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2013 Offseason non-Sox MLB Discussion
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 17, 2013 17:56:48 GMT -5
Ranaudo even is too much for a 1y rental at a position Boston has covered after 2014 with cecchini and might even midway through the 2014 season if cecchini is impressive enough at Portland/Pawtucket. Ranaudo could be one of the guys the FO is looking to move while their stock is currently high, but to fill a position that needs filling and someone (as you said) less expensive than headley, with only 1y of control left coming off a down year the team probably wouldn't feel comfortable about immediately seeking a LT deal with.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 17, 2013 17:58:00 GMT -5
I don't like the idea of thinning the system for a guy like Headley who has some question marks, is expensive and only has 1 year of control. Especially, when it will most certainly take away from another part of the roster. See Jmei point on money spent and consider the limited funds with the strong desire to stay under luxury tax for this year. It's not about the tax money it's forfeiture of revenue monies. Going over tax by even a million costs the team huge money. And Yes, as a fan I care about that as this group is good about investing into the team. This is a year it makes a lot of sense to stay under.
Only way I'd can see liking it is if they could work a 3 way and basically turn Peavy (or Dempster if BC were a magician) into Headley and sign Hudson at a solid team contract.
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Post by jmei on Nov 17, 2013 23:46:26 GMT -5
!!!
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 18, 2013 0:09:25 GMT -5
jmei: I watched about the 1st 5 minutes of the video before figuring out it was Simmons of the Braves and not Julio Lugo.. Both were/are great defensive SS u know.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 18, 2013 8:21:23 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick 34s Ryan Rowland-Smith signs minor league deal with #dbacks. Includes invite to big league camp. @hyphen18
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 9:46:13 GMT -5
Yankees re-sign Brendan Ryan.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 18, 2013 11:34:32 GMT -5
@ken_Rosenthal Sources: Free-agent catcher Carlos Ruiz re-signing with #Phillies.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 11:44:42 GMT -5
Matt Gelb ?@magelb Source: Phillies have re-signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract.
That's a lot of money and one more year than I would have been comfortable with.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 18, 2013 11:47:37 GMT -5
Matt Gelb ?@magelb Source: Phillies have re-signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract. That's a lot of money and one more year than I would have been comfortable with. True, I think I would´ve been fine with 2/20 max.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 18, 2013 13:50:16 GMT -5
Matt Gelb ?@magelb Source: Phillies have re-signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract. That's a lot of money and one more year than I would have been comfortable with. Another example of how flippant Amaro can be with regards to money and age. Also partly explains why he is resigning with the Phillies vs any other team. This deal includes a 4th year team option for $4.5 mil with a $500,000 buyout. Jayson Stark @jaysonst #Phillies deal w Ruiz pays him $8.5M in each of next three seasons, with a $4.5-M option or $500,000 buyout. Also can block deals to 4 teams
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 18, 2013 14:27:27 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 12m RHP Brock Huntzinger, long a #RedSox prospect signs with the #Orioles.
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Post by nexus on Nov 18, 2013 14:59:29 GMT -5
Matt Gelb ?@magelb Source: Phillies have re-signed Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million contract. That's a lot of money and one more year than I would have been comfortable with. Another example of how flippant Amaro can be with regards to money and age. Also partly explains why he is resigning with the Phillies vs any other team. This deal includes a 4th year team option for $4.5 mil with a $500,000 buyout. Jayson Stark @jaysonst #Phillies deal w Ruiz pays him $8.5M in each of next three seasons, with a $4.5-M option or $500,000 buyout. Also can block deals to 4 teams It's only an overpay if you're convinced his 2013 offensive output was close to the ceiling of what you should expect over the life of the next contract. Otherwise, this could be a good value if he returns to something closer to a +3 win player (Steamer, for example, projects Ruiz (3.0) to perform better than Salty (2.9) by a hair in 2014). I don't think committing $26M is an unreasonable gamble for someone with Ruiz' strong hit tool and plus defense, despite his age. No worse than committing $26.5M to Dempster.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 15:31:42 GMT -5
The problem with that logic is that a 35-year-old catcher has pretty much no upside left but plenty of downside. Yes, if Ruiz stays healthy and productive, he might well outproduce his contract by a solid margin. But he could also be out of baseball by year three of that contract, and he's unlikely to produce more than an extra win or two. It's medium-risk, low-reward, which is the kind of contract a contending team who just needs a veteran to fill a hole should be giving out. It is decidedly not the kind of contract a if-everything-breaks-right-maybe-we-can-sniff-the-playoffs team like the Phillies should be giving out. They should have been targeting younger, cheaper options with upside like Saltalamacchia or Kurt Suzuki or Dioner Navarro.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 18, 2013 15:35:15 GMT -5
Huddy to the Giants, per the Twitterverse.
