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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 31, 2013 11:00:00 GMT -5
The parade's not done but the offseason is here. Lots to discuss, beginning with qualifying offers due on Monday, November 4th and the Lester/Thornton options due at the same time.
Feel free to discuss.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 31, 2013 11:01:14 GMT -5
The immediate calendar (taken from MLBTR and edited for clarity):
1. Players with at least six years of Major League service and no contract for 2014 were eligible to become free agents as of 9am ET this morning. That marks the opening of the Quiet Period.
2. The Quiet Period ends at 11:59pm ET on Monday, November 4th. During the Quiet Period, free agents may talk to any team but may not negotiate terms or contract with a new team during this period. A free agent may, however, negotiate terms and enter into a contract with his former team.
3. During the Quiet Period (until 5pm ET on Monday, November 4th), the former team may tender a QO, which is a guaranteed one-year, $14.1mm deal for 2014.
4. Option decisions must also be decided by the end of the Quiet Period.
5. Once the Quiet Period ends, free agents can negotiate terms or contract with any team.
6. A free agent has until 5pm ET on Monday, November 11th to accept a QO. Any player who accepts is considered signed for 2014. If a player declines a QO, his former team becomes eligible for compensation if the player signs a Major League contract with another Major League team before the 2014 draft.
7. The general manager meetings are November 11-13th.
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 31, 2013 11:04:36 GMT -5
would love to add Beltran to this lineup.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 11:16:21 GMT -5
would love to add Beltran to this lineup. Where would he play? The Nava/Gomes platoon in left approximates his production for a fraction of the price, and Victorino's defense in right makes him a much better player. Plus, he'd cost a draft pick and an expensive multi-year commitment.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 31, 2013 11:20:58 GMT -5
Right now I don't have a clear mind to think what the Red Sox should do...All I'll say is stick with the plan... I hope that winning doesn't derail what has worked for the organization.
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Post by nebraska4sox on Oct 31, 2013 11:26:02 GMT -5
There is no way the sox pick up Thornton's option. They traded for him and didn't even have enough confidence in him to put on the playoff Roster. They will most likely go into the season with Morales, Breslow and Britton as their lefties. Britton has great stuff, Breslow sans the World Series was lights out and he should be next year. Morales has nasty stuff when he can control it. I also really don't see them at least trying to get Drew and Napoli back.
Ells is the only one I don't think the Sox will be able to get back. I look for Jackie Bradley Jr. to start in center next year. Can't wait for this offseason and next year as the CHAMPS!
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Post by mainesox on Oct 31, 2013 11:31:46 GMT -5
I think I give all four of the eligible guys the qualifying offer (no way Ells accepts, and I don't think the other three do either, but I wouldn't mind having them back on one years deals anyway), and to me picking up the Lester option is a no-brainer, as is not picking up Thornton's. More interesting to me is what they do with SS/3B; I'd like to see them extend Drew and slide Xander over to 3B.
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Post by nebraska4sox on Oct 31, 2013 11:34:52 GMT -5
I think I give all four of the eligible guys the qualifying offer (no way Ells accepts, and I don't think the other three do either, but I wouldn't mind having them back on one years deals anyway), and to me picking up the Lester option is a no-brainer, as is not picking up Thornton's. More interesting to me is what they do with SS/3B; I'd like to see them extend Drew and slide Xander over to 3B. Do they try to trade Middlebrooks? I would imagine based on his comments last night that Napoli and Salty will be back maybe not with QO's but they will be back on restructured deal.
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Post by pedey on Oct 31, 2013 11:38:58 GMT -5
This post is about all the needs the sox need to address this offseason.
I would say bullpen and position players are the priority. I'd sign one really good setup man and maybe a middle reliever. Let bailey and Thornton go.
Position players depends on who the sox are comfortable letting go and whether or not they want to replace internally or not
Key free agents: Ellsbury, Salty, Drew, Napoli
Those are 4 positions that arguable could be replaced internally, (Bradley, Lavarnway, Bogaerts, Carp) but it would be too much to enter into a season with that many question marks regarding position players.
Any thoughts on offseason needs?
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 31, 2013 11:41:03 GMT -5
There is no way the sox pick up Thornton's option. They traded for him and didn't even have enough confidence in him to put on the playoff Roster. They will most likely go into the season with Morales, Breslow and Britton as their lefties. Britton has great stuff, Breslow sans the World Series was lights out and he should be next year. Morales has nasty stuff when he can control it. I also really don't see them at least trying to get Drew and Napoli back. Ells is the only one I don't think the Sox will be able to get back. I look for Jackie Bradley Jr. to start in center next year. Can't wait for this offseason and next year as the CHAMPS! Don't forget Andrew Miller.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 31, 2013 11:42:06 GMT -5
I think I give all four of the eligible guys the qualifying offer (no way Ells accepts, and I don't think the other three do either, but I wouldn't mind having them back on one years deals anyway), and to me picking up the Lester option is a no-brainer, as is not picking up Thornton's. More interesting to me is what they do with SS/3B; I'd like to see them extend Drew and slide Xander over to 3B.+1 Even though Drew didn't hit a lick in the postseason.
