SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 12:44:41 GMT -5
For what reason would the Rockies trade a bona fide above average (at least) to elite corner outfielder, after already trading Dickerson, AND McGee, for Castillo (with question marks and a long but manageable contract), Henry Owens (a 3rd to 5th starter now), Michael Chavis, who hasn't proven much of anything besides raw power and a bad two-strike approach, and a mystery low-A guy? If you'd easily do that trade if you're the Sox, that likely means the Rockies wouldn't. Of course, they did basically exchange Tulo for Jose Reyes, but expecting them to trade two All-Star caliber players for Castillo/Owens/Chavis/? isn't exactly realistic. I'm not sure if the Rockies can ever get a package they hope to get with Gonzalez. Maybe the Sox would have to throw in Chavis and Sam Travis or something. I think the concept of this deal is a good one. The Rockies are clearly rebuilding and looking for young talent and young talented starting pitching.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 8, 2016 12:51:37 GMT -5
For what reason would the Rockies trade a bona fide above average (at least) to elite corner outfielder, after already trading Dickerson, AND McGee, for Castillo (with question marks and a long but manageable contract), Henry Owens (a 3rd to 5th starter now), Michael Chavis, who hasn't proven much of anything besides raw power and a bad two-strike approach, and a mystery low-A guy? If you'd easily do that trade if you're the Sox, that likely means the Rockies wouldn't. Of course, they did basically exchange Tulo for Jose Reyes, but expecting them to trade two All-Star caliber players for Castillo/Owens/Chavis/? isn't exactly realistic. I'm not sure if the Rockies can ever get a package they hope to get with Gonzalez. Maybe the Sox would have to throw in Chavis and Sam Travis or something. I think the concept of this deal is a good one. The Rockies are clearly rebuilding and looking for young talent and young talented starting pitching. But I don't think Castillo has much value, Chavis doesn't have much besides betting on him attaining his ceiling, and a low A prospect doesn't add much. Travis would, I think, but Owens seems to be the only one in that group with significant value (if Travis isn't included), and the Rockies don't have to trade Gonzalez now that they've moved Dickerson. Any trade of Gonzalez now would be for a blow-you-away sort of package and that certainly isn't that, and I wouldn't want the Sox to pursue him at a big cost.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 12:54:13 GMT -5
If the Sox were to give up two top 10 prospects in Sam Travis and Chavis, I think that could make it more interesting. Owens just graduated after being a top 100 prospect. Maybe throw in Trey Ball as a final throw in.
Owens, Ball, Travis, Chavis, and Castillo for Gonzalez and MgGee. That's a deal I would still do.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 13:10:59 GMT -5
Geez, throw in Hanley and Pablo too. Then we can get rid of everyone who sucks all at once.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 8, 2016 13:22:23 GMT -5
.....and the change is one of the three to five best in baseball (or the best, depending on your source/criteria). This is me being curious, but what sources are there that would suggest this? I did some quick searches through fangraphs and BB and couldn't find anything that would point to a top 10 Change up (but still a good one). If I had to guess top 5 off my head I would say Greinke, Sale, Felix, Hamels, and Price (Buch too if he didn't "lose feel" of the changeup so frequently) It's based on this post, which in turn cites PITCHf/x data. I'm not sure what "effectiveness" means, though (wOBA against? whiffs?), and there are your typical small sample size warnings.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Feb 8, 2016 13:31:44 GMT -5
.....and the change is one of the three to five best in baseball (or the best, depending on your source/criteria). This is me being curious, but what sources are there that would suggest this? I did some quick searches through fangraphs and BB and couldn't find anything that would point to a top 10 Change up (but still a good one). If I had to guess top 5 off my head I would say Greinke, Sale, Felix, Hamels, and Price (Buch too if he didn't "lose feel" of the changeup so frequently) I started out in a totally non-scientific fashion, basically looking at weighted pitch values (/100) on fangraphs, but Eric posted the results of an analysis of the raw data in the Owens thread. Don't know how to link it, but I think it's on the second page. Admittedly, I did not include Adam Warren in my pitch value perusal, which makes me even more ecstatic that the Yankees traded him.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 8, 2016 13:38:41 GMT -5
If you look at linear weights pitch values on Fangraphs, of starting pitchers with 60+ IP, Owens comes in ninth by BIS data and fifth by PITCHf/x (once we take out Jimenez, who PITCHf/x only characterized as throwing a handful of changeups).
