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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 13, 2012 0:23:40 GMT -5
Obviously Felix Hernandez would be the perfect ace pitcher for the Red Sox (or just about any other team) to trade for to fill the whole at the front of their rotation.
But what would it take to get him? Should the Mariners be willing to trade him to gain the prospects and salary relief to create a winning team? (He's set to make 41.9 mil over the next two seasons)
In my opinion, the Mariners are not in a position the win over the next two seasons and trading Felix for a king's ransom would be better than holding onto him for draft picks and meager fan support. Any attempt to resign Felix after two years would likely fail or end up with a Mauer-like albatross contract.
Here is what I would offer up for Felix if I were in the Red Sox position. Let me know if you guys think it's too much, too little, or not enough to get the discussion open (If they don't extend him then this may be a bad trade):
1. Felix Doubront (There is enough young SP depth now fighting for the #5 spot that I would feel comfortable without him) 2. Jose Iglesias (Ideally this would lead to another trade - Ellsbury/Andrus) 3. Kyle Weiland Alex Wilson (Or some other young RP that would have some value to the Mariners but none for the Red Sox due to 40-man limits and depth) 4. Brentz/Bradley (Have to give up something else valuable here and the Red Sox OF depth is fairly strong, especially if you view Xander as a future OFer like I do)
I'm not really sure how highly the Mariners would value these guys but I imagine starting next season with Iglesias at SS, Doubront in the rotation and Weiland in the bullpen may help appease the fans who want short-term payoffs. And Bradley/Brentz would likely be up by the end of the year (Bradley is probably a better fit for that OF).
edited due to get Wilson and Weiland's names mixed up - thanks sibby
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 13, 2012 6:39:51 GMT -5
It's not inconceivable that Seattle tries to re-sign Hernandez. It is a young team that's rebuilding. And the owner (Nintendo) has lots of Yen.
A Mariners team built around King Felix is not out of the question.
BTW, Kyle Weiland now pitches for Houston.
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2012 9:07:39 GMT -5
There is zero chance the Red Sox trade for Felix Hernandez unless they either include major-league players (think Lester, Pedroia, or Ellsbury) or multiple blue-chip prospects (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, etc), and it might even take both. Hernandez is under team control for two years at a reasonable price, and he is a perennial Cy Young contender who is only 26 years old. We aren't going to acquire him for flotsam and jetsam, and if he's on the market, the competition will be stiff. I think any trade for Felix realistically starts with Bogaerts, and it'd probably require a few other B/B+ prospects as well (think Owens, Workman, Jacobs, etc).
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 13, 2012 13:11:22 GMT -5
There is zero chance the Red Sox trade for Felix Hernandez unless they either include major-league players (think Lester, Pedroia, or Ellsbury) or multiple blue-chip prospects (Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, etc), and it might even take both. Hernandez is under team control for two years at a reasonable price, and he is a perennial Cy Young contender who is only 26 years old. We aren't going to acquire him for flotsam and jetsam, and if he's on the market, the competition will be stiff. I think any trade for Felix realistically starts with Bogaerts, and it'd probably require a few other B/B+ prospects as well (think Owens, Workman, Jacobs, etc). Like to hear what you, jmei and others, think about moving Lester and Ellsbury for him. Both are from this area and both would be players Seattle would be interested in. Do you think it is too much or too little? I could see Ells being interested in signing long term for the M's. My preference is to extend Ells, but wondering what others think.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2012 13:15:37 GMT -5
Just to to tag along on what jmei already said, the package you described would probably be about enough to get a guy like Anibal Sanchez.
Doubront- Is useful as a number 5 starter. Beyond that or as a longman in bullpen he really does not offer much. Guys like this are cheap and readily available.
Iglesias- I am about as big of a defender for him as you'll find. I think his bat will just be decent enough for him to maintain an average of about 2.5 WAR per season ( I say average because defensive metrics can be inconsistent and with glove first players I feel like WAR for a single season is kind of meaningless). However he has big question marks, and there are many people who see him as a super backup SS. Regardless Iglesias peak ceiling is that of a guy who is a slightly above average shortstop.
Weiland- Thanks for the laugh. Anyways, he will likely never be more than a guy that a team stashes in AAA for emergency starts and hopes that they rarely need. Otherwise don't be surprised when he is the Astros third starter.
Brentz- Finally a guy who has a ceiling above fringe complimentary piece and slightly above average. If all things break right, and he learns to better control the plate, increase his walks and cut down on his k's; Brentz could be a 30 HR gut with an OBP of around .340 while playing average defense. But that is a very hopeful projection. And the guy has a ton of questions marks like how does a 25% K rate in AAA look like in the MLB?
Not only does this offer get refused, I doubt Seattle would answer the phone when you called back latter.
