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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 4, 2013 13:32:58 GMT -5
The outfield is tricky, because the only premium guy who really fits is Ellsbury. Beltran and Choo are so limited defensively to a point where they could only really play left field for the Red Sox, and like I've said, I don't think that's a position to re-structure considering the other gaps. Signing a no-hit-LHP + super high K bat in Granderson going into his age-33 year doesn't make sense to me over just trying your luck with JBJ. I'm also of the opinion that Victorino needs to remain slotted in as a right fielder at this point. Moving him to center would not only relegate him to being an average-ish defender, but right field would be heavily exposed. With that in mind, any outfield acquisition needs to be capable of playing a quality center field, and preferably right handed. Chris Young is an interesting case, as his glove and speed are pretty good, as is his power. If we're going to platoon him with JBJ though, it's notable that his production plummeted big time this season when he was moved into a similar platoon role. He's a high-K guy who may need to get into a consistent groove to hit well. Still, he'd come at a low-enough cost, and his bat potential reminds me a bit of what Bill Hall did for us a few years back. I think your objections to moving Victorino to center are somewhat exaggerated. For one, what he loses in defensive value, he gains in positional adjustment (roughly 10 runs per 600 PAs). Moreover, his defensive strengths (range and arm) play up as well in CF as in RF, and there are fewer walls for him to run into. Finally, Victorino is probably not a true-talent +25 right fielder, and if we regress that somewhat, he doesn't lose much value even if he's only an averagish center fielder (and that value is regained if the Red Sox can find a good replacement in right field). Fair points on Beltran and Choo. Choo's defensive marks just crater between 2011 and 2012, but every defensive stats has that happening, so it's probably real (weirdly enough, Total Zone loved his defense in center in 2013, but none of the others did). I probably wouldn't be interested in either if the price on each is as high as it looks like it's going to be. I think you're underrating Granderson, though. Over the last three years, he's hit .243/.328/.512 for a 126 wRC+ versus lefties, compared to a .245/.343/.500 (126 wRC+) line versus righties. He strikes out a lot, but he also walks enough to get on base at an average clip and is a power bat who is a lock to give you 25+ home runs next year, even factoring in the move from Yankee Stadium to Fenway Park. He's good enough defensively to patrol right field in Fenway or play center in a pinch. MLBTR guesses that he'll get three years and $45m while Fangraphs Crowdsourcing thinks he'll get four years and $56m, which is not chump change, but he also might not come with the QO penalty attached. He's worth a look either way, and I'd love him on a three-year deal. I understand Victorino would be just as, if not more valuable in center field due to the position adjustment. My concerns lie primarily with the effects it would have on the outfield's run prevention as a whole, considering we're likely to put a worse than average defender in right in that scenario. With Gomes/Nava remaining in left, that's a pretty serious decline in defensive ability from 2013. Considering Fenway's right field, the thought of just about every free agent RF there (Choo, Beltran, Morse, Cruz) is scary. There's always Marlon Byrd, though! I guess I'm more confident than most in JBJ's ability to provide decent enough offensive production to forgo pursuing an outfielder. From a lineup power perspective, this of course hinges on retaining Napoli or making another 1B/3B splash. If Bradley comes up, plays a terrific center field, struggles with K's and average, but OBP's .330 in his first full-season while making next to no salary, that's the way to go in my opinion. When you consider the multiple years that Choo will demand, Cruz likely to accept the QO and play terrific RF defense, and the lack of other appealing options, I'm curious as to who you guys want in RF if Victorino were to move to center. Re. Granderson: in his 3-year slash line, he's seen his average/OBP/SLG/OPS all decline by large increments over each year (.916 to .811 to .723 OPS, for example). I stand corrected on the LHP issue, I thought he struggled mightily vs. LHPs for some reason, but maybe that was from back in his earlier days. As for his defense, I think he'd be very solid in right field, but I'm not sure signing him for 3-years as he enters his age 33 season is a good idea over the alternatives. In 2015 and 2016, you don't think Bradley will eclipse his production for far less cost? I think he will. Edit: Yanks offer Granderson the QO.
