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Post by nebraska4sox on Sept 19, 2013 14:58:42 GMT -5
I would like to see Morales over Britton. Morales has really good stuff when he throws strikes. However this year he has had a Jekyl and Hyde approach to throwing strikes.
He has been much better lately sans the 12th inning last night.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 19, 2013 15:09:41 GMT -5
I thought Morales has actually looked pretty good since he's been back. Before last night he's gone 8 innings giving up 4 hits and 3 walks and only 1 run.
Then there was last night, but to his credit that was THREE GROUND BALLS!!! which was pretty frustrating. But that's what happens in baseball, the difference between a base hit and grounding into 4 double plays can be a few inches.
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Post by nebraska4sox on Sept 19, 2013 15:24:57 GMT -5
This may be completely out of left field, but I would not be oppossed to putting Steven Wright on the postseason roster. He is an asset out of the bullpen and has looked unhittable for better parts of months this year in the pros and in the minors.
Just a thought would be good to bring a guy in who can throw a knuckler in the 7th and 8th innings of a close game when guys are looking for hard and fast.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 19, 2013 15:34:39 GMT -5
This may be completely out of left field, but I would not be oppossed to putting Steven Wright on the postseason roster. He is an asset out of the bullpen and has looked unhittable for better parts of months this year in the pros and in the minors. Just a thought would be good to bring a guy in who can throw a knuckler in the 7th and 8th innings of a close game when guys are looking for hard and fast. Yeah, but then we'd have to put Doug Mirabelli on the playoff roster....
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Post by nebraska4sox on Sept 19, 2013 15:52:19 GMT -5
True, if we had someone to catch him would be a huge asset.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 19, 2013 16:15:23 GMT -5
Lavarnway can catch him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2013 20:16:24 GMT -5
Bold where announced:
9/20, TOR: Lester (5dr) 9/21, TOR: Buchholz (5dr) 9/22, TOR: Doubront (N/A) 9/23, off 9/24, COL: Peavy (5dr) 9/25, COL: TBA (My guess is they give Wright the start and transition Dempster to the bullpen) 9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Lackey (7dr) 9/28, BAL: Lester (7dr) 9/29, BAL: Buchholz (7dr) 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/3 10/4, ALDS gm 1: Lester (5dr) 10/5, gm 2: Buchholz (5dr) 10/6 10/7, gm 3: Lackey (8dr) 10/8, gm 4: Peavy (11 dr) 10/9 10/10, gm 5: Lester (5dr)
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Post by mjammz on Sept 19, 2013 22:27:03 GMT -5
Bold where announced: 9/20, TOR: Lester (5dr) 9/21, TOR: Buchholz (5dr) 9/22, TOR: Doubront (N/A) 9/23, off 9/24, COL: Peavy (5dr) 9/25, COL: TBA (My guess is they give Wright the start and transition Dempster to the bullpen) 9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Lackey (7dr) 9/28, BAL: Lester (7dr) 9/29, BAL: Buchholz (7dr) 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/3 10/4, ALDS gm 1: Lester (5dr) 10/5, gm 2: Buchholz (5dr) 10/6 10/7, gm 3: Lackey (8dr) 10/8, gm 4: Peavy (11 dr) 10/9 10/10, gm 5: Lester (5dr) I tend to agree with that. My only thought is since Lackey has pitched so much better in Fenway Park maybe they have him start Game 2 and go with Buchholz in game 3. I still think its likely the way you have it set up, but its something they are considering I'm sure.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2013 22:49:05 GMT -5
Interesting. I Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB Home 5 3 .625 2.63 12 12 0 0 0 0 82.0 77 29 24 7 13 0 69 2 0 1 331 1.098 7.6 5.31 Away 4 9 .308 4.39 15 15 0 1 0 0 92.1 94 46 45 15 24 0 79 4 0 3 391 1.278 7.7 3.29
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 9/19/2013.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 20, 2013 12:44:20 GMT -5
I was thinking the same thing as mloyko. Lackey shrugged off his home/road split as coincidence, but you have to wonder - don't you?
My instincts tell me you want Lester and Buchholz pitching the first two games, but the stats tell me you want to use Lackey at home as often as possible and he'd wind up the Game 2 and 6 starters at Fenway.
But I can understand that the Sox want Buchholz and Lester to be guaranteed to pitch as often as possible.
