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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 5, 2013 12:53:50 GMT -5
Brian: I don't really know what to think of JBJ. I tend to think of him as a normal minor leaguer - good scouting, good production (MLE of ~332/402), good up the middle defense. I'd probably not be surprised by 340/400, really, as it wasn't that far out of line with his MLE, but it may be a touch high as a mean projection (330/390?). I agree with nexus that a hit chart that shows 1/5 or 1/7 or 0/6 or whatever is not that useful, but the underlying message likely is right - don't have huge expectations for JBJ until we see more.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 5, 2013 13:04:28 GMT -5
I don't really think people are really giving either WMB or JBJ a fair shot yet. It takes time for these guys to adjust to MLB level. We're best off signing McCann, Napoli and someone like Young from Oakland to complement JBJ.
There is always the trading route to go. The FA market is not that great anyway.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2013 13:15:34 GMT -5
You may very well prove to be right with time, but I think it's kind of silly to make such an assertion based on the data points you're using. 1. Using 100 career MLB plate appearances is not really fair to JBJ or anyone reading the forum. 2. The idea he needs a platoon partner because of a pronounced slugging only split is kind of ridiculous (and for the record, he had identical splits in 2012). Using this logic (+/- ~.100 OPS), nearly everyone should have a platoon partner regardless of other skills - including Ellsbury. 3. Expectations are relative. I personally would be elated if he were to go .260/.340/.400 with plus baserunning instincts and plus-plus defense... at $400K. That's probably a 3.5 win player. I think it's fine to sign a cheap fallback, but I am willing to give JBJ's pure ability the benefit of the doubt until he falls on his face. And even if he does, his defense will be good enough where I doubt he would be the difference between a division title and 3rd place. Fair points on (2) and (3) (and I do think most MLB players should be platooned to the extent possible). As I mentioned before, I still think Bradley is an excellent prospect (top 40 in baseball?) and will be the starting center fielder for Boston for the foreseeable future. But I'm not just (or even primarily) judging Bradley on data from 100 PAs. It should be pretty unambiguous that Bradley has struggled to cover the inside of the plate. The scouting reports reflect it, the data reflects it (including his rising K rate in the high minors), and the eye test reflects it. It's very possible he shows up to Spring Training with a shortened swing and it ends up not being an issue. But any projection has to take that flaw into account, both by adjusting the median projection down a bit and by reflecting the fact that there's a real chance that he repeats his 2013 performance and significantly underproduces his MLEs. Better prospects have been tripped up by less. I'm happy to pencil him into the starting lineup (hitting 9th) at this juncture in the offseason, but the front office needs to have a viable backup option in place, and for me, Victorino in CF/Nava in RF is not it. Cherington has preached the importance of depth since he's been elevated to GM. Here is a prime example of where that mentality (as well as the resources of a big market team) imply the need to pick up a veteran outfielder (preferably a right-handed one who can also play center). Chris Young would be ideal, Franklin Gutierrez would come cheap, and there are a slew of right fielders that might work (Marlon Byrd, Jeff Baker, Casper Wells), with Victorino moving to center. Time for Ben to make it happen.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 5, 2013 13:28:12 GMT -5
2008 Ellsbury hit .280/.336/.394, and 2007 Crisp hit .268/.330/.382. I think Crisp's 2007 line is reasonable for JBJ next season, with the obvious caveat it's neither his floor or ceiling. I'm ready for the JBJ era to begin, but I'm not expecting him to replace Ellsbury's production next season. I'd be disappointed if the Red Sox let Ellsbury and Drew (and possibly Salty & Napoli) walk only to replace them with internal candidates. I'm confident that won't occur though, and the roster will be upgraded in other spots to help offset their losses.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 5, 2013 13:58:29 GMT -5
Question: Since the Sox pick last on the first round, and almost certainly will get at least one pick (assuming Ellsbury signs elsewhere), what do you think the chances are the Sox might give up that first round pick to sign one of the FAs who has received a QO?
