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Post by semperfisox on Nov 4, 2013 11:51:44 GMT -5
Dodgers or Yanks IMO.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 4, 2013 15:31:18 GMT -5
Along with being the most recent WS champ, Sox also have the advantage of two Japanese pitchers currently on the team who are very happy to be here. Being that pitchers often hang together, this will set up a nice support/comfort system. Not saying Yankees won't create such a system, but if Kuroda goes back to Japan, there is no one with Matsui and Mr. AAA, Kei Igawa, gone.
Of course Seattle and Texas are different stories if they want him.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 4, 2013 23:52:53 GMT -5
Japanese players throw so much between games that I think the pitch every 6th day as compared to every 5th day is effectively a canard. If anything, Japanese pitchers have less recovery time between games overall.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 5, 2013 9:20:40 GMT -5
I think it would be a good investment to go after Tanaka but we's likely have to trade Peavy to cut payroll afterwards and open up a slot for him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2013 11:19:09 GMT -5
When I actually read some scouting reports on Tanaka I'm really not all that impressed. There is such a great unknown with Japanese pitchers. One thing seems clear, he's not a Yu Darvish clone, in that he's not an overpowering big strikeout guy. How he translates to the major leagues is a mystery that shouldn't be taken lightly.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 5, 2013 16:44:24 GMT -5
When I actually read some scouting reports on Tanaka I'm really not all that impressed. There is such a great unknown with Japanese pitchers. One thing seems clear, he's not a Yu Darvish clone, in that he's not an overpowering big strikeout guy. How he translates to the major leagues is a mystery that shouldn't be taken lightly. Keep in mind that Iwakuma isn't an overpowering type starter either and neither is the Korean import Ryu. Scouting and yes.. Pure and simple hope will play a big game in his future in MLB career. If Boston does sign him? Having Uehara here would help some as a teammate and fellow countryman, same with Taz. As for the post above by dcsoxfan above and trading/moving a SP? That is easy. Peavy's salary is easily moved if they choose to, but he can probably be retained for another year or even 2 if they choose. Dempster the team can move to the NL and probably only pay half of his contract for 2014. Doubrant is highly tradeable to either league.They have several options, none would be really difficult and only Dempster is even close to a salary dump.
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Post by sierram363 on Nov 5, 2013 17:34:49 GMT -5
If we can get rid of Dempster or Peavy, I'd say we should go after him. He's still young and projected to be a number 2. According to this guy from Baseball America, his splitter might be Koji'esque in effectiveness.
"But as Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote in his summary of Tanaka's most recent start, the righty's splitter grades out as a potential 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. "Tanaka has arguably the best splitter in the world," Badler wrote."
The Red Sox have done a great job with utilizing Japanese pitchers with good/devastating splitters. Okajima, Tazawa, and Uehara.
I don't think Daisuke had one or used it often. His best pitch was the slider I think.
Hopefully we're one of the top bidders.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 6, 2013 13:22:28 GMT -5
For what it's worth Keith Law refers to his splitter as a solid 60... low 90's fast ball with an average to plus slider. 212 IP 183 SO 32 BB
He interests me, I'm just a little weary.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 6, 2013 18:11:25 GMT -5
For what it's worth Keith Law refers to his splitter as a solid 60... low 90's fast ball with an average to plus slider. 212 IP 183 SO 32 BB He interests me, I'm just a little weary. Throwing the forkball used to be hard on the arm and cause undue wear and tear it was said. Here, we see NPB pitchers throwing a dozen (or more) seasons and over 200 innings and the fork ball is their best pitch that they rely on the most. Think that NPB pitchers coming over here that can use just that pitch as a #1 weapon, plus have an average slider and a low 90's FB can be an effective mid rotation starter. The fork ball alone is probably the deciding factor in how he would rank in a rotation and how he should be scouted by teams.
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2013 18:21:46 GMT -5
FWIW, the forkball (or split-finger fastball, or circle changeup, etc.) is generally regarded as one of the less arm-damaging pitches because the pronation it requires puts less stress on your UCL than the supination involved with curveballs, sliders, cutters, etc.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 6, 2013 20:56:39 GMT -5
FWIW, the forkball (or split-finger fastball, or circle changeup, etc.) is generally regarded as one of the less arm-damaging pitches because the pronation it requires puts less stress on your UCL than the supination involved with curveballs, sliders, cutters, etc. My post probably came out wrong JMEI. Thougt it came out clear.. But probably not. It was thought during the 70's and even 60's that the forkball was hard on pitchers and they were encouraged to not use it because it was thought to put extra wear and tear on a pitchers arm. I agree with you that it does not. Think Roger Craig finally put that myth to rest for good.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 6, 2013 22:10:42 GMT -5
I want the pitchers on my team to have plus pronations and fewer supinations.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 7, 2013 0:55:00 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 7, 2013 9:05:53 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 7, 2013 10:11:26 GMT -5
What is the timetable for posting, selection and negotiation? The Japan World Series is over.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 7, 2013 10:46:23 GMT -5
The article title is intriguing, but they also note his K rate has steadily dropped over the last 3 seasons which tempers that a bit. Especially when you factor in how much he's thrown.
