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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 11, 2014 6:28:20 GMT -5
Sorry guys, but this is driving me nuts.
It's BABIP. Batting Average on Balls in Play.
Thank you for indulging my OCD/psychoses. Please, continue.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 11, 2014 6:59:09 GMT -5
Sorry guys, but this is driving me nuts. It's BABIP. Batting Average on Balls in Play. Thank you for indulging my OCD/psychoses. Please, continue. LOL, you ruined the point of my post
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2014 9:05:42 GMT -5
If you mean BAPIP, Fangraphs has it for all minor league players. It's tough to figure out of they're too high because you don't really have an accurate average with such a short career. Acht - that is what I meant. These rented thumbs can't type for shut (see what I mean), Thanks!
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2014 9:06:54 GMT -5
I know this may have been posted before, so apologies if this is a re-ask, but anyone know what Brentz's BBIP was last year, or where I could find such numbers for minor league players? Love to know his, Cecchini's and Betts BBIP. Let me put in a plug for SoxProspects' stat pages, which are excellent and criminally underused. SP does a pretty great job collecting minor league stats, including some very interesting advanced/sabermetric ones that aren't really available elsewhere (it also collects more mundane stuff like BABIP, which is also available at Fangraphs and The Baseball Cube). For instance, for hitters, they have interesting stuff like percentage of strikeouts looking (Did You Know: Will Middlebrooks had 39.5% of his strikeout looking, the second-highest of any non-DSL/GCL player with 150+ PAs; he still has a long way to go on his plate discipline), contact rate (DYK: five highest contact rates, min. 200 PAs: Vic Acosta, Jhon Nunez, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Ryan Lavarnway), and GB/FB/LD/IFFB splits (DYK: one reason Coyle flashes so much power? He was second in the system in FB% at 47%. Jose Iglesias, on the other hand, plays to his strengths by hitting 60.8% GBs). They have similar stats for pitchers, which lets you peep cool stuff like Simon Mercedes' lofty 58.7 GB%, Henry Owens' fly-ball tendencies (just 39.4% GB), or Ty Buttrey's remarkable home run prevention (no home runs given up in 66 IP). Thanks for this. I need this. Will be on a phone meeting soon and need something to do while everyone drones on. Cheers!
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2014 9:57:10 GMT -5
Sorry guys, but this is driving me nuts. It's BABIP. Batting Average on Balls in Play. Thank you for indulging my OCD/psychoses. Please, continue. Dammit, I'm an idiot. And I edited all of my posts.
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Post by Steve Henley on Feb 11, 2014 18:45:29 GMT -5
This seems like a good strategy in theory and it's been tried before I am sure but in my experience it almost never works. Can you think of a veteran injury rehab pitcher who came back in mid year to boost a pennant contenders bullpen? I don't count Lackey because he had a full 16 months of rehab and a full spring training to recover. Is it reasonable to expect Bailey or Hanrahan to come back this year and be help a pennant contenders bullpen? If not then likely a minor league deal would be the best option. Off the top of my head, Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria in 2013.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 11, 2014 18:52:13 GMT -5
Forgetting the timing qualifiers, how'd that original Andrew Miller signing work out for us ? I suspect that before he's done, that single signing might pay for all the other signings combined.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 14, 2014 13:41:40 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 16, 2014 12:06:24 GMT -5
John Tomase ?@jtomase 3 min. Former Reds closer Francisco Cordero is in Red Sox camp, per a source, and will get a look as a reliever.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 16, 2014 12:10:23 GMT -5
John Tomase ?@jtomase 3 min. Former Reds closer Francisco Cordero is in Red Sox camp, per a source, and will get a look as a reliever.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 16, 2014 12:38:56 GMT -5
...and now we know why. Dempster was the prime candidate, but that won't be happening. Coming to you from the great northwest
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 16, 2014 15:40:07 GMT -5
I somehow was worried a year ago about whether Ben Cherington was going to be able to replace Theo. I am so impressed with the ability and effort Ben puts forth adding depth and always thinking way ahead. Will Cordero help this season? Probably not, but darn I'm glad we keep looking at adding and not getting satisfied. In 2011, Cordero was VERY successful once again. If he is close to that type of pitcher this year, Ben has done it again. At one time, Cordero was a strikeout per inning type of pitcher. He has become more of a pitcher in his last couple of seasons, but injury has derailed him over the last 2 years. Good move.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 17, 2014 9:22:16 GMT -5
@jonheymancbs: francisco cordero #redsox deal pays him $1M if in majors
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Feb 17, 2014 12:14:47 GMT -5
Just curious how far off I am. I have our payroll about 138 for our 25 man roster right now. AAV. Not actual salary. Am i in the ballpark? I know this doesn't count rest of 40 and other premiums. That's usually about 15m right?