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Post by ramireja on Nov 5, 2013 14:01:13 GMT -5
My offseason wish list:
1) Resign Napoli (or he accepts QO) 2) Sign Carlos Ruiz 3) Sign 5th outfielder/competition for JBJ: Franklin Gutierrez 4) Sign utility infielder type/competition for WMB or even X-man: Juan Uribe 5) Sign Masahiro Tanaka assuming he is viewed as 2/3 pitcher 6) Trade Peavy for highest possible return, ideally of the prospect nature and add one bullpen arm
Opening day lineup:
Nava (leadoff against RHP, otherwise Victorino shifts here) Pedroia Ortiz Bogaerts (I know I'm dreaming, but I at least hope he earns the clean up spot by say June, otherwise switch with Napoli) Napoli Victorino WMB Ruiz JBJ (has opportunity to move up in lineup as season progresses, heck maybe leadoff if he is looking like OBP>350 and seeing a lot of pitches)
Rotation:
Lester Buchholz Tanaka Lackey Doubront
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Post by jdb on Nov 5, 2013 14:22:04 GMT -5
I see a lot of the talking heads saying Napoli gets a multi year deal (3 years) from someone bc of the lack of RH power on the market. Curious what would everyone think about Aramis Ramirez? He has 1 year at 16 Million (4 mill buyout) and then a 14 million option. We could switch him over and net a pick with Napoli. Ramirez doesn't K nearly as much as Napoli and if we go forward with WMBs we might need that.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2013 14:22:18 GMT -5
Sox lost Gary D to the Angels (new 3b coach).
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 5, 2013 14:34:25 GMT -5
Question: Since the Sox pick last on the first round, and almost certainly will get at least one pick (assuming Ellsbury signs elsewhere), what do you think the chances are the Sox might give up that first round pick to sign one of the FAs who has received a QO? Yes they could. Right now I'd say there is more than a 50% chance Ellsbury and Drew leave so that would be two comp picks to add to the original first round pick. I think Napoli is most likely back but if not thats 3 comp picks on top of the original first round pick. The thing that is valuable about the Original 1st round pick is that it could rise as high as the early 20s depending on how many QF sign elsewhere. But comp picks are valuable as well since they are protected from compensation, meaning the team won't lose them if they sign multiple QFs. This is what I believe if there is anything wrong the more in the know can correct me. If all three guys leave I think there is a chance that the Red Sox sign 2 QFs because they would get 3 back of the 1st round picks while only losing a 1st and a 2nd. Even if Napoli is back, who as I said is the most likely due to the lack of viable options available, then you have 2 first round picks and while losing a 1st and a 2nd if you sign 2 QF, if they only sign 1 then they only lose the 1st round pick. What will be equally as important is what the market price will be for these QFs and which players they would target. That will dictate what they do more than not wanting to lose a pick. QF = Qualifying Free-agent
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 5, 2013 15:10:20 GMT -5
I really Really Really Really Really do not want McCann He will cost to much in terms of $$$ and years, and he is a huge [jerk] on the field like we saw this year
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 5, 2013 15:23:25 GMT -5
IF it's a deep draft then the Sox would want as many picks as possible to deepen the money pool.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 5, 2013 15:29:31 GMT -5
I really Really Really Really Really do not want McCann He will cost to much in terms of $$$ and years, and he is a huge [jerk] on the field like we saw this year I would agree (kind of) that McCann is not the right move, based more on performance - cost. If the Sox could only pick up 1 free agent/trade who would it be. In my eyes you need a catcher, it is not ideal to go forward with the OF situation or 1B, but you can live with Carp/Nava at 1st and outfield of Victorino, Bradley, Nava, Gomes, and Carp with Brentz called up, going forward with Ross + Lavarnway/Butler catching is unacceptable. The catching market leave a lot to be desired. I think McCann is a good player, but is being overvalued. I said this in another thread but, in my eyes he is the same offensive catcher as Salty. He is clearly better from the defensive side, but is he so much better defensively that you would give up a draft pick + more years at a higher AAV? I would like to see Sox go for Ruiz or Salty over McCann.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2013 15:32:37 GMT -5
I see a lot of the talking heads saying Napoli gets a multi year deal (3 years) from someone bc of the lack of RH power on the market. Curious what would everyone think about Aramis Ramirez? He has 1 year at 16 Million (4 mill buyout) and then a 14 million option. We could switch him over and net a pick with Napoli. Ramirez doesn't K nearly as much as Napoli and if we go forward with WMBs we might need that. That's not a bad idea. He is a pretty serious injury risk since he's 36 and missed a bunch of games with a knee injury last year, but the Red Sox have capable backups in Carp and Nava. He's a dead pull hitter that the Green Monster is going to help, and he projects to hit about as well as Napoli next year (Steamer projects Ramirez to hit .275/.343/.469 (124 wRC+) and Napoli to hit .248/.349/.469 (122 wRC+)). The real question is whether he can handle first base well enough defensively-- he's only ever played 3B in his professional career. But considering the fact that he'd also be fine depth in case Middlebrooks struggles at 3B, I'd be totally on board, assuming he doesn't require too much of a prospect haul in return. Hell, I might prefer him over Napoli if Napoli requires three years. Nice, creative find.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 5, 2013 15:39:06 GMT -5