Edit: 2/$23, per Ken Rosenthal.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 18, 2013 15:42:40 GMT -5
Couple of ways to look at that. Yes. 26m is an over pay. Then, he's a definite defensive upgrade in every scenario over Salty and would help the pitching staff over probably the 1st 2 years as a starting catcher. His bat is equal in every way, if not superior as well and if one figures in the total cost of the package? less total outlay of money, only the last year (3) the team is more or less paying 8m for a backup catcher.
Is it an overpay? Most definitely, but not any more obvious than paying for an NL only junkballer like Dempster that was obvious from the beginning was going to get thrashed in the Al East and given 26m over 2y.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2013 15:53:54 GMT -5
The problem with that logic is that a 35-year-old catcher has pretty much no upside left but plenty of downside. Yes, if Ruiz stays healthy and productive, he might well outproduce his contract by a solid margin. But he could also be out of baseball by year three of that contract, and he's unlikely to produce more than an extra win or two. It's medium-risk, low-reward, which is the kind of contract a contending team who just needs a veteran to fill a hole should be giving out. It is decidedly not the kind of contract a if-everything-breaks-right-maybe-we-can-sniff-the-playoffs team like the Phillies should be giving out. They should have been targeting younger, cheaper options with upside like Saltalamacchia or Kurt Suzuki or Dioner Navarro. I mean, that's right, but it sort of ignores that the Phillies think they are a legit contender and are approaching the offseason accordingly. Ruiz is pretty good, and would be the catcher I'd want if I was running a contender, and the price is pretty reasonable. Despite his age, I'd say he's less likely to have a disaster-type season that hurts a team than Saltalamacchia, Suzuki, or Navarro. He's pretty likely to be average and a reasonable bet to be better than that, where Saltalamacchia may drop a sub-.290 OBP on whoever signs him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 18, 2013 15:58:38 GMT -5
Another example of how flippant Amaro can be with regards to money and age. Also partly explains why he is resigning with the Phillies vs any other team. This deal includes a 4th year team option for $4.5 mil with a $500,000 buyout. Jayson Stark @jaysonst #Phillies deal w Ruiz pays him $8.5M in each of next three seasons, with a $4.5-M option or $500,000 buyout. Also can block deals to 4 teams It's only an overpay if you're convinced his 2013 offensive output was close to the ceiling of what you should expect over the life of the next contract. Otherwise, this could be a good value if he returns to something closer to a +3 win player (Steamer, for example, projects Ruiz (3.0) to perform better than Salty (2.9) by a hair in 2014). I don't think committing $26M is an unreasonable gamble for someone with Ruiz' strong hit tool and plus defense, despite his age. No worse than committing $26.5M to Dempster. We really need to stop reducing every to "well, he projects for this much WAR and that translates to this many dollars". It ignores almost every relevant factor. How competitive is this team likely to be? What are the team's needs? How much better does this player make the team? What are the potential alternatives to this player? How much money did the team have to spend, and where else might they spend it? In other words, just because Dempster and Ruiz are producing equal value-per-dollar, doesn't mean that they're equally good signings. The specific utility of each player to their teams is what matters. In the case of the Phillies and Ruiz, the contract isn't terrible because they're overpaying for the player. It's terrible because the Phillies/Amaro still don't understand that it's time to blow up that roster.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 18, 2013 16:11:38 GMT -5
We really need to stop reducing every to "well, he projects for this much WAR and that translates to this many dollars". It ignores almost every relevant factor. How competitive is this team likely to be? What are the team's needs? How much better does this player make the team? What are the potential alternatives to this player? How much money did the team have to spend, and where else might they spend it? In other words, just because Dempster and Ruiz are producing equal value-per-dollar, doesn't mean that they're equally good signings. The specific utility of each player to their teams is what matters. In the case of the Phillies and Ruiz, the contract isn't terrible because they're overpaying for the player. It's terrible because the Phillies/Amaro still don't understand that it's time to blow up that roster. True. The trade Cliff Lee rumors should be in effect come mid July. This team is still behind Atlanta and Washington IMO within the division and I expect both Miami and the NY Mets will be better making a run at the wild card more difficult. In defense of Amaro though I suspect the Red Sox "pushed" him into adding a third year plus an option with a very aggressive 2 year offer of their own leaving him no alternative to retain "his" guy.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 16:21:17 GMT -5
