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Middlebrooks' 2013 Struggles
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Post by nmacny on Aug 2, 2013 13:35:28 GMT -5
LONG time reader, first time poster ... hello to all. As a prospect follower and a fan of the Red Sox, I was really hoping for a productive season out of WMB as the Sox starting third baseman. Maybe I'm grasping at straws here and my disappointment is causing me to search for excuses - but does anyone think last years wrist injury has had any lingering effects on WMB? Or can his struggles solely be attributed to the often-discussed lack of a plate approach? I seem to remember wrist troubles slowing the beginning of Ryan Kalish's professional career, and even slowing Big Papi down a few years back. The fact that we're in August and I haven't heard WMB's wrist injury mentioned as a possible culprit for his disappointing season probably answers my question. But I'm no scout and not nearly as knowledgeable as many of the posters here, so that's why I ask. Soxprospects is my go-to site ... I come here for anything and everything baseball-related. Now that I've finally taken the time to register and post something, I suppose a big THANK YOU to the staff and posters on this forum is long overdue. So thank you all! I can't even begin to tell you how many hours a day I spend here, how much I've learned here, and how much more enjoyable you all make my work day  |
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Post by jchang on Aug 2, 2013 13:47:29 GMT -5
My opinion is that WMB is extremely talented, particularly in bat strength as his HRs are still rising on leaving the ball park, such that he was able to be successful through his minor league ascent without ever having to develop a solid plate approach. However, in the hyper-scrutinized world of MLB, any flaw that can be found in a player will be attacked relentlessly. So hopefully Will will solve this before he runs out of options or a 40-man roster spot.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 2, 2013 13:48:50 GMT -5
I don't think its solely his lack of plate disciple. His unusually low babip in the majors suggests a lot of it was really bad luck. I think the biggest problem was how he responded to a slump. Instead of slowing down his approach and focusing on the things he can control, he just got frustrated and started hacking at everything, turning his walk and strike out rates from mildly concerning to a serious problem. Those have both rebounded a bit in AAA but I guess its still something they want to work on.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 2, 2013 13:55:06 GMT -5
It's his strikeout rate! It's his strikeout rate!
Which is partly plate discipline and partly pitch recognition. Or maybe those are two parts of the same animal anyway.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 2, 2013 13:58:52 GMT -5
I'm still a big fan of Will.....a BIG fan! I do believe the wrist injury got to him some, at least, subconsciously. Add on his back problem this year and I'm sure his confidence took a hit. Anyone who as ever batted in an organized game at any level, knows how important confidence is and his mind must have had some of these issues to sort through. Hitting or almost any athletic skill is repetition. To me, Middlebrook's problems went from the physical to mental and he is still figuring it out.
I have read many posts on here about getting rid of Will or stating he wasn't the answer, I disagree. He is only 24 years old, has 30 homerun power locked up in that body, is athletic (can potentially be a plus defender at 3rd), and is an extremely hard worker. HOW could anyone give up on this kid this early?
I look forward to a left side of the infield next year, at the latest, of Middlebrooks and Bogaerts. That really excites me. It should be encouraging for all Sox fans!
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2013 14:11:45 GMT -5
It's his strikeout rate! It's his strikeout rate! Which is partly plate discipline and partly pitch recognition. Or maybe those are two parts of the same animal anyway. He also has a longish swing-- many of his home runs are driven out to right-center, and he's not really a pull power guy. That long swing means there's some hit-and-miss in his swing, especially when it's compounded with his weak pitch recognition. Frankly, I'm more concerned with his high K rate than the low BB rate. He'll never walk much, but he needs to get his strikeout rate in the 20% range to maintain a passable OBP and let his power play up. |
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Post by hammerhead on Aug 2, 2013 14:25:36 GMT -5
I feel a little bit different. I think this was your typical sophomore slump. Pitchers got a book on him and between the injuries and poor pitch recognition he never made the adjustments to fix himself. He's always going to be a streaky hitter and will never walk much, but he never forced pitchers to throw him something to hit. You can't be a mistake/geuss hitter forever. Streaky as he is I think though at the end of a season he could accumulate enough to be an above average MLB 3rdbaseman high slug low OBP.