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Post by nebraska4sox on Oct 31, 2013 11:43:29 GMT -5
good call I forgot about Andrew Miller. That mean Morales will probably be expendable or Britton starts year in Triple A
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Post by mainesox on Oct 31, 2013 12:00:49 GMT -5
I think I give all four of the eligible guys the qualifying offer (no way Ells accepts, and I don't think the other three do either, but I wouldn't mind having them back on one years deals anyway), and to me picking up the Lester option is a no-brainer, as is not picking up Thornton's. More interesting to me is what they do with SS/3B; I'd like to see them extend Drew and slide Xander over to 3B. Do they try to trade Middlebrooks? I would imagine based on his comments last night that Napoli and Salty will be back maybe not with QO's but they will be back on restructured deal. Yeah, I would try to move Middlebrooks in the off-season; I think he can stick with someone, but I don't think he's got a place on a team like Boston for very long. +1 Even though Drew didn't hit a lick in the postseason. I think you kind of have to take postseason numbers with a massive grain of salt, even before you consider the small sample size issues. He was a great player over the regular season, and I think that's what matters.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 31, 2013 12:02:38 GMT -5
Let's see if they can unload Dempster.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 31, 2013 12:26:27 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 14s Scott Boras told me he's already received 11 phone calls on Jacoby Ellsbury from GM's around baseball/
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 31, 2013 12:30:57 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 3m Also from Boras, Stephen Drew went to the eye doctor before Game 6, got some new contact lenses and homered and hit the ball hard 3 times.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Oct 31, 2013 12:30:59 GMT -5
All get qualifying offers, unless there was a wink wink deal when we signed Drew.
Sounds like Napoli will want to come back. I don't expect any others to stay. I personally haven't given up hope on Ells, but it is unlikely.
Lester is a no brainier, with a long term extension a strong possibility.
I would also keep Thornton, as he does have value.
It seems like one or two impact promotions happen yearly, so jbj, and Webster seem likely to have a significant impact, but who knows.
Zander is a full timer, but he did look good at third.
There will be a number of value propositions on the team that other teams may target.
There is the obvious but unlikely situation with Lackey and his contract with the free year.
Dempster and Peavy again may be attractive to others.
Thorton, and Breslow as well as anyone in the pen not from Japan might have some champion shine that catches someone's eye.
Nava and his controlled dollars are as strong a value as there is and certainly would attract any budget constrained team.
Catcher is intriguing. I don't expect salty back but they need 100 games out of someone to go with Ross, who's concussion history is an obvious concern.
Starting pitching is a perennial concern.
Lester, Lackey, Doubront at the top of the rotation, with Some combination of Peavy, Dempster, Workman, Webster at the bottom.
Buck looks awful. Gaunt and weak. I would not be surprised if whatever is his issue leads to missing significant parts of 2014.
This was my favorite sox team, but I can envision again a significant turnover of over 25% of the roster.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 31, 2013 12:36:26 GMT -5
Trade em' all, Blow it up. It's time to re-build !
In all seriousness. I'd tear up Lester's option and sign him to a 4 year deal. Offer the big 4 QO's . Offer Nap, Drew and Salty similarly priced 2 year deals. Trade a starter. Most likely Dempster.
I wouldn't go crazy with the bullpen, you have a hell of a lot of live arms that could help immediately.
If Drew walks: Acquire a 1 year stop-gap for 3rdbase (Aramis Ramirez type) and start X at SS. Worst case start WMB at third to begin the year.
If Nap walks: scour the FA market and or trade market. Worst case platoon WMB and Carp
If Salty walks: Use in house options Vasquez, Lavarnway and Ross. Or sign a good defensive LHH catcher to platoon with Ross.
When Ells walks, give JBJ every opportunity to succeed.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 31, 2013 12:38:43 GMT -5
This post is about all the needs the sox need to address this offseason. I would say bullpen and position players are the priority. I'd sign one really good setup man and maybe a middle reliever. Let bailey and Thornton go. Position players depends on who the sox are comfortable letting go and whether or not they want to replace internally or not Key free agents: Ellsbury, Salty, Drew, Napoli Those are 4 positions that arguable could be replaced internally, (Bradley, Lavarnway, Bogaerts, Carp) but it would be too much to enter into a season with that many question marks regarding position players. Any thoughts on offseason needs? Bullpen, for sure. Without Hanrahan/Bailey/Thornton, the bullpen looks like this: Uehara (38) Tazawa (27) Miller (28) Morales (28) Breslow (33) Villarreal/Workman/Wilson/Britton are also in the mix. An established RH reliever seems to be a priority. The other needs won't be known until the 11th (after the QOs are accepted/rejected).
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Post by curiousle on Oct 31, 2013 12:51:52 GMT -5
1). All get QO's. (Lester gets his option, Thornton doesn't) 2). I think Napoli is the only F/A coming back. 3). We need a catcher as a bridge solution and we need an impact outfielder.
