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Oakland A's have clinched tiebreaker with Red Sox (analysis)
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 17:26:01 GMT -5
EDIT on THUR 9-26
with the Boston win vs. Colorado, Boston is 2 games ahead of Oakland overall, and one game ahead in division record:
BOSTON 96-63 (43-30 Division)
OAKLND 94-65 (42-31 Division)
ALL REMAINING GAMES ARE DIVISION GAMES. Therefore, if OAK gains 2 games on BOSOX to earn a tie, they will also gain 2 games in the DIVISION record and finish ONE game ahead there. (Therefore, OAK has the tiebreaker.) (Division record is the 2nd tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head and Oak vs. Bos was 3-3.)
end of edit.
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In response to the Cafardo article in Monday's Globe, a review of the Oakland-Boston tiebreaker will show that, in fact, it is impossible for the Sox to win this tiebreaker.
Review facts:
(a) Sox (62 losses) are 1 1/2 up on Oakland (63 losses)
(b) Season series is 3-3
(c) second tiebreaker is Division record (Sox vs East and Oakland vs West), see (d)
(d) Intradivision: Sox are 43-30 with 3 to play and Oakland is 41-29 with 6 to play
Discussion:
How can Boston accumulate more losses in overall record to produce a tie, while Oakland accumulates more division losses to allow Boston to win that tiebreaker?
The worst scenario for Oakland is if they catch Boston in the standings due to Boston losses in Colorado. This is the only way Oakland can tie Boston, yet lose their intradivision advantage in the loss column. For example, if BOS loses 2 in COL while OAK loses one game ... they tie and the division records would be:
BOS 46-30 (98-64 overall)
OAK 46-30 (98-64 overall)
[or make it 2 losses to COL and 1 to BALT:
BOS 45-31 (97-65 overall)
OAK 45-31 (97-65 overall) .... same with 2 losses to BALT or 3]
In any event, the only scenario where BOS and OAK tie in the standings and BOS catches OAK in the DIV record is if BOS LOSES BOTH COLORADO GAMES!
Thus far, Boston is still alive for the tiebreaker based on the above.
The 3rd tiebreaker is INTRALEAGUE RECORD (142 A.L. GAMES). TWO losses to COL would create a situation where the SOX-OAK final tie would also include a tie for INTRALEAGUE record. (Cafardo is wrong on his 3rd tiebreaker, and the Globe has since corrected it.)
Now, the correct 4th tiebreaker ... GOES TO OAKLAND:
INTRALEAGUE RECORD, 2ND HALF OF 142 A.L. GAMES
There the Red Sox and Athletics are in almost the exact same position, but unfortunately for the Sox, that almost makes a big difference. 40-28 for the Red Sox over their last 68 intraleague games, 41-24 for the Athletics over their last 65 (with 6 to play). As of Monday morning.
With 2 losses to COL and 1 loss by OAK, the final records are (2nd half, AL records):
BOS 43-28
OAK 46-25, so Oakland has it clinched.
Again, if each team adds one more loss, the results are the same:
BOS 42-29
OAK 45-26
etc., for 2 or 3 more loses.
BOSTON CANNOT WIN THIS TIEBREAKER (or get even.) Oakland has clinched the 4th tiebreaker.
update WED morning: OAK 42-25, 4 to play
BOS 40-28, 3 to play
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 17:33:31 GMT -5
also: Oakland has tiebreaker over DET and both over BOS.
OAK has the 3-way tiebreaker with OAK-BOS-DET.
another way to think about the BEST DIVISION RECORD is:
the team with the better DIV record is the team with the worse non-division record (86 games)
The A's non-div will finish 52-34 and BOS is currently 52-32. So BOS must lose both COL games to tie ... and push the tiebreaker to tiebreaker #3 (which OAK has clinched).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 17:45:54 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2013 18:10:27 GMT -5
2nd worst stadium in the game if a tie is forced to be played at from a Red Sox perspective. Victorino's back won't hold up, the huge OF will give Nava/Gomes fits in left and the sun is terrible (to say the least) during day games if the play any if anyone you have watched many and noticed. One of the worst sun fields, plus largest foul territories for stadiums around.
Front office has to be aware of this and putting additional pressure to make sure this doesn't happen. I have been to that place (granted, 34 years ago) and it was a miserable place.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 18:18:08 GMT -5
johnsilver, I am not sure what you are saying, but there is no tiebreaker game. If the SOX and OAK finish in a tie, they look to the tiebreaker (which Oakland will have). Therefore, Oakland would be the #1 seed and host the wildcard team and the Sox would play Detroit in the ALDS.
