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Post by jmei on Feb 6, 2014 0:06:02 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 6, 2014 12:25:51 GMT -5
If he turns into a #3/4/5 bullpen guy - they could pitch him in the 7th then move him to LF for the 8th and 9th...never seen a team do this regularly but I also can't think of the last time a team had a pitcher who was this good of an OFer. (and let's face it - OF isn't like playing SS where you need the reps - shagging fly balls every once in a while would be fine). Granted the chance he turns into a solid pitcher at this point are pretty low despite the strong arm. I love this, lets trade for him. I thought I was the only one who thought that discussion was insane. I'll be amazed if he gets beyond single A.
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Post by raftsox on Feb 6, 2014 15:44:17 GMT -5
Think of the baseball owners like you would a bunch of hot sorority girls. Cuban may have some cool cars - but this group has more Yachts than Cuban has cars. And talking about his 'great personality' isn't going to get him anywhere. Mark Cuban is worth more than 2.5 BILLION dollars. Bud Selig is worth 400 MILLION dollars. John Henry (you know, the principal owner of the Red Sox) is worth 1.1 BILLION dollars. In conclusion: I have no idea what that odd sorority girl analogy is supposed to be saying.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 417
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Post by badfishnbc on Feb 7, 2014 14:23:03 GMT -5
This Yankee offseason is begging for a book in 20 years. From ESPN: "Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who signed the fifth-largest contract for a pitcher in major league history, has the potential to be a "No. 3 starter," New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Friday." Man. Oh. Man.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 7, 2014 15:36:19 GMT -5
This Yankee offseason is begging for a book in 20 years. From ESPN: "Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who signed the fifth-largest contract for a pitcher in major league history, has the potential to be a "No. 3 starter," New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Friday." Man. Oh. Man. It sounds worse than it is though. No. 3 pitchers don't usually hit free agency at 25.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 7, 2014 15:49:25 GMT -5
That's just Cashman tempting expactations some what.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 7, 2014 16:08:05 GMT -5
That's just Cashman tempting expactations some what. Tempering?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 7, 2014 16:21:59 GMT -5
That's just Cashman tempting expactations some what. Tempering? Yeah yeah my English has come a long way but still need to work on it.
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Post by jchang on Feb 7, 2014 16:30:41 GMT -5
I haven't meet one MFY fan before or after the Tanaka signing who is optimistic for the 2014 season.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 7, 2014 16:50:01 GMT -5
I haven't meet one MFY fan before or after the Tanaka signing who is optimistic for the 2014 season. Tony Massarotti.
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 7, 2014 17:27:55 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 8, 2014 21:24:08 GMT -5
With regards to projection systems, BP PECOTA Lackey 0.5 WARP BP PECOTA CC Sabathia 2.9 WARP If you are interested in solely sabermetrically derived results (mathematical purity), any of the usual quoted sources will give you approximately the same answers. If you are interested in numbers that will be much more likely to be what will happen in real baseball, find this at your local newsstand, it's sabermetric with scouting variables considered, like Lackey's surgery and CC's velocity drop. You will need a brown paper bag though, it's a fantsy baseball book. Or order it online here: www.baseballhq.com/content/ron-shan...forecaster-2014LOL, I'm going to put in for a commission. Also 2nd best (I would quess) is likely RotoWorld's publication.
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Post by jmei on Feb 8, 2014 21:41:01 GMT -5
With regards to projection systems, BP PECOTA Lackey 0.5 WARP BP PECOTA CC Sabathia 2.9 WARP If you are interested in solely sabermetrically derived results (mathematical purity), any of the usual quoted sources will give you approximately the same answers. Um, no. Here are Lackey's projections from the other major projection systems: Steamer: 3.2 fWAR (173 IP) Oliver: 2.3 fWAR (184 IP) ZiPS: 2.5 fWAR (166 IP)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 8, 2014 21:42:41 GMT -5
I haven't meet one MFY fan before or after the Tanaka signing who is optimistic for the 2014 season. Tony Massarotti. LOL, good one
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 8, 2014 21:48:50 GMT -5
With regards to projection systems, BP PECOTA Lackey 0.5 WARP BP PECOTA CC Sabathia 2.9 WARP If you are interested in solely sabermetrically derived results (mathematical purity), any of the usual quoted sources will give you approximately the same answers. Um, no. Here are Lackey's projections from the other major projection systems: Steamer: 3.2 fWAR (173 IP) Oliver: 2.3 fWAR (184 IP) ZiPS: 2.5 fWAR (166 IP) I'm more referring to the overall picture but should have been more specific. At the end of the year, the deviation totals across the the entire spectrum are going to be close. The PECOTAS are likely to be not significantly better or worse than the ZIPS, James, Olivers etc. I'll grant though that in recent years, the Steamers seem to have the upper hand in pitching. The general sentiment of my thread still remains the same. None of them are likely to come close to either Baseball HQ or RotoWorld.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 9, 2014 0:11:47 GMT -5
For perspective, I'm not at all down on Sabermetric analysis, quite the contrary, in theory it's without question the better way to go.