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Post by azblue on Nov 7, 2013 12:04:52 GMT -5
The Japanese ball has higher seams.
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Post by sierram363 on Nov 7, 2013 13:18:49 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda. Some are comparing Tanaka to a young Kuroda.
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Post by sammo420 on Nov 7, 2013 13:38:32 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda. Some are comparing Tanaka to a young Kuroda. Yeah, but is it a fair comp or is it a lazy "two Japanese pitchers" comp?
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 7, 2013 13:45:41 GMT -5
Some are comparing Tanaka to a young Kuroda. Yeah, but is it a fair comp or is it a lazy "two Japanese pitchers" comp? Read the fangraphs article above.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 7, 2013 21:34:24 GMT -5
FWIW, the forkball (or split-finger fastball, or circle changeup, etc.) is generally regarded as one of the less arm-damaging pitches because the pronation it requires puts less stress on your UCL than the supination involved with curveballs, sliders, cutters, etc. My post probably came out wrong JMEI. Thougt it came out clear.. But probably not. It was thought during the 70's and even 60's that the forkball was hard on pitchers and they were encouraged to not use it because it was thought to put extra wear and tear on a pitchers arm. I agree with you that it does not. Think Roger Craig finally put that myth to rest for good. Yeah, a lot of what was thought about mechanics and the like from that era and even much later has been disproved or at least called heavily into question. I'm sure some here will remember Mark Prior's "perfect" mechanics?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 21:40:45 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 21:48:40 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda. So you would rather sign Kuroda who is in a serious decline to a 1 yr deal surrendering a draft pick and would have to pay him 15 mil +. I'd much rather sign a pitcher who will be 14 years younger entering the season to a 5 year deal at 12 or so mil per year. Darvish only received 6 and 60 so a 5 and 60 deal that puts him on the market at age 29 would be a desirable age to hit free agency and land another lucrative long term deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 7, 2013 23:27:24 GMT -5
I think Semperfisox has it correct. I think Tanaka is most likely headed for the Yankees with the Dodgers also having a shot. The Yankees have the money and the overwhelming need.
The Sox are deep in starting pitching and have candidates coming up in the minors so my guess is they'll be on the fringes but won't get into a big contract situation.
This doesn't mean that I don't want the Sox to get in on Tanaka, because frankly I think he'd be a great pickup. He's the right age. That's for sure, and while I'm not sure he'd transition as smoothly as Darvish, I think he'd transition better than Daisuke, who in my opinion, was a good solid pitcher for the Sox in 2007 and 2008 before he got injured pitching in the World Cup and was never the same again.
But honestly the Sox' need isn't as great as New York's and I think they'll blow away the other offers and get him signed.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 8, 2013 0:04:29 GMT -5
Isn't the Japanese ball a little smaller or at least it was different in some ways still? When control of the ball's movement is key to a pitcher's success I'm cautious. Matsuzaka was all about control also. I'm definitely open to the prospect of a Tanaka signing but I'd prefer a 1 year deal for Kuroda. So you would rather sign Kuroda who is in a serious decline to a 1 yr deal surrendering a draft pick and would have to pay him 15 mil +. I'd much rather sign a pitcher who will be 14 years younger entering the season to a 5 year deal at 12 or so mil per year. Darvish only received 6 and 60 so a 5 and 60 deal that puts him on the market at age 29 would be a desirable age to hit free agency and land another lucrative long term deal. I don't see a lot of indication that Kuroda is actually declining all that much. Even after 4 years in a row of 200 IP, he still came in with around a 3.50 ERA even after all the damage done to his ERA from a horrible NYC bullpen in the 2nd half of last year. They kept leaving him in games because they had no one to go to near the end. That killed his performances late in the year. He was worn out and pitching when he needed to be pulled out of some games. And there is something to be said for limited financial commitment deals. If he fails badly we are out just 1 year of salary. If a 5 year guy tanks we are in a near franchise affecting situation. And Tanaka's not just a 5 year and $60 mil deal probably. He could well end up costing $80-$90 mil overall or even more depending upon the negotiating bid fee. And it's not crazy to think Kuroda might even end up generating a pick when he leaves his next team also. And Kuroda is about as proven a commodity of a starting pitcher you can get. Certainly in the top 10 range over the last 4 years in a row. And quite frankly, we probably don't get Kuroda anyway right, but we force the Yanks to spend more to keep him. It's win/win. I don't see why Kuroda isn't being considered more other than that he has expressed a desire to pitch for the Yanks or go to Japan. Lots of players express a desire to stay where they are before they beeline it out of town for a bigger deal. He has already done that with the Dodgers. It would seem to be possible that he might be willing to do it again, especially considering the situation in NYC next year which might well be in a transition mode.
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