It was the perfect storm, snowball effect , whatever analogy you want to make. The team couldn't handle Napoli and WMB whiffing every other Ab. Add to all that Iglesias's luck fueled offensive barrage and Will never was able to string together enough positive AB's to break out of the prolonged slump.
He needs to improve his contact rate as well. Which goes along with everything else.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 2, 2013 14:51:02 GMT -5
WMB's career MLB line is now .247/.283/.457/.741. That's pretty close to what I expected as his 2013 performance. Obviously it didn't happen but unless you think he's really a .192 hitter, a return to the .700-.750 OPS level is fairly reachable and would make him a solid player in his prime.
I just don't think he's a very good hitter and when he slumps it will be ugly.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2013 15:43:56 GMT -5
It's his strikeout rate! It's his strikeout rate! Which is partly plate discipline and partly pitch recognition. Or maybe those are two parts of the same animal anyway. He also has a longish swing-- many of his home runs are driven out to right-center, and he's not really a pull power guy. That long swing means there's some hit-and-miss in his swing, especially when it's compounded with his weak pitch recognition. Frankly, I'm more concerned with his high K rate than the low BB rate. He'll never walk much, but he needs to get his strikeout rate in the 20% range to maintain a passable OBP and let his power play up. I do not agree that Middlebrooks has a long or longish swing. I am a hitting coach, and WMB's swing is one of the best strokes in all of MLB, it is compact, he creates excellent torque and bat speed, and he does a great job keeping his hands inside the baseball. I will agree all day that his free swinging approach is a big problem, but his swing is a thing of beauty. |
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2013 16:31:21 GMT -5
Maybe my terminology is wrong, but Middlebrooks has a tendency to overextend his arms, which opens up a hole in his swing on the inner third. He does generate great batspeed, but he's always had contact issues even on fastballs, especially those inside or high.
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Post by jdb on Aug 2, 2013 19:08:30 GMT -5
Would you all be okay with us penciling in WMBs at 3B next year after his struggles. I don't think a major acquisition is needed especially with Cecchini waiting in the wings. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision bc he has looked bad. That being said he has tons of upside if he can command the zone better and cut down the Ks.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2013 19:43:32 GMT -5
Would you all be okay with us penciling in WMBs at 3B next year after his struggles. I don't think a major acquisition is needed especially with Cecchini waiting in the wings. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision bc he has looked bad. That being said he has tons of upside if he can command the zone better and cut down the Ks. I think they'll go for some short term insurance for SS/3B in case either WMB or Xander struggle. |
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Post by wildcardwillie on Aug 2, 2013 20:31:21 GMT -5
I would still like to see wmb playing right now you could bat him 8th and at least maybe have some pop at the bottom of the lineup.
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Post by buffs4444 on Aug 2, 2013 21:18:55 GMT -5
Would you all be okay with us penciling in WMBs at 3B next year after his struggles. Without question. Agree with the above, I'd rather have him up here now playing. SS/3B are batting 8-9 in the order now, no reason not to have those spots filled with The Future (X and WMB) rather than the past. This team environment is exactly what you want two young guys like Xander and Will to be surrounded by.... |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2013 21:27:30 GMT -5
So baffled by all the WMB love in this thread. He's .246/.301/.421 since his demotion. There's really just not much there.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 2, 2013 21:28:20 GMT -5
I prefer our better players play. Right now, WMB is not one of the better 3B in Boston/Pawtucket. He's struggling to hit AAA pitching. I'm sure he'll be up in Sept though.
If you want Xander and WMB that means sitting Drew - and DFA-ing Snyder. No thanks.