On the other hand, sabermetric analysis is not yet where it needs to be in order to beat the empirical analysts. Drawing an analogy, the World Economic Model (now, Rockefeller foundation) which is pretty much the gold standard of simulation models, took more than thirty years to go from a MIT grad student project to being able to state that they consistently topped the analysts projections. The amount of resources devoted during those thirty years and continuously since makes the resources devoted to sabermetrics look like a grain of sand on a beach.
As an undergraduate I had 3 masters level credits and 4 PHD level credits directly associated with that model. (mostly converting Fortran to C and C to assembly but adding under the direction of the original contributors). For all the variables possible, sabermetrics has a long road ahead but it's not unthinkable than they will eventually achieve projection superiority.
As a point of reference, although originally started in the early 60's, it wasn't until Alan Greenspan that the government actually started using the model's data.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2014 0:37:44 GMT -5
I guess I don't understand why you're hating on projection systems. Shandler and other "empirical analysts" basically follow the same "sabermetrically derived" principles you're deriding, with the additional benefit of being able to adjust for injuries and scouting information. There's certainly tons of value to having a smart baseball analyst (which Shandler certainly is) tweak the computer projections to account for that stuff, but the fact that multiple free projection systems that don't take anything into account other than what's in the spreadsheets can get you most of the way there is damned impressive and should be lauded and not criticized just because it's far from perfect.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 9, 2014 3:15:25 GMT -5
I guess I don't understand why you're hating on projection systems. Shandler and other "empirical analysts" basically follow the same "sabermetrically derived" principles you're deriding, with the additional benefit of being able to adjust for injuries and scouting information. There's certainly tons of value to having a smart baseball analyst (which Shandler certainly is) tweak the computer projections to account for that stuff, but the fact that multiple free projection systems that don't take anything into account other than what's in the spreadsheets can get you most of the way there is damned impressive and should be lauded and not criticized just because it's far from perfect. LOL. I think I broke SoxProspects, couldn't get back in. I'm not hating on projection systems. To put it in perspective it's like as if I view Shandler as Xander, empirical systems such as Rotoword like Owens and Bradley and the "projection systems" like our 4-11 prospects. I don't hate on them either. The occasion for my original post was that I noticed the Shandler book was available at the newsstands and my perspective is that I'm pretty much the only one here that even mentions their existence. In reality, in about a month I'm really not going to care about anybody's projection.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 9, 2014 6:28:12 GMT -5
LOL, PECOTA combined NY WARP for DH,1B,2B,SS & 3B is less than PECOTA combined Bos WARP for DH,1B
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 9, 2014 6:50:16 GMT -5
Good God Chris on your truck stats tweet, your missing the important consideration, what's his speed rating. Long off season, we need at least a 70.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 16:09:23 GMT -5
Emilio Bonifacio is now on waivers as a poor bat/super sub who can steal a lot of bases. Probably not someone the Sox are interested in with Sizemore and Herrera signed.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Feb 12, 2014 12:28:28 GMT -5
A.J. Burnett agrees to a 1yr/$16m contract with the Phillies. ESPN.com
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 12, 2014 14:49:11 GMT -5
Only 9 more months of Jeter slurping. I'm sick of it after 5 minutes.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 12, 2014 16:02:10 GMT -5
The difference in my feeling about a Mariano Rivera Farewell Tour and a Derek Jeter Farewell Tour is vast.
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 12, 2014 16:12:24 GMT -5
Only 9 more months of Jeter slurping. I'm sick of it after 5 minutes. I think that feeling is universal-- outside of NY. That said, if this forces Cashman to move on Drew, it would almost be worth it. Other than the fact he makes them marginally better, it solves our problem, and we get the draft pick we covet.
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