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2013 13:33:34 GMT -5
So do most people here worry about handing over the CF position to JBJ? If he were able to put up a 250/340/400 line with above average defense, would that be enough to warrant the job? It would clearly warrant the job and make him an above-average center fielder. The problem for me is that Ellsbury was one of the 15 best players in baseball last year, and if you're going to let Ellsbury walk, that production needs to be made up elsewhere.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 4, 2013 14:04:16 GMT -5
So do most people here worry about handing over the CF position to JBJ? If he were able to put up a 250/340/400 line with above average defense, would that be enough to warrant the job? It would clearly warrant the job and make him an above-average center fielder. The problem for me is that Ellsbury was one of the 15 best players in baseball last year, and if you're going to let Ellsbury walk, that production needs to be made up elsewhere. Maybe they're planning on going after McCann as you suggested? Sign Napoli and get someone like Young? That would seemingly explain why Salty got no QO. McCann will have several bidders though.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 4, 2013 14:17:00 GMT -5
You can't underestimate the value of McCann's knowledge of the unwritten rules of baseball.
Man, I would hate having to root for him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 4, 2013 14:28:01 GMT -5
You can't underestimate the value of McCann's knowledge of the unwritten rules of baseball. Man, I would hate having to root for him. Officer Brian McCann. How would he get along with guys like Big Papi who flips bats and admires his hrs.
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Post by slam761 on Nov 4, 2013 14:42:36 GMT -5
I don't think I really want Beltran on this team. He still has solid power, but his once elite plate discipline seems gone, and he's obviously not much of a speed threat anymore. Between those 2 things and his lack of defensive value anymore, I just don't see him fitting in here.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 4, 2013 14:47:10 GMT -5
So do most people here worry about handing over the CF position to JBJ? If he were able to put up a 250/340/400 line with above average defense, would that be enough to warrant the job? It would clearly warrant the job and make him an above-average center fielder. The problem for me is that Ellsbury was one of the 15 best players in baseball last year, and if you're going to let Ellsbury walk, that production needs to be made up elsewhere. Well the production needs to be made up elsewhere to the degree that we need to repeat as MLB's best offense in order to be successful. There is more room for this team to improve on the pitching front, although admittedly thats hard to see happening with the same rotation returning.
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2013 15:02:09 GMT -5
I think they need to upgrade the outfield for the following reasons: (1) I don't trust Bradley to hit well enough from day one (2) I don't trust Victorino enough to stay healthy all year (and I also think he's going to regress offensively) (3) There are no other internal candidates that I trust to fill-in at a league-average level for either of the above (not a believer in Brentz, don't think Nava, Gomes, Carp, or Hassan should be playing RF/CF) (4) The outfield is one of the few areas of the team where there are multiple clear upgrades on the free agent market, and the Red Sox have money to spend
Maybe I'm being ambitious-- it's tough to maintain/upgrade a World Series champion that was also the best team in baseball over the long regular season. But between players I see regressing negatively (Nava, Ortiz, Carp, Victorino) and free agent attrition, I think the Red Sox can't be satisfied with just re-signing Napoli and Saltalamacchia (both negative regression candidates as well, by the way) and calling it a day. Even with a bounce-back season from Pedroia and a full season of Bogaerts, I think the Red Sox still have work to do on the position player side.
Re: Granderson-- if his having a draft pick attached means he finds less free agent interest than expected, I hope the Red Sox jump in. I'd gladly sign him to a 3/$40m-ish deal and lose a pick. He's on the older side and his K rate increase over the last four years is a little worrisome, but he has the whole suite of peripheral skills (patience, power, defense, even a little baserunning) to make up for it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 4, 2013 15:39:54 GMT -5
So does anyone really think Napoli won't be the Red Sox first baseman next year with the word being they are going to give him a QO? I would be very very surprised if he didn't either take it or find his market value ruined by the QO; either way, he's back with the Red Sox. Remember this is a guy who didn't have the QO attached to him last year and the best deal he got was from the Sox at 3/39. Having that attached to him and being a year older isn't going to increase his market value. Well, Napoli: (a) Hit significantly better in 2013 than he did in 2012 (129 wRC+ to 115); (b) turned out to be a plus defensive first basemen; (c) showed he could stay healthy an entire year; and (d) is positioned to be probably the third-best hitter on the market, and clearly the best option at a weak pool of free agent first basemen. All true, but he also has a known degenerative hip condition that teams now know about, a draft pick attached to him and is a year older (now 32), which I think outweigh all of the above. The draft pick being the real anchor. Who's going to give up the draft pick, pool money and a huge multiyear deal to a 32 year old with a hip condition, a current foot injury and up and down track record? All it takes is one, but I still think it's a near certainty that Napoli is at first base next season for the Red Sox.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 4, 2013 15:41:00 GMT -5
So do most people here worry about handing over the CF position to JBJ? If he were able to put up a 250/340/400 line with above average defense, would that be enough to warrant the job? It would clearly warrant the job and make him an above-average center fielder. The problem for me is that Ellsbury was one of the 15 best players in baseball last year, and if you're going to let Ellsbury walk, that production needs to be made up elsewhere. He was the 6th best offensive CFer in baseball (and 33rd overall). Most of his "top 15" status is base running and defense, both of which are fluky, tend to fluctuate, and are difficult to measure. He was not likely a +6 win player in 2013, and is less likely to be a +6 win player in 2017, etc.