The only tiebreaker games (on Monday the 30th) would be perhaps TEX and CLE if they tie for the final wildcard spot. Or there could be a STL @ PITT game on MONDAY, for example, if they tie for the division.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2013 18:29:25 GMT -5
Mostly a rant if Boston and Oakland meet up in the PO regardless. That stadium is just odd and dated compared to virtually every other one there is.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 19:01:24 GMT -5
here is the invaluable head-to-head grid for tiebreakers. espn.go.com/mlb/standings/gridExamples: TB over CLE (if they tie for #4 seed, the wildcard game is played in TB) ATL over LAD and both over STL PITT vs. CINN is 8-8 with 3 to play. Still undetermined where the site of the likely PITT-CINN wildcard game would be held if the 2 teams tie for #4 seed. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 19:32:43 GMT -5
SBNATION ... has a different take on the 3rd tiebreaker which I believe is the correct one. It is different from the one Cafardo uses and the one discussed above. The conclusion is the same ... A's have clinched 3rd tiebreaker (intraleague record in 2nd half) and the best Sox can do is tie the 2nd tiebreaker. www.athleticsnation.com/2013/9/21/4757246/magic-numbers-and-games-to-watch-09-22-2013OVERTHEMONSTER has the facts, but cannot come to a conclusion: "There the Red Sox and Athletics are in almost the exact same position, but unfortunately for the Sox, that almost makes a big difference. 40-28 for the Red Sox over their last 68 intraleague games, 39-26 for the Athletics over their last 65 means" www.overthemonster.com/2013/9/23/4761626/red-sox-athletics-playoff-tiebreaker-home-field-advantageWith 2 losses to COL and 1 loss by OAK, the final records are (2nd half, AL records): BOS 43-28 OAK 44-27, so Oakland has it clinched. Again, if each team adds one more loss, the results are the same: BOS 42-29 OAK 43-28 Oakland has clinched the 3rd tiebreaker. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 23, 2013 19:46:35 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2013 20:36:10 GMT -5
Great system there, where the second tie-breaker gives the home field advantage, as a general rule, to the team that played in the weaker division, and hence had the easier schedule, and hence was less good.
As of right now our schedule projects to be 2.8 wins tougher than Oakland's. If we tie with them and lose the tie-breaker, I'll be pissed. And so should we all.
The second tie-breaker should be simple SOS, which is to say, W/L of opponents. And there's an argument that that should be the first tie-breaker, in fact.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 23, 2013 20:46:26 GMT -5
Great system there, where the second tie-breaker gives the home field advantage, as a general rule, to the team that played in the weaker division, and hence had the easier schedule, and hence was less good. As of right now our schedule projects to be 2.8 wins tougher than Oakland's. If we tie with them and lose the tie-breaker, I'll be pissed. And so should we all. The second tie-breaker should be simple SOS, which is to say, W/L of opponents. And there's an argument that that should be the first tie-breaker, in fact. Selig's tombstone should read; "I can f up a wet dream." |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 23, 2013 22:47:01 GMT -5
I actually don't mind getting the #2 seed. I really don't want to face Tampa in that first round and play at the damn Trop.
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Post by commave on Sept 24, 2013 0:10:29 GMT -5
My understanding is that the 3rd tie-breaker is intra-league record in the 2nd half, and that 2nd half means the last 81 games of the season, rather than the unofficial 2nd half (since the AS break).
For the Red Sox, that's intra-league games on or after Jun 28. For the A's, that's intra-league games on or after Jun 29.
The Red Sox concluded the first half of the season with a 48-33 record. Since then, they have played 76 games, with a 47-29 record. That includes 3-0 vs SD, 2-1 vs AZ, 2-1 vs SF, 2-1 vs LAN. So their intra-league record in the 2nd half is 39-26.
The A's concluded the first half of their season with a 47-34 record. Since then, they have played 76 games, with a 46-29 record. That includes 1-1 vs STL, 2-1 vs CHN, 2-1 vs PIT, 0-2 vs CIN. So their intra-league record in the 2nd half is 41-24.
So the A's currently lead the 3rd tie-breaker by 2 games.
In the 3rd tie-breaker scenario, the Red Sox are being penalized for (a) having more inter-league games in the 2nd half, and (b) having a better record vs NL opponents.