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 18, 2014 14:41:18 GMT -5
Just curious how far off I am. I have our payroll about 138 for our 25 man roster right now. AAV. Not actual salary. Am i in the ballpark? I know this doesn't count rest of 40 and other premiums. That's usually about 15m right? gbb - My running total has the Red Sox at 169.14 AAV (with the 25-man payroll - including Cordero but excluding Sizemore - at 147.24 AAV): Pitchers (69.94(11) + 0.50(1min)) Hitters (74.80(9) + 2.00(4min)) plus 1.00 Thornton buyout, 3.90 Dodger payment & 17.00 benefits/40 man roster payments)
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 14:51:42 GMT -5
Just curious how far off I am. I have our payroll about 138 for our 25 man roster right now. AAV. Not actual salary. Am i in the ballpark? I know this doesn't count rest of 40 and other premiums. That's usually about 15m right? gbb - My running total has the Red Sox at 169.14 AAV (with the 25-man payroll - including Cordero but excluding Sizemore - at 147.24 AAV): Pitchers (69.94(11) + 0.50(1min)) Hitters (74.80(9) + 2.00(4min)) plus 1.00 Thornton buyout, 3.90 Dodger payment & 17.00 benefits/40 man roster payments) This guy keeps this spreadsheet up to date. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnqwIrDH6lrddDFpOHNxVWxLT3R1UkNxRlU1al9BTVE#gid=0
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Post by okin15 on Feb 19, 2014 10:50:23 GMT -5
Sorry if this has been answered, but why is Lester's AAV so far below his 2014 salary? I thought club options were usually calculated at cost (minus buyouts).
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Post by jmei on Feb 19, 2014 13:41:21 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 19, 2014 13:52:22 GMT -5
Sorry if this has been answered, but why is Lester's AAV so far below his 2014 salary? I thought club options were usually calculated at cost (minus buyouts). I'm not sure. I'll ask if I see him on OTM again.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 16:06:21 GMT -5
Sorry if this has been answered, but why is Lester's AAV so far below his 2014 salary? I thought club options were usually calculated at cost (minus buyouts). I talked to him and he has been going back and forth on it. The Speier article apparently was wrong. He changed it back to $13m.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 17:37:47 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 20, 2014 18:14:22 GMT -5
I got a question on this too. If Jon Lester signed this deal prior to 09 does the current or past CBA count as the deciding factor for the terms of the contract? And would that make a difference in the amount of Lux Tax AAV?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 21, 2014 0:19:20 GMT -5
I got a question on this too. If Jon Lester signed this deal prior to 09 does the current or past CBA count as the deciding factor for the terms of the contract? And would that make a difference in the amount of Lux Tax AAV? I'd guess that it does pertain to the current agreement, since the option is coming into force after the signing of the new CBA. But I'm no lawyer. Incidentally, Henry must have had his lawyers on this to get it right (with Lester in mind?), and it would take one to able to navigate the thicket of words in those clauses! I do understand arithmetic, though, and I built a spreadsheet that does all the calculations (and it even spits out Speier's numbers). Available on demand for anyone who wants to get it into Google docs and share. Certainly adds a few kinks to AAV calcs. There is logic to the clauses, I'd note. None of the money ever gets double-counted.
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Post by joshv02 on Feb 21, 2014 9:12:01 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure Alex is wrong and you guys are right - its $13mm. The rule he is citing in his article applies to club options starting in 2017 and beyond.
Technical stuff: He is citing to CBA sections XXIII(E)(5)(c)(ii)(A) ("Highest Guaranteed Year Value” shall ...") and XXIII(E)(5)(c)(ii)(B) ("If the Club Option Year Value exceeds 122.5%..."). But, those two subparts are part of subparagraph XXIII(E)(5)(c)(ii), which itself only applies to Club Option Years that extend into 2017 and beyond. The two subparts, also, also only apply to club options in 2017 and beyond. They don't apply to Lester's current contract.
One of the two subparts that Alex cites wouldn't apply anyway - XXIII(E)(5)(C)(ii)(A) is talking about the those terms of the "Guaranteed Year of the Contract," then goes on to talk about how you need to make sure that people don't rig them so that there are huge swings. However, earlier in the CBA -- XXIII(E)(5)(A), it clearly states that "Club Option Years shall not be considered 'Guaranteed Years'" as that phrase is used in the CBA. Thus, Club Options -- so long as they are prior to 2017 -- are not subject to the 127.5% constraint.
Further, the paragraph above the one Alex cites -- XXIII(e)(5)(c)(i) -- is unambiguous: "General Rule. If a Uniform Player's Contract covers one or more seasons that are Club Option Years, the Player's Salary for the championship seasons that are Club Option Years, if exercised, shall be the total of the Base Salary and any Bonuses included by operation of Section E(4) above." That means Club Options are base salary plus applicable performance bonuses for the Club Option period.
edit: Bah - the comments to Alex's article say the same thing.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 21, 2014 13:34:46 GMT -5
There's no way the Sox could be getting the full discount, because they weren't getting "charged" for the adjusted rate in the years before the new CBA.
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