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Post by nexus on Nov 4, 2013 15:46:02 GMT -5
Re: Granderson-- if his having a draft pick attached means he finds less free agent interest than expected, I hope the Red Sox jump in. I'd gladly sign him to a 3/$40m-ish deal and lose a pick. He's on the older side and his K rate increase over the last four years is a little worrisome, but he has the whole suite of peripheral skills (patience, power, defense, even a little baserunning) to make up for it. There are arguments to be made for signing Granderson, but defense certainly is not one of them. Speed does not equal range and Granderson's inability to make good reads/routes has seriously hindered his effectiveness as a defender. Even with decent plate discipline, he's never been a high OBP guy. So you're basically left paying for whatever power and speed he has remaining. Some team will end up paying hoping he'll provide pop, but I don't think he's the well-rounded talent you're making him out to be.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 4, 2013 15:47:10 GMT -5
Do you guys think Beltran could reasonably demand 3 years for big money at age 36? If the Sox were able to get him for 2 years, I really wouldn't mind overpaying him a bit. He doesn't seem to be showing signs of regressing at the plate.
Plus, he's the type of guy who's made more than enough money playing baseball, but hasn't yet won a ring. He might forego the highest bidder if it meant a better chance at winning a ring.
He's not an ideal fit because of 1) his age, 2) the money he'd demand and 3) the defensive deficiencies you guys mentioned. But his bat would be perfect for this lineup.
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Post by curiousle on Nov 4, 2013 15:58:36 GMT -5
This is going to get intersting up the middle-what to do in Center and behind the plate: 1). Given the win this year, would the Red Sox take a flyer on Grady Sizemore and platoon him with JBJ and Vic managing his plate appearances and time in field and as a stop gap solution? He sounds like he would be ready for spring training.
2). I still think a Butler/Ross combo is not out of the question for next year-and may be preferable-ie). waiting on Vazquez for the back end of 2014 or early 2015, but I don't think the Red Sox are going to overpay at Catcher (The Jays are rumored to be interested in Hank Conger and want an upgrade-they want off Arencibia-or a big change in his approach)
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 4, 2013 16:04:23 GMT -5
I agree with jmei on Granderson. I have always liked him, and had rooted for the Sox to get him before he went to the Yankees. He got better with the Yankees because he made some adjustments and improved his hitting against LHPs. He had some serious injuries the past couple of years that hurt his performance, but nothing that should be chronic.
His personality fits right into the Sox. Right now he is a lot like Napoli was when the Sox signed him. He will hit a bunch of homeruns, strikeout a lot, and maybe not be so bad defensively as expected. He has a lot more speed than Napoli. He would be fun to watch and add to the personality of the team.
He might be better in LF if Bradley wins the CF job. But I have the same reservations as jmei about Bradley being ready.
I would like Beltran as a replacement for Ortiz, or in LF, but not as much as Granderson.
Incidentally, it may old news to many of you, but it wasn't to me, but I read on ESPN that money from the new national broadcast contracts starts flowing to the teams this next year, which will increase the amount of available cash for free agent signings.
Whether the teams use it to sign free agents is a matter of conjecture, but it almost is a sure bet that some will. This could have an inflationary effect on FA contracts.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 4, 2013 16:24:49 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 4, 2013 16:32:09 GMT -5
Now, I'm not sold on JBJ for next year at all, but I will say that having Xander Bogaerts waiting to upgrade the offense in the infield is making me much more sanguine about what happens in the outfield than I may otherwise be.