The problem with that logic is that a 35-year-old catcher has pretty much no upside left but plenty of downside. Yes, if Ruiz stays healthy and productive, he might well outproduce his contract by a solid margin. But he could also be out of baseball by year three of that contract, and he's unlikely to produce more than an extra win or two. It's medium-risk, low-reward, which is the kind of contract a contending team who just needs a veteran to fill a hole should be giving out. It is decidedly not the kind of contract a if-everything-breaks-right-maybe-we-can-sniff-the-playoffs team like the Phillies should be giving out. They should have been targeting younger, cheaper options with upside like Saltalamacchia or Kurt Suzuki or Dioner Navarro. I mean, that's right, but it sort of ignores that the Phillies think they are a legit contender and are approaching the offseason accordingly. Ruiz is pretty good, and would be the catcher I'd want if I was running a contender, and the price is pretty reasonable. Despite his age, I'd say he's less likely to have a disaster-type season that hurts a team than Saltalamacchia, Suzuki, or Navarro. He's pretty likely to be average and a reasonable bet to be better than that, where Saltalamacchia may drop a sub-.290 OBP on whoever signs him. That's probably true in year 1, but years 2 and 3 are sketchy as hell. There are just very few examples of catchers aged 35 and older who have both played 100+ games and provided positive production. Here's a hastily compiled list (note that I understand the limitations of fWAR for evaluating catchers, but this is the best I can do quickly): 2013: 5 catchers aged 35+, only A.J. Pierzynski was worth more than 1 fWAR (1.6) 2012: 6 catchers aged 35+, Pierzynski (3.3) and David Ross (1.4 in 62 games) worth more than 1 fWAR 2011: 7 catchers aged 35+, Ramon Hernandez (2.0 in 91 games), Rod Barajas (1.5 in 98 games), Henry Blanco (1.1 in 37 games) provided 1+ fWAR 2010: 8 catchers aged 35+, with Jorge Posada (1.4) and Jason Kendall (1.2) providing 1+ fWAR 2009: 12 catchers aged 35+, with Posada (2.3), Ivan Ridriguez (1.3), Gregg Zaun (1.2 in 90 games), and Henry Blanco (1.1 in 67 games) providing 1+ fWAR 2008: 12 catchers aged 35+, with Rodgiruez (1.6) and Chris Coste (1.0 in 98 games) providing 1+ fWAR So out of 50 player-seasons, only two age 35+ catchers played provided 2+ fWAR. Only seven played 100+ games and put up 1+ fWAR. Only fourteen put up 1+ fWAR. Ruiz turns 35 in January and has put on the tools of ignorance 825 times over his career. The wear-and-tear of being a starting catcher is unlike that of any other position. You might be able to squeeze one or two good years out of him, but it's pretty foolhardy to think that Ruiz will be anything close to a starting-caliber catcher in 2016. Yeah, the fact that he's probably going to outperform his AAV in year 1 helps offset the expected decline in his later years, but that's a tradeoff that a team with a win-now mindset can make. I guess Amaro thinks he should have that mindset and is doubling down on veterans, but that's clearly a mistake on his part.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 18, 2013 16:29:53 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Nov 18, 2013 16:40:28 GMT -5
I propose that if a player's value has been determined to be less than or equal to 1 fWAR the term should be recast as f-ingWAR. Example:
2013: 5 catchers aged 35+, only A.J. Pierzynski was worth more than 1 f-ingWAR (1.6)
This appellation connotes the statistical realities in a much more accurate fashion.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2013 16:56:18 GMT -5
Is 825 (or 790, which I show him at) games caught a lot? He wasn't pushed so hard in his 20's, so it's not crazy to think he might age a little better than an average 35 year old. Beyond that, Ruiz's career arc has been non-traditional. His peak was from ages 31 to 33. He didn't have a great 2013, but he hit .268/.320/.368 and the numbers seem to back his good defensive reputation. To me, the money is so short that I can't really criticize it. $8.5 million annually for even a slightly above average player is worth it.
