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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 10, 2014 0:15:47 GMT -5
A Dempster partial salary dump for a reliever?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 10, 2014 9:49:05 GMT -5
tic.....tic.....tic.....tic
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 10, 2014 10:56:53 GMT -5
If I'm the Red Sox I'm picking up both Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan. Joel obviously has more upside than what he showed and Andrew has flashed dominance before going down with injuries. If either are healthy and pitching to their potential than I like the Sox odds more going into October. I think I'm the only person on here who doesn't have much faith in Koji heading into next season.
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Post by elguapo on Feb 10, 2014 10:59:44 GMT -5
am I the only one that thought hey had plenty of relief pitching like 3 relievers ago? That's kind of what everyone said last year when they signed Uehara ("We already have Bailey, Hanrahan, and Tazawa!"), and he turned out to be invaluable. Except the actual reaction to signing Uehara was, "Holy crap, I can't believe we got this guy, his numbers are insane!" Quite a bit different from taking a flier on a veteran or rehab/reclamation project. No downside to that approach, though, and I'd love to see Rich Hill, for example, have a healthy, productive season.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 11:01:19 GMT -5
The Red Sox probably have enough bullpen depth to survive losing their entire bullpen. Well that may be exaggerating a little...
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 11:45:58 GMT -5
That's kind of what everyone said last year when they signed Uehara ("We already have Bailey, Hanrahan, and Tazawa!"), and he turned out to be invaluable. Except the actual reaction to signing Uehara was, "Holy crap, I can't believe we got this guy, his numbers are insane!" Quite a bit different from taking a flier on a veteran or rehab/reclamation project. I didn't mean to imply that a lot of people didn't like the Uehara signing, but there were also a fair number of comments noting that it created somewhat a logjam in the bullpen. I'm remembering posts like this or this. By August, however, that depth chart looked a lot thinner, to the point where a relief arm was seen as a trade deadline priority (it ended up being filled internally by Workman being bumped out of the rotation). You always need more depth than you think you do at the onset of Spring Training, when you're looking at a clean depth chart and thinking optimistically about fringy arms. For a team like the Red Sox, an injured veteran arm is ideal in that (a) you can stick them on the 60-man DL until midseason and (b) they have some degree of upside. Hanrahan's Tommy John surgery is generally a less-risky procedure than Bailey's shoulder injury (he's also probably going to return sooner), but that just means Hanrahan is less likely to settle for a low salary or a minor-league deal for a team with a full bullpen depth chart.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 10, 2014 11:56:04 GMT -5
Ididn't mean to imply that a lot of people didn't like the Uehara signing, but there were also a fair number of comments noting that it created somewhat a logjam in the bullpen. I'm remembering posts like this or this. By August, however, that depth chart looked a lot thinner, to the point where a relief arm was seen as a trade deadline priority (it ended up being filled internally by Workman being bumped out of the rotation). You always need more depth than you think you do at the onset of Spring Training, when you're looking at a clean depth chart and thinking optimistically about fringy arms. For a team like the Red Sox, an injured veteran arm is ideal in that (a) you can stick them on the 60-man DL until midseason and (b) they have some degree of upside. Hanrahan's Tommy John surgery is generally a less-risky procedure than Bailey's shoulder injury (he's also probably going to return sooner), but that just means Hanrahan is less likely to settle for a low salary or a minor-league deal for a team with a full bullpen depth chart. In addition to TJ surgery Hanrahan also had his flexor tendon repaired and bone chips removed. Not saying that's riskier than shoulder surgery, but he's no slam dunk to return by any means.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 12:01:29 GMT -5
They have so much depth that they literally have no room on the roster for the guy who was pushing to take over the 8th inning setup man last year - Workman. Not until there are injuries or trades.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 12:40:10 GMT -5
They have so much depth that they literally have no room on the roster for the guy who was pushing to take over the 8th inning setup man last year - Workman. Not until there are injuries or trades. Injuries or poor performance or trades will happen. Again, the whole point of depth is that you need way, way more than the guys you have listed on the preseason 25-man roster to get through a long season. The Red Sox used 26 pitchers last year, including 19 who pitched more than 15 innings, and that's not really unusual (the average team uses around 23 pitchers a year). You want those depth guys to be as good as possible-- avoiding below-replacement-level (or even replacement-level) backups is a cheap and sneaky way of racking up wins. If the worst-case scenario is someone like Workman has to be bumped to Pawtucket to start the season, I'm not that concerned. Besides, as either the first- or second-in-line to receive starts if a starter gets injured, Workman might be better off staying stretched-out in AAA anyways.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 12:50:08 GMT -5
They have so much depth that they literally have no room on the roster for the guy who was pushing to take over the 8th inning setup man last year - Workman. Not until there are injuries or trades. Injuries or poor performance or trades will happen. Again, the whole point of depth is that you need way, way more than the guys you have listed on the preseason 25-man roster to get through a long season. The Red Sox used 26 pitchers last year, including 19 who pitched more than 15 innings, and that's not really unusual (the average team uses around 23 pitchers a year). You want those depth guys to be as good as possible-- avoiding below-replacement-level (or even replacement-level) backups is a cheap and sneaky way of racking up wins. If the worst-case scenario is someone like Workman has to be bumped to Pawtucket to start the season, I'm not that concerned. Besides, as either the first- or second-in-line to receive starts if a starter gets injured, Workman might be better off staying stretched-out in AAA anyways. I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I'm just saying they have so much depth, I can't see the need for more at this point. They are probably going to push some pitchers to AA that don't deserve it. A possible issue exists in that there may be no opportunities for pitchers who exceed expectations. What do they do with a guy like RDLR or Webster if they put it all together early? A good problem to have.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 10, 2014 13:42:21 GMT -5
This seems like a good strategy in theory and it's been tried before I am sure but in my experience it almost never works. Can you think of a veteran injury rehab pitcher who came back in mid year to boost a pennant contenders bullpen? I don't count Lackey because he had a full 16 months of rehab and a full spring training to recover.