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2013 16:35:53 GMT -5
It would clearly warrant the job and make him an above-average center fielder. The problem for me is that Ellsbury was one of the 15 best players in baseball last year, and if you're going to let Ellsbury walk, that production needs to be made up elsewhere. He was the 6th best offensive CFer in baseball (and 33rd overall). Most of his "top 15" status is base running and defense, both of which are fluky, tend to fluctuate, and are difficult to measure. He was not likely a +6 win player in 2013, and is less likely to be a +6 win player in 2017, etc. Baserunning and defensive value stats as a whole might be controversial, but literally every measure of them (as well as the eye test and every scout you can find) will tell you that Ellsbury is, at the very least, a very good defensive center fielder and an elite baserunner. Even if you do totally ignore baserunnng and defense, he was roughly a 4 win player in 2013, so it's not exactly like he becomes a bad player without them. Plus, his baserunning and defense marks in 2013 weren't too far from his career norms (baserunning: 7.1 runs/600 career, 10.8 runs/600 in 2013; defense: 9 runs/600 career, 12.72 runs/600 in 2013), and even if you want to substitute in his career marks for his actual 2013 marks, he was still a roughly 5.5 win player. You can quibble with the exact figures and should at least slightly regress his performance to his career averages in projecting him for 2014 and beyond (FWIW, Steamer projects him at 5.9 fWAR in 2014), but it should be undisputed that replacing Jacoby Ellsbury with a .340/.400 version of Jackie Bradley Jr. makes the team worse in 2014. I'm not saying you have to re-sign Ellsbury at all costs, but we should properly understand the costs to not doing so (and try make that difference up elsewhere as much as possible).
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2013 16:46:54 GMT -5
There are arguments to be made for signing Granderson, but defense certainly is not one of them. Speed does not equal range and Granderson's inability to make good reads/routes has seriously hindered his effectiveness as a defender. Even with decent plate discipline, he's never been a high OBP guy. So you're basically left paying for whatever power and speed he has remaining. Some team will end up paying hoping he'll provide pop, but I don't think he's the well-rounded talent you're making him out to be. Over the years, he's been rated as an about average defender in center field (0.6 UZR/150, 0 TZ/1200, 3 DRS/1200), though admittedly with some negative fluctuation, particular in 2011-12. He has terrific marks in LF and RF by all systems, though in a tiny sample (245.1 innings). He should play at least average defense in right field, I think. I didn't mean to suggest that Granderson is some sort of Trout-ish five-tool guy. But he is well-rounded insofar as he doesn't seem to have any glaring flaws outside of a high strikeout rate. He should get on base at roughly league-average rates despite the strikeouts, play at least average defense in a corner outfield (and can play center in a pinch), and be average-to-better on the basepaths. He's not a player like Carlos Beltran or Nelson Cruz that needs to hit for average and power to make up for their below-average (sometimes well below-average) performance in those other facets of the game.
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Post by soxfan06 on Nov 4, 2013 17:11:14 GMT -5
I think Carlos Ruiz is a perfect fit for the Sox at catcher. Yeah, he is older, yeah he had a down year last year, but that should play into our hands and allow us to sign him for a reasonable deal. Plus he can play a good amount of games behind the plate. Last year was the first year he didn't play over 100 since his rookie year.
He has a career triple slash of .276/.369/.435 vs LHP and last year did even better than that .300/.374/.463 vs them.
I think he fits well in the Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, mid-level, bounce back FA signing category.
I'd much rather go this route than to pay a premium for Brian McCann.
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Post by jdb on Nov 4, 2013 17:20:35 GMT -5
On paper it looks like the easiest position to upgrade to help ease the loss of Ells is 3B which as a team we had a 0 WAR. I don't know if you go WMBs, Xander and keep Drew at SS or go outside for a stop gap for a year (Aramis Rameriz?). That upgrade could be as simple as WMBs getting back closer to 2012 levels. I do agree with most it would be hard to break in Xander, JBJ and, WMBs at the same time.
Also I saw earlier a mention of trading Carp and given he is a 1B or LF only guy his lack of flexibility might lead us to look into it. Nava can handle thiose spots and play RF as well.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 4, 2013 17:36:45 GMT -5
Beltran and Granderson both received QOs, so scratch them from consideration.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 4, 2013 17:39:17 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 2m Bailey, Wilson, Kalish and Miller all were reinstated from the 60-day DL. Berry, Snyder were outrighted off roster and are free agents.
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2013 17:54:32 GMT -5
Beltran and Granderson both received QOs, so scratch them from consideration. I don't think this front office will just flat-out refuse to give up a draft pick for even a mid-tier player. One of the strong motivations for not doing so last season was that that internal projections had them as an 85-win team, whereas presumably the 2014 team projects much better due to bounce-back seasons from Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey. They're also going to pick up between one and four extra draft picks this offseason, which might offset losing a pick to sign the right guy.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 4, 2013 18:28:38 GMT -5
Two-plus years of Granderson or Beltran are worth giving up a pick. The money and years will be the bigger consideration.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 4, 2013 18:42:34 GMT -5
My worry with Granderson is the same thing that worried me about Ortiz after his injury… Both were wrist injuries I think, and how much power will be zapped from him like with Ortiz the first yearish after the injury
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