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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by nebraska4sox on Oct 31, 2013 13:35:35 GMT -5
I think Salty will have some good offers, but the Sox should be able to match them, and they should. McCann is not going to be less expensive, and, at this point, the two are fairly comparable. Law has said Salty is better. I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Both in 2013 and over their carrers, Brian McCann walks more, strikes out less, hits for more power, and is as good of a defender as Saltalamacchia. The one major thing that Saltalamacchia has done better, both in 2013 and over their careers, is sustain a higher BABIP. That's a real skill difference (Saltalamacchia is also the better baserunner), but it's not enough to balance out all the other stuff I mentioned above. McCann will obviously be much more expensive, but he is meaningfully better than Saltalamacchia. Exactly, I think McCann would be our best scenario. If we can sign McCann you should give our catcher signing an A.
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Post by sbones13 on Oct 31, 2013 13:51:48 GMT -5
McCann was better in 2008. Overall, he's been better. Most people seem to think Mccann is a disaster as a defensive catcher. Some think he's really a 1B or DH already. I know Law has said this. The last 2 years, for whatever the reasons, Salty is the same player or better. He's also a year younger. He'll also sign for FAR less than you'd get McCann for. Fangraphs had Salty's WAR at 3.6 to McCann's 2.7.
Everyone here sees Salty every day and doesn't see McCann (Me included), so I think this is a case of having no idea how McCann really is behind the plate. I'll go with the scouts on this one.
All that said, the only thing I REALLY want out of this off-season is that Bogaerts doesn't get shifted to 3B before we find out if he can be a superstar at SS...
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 31, 2013 14:11:14 GMT -5
Pedro Beato claimed by Cinci.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 31, 2013 14:12:45 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 8m red sox plan to make $14.1-million qualifying offers to napoli and drew. cbsprt.co/1aM02RL
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 14:15:07 GMT -5
1. Acquiring elite talent where it makes sense. Attempting to focus on "elite talent" seems to me to be a high-risk, medium-reward strategy. Considering the cost for elite players on both the free agent and trade markets, if you target the wrong player (or he gets hurt), it's enough to severely hamstring a franchise. Admittedly, for a team with the payroll and depth of the Red Sox, it's a lot easier to come back from a big mistake, but having $15m+ of salary tied up in an under-performing player or two will still have a strong negative impact (especially since managers are loathe to actually bench underperforming veterans). Meanwhile, when you're paying a player that much, there's not a lot of room to pick up surplus value. Greinke pitched well when healthy, but he still only accrued 2.9 fWAR ("worth" $17.4m) while being paid a $24.5m AAV. Sanchez grossly outperformed his contract, but it's rare that 29-year-old pitchers improve their FIP by a whole run after signing their first FA contract. Looking at the list of biggest contracts and AAVs, I really can't think of more than a handful of deals that the team would have done again, and even fewer that provided genuine surplus value. There's just much more upside with low- and mid-tier signings. I understand the point that player value is probably more exponential then linear, and that the more wins you can cram into one position, the better, but until you've run out of ways to upgrade the middle and back of the roster, I just don't see much of a need to focus on "elite talent" unless you're really, really sure the cost is right. I do agree that the international free agent market provides greater opportunities for surplus value, mainly due to the risk premium that devalues IFA contracts. In that vein, Tanaka (and Abreu) are options that should be explored. But looking at the list of free agents, I don't see any other elite talents that are realistic options. I'm not sure there are any obvious names on the trade market (Scherzer? Price?), but that's always a crapshoot. Considering the multitude of holes on this team (C, 1B, bullpen, potentially CF or 3B/SS), I would much rather the team re-stock with mid-tier talent while waiting for the farm to mature than seriously pursue Ellsbury in free agency or try to trade for Stanton.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 31, 2013 14:24:24 GMT -5
I love that the board is in the full swing of offseason discussion already. I suppose if the front office can't take any time off, why should we?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 31, 2013 14:25:58 GMT -5
Pedro Beato claimed by Cinci. I was hoping he'd clear. I was pretty impressed when I saw him. His fastball is straight, but that splitter that he added gave him a good wrinkle to keep hitters off-balance. Not a huge loss or anything, but I thought he had a chance to contribute as a low/moderate-leverage bullpen arm. Oh well.