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Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2012 13:28:58 GMT -5
Lester has one more year of team control than Felix, but Ellsbury is a year away from free agency and the Mariners don't project to compete in 2013. I think the Mariners are almost certainly more interested in longer-term building blocks (a la Bogaerts, Barnes, maybe even guys like Owens and Swihart) and so while Lester may be of interest, Ellsbury probably won't be.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 13, 2012 15:54:34 GMT -5
I mainly picked those players because I think they would be useful for Seattle and they would be expendable to the Red Sox.
I don't see how Seattle would have much interest in an Ellsbury/Lester package, unless they decide to invest FAR more than they have over the last couple of years, in salary.
What if the Red Sox included a guy like Webster? Or do you guys think anyone short of Barnes/Bogaerts doesn't get the conversation rolling.
Seeing as he is only slightly cheaper than the going rate (He would make maybe $25mil/yr on the open market?) I don't think any deal involving Bogaerts is worth it.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 13, 2012 18:39:38 GMT -5
Lester & Ellsbury + prospects wouldn't get it done because of their contract situations. It Would have to start with Bucholtz & Middlebrooks + our highest prospects. I would think Bogaerts Brentz & Others. For sure our highest rated SP
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 13, 2012 19:40:33 GMT -5
Trading for Felix would be a disaster, full stop.
First, as others have noted, <i>you ain't getting him for no Jose Iglesias.</i> The prospects the Red Sox would have to give up would hurt. Bad.
Second, it's not like the Red Sox have some juggernaut team in place that just needs an ace to steamroll everyone else in baseball (especially if we're talking about trading away Lester and/or Ellsbury). Felix is a two-year rental, and I just don't see the Red Sox having a core of major league talent that justifies gutting their farm system for the sake of competing in those two years.
So, instead of trading away a Bogearts and/or Bradley and/or Webster, etc, why not just focus on graduating those guys. Then if they actually turn out to be good, in two years the Red Sox will have the young, cheap core to justify giving Felix Hernandez a massive contract in free agency.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 14, 2012 13:07:05 GMT -5
So, instead of trading away a Bogearts and/or Bradley and/or Webster, etc, why not just focus on graduating those guys. Then if they actually turn out to be good, in two years the Red Sox will have the young, cheap core to justify giving Felix Hernandez a massive contract in free agency. I agree that we have to get back to developing our talent to contribute to the major league roster, but we need two SP for next season, assuming Lackey is healthy and pitches better than he did before the surgery. The FA market is not great and no one wants another huge long term contract for player who performed well in the past, but is so-so now choking the payroll. That leaves the trade market and you have to trade value to get value.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 14, 2012 14:08:21 GMT -5
A healthy Lackey gives you one spot in the rotation. Lester and Buccholz are still young, healthy, but coming off disappointing years (as is most of the team, for that matter). So there's three SP positions taken. Doubront has pitched well enough at age 24 to lead us to believe he can improve next year.
So you have one open spot. Do you give a chance to Franklin Morales, who has great stuff and showed he can start; and Rubby, who has ML experience, and comes with a boatload of accolades?
Or do you spend valuable assets on a Greinke or Jackson or trade near-ready top prospects?
I'd give the kids a chance first.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 14, 2012 17:37:55 GMT -5
I do think a reasonable contract for Kyle Lohse might work. Not terribly interested in giving a 3 year, but a 2 year contract would sound good to me. He would be a fairly solid 3rd or 4th starter.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 18, 2012 17:11:52 GMT -5
I do think a reasonable contract for Kyle Lohse might work. Not terribly interested in giving a 3 year, but a 2 year contract would sound good to me. He would be a fairly solid 3rd or 4th starter. What is it about him, that you think would translate well to Fenway and the Sox?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 18, 2012 17:58:54 GMT -5
I do think a reasonable contract for Kyle Lohse might work. Not terribly interested in giving a 3 year, but a 2 year contract would sound good to me. He would be a fairly solid 3rd or 4th starter. What is it about him, that you think would translate well to Fenway and the Sox? I believe, Larry, that Lohse and a few others would help fill out our rotation. As you know, the rotation was a huge reason we never got going even a little. Lohse over the last 3 years has gotten better and better. He has evolved into a solid #3 type that throws strikes and keeps a team in a game. None of our starters this year can even say that. No he is not an ace. We all want a Pedro to walk through the door, but that is not happening. We need to shore up our rotation even if it is done incrementally. I feel the same way about Shaun Marcum and Brian McCarthy.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:20:14 GMT -5
Fantasy baseball trade scenario from me for the king
1. Bradley 2. Xander 3. Barnes 4. Iglesias
If they do that trade, they would need to have an extension locked in for four to six years.
