SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 11:23:02 GMT -5
As of now, it appears the sox have secured a play-off spot. Usually, a play-off pitching rotation is 4 guys, not 5. Currently, the Red Sox have 6 adequate major-league starters right now in Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront, and Dempster. Most of them are not on innings limits, and if they are, it doesn't look like they will reach it.
The question is, what do you think the play-off pitching rotation will be?
My list:
1. Buchholz
2. Lester
3. Peavy
4. Lackey or Doubront
I think that with the way Dempster has pitched this year, he doesn't even earn a consideration of earning a play-off rotation spot.
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2013 11:43:48 GMT -5
I think that with the way Lackey has pitched this year, he has clearly earned one of the top two spots.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 10, 2013 11:53:10 GMT -5
Its way too early to state the rotation, which seems weird considering how close to the playoffs we are. Buchholz is certainly the biggest variable. It's just a complete unknown how he's going to pitch leading up to the playoffs since his first start in months is tonight.
Lester has pitched so well lately that he's the de facto number 1 right now. If he's pitching like this, he's earned it and it will be hard for Clay to pitch well enough to take that from him regardless of his earlier numbers. Lackey has been the most consistent for this team all year, but that doesn't give him a top 2 spot. Lester at his best (which he is now), is just better. Peavy has also been just as good or better than Lackey all year, especially if you take out his 2 starts with a broken rib which is very fair to do when analyzing performance for the post season rotation. Farrell may side with his guy, Lackey, but Peavy has been equally as good if not better. That's not a knock on Lackey, it speaks to how good they both have been.
I never thought we'd see a stretch like this from Lester again, it's a pleasant surprise which makes me question his mental makeup more than anything, but I'll take it while it lasts.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2013 11:53:44 GMT -5
You can fiddle with the order, but I think it's clear the four names are Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Peavy. Doubront is nearing a career-high in innings and has scuffled lately, and he's also had bullpen experience in the past.
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2013 11:55:30 GMT -5
xFIP:
1. Buchholz 3.18
2. Workman* 3.31
3. Lackey 3.46
4. Lester 3.97
5. Doubront 4.08
6. Dempster 4.16
7. Peavy** 4.40
SIERA:
1. Workman* 3.34
2. Buchholz 3.47
3. Lackey 3.53
4. Lester 4.01
5. Doubront 4.20
6. Dempster 4.21
7. Peavy** 4.60
* As a starter, 3 games
** For the Red Sox, 7 games
So there you have it, the playoff rotation should be Buchholz, Lackey, Lester and Workman.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 10, 2013 12:00:35 GMT -5
You can fiddle with the order, but I think it's clear the four names are Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Peavy. Doubront is nearing a career-high in innings and has scuffled lately, and he's also had bullpen experience in the past. Great points. Lackey's velocity has been down from a high of 94-95 1st few innings his last few starts, a tell he needs a skip and is tiring, or is just getting up against a wall after missing an entire year. A candidate for a later start, or my 1st starter, depends after his skip either way as he's been my ace all season since Buchulz went down. Lester has not been steady enough, though of late seems to be on another good streak and think the #3, in that scenario would be Peavy if things went "right" the rest of the way. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Sept 10, 2013 12:06:50 GMT -5
ummm yeaaaaa I'm going to need you to come in tomorrow.
That rotation shouldn't be at all considered. And Peavy's numbers are greatly affected by one poor start where he gave up 3 HRs so in a 7 start sample, i'm not really ready to compare that to the rest of the numbers. I'd be much more inclined to use his numbers in all his starts minus the 2 with a broken rib. Obviously, you don't ignore the 1 poor Boston start, but if you want to look at his body of work look at the entire season (minus the broken rib starts)
|
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Sept 10, 2013 12:11:09 GMT -5
You can fiddle with the order, but I think it's clear the four names are Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Peavy. Doubront is nearing a career-high in innings and has scuffled lately, and he's also had bullpen experience in the past. This.....and it really shouldn't be too much of a brain buster at this point. Of course we need to see how Buchholz is pitching....but assuming he looks like a better option than Doubront/Dempster, he should be good to go. I think the more pressing question, is which player gets left out of both the rotation and bullpen. I'd imagine they take only one of Doubront or Dempster, and if I had to choose today I'd go with Doubront. |
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2013 12:28:54 GMT -5
ummm yeaaaaa I'm going to need you to come in tomorrow. That rotation shouldn't be at all considered. And Peavy's numbers are greatly affected by one poor start where he gave up 3 HRs so in a 7 start sample, i'm not really ready to compare that to the rest of the numbers. I'd be much more inclined to use his numbers in all his starts minus the 2 with a broken rib. Obviously, you don't ignore the 1 poor Boston start, but if you want to look at his body of work look at the entire season (minus the broken rib starts) And yet, despite those 3 HRs, his HR/FB rate in this 7 game sample is 6.1% vs. a career rate of 9.6%. Anyway, if I didn't make a mistake, Peavy's xFIP for the season without his starts on May 30th and June 4th is 3.79. |
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 10, 2013 12:32:08 GMT -5
I want to see three things in the next couple weeks that should ultimately shape the playoff rotation
Is Jon Lester as good as he's been the last 3 weeks.
How will Felix doubront respond to a skipped start
Will Clay Buchholz pick up where he left off.
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2013 12:37:52 GMT -5
Is Jon Lester as good as he's been the last 3 weeks. Speaking of Jon Lester, in his last 6 starts he has a HR/FB rate of 0.00%. That's not going to be sustainable going forward. |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 10, 2013 12:43:53 GMT -5
Pretty much what Jmei said.
The four are Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Peavy, not necessarily in that order.