Is it reasonable to expect Bailey or Hanrahan to come back this year and be help a pennant contenders bullpen? If not then likely a minor league deal would be the best option.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 10, 2014 14:30:49 GMT -5
I know this may have been posted before, so apologies if this is a re-ask, but anyone know what Brentz's BBIP was last year, or where I could find such numbers for minor league players? Love to know his, Cecchini's and Betts BBIP.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 14:38:25 GMT -5
If you mean BABIP, Fangraphs has it for all minor league players. It's tough to figure out of they're too high because you don't really have an accurate average with such a short career.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 14:41:37 GMT -5
I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I'm just saying they have so much depth, I can't see the need for more at this point. They are probably going to push some pitchers to AA that don't deserve it. A possible issue exists in that there may be no opportunities for pitchers who exceed expectations. What do they do with a guy like RDLR or Webster if they put it all together early? A good problem to have. I mean, the Red Sox don't need more depth, but if it's available for a nominal cost, why not get it? I don't think the depth chart is crowded enough that you're really hurting anyone-- remember that guys like Mijares and Hill will probably opt out by Opening Day if they don't get a major-league spot, and if you're signing an injured veteran, he's going to start the season on the DL anyways. The "what happens if RDLR/Webster pitch really well?" discussion is kind of a separate one (since they're presumably starters), but it's not like the answer is that difficult. If you think they're better than one of your current major league starters, bump him up. If not, keep him in AAA-- it's not like either has the track record or volume of AAA innings that they wouldn't be helped by getting more reps in Pawtucket (and keeping their service time low to boot). Can you think of a veteran injury rehab pitcher who came back in mid year to boost a pennant contenders bullpen? Brian Wilson was great for the Dodgers last year, though he was signed midseason and didn't rehab with the team. Francisco Rodriguez signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last year in April, came back in May, and pitched very well (the Brewers weren't a playoff contender, but traded him to the Orioles). The John Smoltz experiment worked OK with the Red Sox in 09 (his peripherals were much better than his ERA, and he subsequently pitched well with the Cardinals after being released). Yeah, the odds probably aren't great, but if you give him an incentive-laden minor-league deal, you're not on the hook for much if it doesn't work out.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 10, 2014 14:49:02 GMT -5
I know this may have been posted before, so apologies if this is a re-ask, but anyone know what Brentz's BBIP was last year, or where I could find such numbers for minor league players? Love to know his, Cecchini's and Betts BBIP. You should check out the stats pages on this site. There is a lot of good stuff there.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 15:06:53 GMT -5
I know this may have been posted before, so apologies if this is a re-ask, but anyone know what Brentz's BBIP was last year, or where I could find such numbers for minor league players? Love to know his, Cecchini's and Betts BBIP. Let me put in a plug for SoxProspects' stat pages, which are excellent and criminally underused. SP does a pretty great job collecting minor league stats, including some very interesting advanced/sabermetric ones that aren't really available elsewhere (it also collects more mundane stuff like BABIP, which is also available at Fangraphs and The Baseball Cube). For instance, for hitters, they have interesting stuff like percentage of strikeouts looking (Did You Know: Will Middlebrooks had 39.5% of his strikeout looking, the second-highest of any non-DSL/GCL player with 150+ PAs; he still has a long way to go on his plate discipline), contact rate (DYK: five highest contact rates, min. 200 PAs: Vic Acosta, Jhon Nunez, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez, Ryan Lavarnway), and GB/FB/LD/IFFB splits (DYK: one reason Coyle flashes so much power? He was second in the system in FB% at 47%. Jose Iglesias, on the other hand, plays to his strengths by hitting 60.8% GBs). They have similar stats for pitchers, which lets you peep cool stuff like Simon Mercedes' lofty 58.7 GB%, Henry Owens' fly-ball tendencies (just 39.4% GB), or Ty Buttrey's remarkable home run prevention (no home runs given up in 66 IP).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 15:24:51 GMT -5
Which stats determine whether BABIP is too high or low? Or whether an increase in BABIP is warranted and not due to luck? I know IFFB% is one of them. Where do I learn more about it?