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 13:47:45 GMT -5
Geez, throw in Hanley and Pablo too. Then we can get rid of everyone who sucks all at once. It's a good package. Travis is a good hitting first baseman that could develop even better offensive numbers in Colorado. Chavis' power would play well there. Ball could maybe be a reliever someday. Owens is the prize and Castillo is the throw in.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 13:51:15 GMT -5
I'm not sure if the Rockies can ever get a package they hope to get with Gonzalez. Maybe the Sox would have to throw in Chavis and Sam Travis or something. I think the concept of this deal is a good one. The Rockies are clearly rebuilding and looking for young talent and young talented starting pitching. But I don't think Castillo has much value, Chavis doesn't have much besides betting on him attaining his ceiling, and a low A prospect doesn't add much. Travis would, I think, but Owens seems to be the only one in that group with significant value (if Travis isn't included), and the Rockies don't have to trade Gonzalez now that they've moved Dickerson. Any trade of Gonzalez now would be for a blow-you-away sort of package and that certainly isn't that, and I wouldn't want the Sox to pursue him at a big cost. Most teams could look at Gonzalez and say the ballpark inflates his numbers, maybe that leads to them not trading him but a package like that could get their heads to turn. Owens and Travis isn't nothing to sniff away from.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 13:57:09 GMT -5
Geez, throw in Hanley and Pablo too. Then we can get rid of everyone who sucks all at once. It's a good package. Travis is a good hitting first baseman that could develop even better offensive numbers in Colorado. Chavis' power would play well there. Ball could maybe be a reliever someday. Owens is the prize and Castillo is the throw in. At this point, Chavis and Ball look like they might not be major league players at all. That could change, but those aren't the kind of guys that add any value to a trade. Travis isn't even a top 100 prospect. If I was running the Rockies, I'd just hang up without saying anything if offered that.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 14:05:13 GMT -5
It's a good package. Travis is a good hitting first baseman that could develop even better offensive numbers in Colorado. Chavis' power would play well there. Ball could maybe be a reliever someday. Owens is the prize and Castillo is the throw in. At this point, Chavis and Ball look like they might not be major league players at all. That could change, but those aren't the kind of guys that add any value to a trade. Travis isn't even a top 100 prospect. If I was running the Rockies, I'd just hang up without saying anything if offered that. Those two types of guys is the exact kind of players the Sox should go after if they're looking to trade at the deadline. What happens if Gonzalez goes on the dl sometime in the first half? I think that could swing the value in the Sox favor. It's going to be impossible to trade for starting pitching if the Sox need it and I don't want the Sox to do that. They have the depth. Taking away Owens would deplete that kind of depth but they still could be okay in that department even if they traded him. Edit-I don't know how the Rockies could hang up the phone when Owens is everything that they're looking for right now in a trade.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 8, 2016 14:17:46 GMT -5
At this point, Chavis and Ball look like they might not be major league players at all. That could change, but those aren't the kind of guys that add any value to a trade. Travis isn't even a top 100 prospect. If I was running the Rockies, I'd just hang up without saying anything if offered that. Those two types of guys is the exact kind of players the Sox should go after if they're looking to trade at the deadline. What happens if Gonzalez goes on the dl sometime in the first half? I think that could swing the value in the Sox favor. It's going to be impossible to trade for starting pitching if the Sox need it and I don't want the Sox to do that. They have the depth. Taking away Owens would deplete that kind of depth but they still could be okay in that department even if they traded him. Edit-I don't know how the Rockies could hang up the phone when Owens is everything that they're looking for right now in a trade. But why is Owens everything they're looking for in a trade? It isn't like he's Steven Matz. He doesn't have elite lefty upside at this point, so he isn't like an insanely valuable prospect.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 14:27:14 GMT -5