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Post by h11233 on Oct 31, 2013 14:38:05 GMT -5
I have to believe the front office had a plan for the direction they wanted to go with this team whether they won the world series or not. They traded iglesias for Peavy so I think that shows they're comfortable with the current options at 3b/ss whether Drew accepts the qo or not. Maybe they bring somebody in for depth, but I don't see a major move happening. I also can't imagine them flipping Peavy unless they get some crazy offer. He's relatively low cost and is a great option until the young guys are ready for 2015. i'd love to see ells come back but that's a pipe dream. I can't imagine them offering salty the qo, I think people here are getting a little sentimental. I admit I was during the post game last night.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 14:40:45 GMT -5
Here's one idea I've been toying with: if Napoli is re-signed, trade Mike Carp. He'll be cheap/young (first year of arbitration, 27 on opening day), you'd be selling high (.385 BABIP, 31.3% of his hits were doubles/triples compared to 24.6% career), and he doesn't really fit on the 2014 projected roster if you think the Red Sox need to sign an outfielder who can play RF/CF. He might have more trade value than Nava since he's three years younger and the 1B free agent crop is kind of bleh.
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Post by nexus on Oct 31, 2013 14:54:45 GMT -5
Similar to last year (and pretty much every year since 2001), I imagine the FO will make their annual push to acquire Joe Mauer where he would be inserted as the team's primary 1B through 2018. I see Napoli as more of a short term fallback.
I still believe Jimenez represents an upgrade over anyone not named Lester. If people are so willing to extend Lester after 50 shaky starts from end of 2011 through mid-2013, then what's wrong with signing the best SP in baseball the last 25 starts of 2013 to a reasonable multi-year offer?
The Sox will need to make up the 2 or 3 wins they'll likely lose from Ellsbury -> JBJ, but I otherwise do not see any areas where there's not already an opportunity either internally or available on the market.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,362
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Post by radiohix on Oct 31, 2013 15:22:15 GMT -5
Mike Napoli has the lowest contact rate with pitches in the zone in the Majors! That scares me a lot, I would let him go but keep thar high OBP- pitch grainding approach by shifting Nava to first base and platooning him with Hassan and signing Choo to play LF. The team will not lose offence this way but it obviously depends from the price asked by Boras.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 31, 2013 15:31:19 GMT -5
There is no way that this front office will make a move for Joe Mauer. It would go against every philosophy they have just subscribed to to win the WS.
I wouldn't trade Carp. he is probably undervalued and I'd bet even money he could match Napoli's numbers right now. He's cheap, plays 3 positions (1B , OF, DH) and most of all he's left handed. The team lacks power threats, he's one of the few they have.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 31, 2013 15:33:34 GMT -5
Sox will most likely do what they did last offseason... Not sign anyone with a QO attached....
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 31, 2013 15:56:36 GMT -5
This statement seems strange to me: Villarreal/ Workman/Wilson/Britton are also in the mix. An established RH reliever seems to be a priority. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1369/2013-offseason-red-sox-thread#ixzz2jKpKwj3KI would think that Workman, with his contract status, overall performance, his stuff, and specifically his post-season successful makes him a shoe-in for at least a bullpen spot next year. Given the year to year variability of relievers, I could see trying to stash Workman in AAA and taking on another right handed reliever, but I would think they would do that with Wilson and Britton and not Workman (yes, I know Britton is a lefty, just talking about bullpen building strategies in general).
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Post by elguapo on Oct 31, 2013 15:57:38 GMT -5
Sox will most likely do what they did last offseason... Not sign anyone with a QO attached.... Seems to apply even more this year, since we would stand to lose a somewhat better pick. But for the right signing, I think they would still do it. In theory, the loss of the pick (though different for each team) would be fairly factored into the price of the free agent, and the Sox would be subject to giving up a less valuable pick than most teams. In practice...
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Oct 31, 2013 16:00:28 GMT -5
"The Sox will need to make up the 2 or 3 wins they'll likely lose from Ellsbury -> JBJ, but I otherwise do not see any areas where there's not already an opportunity either internally or available on the market"
My math goes something like this Ells>jbj = drew<Zander
My greatest concern is starting pitching
Lester should perform about the same and Lackey should as well.
I think we can expect Doubrount to do better and perhaps make a "late blooming lefty leap"
The back end is ok as we'll but that leaves Buck.
He is not healthy now and it has been almost five months since he was.
Will he perform anything close to the best pitcher in baseball during the first half?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Oct 31, 2013 16:04:48 GMT -5
By the way, I'm sticking to topic in this thread, but I'm still celebrating and absolutely admire the 2013 sox about as much as I have any team in any sport ever.