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 15:42:07 GMT -5
Which stats determine whether BAPIP is too high or low? Or whether an increase in BAPIP is warranted and not due to luck? I know IFFB% is one of them. Where do I learn more about it? The Fangraphs library is great for basic stuff like this. Here's their article on BABIP, with links to additional reading.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 15:58:48 GMT -5
Thank you, but unfortunately nothing in there gives me what I'm looking for. I'm looking for something that indicates a sustainable increase in talent level for developing players in regards to a rising BABIP. An easy one is LD%'s going up.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 16:28:18 GMT -5
Thank you, but unfortunately nothing in there gives me what I'm looking for. I'm looking for something that indicates a sustainable increase in talent level for developing players in regards to a rising BAPIP. An easy one is LD%'s going up. I do not think it is possible to use minor league statistics to determine, with any real accuracy, whether a hitter's single-season BABIP reflects his true talent level or is just a blip that is due for regression. There are some factors which correlate with a true-talent ability to sustain high BABIPs at the major league level: speed, high line drive rates, high ground ball rates, low infield fly-ball rates. Unfortunately, the strongest of these correlations (LD%) requires 600 BIP to stabilize, which is quite a lot (depends on the player, but usually close to two years' worth of PAs). Add on the various factors which aggravate the application of major league sabermetric principles to minor league data (inconsistent competition in terms of both opposing pitchers and opposing defenses, worse ballparks, worse batted ball classifications, potential for true talent improvements, etc.), and I don't think you can makes strong conclusions based on minor league BABIPs alone.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 16:30:51 GMT -5
While I'm on the subject of minor league data, I only recently rediscovered minor league central, which has lots of interesting minor league stuff, too. It just takes a little more effort to find the Red Sox guys. minorleaguecentral.com/leaderboard
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 16:58:38 GMT -5
Thank you, but unfortunately nothing in there gives me what I'm looking for. I'm looking for something that indicates a sustainable increase in talent level for developing players in regards to a rising BABIP. An easy one is LD%'s going up. I do not think it is possible to use minor league statistics to determine, with any real accuracy, whether a hitter's single-season BABIP reflects his true talent level or is just a blip that is due for regression. There are some factors which correlate with a true-talent ability to sustain high BABIPs at the major league level: speed, high line drive rates, high ground ball rates, low infield fly-ball rates. Unfortunately, the strongest of these correlations (LD%) requires 600 BIP to stabilize, which is quite a lot (depends on the player, but usually close to two years' worth of PAs). Add on the various factors which aggravate the application of major league sabermetric principles to minor league data (inconsistent competition in terms of both opposing pitchers and opposing defenses, worse ballparks, worse batted ball classifications, potential for true talent improvements, etc.), and I don't think you can makes strong conclusions based on minor league BABIPs alone. What about a young player like Mike Carp, who's IFFB% dropped dramatically last year? Is his BABIP not as out of the ordinary as it might appear?
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2014 17:04:53 GMT -5
What about a young player like Mike Carp, who's IFFB% dropped dramatically last year? Is his BAPIP not as out of the ordinary as it might appear? IFFB rate stabilizes (i.e., correlates at a 0.7 level or higher) at roughly 500 PAs, which Carp fell well short of last year. So in that specific example, hard to say-- his 3.8% rate last year was significantly lower than his career rate (9.1%), but the sample size (243 PAs) was too small to draw any strong conclusions, at least from my POV. ADD: I'm nowhere near an expert on this stuff. Eric and others are likely far more well-read and mathematically literate than I am, so take everything with a grain of salt.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 10, 2014 17:16:38 GMT -5
Same here, that's why I asking about where I could find out more...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 10, 2014 17:19:40 GMT -5
If you mean BAPIP, Fangraphs has it for all minor league players. It's tough to figure out of they're too high because you don't really have an accurate average with such a short career. Relative to BAPIB, I don't think that's how I would put it.
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