At this point, Chavis and Ball look like they might not be major league players at all. That could change, but those aren't the kind of guys that add any value to a trade. Travis isn't even a top 100 prospect. If I was running the Rockies, I'd just hang up without saying anything if offered that. Those two types of guys is the exact kind of players the Sox should go after if they're looking to trade at the deadline. What happens if Gonzalez goes on the dl sometime in the first half? I think that could swing the value in the Sox favor. It's going to be impossible to trade for starting pitching if the Sox need it and I don't want the Sox to do that. They have the depth. Taking away Owens would deplete that kind of depth but they still could be okay in that department even if they traded him. Edit-I don't know how the Rockies could hang up the phone when Owens is everything that they're looking for right now in a trade. What if Owens tears his elbow the day after the trade? This whole conversation makes no sense. We need Owens more than McGee and Cargo. They don't need to make this trade either.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Feb 8, 2016 14:57:11 GMT -5
Rockies hitters will always be risky to me. Especially someone like Cargo who doesn't do anything on the road. I believe that Rockies hitters end up being worse in the rod than they normally would, but the unknown/variables in these situations make me prefer to just avoid taking risks on their players regardless. How much worse can he really be compared to Castillo though? I mean even if he's 75% of the player outside of Colorado, that still would be 20-50% more productive then Castillo. I've never seen a more frustrating player than Castillo. His plus speed is negated by his slow time out the batters box. His strong defense and arm is negated by him making brainless mistakes at times in the field.The Fielding Bible people watch the video of every MLB play and actually score good and bad fielding plays that aren't otherwise measured. They have a huge comprehensive list (threw to the wrong base, missed the cutoff man, cut off a double and turned it into a single, etc.) and a system for converting their raw count of good and bad plays into runs saved or runs cost. Castillo is +2 runs in this metric in his mere 703 innings of fielding, on the way to his being +17 runs total. If you don't adjust for the smaller sample size (but do adjust for playing mostly LF), he's been a better defensive outfielder than Bradley. Personally, I vaguely remember him looking inexperienced in CF two years ago, but I don't recall him making a brainless mistake in LF last year. I do recall him playing the best Fenway LF I'd seen since Yaz, all the more remarkably so, given his lack of experience with the Wall. He's a defensive force who has plus offensive tools that are currently being kept inside a locked box, because of a bad swing path that produces a ridiculous amount of GBs and negates his plus power. There's already video evidence of improvement from late last year, and of course he'll continue to work on it. He is certainly a very good candidate for significant improvement, and an outside one for a J.D. Martinez-like offensive breakthrough. When we took a poll here, there was a strong consensus that, for all these reasons, you give Castillo a chance to play every day until at least mid-season and probably till the trade deadline. His defense is so good that his floor is not much below MLB average. He has very clear first-division starter upside. We can afford to give him a decent chance to see if he can get there.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Feb 8, 2016 15:32:39 GMT -5
BTW, I have Gonzalez as a +5 defender in LF, -1 in RF. That's solid, but it means he can't play CF, and you want to keep him out of RF in Fenway.
Since he doesn't hit LHP much at all, your LF becomes a strict platoon with him and Young, which means JBJ faces a lot more LHP. Holt becomes your backup to Mookie in RF, even against LHP, and Mookie has to play CF whenever JBJ is out. Which is to say that Castillo is not just your regular LF, he's your backup CF, so you're downgrading that position as well.