It's certainly true that catchers in their age 35+ seasons fall off, but I'm not sure the sample you've put together are especially predictive. Three 35+ catchers got 200+ plate appearances this season, and two of them (Jose Molina and Wil Nieves) couldn't hit when they were 28. Ruiz is a good bet to outperform, say, AJ Pierzynski from 35 to 37 becaus he was a much better player from 31 to 33. Right now there are a dearth of old catchers who were any good in the first place.
Another aspect: if the Phillies stink this season, Amaro probably gets canned, right? Ruiz at 2/$17.5 million won't be hard to move to a contender if Ruiz plays well. And if he stinks, then it's not by any means a payroll-crushing disaster. Heck, they can simply cut him in 2016 without being out too much. It's a low-risk deal, and I think the reward is enough that it makes some sense.
The Phillies are in baseball purgatory. The Hamels/Utley/Lee core is probably strong enough to keep them from being 100-loss bad, but the contracts are so big that they won't be able to get a good prospect return which precludes a real rebuild. They're not in a position to bottom out, and they probably aren't competitive. I that position, it probably does make sense to try to retool to win 88 an sneak into the playoffs, but I don't envy whoever eventually gets stuck cleaning up that organization.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 18, 2013 17:22:18 GMT -5
People forget to take in MiLB games when counting those numbers and they are still pertinent.. Ruiz caught 427 Minor league games before making it to the bigs finally.
Flip side and one you have missed the couple of times Jmei when posting that chart of catchers with age?? Carlton Fisk not only caught over 1000 games after the age of 30, but over *500* games after the age of 35.
There is your iron man example of a catcher, not Ivan Rodriquez.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 17:23:48 GMT -5
To me, the money is so short that I can't really criticize it. $8.5 million annually for even a slightly above average player is worth it. It's certainly true that catchers in their age 35+ seasons fall off, but I'm not sure the sample you've put together are especially predictive. Three 35+ catchers got 200+ plate appearances this season, and two of them (Jose Molina and Wil Nieves) couldn't hit when they were 28. Ruiz is a good bet to outperform, say, AJ Pierzynski from 35 to 37 becaus he was a much better player from 31 to 33. Right now there are a dearth of old catchers who were any good in the first place. Let's put it another way, then. For Ruiz to be worth that contract, he needs to put up a little more than 5 wins over the course of his age 35-37 years. In the DH era (1973-present), there have been three catchers who have been worth more than 5 fWAR in their age 35-37 years. Two of those guys are Hall of Famers. There are plenty of other excellent catchers who just fall off in those years-- guys like Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek, Mike Piazza, and Bob Boone all caught 300+ games during ages 35-37, yet all fell short of league-average. Ruiz might have peaked late, but catchers just don't stay productive into their mid- and late-30s. EDIT: I'm not saying it's a terrible deal, but I think it's at least a $3-5m overpay. I could have been talked into it for a team on the part of the win curve where a couple marginal wins are super valuable. But for the Phillies? Bad move.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 17:25:17 GMT -5
Flip side and one you have missed the couple of times Jmei when posting that chart of catchers with age?? Carlton Fisk not only caught over 1000 games after the age of 30, but over *500* games after the age of 35. When you need a guy to age like Carlton Fisk to justify his contract, it was probably a bad contract.
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