I love all those prospects, but the Sox can afford to sign Ellsbury, so we can afford to lose Bradley.
Xander is not projected to stick at short and we already have a third baseman.
Barnes is our best pitching prospect, but with the king coming back... it is the price you pay.
Iglesias is simply a defensive replacement much like Pokey... and his time in the majors isn't helping at all. He looks over matched at the plate. We cornered the market on slick fielding short stops with no bats in the system already.
The reason we do that trade is that we traded for Pedro when he was the same age as Felix and signed him to a six year deal. It was the prefect length and we got him during the best years of his career.
It is a king's ransom for the king, but it is the type of player you clean out the system for. Thinking back, would you do the Beckett and Lowell trade again with Hanley? Well Felix is a hell of a lot better than Beckett.
The real prospect we would be losing in this deal is Hanley Ramirez 2.0 in Xander.
Barnes is solid, but he will never be as good as Felix. Bradley is a very solid prospect, but again he becomes expendable if we sign Ells. He is a rare player, but not as rare as Felix.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 19, 2012 16:27:47 GMT -5
Fantasy baseball trade scenario from me for the king 1. Bradley 2. Xander 3. Barnes 4. Iglesias If they do that trade, they would need to have an extension locked in for four to six years. I love all those prospects, but the Sox can afford to sign Ellsbury, so we can afford to lose Bradley. Xander is not projected to stick at short and we already have a third baseman. Barnes is our best pitching prospect, but with the king coming back... it is the price you pay. Iglesias is simply a defensive replacement much like Pokey... and his time in the majors isn't helping at all. He looks over matched at the plate. We cornered the market on slick fielding short stops with no bats in the system already. The reason we do that trade is that we traded for Pedro when he was the same age as Felix and signed him to a six year deal. It was the prefect length and we got him during the best years of his career. It is a king's ransom for the king, but it is the type of player you clean out the system for. Thinking back, would you do the Beckett and Lowell trade again with Hanley? The real prospect we would be losing in this deal is Hanley Ramirez 2.0 in Xander. I don't think it's enough to get him. You have to start with Buchholz & Middlebrooks
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:31:38 GMT -5
Fantasy baseball trade scenario from me for the king 1. Bradley 2. Xander 3. Barnes 4. Iglesias If they do that trade, they would need to have an extension locked in for four to six years. I love all those prospects, but the Sox can afford to sign Ellsbury, so we can afford to lose Bradley. Xander is not projected to stick at short and we already have a third baseman. Barnes is our best pitching prospect, but with the king coming back... it is the price you pay. Iglesias is simply a defensive replacement much like Pokey... and his time in the majors isn't helping at all. He looks over matched at the plate. We cornered the market on slick fielding short stops with no bats in the system already. The reason we do that trade is that we traded for Pedro when he was the same age as Felix and signed him to a six year deal. It was the prefect length and we got him during the best years of his career. It is a king's ransom for the king, but it is the type of player you clean out the system for. Thinking back, would you do the Beckett and Lowell trade again with Hanley? The real prospect we would be losing in this deal is Hanley Ramirez 2.0 in Xander. I don't think it's enough to get him. You have to start with Buchholz & Middlebrooks If we get to keep Xander and Barnes, then I would include Clay and Middlebrooks.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:33:03 GMT -5
So here is the second trade
1. Clay 2. Middlebrooks 3. Barnes 4. Iglesias
My first trade was
1. Bradley 2. Xander 3. Barnes 4. Iglesias
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 19, 2012 16:37:43 GMT -5
Unfortunately I think it would take Buchholz, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley & Barnes. And it still might not be enough because I'm sure the Red Sox wouldn't be the only one bidding.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:49:41 GMT -5
Unfortunately I think it would take Buchholz, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley & Barnes. And it still might not be enough because I'm sure the Red Sox wouldn't be the only one bidding. The Yanks traded for 22 year old all star Michael Pineda from the Mariners in exchange for top prospect Jesus Montero and right-hander Hector Noesi, while right-hander Jose Campos went to the Yankees. That was a steep price, but it doesn't sound like the M's were being unreasonable for a very young pitcher who already made the all star team. The yanks also got back Campos as well. So it might not take all five of those players you suggested, but I could see four of them. Out of all of those players, I would want to keep Xander most of all... so that would be the person that the M's would probably want most of all much like Montero.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:51:46 GMT -5
If the Yanks didn't trade them Montero already, I was going to suggest to include Salty or Lavarnway into the deal... maybe a multiple team deal so we can deal from a position of excess?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 13:49:34 GMT -5
king felix is a small market pitcher. you never know how he will perform in a big market city like boston. I would not trade for him and focus on rebuilding the farm system
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