That sounds like a good thread.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 16:05:26 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade Carp. he is probably undervalued and I'd bet even money he could match Napoli's numbers right now. He's cheap, plays 3 positions (1B , OF, DH) and most of all he's left handed. The team lacks power threats, he's one of the few they have. By advanced metrics, Carp is one of the worst defenders in the league in LF (career marks: -17.5 UZR/150, -20 DRS/1200, -13 TZ/1200, although in a smallish sample of 638 IP), an observation backed up by scouting reports. If those marks are accurate, he shouldn't play there on a more-than-emergency basis going forward, especially considering that the Red Sox have Gomes and Nava at the position already. So that makes him primarily a 1B, where his defensive numbers are much better (-3.3 UZR/150, 0 DRS/1200, -1 TZ/1200). The problem then becomes the impossibility of finding enough playing time for two players whose primary position is 1B on a roster with a full-time DH and two players who pretty much fit only at LF (Nava/Gomes). It's doable, but it means having a bench of Ross, Carp, Gomes, IF (with Bradley in CF and Victorino in RF). I'd much prefer the Red Sox have a fourth outfielder with some range, especially considering Victorino's injury-prone style of play. If they can swap Carp for a outfielder who fits that profile (say, Craig Gentry or Ryan Raburn or David DeJesus) and maybe a prospect, I'd be all over that. Of course, they could also just decide not to re-sign Napoli and go with Carp as the full-time 1B, which would resolve the roster crunch. But Carp is a huge regression candidate who was lucky on balls in play and extra base hit rate in 2013, and his projections (Steamer: .263/.330/.446) would have him as a significant step down from Napoli's projected line (.248/.349/.470 with much better defense). It's an option, and it would be a ballsy one, but I think this front office is risk-adverse enough (and has enough cash to spend) that they'd prefer to re-sign Napoli. And if they do that, I think Carp might be a useful little trade chip that is somewhat superfluous on the projected roster.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 31, 2013 16:28:48 GMT -5
My feelings toward this off-season: Dont worry about a thing, cause every little thing gonna be all right!
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Post by bjb406 on Oct 31, 2013 16:37:32 GMT -5
I don't think i want McCann. He seems like his bod is aalready breaking down and is regressing while Salty just had a career year. Considering the likely cost difference and the fact that McCann also costs a draft pick, I would much rather have keep Salty. I think he is the free agent that makes the most sense to hang onto.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 31, 2013 16:43:33 GMT -5
Of course, they could also just decide not to re-sign Napoli and go with Carp as the full-time 1B, which would resolve the roster crunch. But Carp is a huge regression candidate who was lucky on balls in play and extra base hit rate in 2013, and his projections (Steamer: .263/.330/.446) would have him as a significant step down from Napoli's projected line (.248/.349/.470 with much better defense). It's an option, and it would be a ballsy one, but I think this front office is risk-adverse enough (and has enough cash to spend) that they'd prefer to re-sign Napoli. And if they do that, I think Carp might be a useful little trade chip that is somewhat superfluous on the projected roster. And then in two years we'll get to complain about it when Mike Carp hits 28 home runs for the As while Napoli goes into full Mark Reynolds mode.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 17:13:05 GMT -5
And then in two years we'll get to complain about it when Mike Carp hits 28 home runs for the As while Napoli goes into full Mark Reynolds mode. Fair point, although Carp has never hit for that kind of power outside the PCL. Were I a dispassionate analyst, I would have preferred that the Red Sox had the winning bid on Abreu and moved on from Napoli, considering Napoli's risk profile. If the Red Sox had tighter payroll constraints, I would certainly prefer the Red Sox keep Carp and let Napoli walk for a pick. But with the draft pick attached to him and some sort of hometown discount, I think the Red Sox should be able to re-sign Napoli for two years and reasonable ($13-15m) AAV, in which case Carp is expendable and of considerably less value to the Red Sox than some other team who might overpay for a 1B with upside. If some team wants to go crazy and up the bidding on Napoli to three years and $45m or more (Rangers? Pirates?), though, I would hope the Red Sox walk away and move forward with Carp.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 31, 2013 20:33:51 GMT -5
I think next season is so important for WMB. I don't know what we have with this kid. Also with Cecchini waiting in the wings.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 31, 2013 20:42:30 GMT -5
JMEI,
There is a pile, pile, pile of risk giving Napoli a 2, even 3Y deal also. he just looks really lost at the plate for long stretches, can't seem to catch up to anything hard and it doesn't matter where it is thrown, even right down the middle.
He is another guy who would breathe a sigh of relief if he declines the Sox QO and the FO moves on from when some team offers him that 3-4Y deal in the 10-12m range.
It's that fear of him turning into a massive K machine with far more lengthy bad streaks. The team, to me would be better served looking at Morse on a budget sign, waiting for Duda, Davis to possibly get DFA'd if the Mets go that route and see what it would take for either, or a trade for some unknown at the point RH hitter to platoon with Carp.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 31, 2013 20:57:05 GMT -5
I agree with a lot of the commenters here that the bullpen is something we need to shore up. I think we let Bailey and Thornton go. I also agree with jclmontana that Brandon Workman should be a near lock for a spot in the bullpen based off his performance this season.
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