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2013 Offseason non-Sox MLB Discussion
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 2, 2014 16:03:32 GMT -5
Here's something to help get you through those long winter days without baseball (do go outdoors once in a while if you can). It's one of a growing number of studies that have come about thanks to Pitch f/x. This one, from the Hardball Times, highlights changes to the strikezone, with detailed pitch count comparisons for each part of the zone (both for left- and right-handed batters) and case studies. Pitchers are figuring this out. Why it's happened is anybody's guess, and the author does take a few shots at it. But the result probably adds to what we've perceived as the loss of power in the majors. It's a lot harder to lift a ball that's closer to the ground. This is really great stuff. A couple of prospect related questions come to mind: First, is this same trend true in MiLB? And more importantly, are there certain characteristics in pitching prospects that are more likely to take advantage of this change than others? Does this change bode well for a guy like Webster that has hard breaking stuff and generates a lot of ground balls? Or will he be hurt by not being able to consistently locate his pitches to take advantage of this information.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 2, 2014 17:16:18 GMT -5
All good questions. I don't believe that there's Pitch f/x data for MiLB yet, is there? This may start to explain why Beane has made it a rule to pick up hitters who can lift those low pitches for line drives and fly balls. As for Webster, he had real problems locating his pitches on the edges, but he did do well with pitches down in the zone, or out of it. That's where a lot of his swings and misses come from. Check it out. This is from the game against Detroit on June 22. If he can get any kind of consistency, he'll kill with the sinker-changeup combination. That much is clear (from BrooksBaseball):
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 2, 2014 17:37:33 GMT -5
All good questions. I don't believe that there's Pitch f/x data for MiLB yet, is there? According to Ben Lindbergh in an article published this past May:I wonder when the data will be made available publicly - seems like it's limited to the organizations right now.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 3, 2014 16:52:41 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher.
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Post by patrmac04 on Feb 3, 2014 18:20:53 GMT -5
That was the very first thing that popped into my head as well. I really hope the Mets sign Drew and give us another pick and sign another depth guy in AAA. If for nothing else than to keep him off the Yanks cus he would really help the Yanks out and might get them to the playoffs. Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 3, 2014 18:35:08 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. Without looking, anyone remember the last Sox position player the Rangers attempted to convert to a pitcher?
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Post by Matt Huegel on Feb 3, 2014 18:48:24 GMT -5
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Post by ibsmith85 on Feb 4, 2014 8:39:22 GMT -5
Ron Mahay would've been my guess. But it wasn't the Rangers that converted him, so I would've lost on all accounts.
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Post by taftreign on Feb 4, 2014 14:36:08 GMT -5
Significant deal coming from the Braves as they have multiple young players to consider locking up. It appears the Braves have bought out multiple free agent years for Freeman in this deal removing one more potential free agent from the market.
On the other hand Heyward only signed for his remaining arbitration years which makes sense off a down injury plagued year vs Freeman off of a to this point career year.
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Post by jdb on Feb 4, 2014 17:46:16 GMT -5
Braves are in a bad spot. They make between $10-20 million a year on their tv deal and have 14 years left on it. Their payroll is pretty much maxed now and I think odds are high Justin Upton or J Heyward reach free agency after 2015. Heck they might even have to trade Kimbrell after this year.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 4, 2014 18:07:13 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 4, 2014 18:39:16 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 4, 2014 20:00:56 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm. Of course the bigger hurdle is actually becoming a useful pitcher, but moving him between the mound and the outfield does present some interesting strategic possibilities, especially if he ends up having a strong platoon split. Then again Ron Washington runs this team, so... nevermind.
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Post by ramireja on Feb 4, 2014 20:24:35 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. Without looking, anyone remember the last Sox position player the Rangers attempted to convert to a pitcher? David Murphy and his scoreless inning against us last year?
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 5, 2014 11:28:24 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm. I love this, lets trade for him.
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Post by jdb on Feb 5, 2014 11:38:51 GMT -5
They did but they're hurting. They max out at $20 million on their tv deal that runs for 14 more years. To put that in perspective Sienfield made $70 million on reruns of his show last year. I'm starting to think Heyward is our next RF. Great glove and will hit the market as a 26 year old. Here's Olney today. insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/4752.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2014 13:48:14 GMT -5
They did but they're hurting. They max out at $20 million on their tv deal that runs for 14 more years. To put that in perspective Sienfield made $70 million on reruns of his show last year. I'm starting to think Heyward is our next RF. Great glove and will hit the market as a 26 year old. Here's Olney today. insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/4752. Use of "hurting" in that context is somewhat of a stretch here. Being squeezed dry for profits is far more accurate. Being owned by the TV company that has no interest in baseball is not a situation that has a bright outlook. A $20M TV deal was not the product of poor negotiating.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 5, 2014 15:19:26 GMT -5
They did but they're hurting. They max out at $20 million on their tv deal that runs for 14 more years. To put that in perspective Sienfield made $70 million on reruns of his show last year. I'm starting to think Heyward is our next RF. Great glove and will hit the market as a 26 year old. Here's Olney today. insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/4752. Use of "hurting" in that context is somewhat of a stretch here. Being squeezed dry for profits is far more accurate. Being owned by the TV company that has no interest in baseball is not a situation that has a bright outlook. A $20M TV deal was not the product of poor negotiating. Yeah, let's be clear here. Not signing Heyward is a decision, not an inevitability.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 5, 2014 15:33:27 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 45 min. Former #RedSox outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin heads to the #Rangers on a minor league deal, as a pitcher. If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm. IIRC he was mentioned as having the best arm in the Sox system for an outfielder. FWIW.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2014 16:05:55 GMT -5