ETA: with the A's win this evening, they have a 2.5 game advantage in the 3rd tie-breaker, so they still haven't clinched it. But they only need 2 more wins to do so. And of course with less than 2 wins it's unlikely to be a factor.
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Post by tizzle on Sept 24, 2013 1:58:55 GMT -5
Great system there, where the second tie-breaker gives the home field advantage, as a general rule, to the team that played in the weaker division, and hence had the easier schedule, and hence was less good. As of right now our schedule projects to be 2.8 wins tougher than Oakland's. If we tie with them and lose the tie-breaker, I'll be pissed. And so should we all. The second tie-breaker should be simple SOS, which is to say, W/L of opponents. And there's an argument that that should be the first tie-breaker, in fact. I can't even begin to fathom who thought a tie-breaker between teams from different divisions would be division record. Mind-numbing. |
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Sept 24, 2013 5:46:48 GMT -5
I actually don't mind getting the #2 seed. I really don't want to face Tampa in that first round and play at the damn Trop. You would really rather face a rested division winner in Detroit than Tampa who is coming off an all out chase for the wild card, will have a burnt out bullpen, and is pitching Price in the wild card game. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 24, 2013 8:08:19 GMT -5
I actually don't mind getting the #2 seed. I really don't want to face Tampa in that first round and play at the damn Trop. You would really rather face a rested division winner in Detroit than Tampa who is coming off an all out chase for the wild card, will have a burnt out bullpen, and is pitching Price in the wild card game. We've lost so many 1 run games in the last two months that I'm trying to just come to terms with the 2 seed rather than worry about what ifs. What I think is interesting is a few of the same people who said those games were "meaningless" now are worried about the #1 seed. So which is it? I could see us winning out here though. The Rockies aren't that good and the O's are done. I watched their game yesterday and they completely mailed it in against the Rays, and Machado got injured as well. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2013 12:29:31 GMT -5
I actually don't mind getting the #2 seed. I really don't want to face Tampa in that first round and play at the damn Trop. You would really rather face a rested division winner in Detroit than Tampa who is coming off an all out chase for the wild card, will have a burnt out bullpen, and is pitching Price in the wild card game. I don't agree with dcsoxfan1989, but I'll say that facing Matt Moore twice in 5 games with Price pitching Game 4 doesn't exactly make me feel great, either. I'd take my chances with Tampa over Detroit and hope Oakland knocks off Detroit. Actually, my real hope is that Cleveland knocks off Tampa, or that Texas somehow gets back into it. I'd like to see a scenario where there's a 3 way tie and a lot of top notch pitchers are used (spent) by time the ALDS rolls around on Friday. |
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Post by Guidas on Sept 24, 2013 14:36:33 GMT -5
You would really rather face a rested division winner in Detroit than Tampa who is coming off an all out chase for the wild card, will have a burnt out bullpen, and is pitching Price in the wild card game. I don't agree with dcsoxfan1989, but I'll say that facing Matt Moore twice in 5 games with Price pitching Game 4 doesn't exactly make me feel great, either. I'd take my chances with Tampa over Detroit and hope Oakland knocks off Detroit. Actually, my real hope is that Cleveland knocks off Tampa, or that Texas somehow gets back into it. I'd like to see a scenario where there's a 3 way tie and a lot of top notch pitchers are used (spent) by time the ALDS rolls around on Friday. Seconded. WIth Cleve winning the 1-game playoff. I'll settle for Cleve winning the playoff vs. Tampa, though. Really. Settle, I say. |
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 24, 2013 15:16:17 GMT -5
Those tie breaker rules are crazy. Thanks for the research DFA.
