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Oakland A's have clinched tiebreaker with Red Sox (analysis)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 25, 2013 23:29:09 GMT -5
The Mariners are at home and should win 1 there at least. We should win 2/3 against an O's team anyway that is done for the year with Lester, Buchholz and Lackey pitching.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2013 0:27:42 GMT -5
I hope we get home field. The A's scare me to many ex sox players that where cast offs. Lowrie - Reddick - Moss Crisp - Colon. They are all having good season Reddick having off year. To many players there to prove Sox wrong.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 26, 2013 6:58:41 GMT -5
Magic number for best AL record is down to two. Any combination of two Red Sox wins/Oakland losses will give Boston home field advantage throughout the playoffs (AL has home field for the World Series) and allows Boston to avoid playing both Oakland and Detroit.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2013 16:41:25 GMT -5
As of today, the post-season projects to be almost completely fair, something that seemed unlikely a week ago.
The 10 best teams in baseball, schedule-adjusted, are in line to be the 10 playoff teams. That (N best = N playoff teams) hasn't happened in years, IIRC. The Rays have been hot and the Rangers have stumbled, fixing the situation where the Rays' SOS looked likely to cost them a wild card spot that they deserved.
The only looming likely injustice is the Braves getting home field advantage over the Cardinals, via the tiebreaker, when their schedule had been 3.8 games easier.
Current schedule-adjusted projected wins:
100.2 Bos 96.4 StL 96.0 Oak 95.7 Det 93.6 TB 93.1 Pit 92.5 Cin 92.4 Atl 92.3 LAD 91.0 Cle 89.8 Tex 87.4 NYY 87.3 Bal
With a balanced schedule, the Yankees and O's would still be alive to catch the Indians. Edit: of course, we still have the situation where the 5th and 6th best teams in baseball have to play a one-game series against the 10th and 7th, while the 8th and 9th teams avoid the sudden death by the luck of being in a weak division. But again, this time, unlike many other years, the teams are so closely bunched that it won't end up affecting the quality of the eight real playoff teams that much. There have been years where the second wild-card, had there been one, finished 10 or 15 games behind the first WC, which has often been one of the best teams in MLB. Imagine if the 2004 Sox had had to play a winner-take-all WC game against the A's, who finished 7 games behind them.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 28, 2013 7:51:37 GMT -5
Magic number for best AL record is down to two. Any combination of two Red Sox wins/Oakland losses will give Boston home field advantage throughout the playoffs (AL has home field for the World Series) and allows Boston to avoid playing both Oakland and Detroit. Magic number is one, with two games to go. Likely the Red Sox will need to win one, since we cannot count on OAK losing one. DET is locked into the #3 spot. The wild card is scrumlicious, with TB and CLE tied and TEX a game behind with two games to go. Today's games: LAA-TEX (12:05pm) CLE-MIN (1:05pm) TB-TOR (1:07pm) OAK-SEA (4:05pm) BOS-BAL (7:05pm) Tomorrow's games: TB-TOR (1:07pm) BOS-BAL (1:35pm) CLE-MIN (2:10pm) LAA-TEX (3:05pm) OAK-SEA (4:05pm)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2013 14:01:32 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 28, 2013 18:48:38 GMT -5
OAK loses, so BOS has home field throughout the playoffs.
CLE leads for the wild card, with TB and TEX tied with one game to go.
Tomorrow's games and scheduled pitching matchups: TB-TOR (1:07pm) (Moore vs. Redmond) CLE-MIN (2:10pm) (Jimenez vs. Diamond) LAA-TEX (3:05pm) (Vargas vs. Darvish)
Assuming they all win tomorrow, TB would face TEX in Arlington on Monday night. The winner would face CLE in Cleveland on Wednesday night, and the winner of that game would face BOS in game 1 in Boston on Friday night.
CLE has to decide whether to pitch Jimenez on Sunday or save him for Wednesday's game. If he pitches tomorrow, he would be lined up to face BOS on Friday (if they win Wednesday, of course).
For TB, Price is lined up to pitch Monday and, if they win the wild-card spot, he would presumably pitch game 2 against BOS on Saturday. I'm guessing Cobb would pitch Wednesday and Moore (who's pitching tomorrow) would be lined up to pitch game 1 (if they win Monday and Wednesday, of course).
