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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 25, 2014 22:33:59 GMT -5
Looking around at last years projections a little bit, and came across this from Keith Law:
Well evaluation isn't a science - a lot of us felt the same way about Victorino - and who knew about Napoli and his chops at first base? I hope this years signings turn out half as good.
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 25, 2014 23:19:11 GMT -5
Looking around at last years projections a little bit, and came across this from Keith Law: Well evaluation isn't a science - a lot of us felt the same way about Victorino - and who knew about Napoli and his chops at first base? I hope this years signings turn out half as good. I felt the same way about the Victorino contract at the time. It seems like defensive value is something that's so hard to measure, especially when considering a player in a new park w/ a different position (Victorino had only recorded 1 inning in RF since the 2008 season). Victorino put up a dWAR of 2.2 in 2013, double his previous high of 1.1 in 2008. I don't know if dWAR is the most accurate sabermetric, but it doesn't take an advanced metric to realize that the defensive value he provided in the RF acres was immense. I knew he was a good defender, but my god was Shane impressive out there last season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2014 13:32:14 GMT -5
Looking around at last years projections a little bit, and came across this from Keith Law: Well evaluation isn't a science - a lot of us felt the same way about Victorino - and who knew about Napoli and his chops at first base? I hope this years signings turn out half as good. I felt the same way about the Victorino contract at the time. It seems like defensive value is something that's so hard to measure, especially when considering a player in a new park w/ a different position (Victorino had only recorded 1 inning in RF since the 2008 season). Victorino put up a dWAR of 2.2 in 2013, double his previous high of 1.1 in 2008. I don't know if dWAR is the most accurate sabermetric, but it doesn't take an advanced metric to realize that the defensive value he provided in the RF acres was immense. I knew he was a good defender, but my god was Shane impressive out there last season. I thought the Victorino signing was terrible. I felt that he'd give them really good defense, but I figured they wouldn't get anything resembling corner OF offense. I figured his OBP would be around .310 and his slugging average might not make it to .400. His propensity for getting hit by pitches, especially when he dropped the switch-hitting, propelled his OBP to around .350, and he showed some impressive power hitting once he stopped batting left-handed. And his defense was superlative, and I'm old enough to remember Dwight Evans in RF. And of course, he had the best-timed memorable hits in the post-season. He actually had the game winning RBIs in all three clinching series. His infield single was the difference maker in the clincher against the Rays and who'll ever forget the grand slam against Detroit in ALCS Game 6 or the 3-run double in Game 6 of the World Series against St. Louis? Because of the all-out way he plays my guess is that we've probably already seen the best he has to offer. I can see him missing some games here and there and having his injuries hamper his numbers a bit. I would think he'd be a .270ish hitter with about a .700 OPS the rest of his contract. But I'd say given what he's already done the Sox have pretty much gotten their money's worth. Whatever he contributes from here on in is gravy. I never would have thought that giving him his 3 year $39 million deal would be such a bargain, but it went from being the "worst" deal of the winter to being one of the best given what he did last year. I was very impressed, to say the least.
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Post by elguapo on Feb 26, 2014 13:54:28 GMT -5
Because of the all-out way he plays my guess is that we've probably already seen the best he has to offer. I can see him missing some games here and there and having his injuries hamper his numbers a bit. I would think he'd be a .270ish hitter with about a .700 OPS the rest of his contract. Victorino had a relatively poor year in 2012, put up a ~.700 OPS, and was still worth 2.9 fWAR/2.6 bWAR. So even if he regresses the next two seasons, he's still likely to be very valuable in RF, never mind the roster value he has as a CF backup. All reasons I thought he was an obvious target last offseason and loved the signing.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Feb 26, 2014 14:11:21 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 27, 2014 3:56:10 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Feb 27, 2014 9:06:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox could still use a real backup SS in Pawtucket. Brock Holt is more of a 2B, and guys like Dent, Meneses, and Henry don't project to hit enough to be real major league options.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 27, 2014 14:20:03 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2014 15:22:30 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 27, 2014 16:03:15 GMT -5
Anyone 27 or younger is a "young" catcher in my mind. I don't often involve myself in trade stuff, but this one does look intriguing.
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Post by elguapo on Feb 27, 2014 16:12:43 GMT -5
Anyone 27 or younger who plays catcher well is a "young" catcher in my mind. Important distinction added.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 27, 2014 16:18:42 GMT -5
Anyone 27 or younger is a "young" catcher in my mind. I don't often involve myself in trade stuff, but this one does look intriguing. It's probably pointless if they want D'Arnaud.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 27, 2014 16:46:03 GMT -5
Anyone 27 or younger is a "young" catcher in my mind. I don't often involve myself in trade stuff, but this one does look intriguing. It's probably pointless if they want D'Arnaud. It appears that we have shortstops at least as good as those mentioned in the MLB rumors section above referenced. Perhaps D'Arnaud is a defensive whiz but Lavarnway is IMO poised to have a power return and he was not too shabby with the bat last year either. I thought that he was adequate in the field too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 28, 2014 18:18:17 GMT -5
Safe to say Lavarnway was no real trade value around the league. If he did, he wouldn't be here buried down the depth chart.
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 1, 2014 10:15:57 GMT -5
I'm locking this thread. Further discussion should go in the ST thread.
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