analytics people tell me,” said Roenicke. “For whatever reason, the second spot in your lineup is the most important spot in your lineup."
Last Edit: Feb 15, 2021 17:45:15 GMT -5 by RedSoxStats
Super small sample last year but Cordero slashed his K rate big time
When he makes contact he impacts the ball....he’s just gotta make contact. Hopefully they end up bringing back JBJ.
I feel validated with my post now
No reporters put it out there, but I watched the zoom press conference with Bloom and he said, "We feel there's untapped upside there that he’s shown at points, especially last summer." So yeah, people pointed out SSS numbers, but the Sox are interested in them as well.