For TEX, Perez is lined up to pitch Monday and, if they win the wild-card spot, he would presumably pitch game 2 against BOS on Saturday. I'm guessing Garza would pitch Wednesday and Darvish (who's pitching tomorrow) would be lined up to pitch game 1 (if they win Monday and Wednesday, of course).
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 28, 2013 22:17:06 GMT -5
OAK loses, so BOS has home field throughout the playoffs. That's IT? I know we are a tortured fanbase, but what about some more love being shown in this board about us clinching the best record in all of baseball in 2013?
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 28, 2013 22:37:09 GMT -5
Still only averaging 84 wins a season the last two seasons.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2013 22:46:05 GMT -5
OAK loses, so BOS has home field throughout the playoffs. CLE leads for the wild card, with TB and TEX tied with one game to go. Tomorrow's games and scheduled pitching matchups: TB-TOR (1:07pm) (Moore vs. Redmond) CLE-MIN (2:10pm) (Jimenez vs. Diamond) LAA-TEX (3:05pm) (Vargas vs. Darvish) Assuming they all win tomorrow, TB would face TEX in Arlington on Monday night. The winner would face CLE in Cleveland on Wednesday night, and the winner of that game would face BOS in game 1 in Boston on Friday night. CLE has to decide whether to pitch Jimenez on Sunday or save him for Wednesday's game. If he pitches tomorrow, he would be lined up to face BOS on Friday (if they win Wednesday, of course). For TB, Price is lined up to pitch Monday and, if they win the wild-card spot, he would presumably pitch game 2 against BOS on Saturday. I'm guessing Cobb would pitch Wednesday and Moore (who's pitching tomorrow) would be lined up to pitch game 1 (if they win Monday and Wednesday, of course). For TEX, Perez is lined up to pitch Monday and, if they win the wild-card spot, he would presumably pitch game 2 against BOS on Saturday. I'm guessing Garza would pitch Wednesday and Darvish (who's pitching tomorrow) would be lined up to pitch game 1 (if they win Monday and Wednesday, of course). Now I'm really praying that Cleveland emerges as the last standing Wild Card. I'd hate to see the Sox deal with Moore in Games 1 & 5 and Price in Games 2 & possible relief in Game 5. And potentially facing Darvish twice in five games wouldn't be a great proposition either. I would have thought that he'd pitch the Wild Card playoff, but apparently he goes tomorrow and is their best chance to either make the Wild Card playoff, or play in either a tiebreaker or that crazy 3 way tiebreaker. Cleveland, as hot as they are, has nobody that really worries me, especially if they use Ubaldo in the Wild Card Playoff and he can only pitch once. My only concern is that Cleveland is so hot - if they don't lose tomorrow - then I worry that their winning streak will end in the Wild Card playoff - sort of like when the Sox won 8 in a row to end the 1978 regularly scheduled season forcing a playoff game and then having that winning streak snapped in the winner-take-all playoff against NY.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2013 23:21:08 GMT -5
Ubaldo is pitching tomorrow. There's almost no way they can use him before the ALDS.
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2013 23:46:00 GMT -5
Cleveland is only "hot" because they've played the drags of the league for the past few weeks. Their 9 game win streak includes a four-game sweep of the Astros, taking two from the White Sox, and winning three against the Twins so far. The last time they played a winning team, they lost two of three to the Royals.
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Post by bsout2 on Sept 29, 2013 0:17:32 GMT -5
So the Red Sox could possibly face Moore and Price in games 1 and 2, that sucks.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 29, 2013 0:31:33 GMT -5
Cleveland: 17-2 vs. CWS, 74-68 vs. the rest of the league
The hope from a Sox perspective is make sure Price/Moore have to pitch before the ALDS if Tampa makes it and therefore can go only once and not until game 3-5
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 29, 2013 12:42:29 GMT -5
So the Red Sox could possibly face Moore and Price in games 1 and 2, that sucks. The idea of Matt Moore is much scarier than the pitcher himself. As of this comment he has 9 walks in his last 6 IP. I still like him long term (he's the classic high risk/high upside candidate), but if you're afraid to face this guy right now, well, it's the playoffs...what do you expect? He's certainly not an ace at this point.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 29, 2013 17:15:03 GMT -5
Any team that they play is going to be tough. Not worried about who they play or not.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 29, 2013 23:02:01 GMT -5
Agree, Norbit. If you want to win the WS, you have to beat all comers! Bring it on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2013 23:39:04 GMT -5
OK, the "Oakland has clinched the tiebreaker" thread is kind of useless now, so I'm locking this.
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