It's kind of funny how when the season started it was Buchholz and Lester leading the charge, but then Buchholz got hurt and Lester reverted to 2012 and it was Lackey and Doubront who kept the Sox rolling until the past month with now Buchholz (assuming/hoping he gets his fastball command back)and Lester performing like they did in April.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 20, 2013 15:35:24 GMT -5
I'm assuming that chart was actually before last nights games considering he is listed as having 0 CG at home. If that's the case, that's scary good. I personally say make Lester your #3 with such a dramatic split. I know people want to say, "Lester's earned it by staying healthy all year". I think that's a crap argument. What good is a guy staying healthy if he's giving up 6+ runs a start over the same time the other player is chilling on the DL? Now, Lester pitching the way he is right now easily makes him the best pitcher on this staff at this point in time. However, Buchholz hasn't fully regained control of his FB yet. If/once he does that, Buchholz will once again be the best pitcher on this staff, even with Lester pitching the way he has.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 20, 2013 15:41:51 GMT -5
Only argument for Dempster making the playoff roster over Doubront I can come up with - barring injury - is that Dempster has been fairly solid first time through line-ups this year where as Doubront seems to need to "get through" the 1st then settles down, for the most part. @alexspeier 12m Farrell also says Dempster will work out of bullpen going forward. Sox envision him as a weapon, not a long man. Stuff could play up... @alexspeier 10m ... And Farrell notes sharpness Dempster has exhibited in first couple innings suggests ability to make an impact.OK, I'll admit it. I am Iron Man John Farrell.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Sept 23, 2013 10:04:16 GMT -5
9/24, COL: Lackey 9/25, COL: Peavy 9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz 9/28, BAL: TBA 9/29, BAL: TBA 9/30 10/1 10/2 10/3 10/4, ALDS gm 1: Lester 10/5, gm 2: Buchholz 10/6 10/7, gm 3: Lackey 10/8, gm 4: Peavy 10/9 10/10, gm 5: Lester
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Post by okin15 on Sept 23, 2013 12:08:07 GMT -5
9/24, COL: Lackey9/25, COL: Peavy9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz9/28, BAL: TBA 9/29, BAL: TBA Except Farrel has already said Peavy is starting tomorrow, no? And also that Wednesday should be a bullpen game... and also that Buch, Lack, and Lester will throw in the Baltimore series. 9/23 (Lester throws an extra side session or long toss) 9/24, COL: Peavy (Lackey throws sim game or long toss?) 9/25, COL: Bullpen 9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz 9/28, BAL: Lester (7 days' rest) 9/29, BAL: Lackey (Peavy throws extra side) 9/30 10/1 10/2 (Buchholz throws sim game or long toss?) 10/3 (Peavy throws simulated game) 10/4, ALDS gm 1: Lester (5 days rest) 10/5, gm 2: Lackey (5) 10/6 10/7, gm 3: Buchholz (8) 10/8, gm 4: Peavy 10/9 10/10, gm 5: Lester
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 23, 2013 12:37:44 GMT -5
If the Sox are carrying 11 pitchers, then you have the four starters of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Peavy.
The 7 in the bullpen would be Uehara, Breslow, Tazawa, Dempster, Workman, Morales, and Doubront
The regulars would be Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Nava, Salty, Drew, and Middlebrooks.
The 5 reserves would be Ross, Carp, Bogaerts, Gomes, and Berry.
The only thing I could see differently for the ALDS is if they don't feel Ellsbury is mostly healthy, they might drop a pitcher, probably Doubront (if he doesn't take to relieving) or Morales and they'd keep Jackie Bradley Jr.
I would hope/think Bogaerts would get the call over McDonald.
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Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2013 14:31:38 GMT -5
9/24, COL: Lackey9/25, COL: Peavy9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz9/28, BAL: TBA 9/29, BAL: TBA Except Farrel has already said Peavy is starting tomorrow, no? And also that Wednesday should be a bullpen game... and also that Buch, Lack, and Lester will throw in the Baltimore series. 9/23 (Lester throws an extra side session or long toss) 9/24, COL: Peavy (Lackey throws sim game or long toss?) 9/25, COL: Bullpen 9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz 9/28, BAL: Lester (7 days' rest) 9/29, BAL: Lackey (Peavy throws extra side) www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130922-red-sox-juggle-rotation-for-final-week.eceIt's actually: 9/24, COL: Lackey9/25, COL: Peavy9/26, off 9/27, BAL: Buchholz9/28, BAL: Lester 9/29, BAL: Lackey Brian MacPherson speculates that this means Lester/Lackey/Buchholz/Peavy or Buchholz/Lester/Lackey/Peavy, but the off days are such that it could be pretty much any order Farrell wants it to be, regardless of who pitches in Baltimore.
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Post by tizzle on Sept 23, 2013 15:30:20 GMT -5
I think it'll be Lester/Lackey/Buchholz/Peavy and Peavy will pitch an inning or two out of the pen Sunday just to keep him sharp.