Since Gonzalez is already as much as a 1.5 win defensive downgrade, you'd have to be very certain of him being a substantial upgrade to Castillo offensively. And you're not. Given the salaries and years of control, I don't do that trade even up, although it's not as awful as Owens for McGee even up.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 15:38:42 GMT -5
Those two types of guys is the exact kind of players the Sox should go after if they're looking to trade at the deadline. What happens if Gonzalez goes on the dl sometime in the first half? I think that could swing the value in the Sox favor. It's going to be impossible to trade for starting pitching if the Sox need it and I don't want the Sox to do that. They have the depth. Taking away Owens would deplete that kind of depth but they still could be okay in that department even if they traded him. Edit-I don't know how the Rockies could hang up the phone when Owens is everything that they're looking for right now in a trade. What if Owens tears his elbow the day after the trade? This whole conversation makes no sense. We need Owens more than McGee and Cargo. They don't need to make this trade either. Cargo has a injury history, it's a solid point to bring up in trade talks. Do we need a guy that could be possibly 7th out of 9 guys in the depth chart at the starting rotation versus a everyday player and a bullpen piece?
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 15:42:00 GMT -5
BTW, I have Gonzalez as a +5 defender in LF, -1 in RF. That's solid, but it means he can't play CF, and you want to keep him out of RF in Fenway. Since he doesn't hit LHP much at all, your LF becomes a strict platoon with him and Young, which means JBJ faces a lot more LHP. Holt becomes your backup to Mookie in RF, even against LHP, and Mookie has to play CF whenever JBJ is out. Which is to say that Castillo is not just your regular LF, he's your backup CF, so you're downgrading that position as well. Since Gonzalez is already as much as a 1.5 win defensive downgrade, you'd have to be very certain of him being a substantial upgrade to Castillo offensively. And you're not. Given the salaries and years of control, I don't do that trade even up, although it's not as awful as Owens for McGee even up. I'm okay with JBJ hitting more LHP. He was a reverse split guy last year. Why would Holt be the backup RF when this team has Chris Young? Mookie is a good CF so I don't see that as a issue as well. Edit- Castillo is a corner outfield player as of right now for the Sox. I don't see him getting any starts in Cf, so really you're not downgrading there.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 15:45:05 GMT -5
Those two types of guys is the exact kind of players the Sox should go after if they're looking to trade at the deadline. What happens if Gonzalez goes on the dl sometime in the first half? I think that could swing the value in the Sox favor. It's going to be impossible to trade for starting pitching if the Sox need it and I don't want the Sox to do that. They have the depth. Taking away Owens would deplete that kind of depth but they still could be okay in that department even if they traded him. Edit-I don't know how the Rockies could hang up the phone when Owens is everything that they're looking for right now in a trade. But why is Owens everything they're looking for in a trade? It isn't like he's Steven Matz. He doesn't have elite lefty upside at this point, so he isn't like an insanely valuable prospect. Because the Rockies have zero pitching at all. They have a few good pitching prospects but they need more and they already have pitching prospects with elite ceiling. Owens would be a controllable good young rotation piece for years to come.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 16:02:25 GMT -5
Castillo's brainless mistakes came in Rf last year. He ran past a ball on the ground, another time he threw a ball into the stands with a runner on with less than 3 outs.
His entire swing is flawed. It's so long that it makes him a below average runner getting to first base. If he's hitting ground balls (which he is doing 65% of the time), he isn't really much of a offensive anything. There's a little power there and he can hit a little but the more ground balls he hits, the worse he gets. I don't have much faith in him outside of being a good forth outfielder.