If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm. IIRC he was mentioned as having the best arm in the Sox system for an outfielder. FWIW. True that, he had a very accurate canon that was the best in a system that included Reddick, but the odds of a 25 year old learning motion repeatability, release point etc. are remote let alone learning off speed pitches. This is a major long shot. I would love to see him succeed but I'm not expecting to see him. Try teaching your dog a new trick.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 5, 2014 16:18:17 GMT -5
Use of "hurting" in that context is somewhat of a stretch here. Being squeezed dry for profits is far more accurate. Being owned by the TV company that has no interest in baseball is not a situation that has a bright outlook. A $20M TV deal was not the product of poor negotiating. Yeah, let's be clear here. Not signing Heyward is a decision, not an inevitability. The crux of the matter is the cosmic change in business model television is undergoing. That and the cold-hearted nature of those who typically implement such changes. Here's a quote from the Wikipedia entry about the owners, Liberty Media: Nothing like being part of an "asset swap" to endear you to ownership. You can bet any amount of money you want that the company is hedging to beat the band. They, like all other cable and satellite providers, are in the process of watching the Internet slowly eat their lunch, and everybody else's. Instead of highlighting the "asset" which we baseball fans believe the team is, they're not about to pour money into anything that doesn't give them some sort of outrageous return, something to help ease the pain. The Braves don't fall into that category, apparently. Why MLB prefers this sort of ownership to the likes of Mark Cuban, someone who actually enjoys the basketball team he's sponsored, and who might just bring the same energy to baseball, completely escapes me.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 5, 2014 16:32:23 GMT -5
Liberty negotiated an asset swap with News Corp. and Time Warner that would give it control of DirecTV and the Atlanta Braves baseball team. On February 12, 2007, the deal was completed with Time Warner wherein Liberty would receive the Atlanta Braves, a group of craft magazines and $1 billion in cash in exchange for 60 million shares of Time Warner stock (valued at $1.27 billion as of market close on February 12, 2007). The deal was approved by Major League Baseball and then completed on May 16, 2007. On February 20, 2008, the Federal Communications Commission approved the exchange of 16.3 percent of News Corp. for 38.4 percent of DirecTV, an $11 billion deal that also gave Liberty sports networks in Denver, Pittsburgh and Seattle plus $550 million in cash. Nothing like being part of an "asset swap" to endear you to ownership. You can bet any amount of money you want that the company is hedging to beat the band. They, like all other cable and satellite providers, are in the process of watching the Internet slowly eat their lunch, and everybody else's. Instead of highlighting the "asset" which we baseball fans believe the team is, they're not about to pour money into anything that doesn't give them some sort of outrageous return, something to help ease the pain. The Braves don't fall into that category, apparently. Why MLB prefers this sort of ownership to the likes of Mark Cuban, someone who actually enjoys the basketball team he's sponsored, and who might just bring the same energy to baseball, completely escapes me. [/quote] Think of the baseball owners like you would a bunch of hot sorority girls. Cuban may have some cool cars - but this group has more Yachts than Cuban has cars. And talking about his 'great personality' isn't going to get him anywhere.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2014 16:40:51 GMT -5
Yeah, let's be clear here. Not signing Heyward is a decision, not an inevitability. The crux of the matter is the cosmic change in business model television is undergoing. That and the cold-hearted nature of those who typically implement such changes. Here's a quote from the Wikipedia entry about the owners, Liberty Media: Nothing like being part of an "asset swap" to endear you to ownership. You can bet any amount of money you want that the company is hedging to beat the band. They, like all other cable and satellite providers, are in the process of watching the Internet slowly eat their lunch, and everybody else's. Instead of highlighting the "asset" which we baseball fans believe the team is, they're not about to pour money into anything that doesn't give them some sort of outrageous return, something to help ease the pain. The Braves don't fall into that category, apparently. Why MLB prefers this sort of ownership to the likes of Mark Cuban, someone who actually enjoys the basketball team he's sponsored, and who might just bring the same energy to baseball, completely escapes me. Where are MLB baseball profits from ? It's a you show me yours, I'll show you mine kind of thing. The eventual hope is that MLB will increase viewership of the owner's TV interest by having good teams that get watched more often, the Dodger's model, but that doesn't mean every TV ownership will view it that way.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 5, 2014 18:03:28 GMT -5
Like most new money, they come from creative enterprises, the "energy" I mention above. I'm talking about entrepreneurial energy.
For TV and baseball, think Ted Turner. Told that no one would be interested in national and later international broadcasts from Atlanta, he did it anyway and with great success. No problem getting people interested in the Braves back then.
If Liberty and the others wedded to traditional TV sourcing are smart, they'll think out of the box and come up with more ways to create a buzz for the teams they own. That should help get them the money to keep their good players. Otherwise, they act like the button-down company they shouldn't be. The disruption caused by digital networks is not going to go away. Since it isn't, use it to build up your team - already a very good one - into a "brand" that people want. Think about it: your MiLB franchises, twitter feeds, Pitch f/x, advanced metrics... there's a lot of stuff out there to feed fans and to keep them hungry. You don't need Bud Selig wet-nursing you to make new stuff happen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 5, 2014 19:44:56 GMT -5
That would assume that the board of directors from the various conglomerates viewed their smaller acquisitions as anything but either a money pump or a tax shelter. I'll bet that the new stadium was primarily publicly financed like the Marlin's stadium.
Corporations generally look to increase profits THIS quarter, not years down the road. Ted Turner had an interest in the Braves as well as profits similar to John Henry's interest in the Sox and Ted didn't have the internet to contend with. I doubt if the board of directors of Liberty have that same interest.
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