Don't like the rules, but the play in game was the big thing to avoid. I like beating the best teams. Made 2004 so much sweeter taking out NY. Tampa is tough, but so are Detroit and Oakland. Bring it on.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2013 15:58:47 GMT -5
My understanding is that the 3rd tie-breaker is intra-league record in the 2nd half, and that 2nd half means the last 81 games of the season, rather than the unofficial 2nd half (since the AS break). .... The Red Sox ... So their intra-league record in the 2nd half is 39-26. The A's ... So their intra-league record in the 2nd half is 41-24. . commave, your numbers are more accurate than what OverTheMonster has on their site. In any event, only one A's win means the Sox would have to lose out and they would finish 39-29 (intraleague, 2nd half). Cannot beat the A's. Some journalist gal named Susan in SF has it pretty close. She correctly concludes that the A's have it clinched. blog.sfgate.com/athletics/2013/09/24/do-as-hold-home-field-advantage-vs-boston/The first comment on the OverTheMonster site is by Tenspro2002 and he gets it right. www.overthemonster.com/2013/9/23/4761626/red-sox-athletics-playoff-tiebreaker-home-field-advantage |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2013 16:27:16 GMT -5
My understanding is that the 3rd tie-breaker is intra-league record in the 2nd half, and that 2nd half means the last 81 games of the season, rather than the unofficial 2nd half (since the AS break). For the Red Sox, that's intra-league games on or after Jun 28. For the A's, that's intra-league games on or after Jun 29. . THE A'S WRITERS HAVE A DIFFERENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE 3RD TIEBREAKER. DIFFERENT FROM THE ONE USED BY "COMMAVE". Better record in the last half of intraleague games: There are 142 intraleague games, meaning we look to the final 71 games. OAK is 42-24 with 5 AL games remaining. BOS is 40-28 with 3 AL games remaining. The third tiebreaker magic number is 2. Because a tie record necessarily requires at least 4 Oakland wins and Boston losses to American League teams, this tiebreaker always breaks to Oakland. www.athleticsnation.com/2013/9/23/4765064/magic-numbers-and-games-to-watch-09-24-2013THE RESULT IS THE SAME ... WITH BOTH DEFINITIONS. The PROJO has the concept, is close ... but a bit off www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130923-explaining-home-field-tiebreakers-danger-math-ahead.ece |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 24, 2013 16:57:17 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2013 0:34:44 GMT -5
Great system there, where the second tie-breaker gives the home field advantage, as a general rule, to the team that played in the weaker division, and hence had the easier schedule, and hence was less good. As of right now our schedule projects to be 2.8 wins tougher than Oakland's. If we tie with them and lose the tie-breaker, I'll be pissed. And so should we all. The second tie-breaker should be simple SOS, which is to say, W/L of opponents. And there's an argument that that should be the first tie-breaker, in fact. I can't even begin to fathom who thought a tie-breaker between teams from different divisions would be division record. Mind-numbing. Let's assume that the A's win the second tie-breaker because both teams win tomorrow, and then they take two of three from the Mariners, while we take just one from the O's. Sox win % vs. AL East: .579 A's win percentage vs. the same 4 teams: .538 A's win % vs. AL West: .592 Sox win % vs. same 4 teams: .654. Even if we get swept by the O's while the A's take one from the Mariners, we still have the edge in both comparisons, .566 to .538 and .654 to .579. Ditto, of course, for taking two out of three while the A's sweep. Just a fabulous system. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 25, 2013 15:22:36 GMT -5
www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/9/25/4770324/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules-2013-selig"MLB changes playoff tie-breaker rules, tells no one" "Major League Baseball changed the tie-breaker rules determining home-field advantage when the Houston Astros joined the American League this spring, but failed to announce it to the public, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle discovered Tuesday. The first two tie-breaker criteria -- 1) record in head-to-head games and 2) record in intra-division contests -- remain the same, but for reasons that remain unclear, the league decided that the Astros' move to the AL dictated that the third tie-breaker criterion be changed to overall record in intra-league games. In seasons past, the stipulation called for a comparison of the last half of intra-league games, not the full season. That has now been made the fourth tie-breaker." THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT OAKLAND HAS CLINCHED THE TIEBREAKER. THE 3RD TIEBREAKER IS A.L. RECORD FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR: (A.L. RECORD: SOX WILL FINISH TIE WITH OAKLAND OR ONE BACK.) THUS, IT GOES TO THE 4TH TIEBREAKER, REGARDLESS, IF THE 3rd is tied. OAKLAND HAS THE 4TH TIEBREAKER clinched. 4th tiebreaker: FINAL 71 (OUT OF 142 TOTAL) INTRALEAGUE GAMES (A.L.) OAK 42-25, 4 to play BOS 40-28, 3 to play RECORDS BEFORE WED ACTION. "Determining Home-Field Advantage in Two-Team Tiebreakers 1. Head-to-head winning percentage during the 2013 regular season. 2. Higher winning percentage in intradivision games. 3. Higher winning percentage in intraleague games. 4. Higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games. 5. Higher winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, ETC. ..." mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/playoff-tiebreaker-rules?ymd=20130904&content_id=59527184&vkey=news_mlbThe change was made today on MLB.com without any note that the article was modified.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 25, 2013 20:26:51 GMT -5
Why do you keep yelling?
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