I think Ben might be busy in the trade market (I don't see anyone picking up Dempster, but Peavy has value and I would look to package him with WMB or Brentz or others to improve depth and impact in the outfield)
I would NOT give up young pitching (St. Louis) that looks promising and that you could need to fill 2015 gaps.
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Post by sammo420 on Oct 31, 2013 13:14:06 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 14s Scott Boras told me he's already received 11 phone calls on Jacoby Ellsbury from GM's around baseball/ Only 11, I thought for sure it would've been in the 50's somewhere?
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 31, 2013 13:14:13 GMT -5
There always is the temptation for a WS champion team to try to keep the team together for the next season. However, it almost never works. Every season is unique, and it is extremely difficult for the same team to repeat, especially a team that relies on a number of aging veterans.
That being said, I'd like to see the Sox keep their free agents, but I don't expect Ellsbury to return. Some other team probably will offer him quite a bit more than the Sox are willing to pay. I didn't think he helped himself during the post-season, but he had a good year, and many teams could benefit from him.
I think Salty will have some good offers, but the Sox should be able to match them, and they should. McCann is not going to be less expensive, and, at this point, the two are fairly comparable. Law has said Salty is better.
Drew also will get some good offers, but I think the Sox could match them, and should. I was down on him for about the season, maybe unfairly, but his performance the second half was superb. I think Bogaerts could be an All-Star at 3B, and the Sox should consider keeping him there. I am with several others here in believing Middlebrooks probably should be moved, and I think he has value. He could be a key part of a multi-player deal for either a power-hitter or a first line pitcher, both of which the Sox could use.
I am not optimistic about Dempster, Peavy or Buchholtz for next year, although Peavy probably will be OK. I think the Sox should move all three, if they can, in the right kind of deals.
One of the things that was obvious from the post-season was how much the Sox need another premium power-hitter. Ortiz is not going to last forever, and someone really good to bat behind him would enhance his performance. That player would have to be either a 1B or an OF.
The Sox have only two current SPs who are likely to have superior performance next year, Lester and Lackey, and, at his age, who knows when Lackey will deteriorate? The odds are good, however, that he will have at least one more good year. I think Doubront will be very good. They need to add another top-notch starter by trade, and/or try to move one or two of the young pitchers at AAA (including possibly Workman) into the rotation.
I hope that Miller comes back strong and combines with Breslow and Britton as the LHPs in the bullpen. I don't think Morales is ever going to be good. He should have learned better control and command by now. The Japanese contingent is solid, but I wonder if Tazawa might be converted to being a starter? Workman has proven himself, and if not made into a starter, should be a workhorse in the pen next year. I think the Sox should add at least one premium arm from outside.
If Napoli comes back at 1B, then a new LF, a really good one, should be added through a trade.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 13:24:33 GMT -5
One of the things that was obvious from the post-season was how much the Sox need another premium power-hitter. Ortiz is not going to last forever, and someone really good to bat behind him would enhance his performance. That player would have to be either a 1B or an OF. (1) I thought this team's success would dampen the "you need superstar hitters to win!" narrative. I guess not. (2) His name is Xander Bogaerts. I think Salty will have some good offers, but the Sox should be able to match them, and they should. McCann is not going to be less expensive, and, at this point, the two are fairly comparable. Law has said Salty is better. I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Both in 2013 and over their carrers, Brian McCann walks more, strikes out less, hits for more power, and is as good of a defender as Saltalamacchia. The one major thing that Saltalamacchia has done better, both in 2013 and over their careers, is sustain a higher BABIP. That's a real skill difference (Saltalamacchia is also the better baserunner), but it's not enough to balance out all the other stuff I mentioned above. McCann will obviously be much more expensive, but he is meaningfully better than Saltalamacchia.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 31, 2013 13:34:05 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 3m Also from Boras, Stephen Drew went to the eye doctor before Game 6, got some new contact lenses and homered and hit the ball hard 3 times. That would not be out of place as satire. I am, once again, looking for two things: 1. Acquiring elite talent where it makes sense 2. Using financial wherewithal to fill roster gaps on short contracts Obviously #2 worked very well despite whiffing on #1. Stephen Drew fell into our laps, my boy Victorino excelled, Napoli didn't break, Gomes & Ross fortified the bench. I thought the Sox had some opportunities last season with Greinke, Sanchez, et al, but they didn't pull the trigger. They also didn't acquire a young talent who changed teams, such as Wil Myers. It should go without saying, but can't, that the stars have to align for some of those trades to work out at a reasonable cost in salary or talent, with the right fit with the right partner. This offseason there will be more opportunities to acquire elite talent, beginning with Masahiro Tanaka. Wishing doesn't make it happen, but excellent talent evaluation and creativity from the front office might. And hopefully, we can put last offseason's canard to rest that the Sox wouldn't use all or most of the budget room opened up by the Crawford deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 31, 2013 13:34:30 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia has also done a better job staying on the field. McCann is certainly the better player when healthy, but that's a concern. It will depress his market.
It would be sort of funny if the Sox do sign McCann, making Ross his backup in a second organization.
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