He'd make a decent CF for most teams but the Sox don't use him there. He's kind of a wasted asset. The LF defense is nice but man wish there was more in there.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 16:30:17 GMT -5
Castillo's brainless mistakes came in Rf last year. He ran past a ball on the ground, another time he threw a ball into the stands with a runner on with less than 3 outs. His entire swing is flawed. It's so long that it makes him a below average runner getting to first base. If he's hitting ground balls (which he is doing 65% of the time), he isn't really much of a offensive anything. There's a little power there and he can hit a little but the more ground balls he hits, the worse he gets. I don't have much faith in him outside of being a good forth outfielder. He'd make a decent CF for most teams but the Sox don't use him there. He's kind of a wasted asset. The LF defense is nice but man wish there was more in there. The Rockies are reading this thread. You just blew the deal.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 16:31:34 GMT -5
Castillo's brainless mistakes came in Rf last year. He ran past a ball on the ground, another time he threw a ball into the stands with a runner on with less than 3 outs. His entire swing is flawed. It's so long that it makes him a below average runner getting to first base. If he's hitting ground balls (which he is doing 65% of the time), he isn't really much of a offensive anything. There's a little power there and he can hit a little but the more ground balls he hits, the worse he gets. I don't have much faith in him outside of being a good forth outfielder. He'd make a decent CF for most teams but the Sox don't use him there. He's kind of a wasted asset. The LF defense is nice but man wish there was more in there. The Rockies are reading this thread. You just blew the deal. Hahaha not if they use him in CF and traded Blackman or put Blackman in LF.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,665
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 8, 2016 16:45:58 GMT -5
What if Owens tears his elbow the day after the trade? This whole conversation makes no sense. We need Owens more than McGee and Cargo. They don't need to make this trade either. Cargo has a injury history, it's a solid point to bring up in trade talks. Do we need a guy that could be possibly 7th out of 9 guys in the depth chart at the starting rotation versus a everyday player and a bullpen piece? Yes we do need a guy like Owens who starts out possibly 7th on the depth chart. If Buchholz or Kelly or whoever else gets injured for a significant amount of time Owens is good a bet as anybody else to pick up the spot. I can see Wright making some spot starts. Sure Elias could be a candidate and Johnson, too, but I'd be surprised if Owens didn't wind up with at least 15 starts this season. And that's this season. How about next year and the year after that and the one after that? The Sox have Price, E-Rod, Porcello, and possibly Kelly locked down for awhile. That leaves other open spots. Henry Owens is the best candidate to take one of those spots, be highly effective and very cost efficient. That's a lot of value. I could be wrong but it looks like you're looking for problem spots to open up so you can dump Owens? I'm not saying he's untradeable, but why should the Sox deal him for a quick fix? Owens should be part of the future core of the team. They're thin on young starting pitchers coming up thru their system. It would be quite awhile before Espinoza or Kopech (if he sticks as a starter) would be ready. And I disagree with you as far as Owens vs Johnson. I'll take Owens over Johnson. I think Johnson might never be much more than a #4 starter. Owens, if his command doesn't really improve, might struggle to reach that category, but if his command improves, he has a much higher ceiling. #4/#5 type starters are pretty replaceable. Good #3 starters are expensive to replace.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 16:52:07 GMT -5
I could be wrong but it looks like you're looking for problem spots to open up so you can dump Owens? It looks like he's trying to trade everyone he doesn't like for a relief pitcher he likes and including Cargo as an afterthought. Let's include Allen Craig too.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 8, 2016 17:07:30 GMT -5
I could be wrong but it looks like you're looking for problem spots to open up so you can dump Owens? It looks like he's trying to trade everyone he doesn't like for a relief pitcher he likes and including Cargo as an afterthought. Let's include Allen Craig too. Just really down on Castillo and see Owens as a expendable. The Sox don't need MgGee but he wouldn't hurt either. I see the Rockies and Sox as a potential match just like there was a potential match with the Padres all off-season. The Nick Cafardo suggestion of Pablo for Shields wasn't a bad idea and the Sox ended up with Kimbrel. Wouldn't be surprised if the Sox and Rockies had rumors of trading with each other this summer.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2016 17:09:11 GMT -5
It looks like he's trying to trade everyone he doesn't like for a relief pitcher he likes and including Cargo as an afterthought. Let's include Allen Craig too. Just really down on Castillo and see Owens as a expendable. The Sox don't need MgGee but he wouldn't hurt either. I see the Rockies and Sox as a potential match just like there was a potential match with the Padres all off-season. The Nick Cafardo suggestion of Pablo for Shields wasn't a bad idea and the Sox ended up with Kimbrel. Wouldn't be surprised if the Sox and Rockies had rumors of trading with each other this off-season. I'd be surprised if they're talking to any teams about trades anymore. There are no holes to fill.
|
|
|