We don't know how well Buchholz will pitch down the stretch. If he was pitching the way he was before his injury you would easily anoint him Game 1 starter, but we don't know that to be the case right now.
My guess is they'll go Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, and Peavy, but I would think they'd also factor in the opponent as will and consider these four starter's histories against the team or look at home/road splits and try to take advantage of that.
I don't see Doubront or Dempster starting unless there is an injury and given the uncertainty of middle relief I hope Doubront can be a significant factor if/once they straighten him out.
|
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 10, 2013 12:56:03 GMT -5
Yeah, don't think the question of who's in the playoff rotation is all that interesting since we know who the names are, and the order depends so much on Buchholz's and Lester's performance here in September. I hope it's Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy (or Peavy, Lackey) since that will mean Buchholz is back, and I think a healthy Buchholz is a better pitcher than a healthy Lester.
But, the bullpen is much more fluid. I think Doubront ends up there and is potentially very useful. Koji is a lock, as is Breslow. Tazawa and Workman are the RH set-up men that I think are assured of a spot. So that's five ... they'll probably have six guys in the 'pen, so who's the last one? Morales? Thornton? Britton? They almost don't need another lefty with Breslow and Doubront, so Dempster? If he shortens his repetoire and concentrates on FB/slider, can he be a solid guy to get RHs out? He can K people when he's on.
|
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 10, 2013 14:00:25 GMT -5
Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, Lackey is my personal preference. What it ends up being is up for grabs but its fun to speculate.
Lester has been very up and down. Peavy has been more consistent and his line has been messed up by Farrell leaving him in too long against the Royals and MFYs.
Lackey has been good but got lit up fairly recently.
|
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 10, 2013 14:10:38 GMT -5
This question can't be answered until we see 4 starts from Buchholz. His early season great run is meaningless right now. After that much time off, it's like a new season. He can re-establish himself in the upcoming 4 starts. But, I seriously doubt if it's enough to push him ahead of Lester and pitch 2 games. Do we want him to pitch at home or on the road? Lackey and Peavy seem comfortable out west if Oakland. My inclination would be him in Gm 2 if he's performing ok. Might get a very good 6 innings out of him. Don't really want him on the mound with our season on the line in Gm 4 if we're down 2-1.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2013 14:19:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2013 14:19:44 GMT -5
Do we want him to pitch at home or on the road? Lackey and Peavy seem comfortable out west if Oakland. The bigger the other team's ballpark the more we want Peavy (or Workman!) pitching there. GB/FB: 7. Peavy 0.61 6. Workman 0.67 5. Dumpster 1.08 4. Lester 1.21 3. Doubront 1.27 2. Lackey 1.40 1. Buchholz 1.62 EDIT: As a reliever, Workman has gotten many more groundballs, so the above might be a SSS fluke, but of course it might also reflect a different pitch mix. |
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Sept 10, 2013 14:22:52 GMT -5
This question can't be answered until we see 4 starts from Buchholz. His early season great run is meaningless right now. After that much time off, it's like a new season. He can re-establish himself in the upcoming 4 starts. But, I seriously doubt if it's enough to push him ahead of Lester and pitch 2 games. I agree that we have to wait on Buchholz, but I think Lackey is easily the guy you want pitching two games. In either case with Buchholz, I think that either extra rest, or extra work would be helpful to round him into playoff form, and that he should be pushed till at least game 2 of the ALDS... should we make it that far #knockonwood |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 10, 2013 15:08:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by polarbear91 on Sept 10, 2013 16:39:35 GMT -5
Especially regarding the point of utilizing the off days so the bullpen can be deployed in the event Buchholz (or whomever you designate as the most likely) can't last long. Has more bearing on rotation order than just 1-4 best to worst choice.
|
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 10, 2013 18:33:50 GMT -5
I'm a proponent of Buchholz as much as anyone here but we can't project him to be near what he was. The best bet is to hope he's the #4. Even that might be a stretch but if I had to guess, that is where he goes. A lot depends on the next 2-3 starts. If we can get him to the WS, he might well be better.
|
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 11, 2013 8:18:55 GMT -5
I'm a proponent of Buchholz as much as anyone here but we can't project him to be near what he was. The best bet is to hope he's the #4. Even that might be a stretch but if I had to guess, that is where he goes. A lot depends on the next 2-3 starts. If we can get him to the WS, he might well be better. He had a pretty minor injury and just came back and shut the Rays down in the biggest game of the year. Wouldn't surprise me if he returned to form and got the #1 nod. Not a stretch at all to hope for that. Lester has been rocked many times this season and Lackey/Peavy have been good but not #1 material. Lester got lit up by the Diamondbacks fairly recently, and that type of stuff just doesn't happen with Clay out there because he doesn't walk as many people. |
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Sept 11, 2013 8:49:38 GMT -5
I like Speiers rotation and his reasoning makes sense. I do agree a lot rides on Buchs next few starts though.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2013 11:04:01 GMT -5
Lester got lit up by the Diamondbacks fairly recently, and that type of stuff just doesn't happen with Clay out there because he doesn't walk as many people. Lester didn't walk anyone in the Diamondbacks game and had a 8/0 K/BB IIRC. That game was mostly bad luck on balls in play, and Lester has been lights-out for the last dozen starts or so. Also, Lester has a 2.84 BB/9 this year and a 3.26 career mark. Buchholz is at 3.02 this year and 3.46 career. Buchholz's control has never been great. He's succeeded this year by basically not giving up home runs (48.3% GB, 3% HR/FB) and with a much-improved strikeout rate (8.76 K/9). |
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 11, 2013 11:43:41 GMT -5
Good point.
Just my own personal opinion and 2 cents from watching them both.
|
|
|
