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Post by brendan98 on Aug 24, 2013 22:13:28 GMT -5
Myles Smith with 3 perfect innings today, he has been very good in his first 4 professional outings, even if he is older than his competition.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 25, 2013 6:22:57 GMT -5
Myles Smith with 3 perfect innings today, he has been very good in his first 4 professional outings, even if he is older than his competition. This is factual. Now, let's see where he is in 3 years.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 30, 2013 22:51:34 GMT -5
3 more hitless innings today, Myles Smith has not given up a hit since his first outing of the season (and career). He has now pitched 11 innings and given up 1 hit, he issued his first 2 walks today, and now has 2 BB and 11 K on the season, his BA against is something ridiculous like .033. Not saying it means anything, but I am glad the Sox got him signed.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 30, 2013 23:00:31 GMT -5
Hey, the college guy is pitching in GCL. So stat is meaningless.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 31, 2013 3:53:07 GMT -5
Hey, the college guy is pitching in GCL. So stat is meaningless. It has a somewhat different meaning because he is not pitching at the right level, but it's as far from meaningless as anything could be. GCL hitters are on average 1.5 years younger than hitters in short-season A ball. Do you really think that the guys who Smith has utterly dominated would have hit him hard if given another year or two of development? No, because if that were the case, we would see much bigger differences between low minor league levels than we do, and it wouldn't take guys four and five years to get from the low minors to the majors. No, these guys would have hit him somewhat better. There are plenty of guys who are a year too young or too old for their level, and we don't dismiss their performances as meaningless. We just adjust them. In this case, he has a 2.02 FIP. A ballpark figure for that at Lowell would be 2.75. You can get a 2.84 FIP by giving him 8 SO and 3 BB (and a HB) instead of 11 and 2, so that's a conservative adjustment. So that's the extent of the meaninglessness because he's pitching a level below where he ought to be: instead of a dazzling 11 K and 2 BB in 11 IP, he'd have a really good 8 K and 3 BB. (The hits allowed are less significant to begin with, but you can probably add a couple.) (Note that if this logic doesn't work, then the entire methodology of MLEs evaporates, because it is based on measuring the performance of guys who played in the same year at two adjacent levels, and comparing them under the assumption that the differences are meaningful (logical and linear) rather that meaningless (weird and nonlinear and disjunctive).)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2013 12:15:07 GMT -5
I tend to more or less ignore stats below full-season ball beyond a general "he's playing well" or "he's playing terribly" myself. There is just such wild variance in the skill levels of players at these levels that it's not particularly worth evaluating the same way you might evaluate a Double-A stat line.
Smith is doing what you'd hope he'd be doing in rookie ball as a college pitcher who can reach back and throw mid-90s. Very few hitters at that level can catch up to that kind of heat. It's great to see, but it doesn't change my opinion of him one bit yet.
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