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Post by mainesox on Aug 2, 2013 21:55:30 GMT -5
So baffled by all the WMB love in this thread. He's .246/.301/.421 since his demotion. There's really just not much there. It's not even like this should have been all that unexpected; it's hard to be a successful hitter with that kind of plate approach. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 2, 2013 23:36:54 GMT -5
FYI, Bogaerts is .306/.414/.491 in the same time frame.
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Post by jmei on Aug 3, 2013 0:01:52 GMT -5
So baffled by all the WMB love in this thread. He's .246/.301/.421 since his demotion. There's really just not much there. Eh, but that's with a .266 BABIP. His AAA strikeout rate of 18.1% and walk rate of 8.8% are not terrible and far better than what he put up in the major leagues. If he can replicate those rates at the major-league level, he's a very good player. |
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 3, 2013 9:39:50 GMT -5
I disagree on "very good" but that's subjective, whatever. And it's still AAA pitching. And they have a better option sitting right there.
It's a lot easier to bench/demote XB if he struggles and replace him with WMB than vice versa. How much did JBJ getting demoted crush his confidence given that he's done nothing but dominate the IL? You really think it'd be good for WMB's development to call him up and say, "Okay, you have three weeks to hit and if not you're back in AAA/on the bench"? You might say that's irrelevant, but again, in my and many others' opinion, Xander is the better player anyway, period.
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Post by jmei on Aug 3, 2013 10:58:31 GMT -5
I meant his strikeout and walk rates, not the triple-slash. If he maintains a league-average BABIP, that's something like .270/.330/.450, which I would be thrilled to get from 3B. But his strikeout rate is likely to spike in the major leagues, and I agree that Xander is probably a better choice in the short term. I just wanted to point out that he hasn't been that bad in his AAA stint.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 3, 2013 11:30:43 GMT -5
I think Middlebrooks can play every day for a mediocre to bad team, at least for a few years. In 124 major league games his fwar is 1.5, so let's about 2 in a full season. I think that's what he is ultimately. That's fine as long as he's cheap, I have no problem with him at 3B and Xander at SS next year. But I see a lot of people saying he should be given a chance now or that he's their 3B for the rest of this year and it baffles. me. And that doesn't mean I think it's a lock that Xander comes up and rakes.
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 4, 2013 21:52:52 GMT -5
So, what does WMB need to do the rest of September to have us consider this a net positive year?
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Post by bluechip on Sept 4, 2013 22:00:32 GMT -5
So, what does WMB need to do the rest of September to have us consider this a net positive year? If he continues to draw walks, and limit his strikeouts, and is able to carry that forward, then this will have been a positive year from a developmental prospective. |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2013 10:44:48 GMT -5
So, what does WMB need to do the rest of September to have us consider this a net positive year? If he continues to draw walks, and limit his strikeouts, and is able to carry that forward, then this will have been a positive year from a developmental prospective. Well, here's the funny thing. His improvement in K rate since the call-up, from .279 to .216, isn't close to being statistically significant. The p value is .256, meaning that one guy in four would show such an improvement just at random. His improvement in BB rate, from .042 to .068, is even less significant ( p = .338). You can multiply those together, to measure the chance of them happening simultaneously, and it still doesn't pass the scientific standard of p < .05. In fact, you can throw in his improvement in HR/Contact (.062 to .081, p = .626), inflated by measuring it at the peak of a hot streak, and it still falls short of getting The New Will Middlebrooks approved by the FDA. So much for the "three true outcomes." But you know what is massively significant? His BABIP:.221 before Pawtucket, .404 afterwards. The p value of that is .009, or less than 1 chance in a thousand of being random. So I faked you out. Rather than "don't trust this small sample to demonstrate that he's been better," the actual point is (not for the first time) "don't assume hitter's BABIP is luck." In this case, a real and decent-sized but not statistically significant improvement in strike zone command has led to a hugely significant improvement in hitting the ball hard. |
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