Bullpen: Koji/Breslow/Tazawa/Workman/Morales/Dempster. One spot left, which I'm assuming is down to Doubront or Thornton.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2013 16:14:10 GMT -5
If the Sox are carrying 11 pitchers, then you have the four starters of Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Peavy. The 7 in the bullpen would be Uehara, Breslow, Tazawa, Dempster, Workman, Morales, and Doubront The regulars would be Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Nava, Salty, Drew, and Middlebrooks. The 5 reserves would be Ross, Carp, Bogaerts, Gomes, and Berry. The only thing I could see differently for the ALDS is if they don't feel Ellsbury is mostly healthy, they might drop a pitcher, probably Doubront (if he doesn't take to relieving) or Morales and they'd keep Jackie Bradley Jr. I would hope/think Bogaerts would get the call over McDonald. I'd actually rather have both Britton and Morales over Doubront. Britton can come in and just get 1 guy out, kind of like rich Hill used to do and Doubront isn't going to start, plus his relief work this year was an unmitigated disaster.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2013 16:19:37 GMT -5
Lefties are hitting .237/.297/.325 against Doubront, .278/.349/.361 against Britton. Also, Doubront's relief work this season consisted of one appearance in May.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 23, 2013 16:22:03 GMT -5
Doubront's utility as a long man is also kind of redundant when you already have Dempster and Workman out there.
Honestly wouldn't mind them going down to ten pitchers. I mean, really, it's the playoffs. If you end up having to use Workman you're either not riding your best pitchers hard enough or you've already lost the game.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 23, 2013 16:27:36 GMT -5
Lefties are hitting .237/.297/.325 against Doubront, .278/.349/.361 against Britton. Also, Doubront's relief work this season consisted of one appearance in May. You could make a lot of arguments about this, and I think it's a fairly tough call, but I'd probably favor Doubront on the most basic logic that he's a better pitcher than Britton. The lack of bullpen experience and his own lack of enthusiasm for the assignment do give me pause though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2013 18:17:08 GMT -5
Doubront's utility as a long man is also kind of redundant when you already have Dempster and Workman out there. Except that Doubront is much better than Dempster and probably better than Workman, and the alternatives are not just long relief options, they also (in an order TBD, perhaps) constitute your 2nd and 3rd RH set-up men--one of whom could be left off the DS rsoter to open up a spot for Bradley. The point of having Doubront as a long man is that he can go six or seven if needed without their being any ripple affect on the rest off the pen. Doubront is unquestionably one of the 10 best pitchers on the team. If he's not on the post-season roster, they've screwed up.
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 23, 2013 19:51:49 GMT -5
Doubront should be on the roster before Workman if you're going to go down to 10 pitchers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2013 20:25:19 GMT -5
Interesting [Lackey's splits]. I Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB Home 5 3 .625 2.63 12 12 0 0 0 0 82.0 77 29 24 7 13 0 69 2 0 1 331 1.098 7.6 5.31 Away 4 9 .308 4.39 15 15 0 1 0 0 92.1 94 46 45 15 24 0 79 4 0 3 391 1.278 7.7 3.29
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 9/19/2013. It seems to be mostly random, with a small real component. First, all 5 of his games with Lavarnway behind the plate were on the road, and he had a 5.81 ERA in those games. Admittedly, just a 3.52 FIP, but I'm not confident including these games. Excluding them, the significant differences are in strike % and HR / Contact or HR / OF-FB. His home strike % is .698, his road .631, and that has a 1 in 1200 chance in being random. However, his swinging strike % is unchanged (.103 vs. .100). He gets more looking strikes, .184 to .169, which has a 34% chance of being random. More pitches are put into play at home, .207 vs. .190, which has a 31% of being random. The biggest difference is in foul balls, .204 vs. .173, which has a 6% chance. The end result is a .213 vs. .199 K% (68% random), and an .041 vs. .063 BB% (24% random). Conclusion: he seems to have genuinely had somewhat sharper command at home, although that's more clear in the underlying data than the end results. His HRC is .030 at home, .065 on the road, which has a 7.7% chance of being random. His HR/OF-FB, .099 versus .279, has a 1 in 111 chance of being random. However, let's use HitTrackerOnline to list his cheapest HRs, based on the # of parks they would have been home runs in: 0, Erik Kratz, 5/29 at Phi 1, Dom Brown, 5/29 at Phi 3, Adam Jones, 7/26 at Bal (5th inning) 4, Hanley Ramirez, 8/23 at LAD 8, Adam Jones, 7/26 at Bal (1st inning) 9, Ryan Howard, 5/29 at Phi That's half of all of his road homers, and accounts for all of the difference in HR / Contact. There was no difference at all in HRs that would have been homers in 10 or more MLB parks. So the big ERA difference is mostly bad luck on homers on the road, probably some from only working with Lavarnway on the road, and that leaves a small real component from throwing more strikes. I'm guessing his actual home / road command split is typical. (A lot of Sox pitxhers through the years have been better at home despite Fenway's park factor; that's a separate topic for investigation.)
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dd
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Post by dd on Sept 24, 2013 9:50:11 GMT -5
Eric, I know I'm way over my head in this analysis, but if you're going to look at homers that wouldn't be out elsewhere, don't you need also to include fly balls for outs that would have been out of other parks?
Edit: typo
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