Here are some of the reasons I do not have complete faith in Jackie Bradley Jr. to be an adequate full-time center fielder in 2014..... You may very well prove to be right with time, but I think it's kind of silly to make such an assertion based on the data points you're using. 1. Using 100 career MLB plate appearances is not really fair to JBJ or anyone reading the forum. 2. The idea he needs a platoon partner because of a pronounced slugging only split is kind of ridiculous (and for the record, he had identical splits in 2012). Using this logic (+/- ~.100 OPS), nearly everyone should have a platoon partner regardless of other skills - including Ellsbury. 3. Expectations are relative. I personally would be elated if he were to go .260/.340/.400 with plus baserunning instincts and plus-plus defense... at $400K. That's probably a 3.5 win player. I think it's fine to sign a cheap fallback, but I am willing to give JBJ's pure ability the benefit of the doubt until he falls on his face. And even if he does, his defense will be good enough where I doubt he would be the difference between a division title and 3rd place. Just to beat this into the ground, here's the chart reworked to show what his "average", and I use the term loosely given the near insignificance of the sample size, looks like from each side of the zone, and from the middle (click to expand): One more hit - one of those shots he fired off on inside pitches down to first base - and he would have been hitting .170 on that side. What could we have concluded from that, that he can't hit outside pitches? He looks damn near symmetric to me but I digress. There isn't enough of a sample size to conclude anything from this that I can see, at least anything significant.
As for his K rate: he was obviously too advanced for A+, and his numbers in AA and AAA are just about the same league to league. His ML numbers? They suffer from that small sample size and the fact that he barely had a chance to even learn the league's pitchers having been on a yo-yo to the minors just about the entire season. Hell he hasn't even seen half of them. One more thing to remember. As a high-OBP guy, he will simply carry more strikeouts, that's a near-given. Even in learning-to-crawl mode he still came up with an isolated discipline of 100 points. Again, however, that's a very small sample size, that's all you can say about 107 PAs.
I understand the idea that having a fall-back position is a good idea, but let's give the guy a chance, please. I sincerely hope they're willing to give him 500+ at-bats. If they do I believe he'll reward them with a good season.
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Post by p23w on Nov 5, 2013 16:01:49 GMT -5
I really Really Really Really Really do not want McCann He will cost to much in terms of $$$ and years, and he is a huge [jerk] on the field like we saw this year Don't know about the "jerk" part but I want nothing to do with McCann on the RS.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 5, 2013 16:18:39 GMT -5
That's not a bad idea. He is a pretty serious injury risk since he's 36 and missed a bunch of games with a knee injury last year, but the Red Sox have capable backups in Carp and Nava. He's a dead pull hitter that the Green Monster is going to help, and he projects to hit about as well as Napoli next year (Steamer projects Ramirez to hit .275/.343/.469 (124 wRC+) and Napoli to hit .248/.349/.469 (122 wRC+)). The real question is whether he can handle first base well enough defensively-- he's only ever played 3B in his professional career. But considering the fact that he'd also be fine depth in case Middlebrooks struggles at 3B, I'd be totally on board, assuming he doesn't require too much of a prospect haul in return. Hell, I might prefer him over Napoli if Napoli requires three years. Nice, creative find. You nailed it with the injury question mark. Have to imagine the Brewers would be willing to deal him on the cheap considering his age, injury concerns and their lack of being a contending team. Only problem is that they seem to really want Middlebrooks (based on the rumors of Krod from last year) and may be more interested in a Ramirez+cash for talent type of deal. If he's on the roster then it puts less pressure on the team to get a 'super sub' infielder to fill in incase Middlebrooks doesn't work out which should make the free agent pool a straight focus on OF/C.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 5, 2013 16:32:46 GMT -5
Question: Since the Sox pick last on the first round, and almost certainly will get at least one pick (assuming Ellsbury signs elsewhere), what do you think the chances are the Sox might give up that first round pick to sign one of the FAs who has received a QO? Good thought, just isn't really anyone out there who could really help them and would be a good sign for the value that would be worth it. McCann's name pops out of course, but does Cherrington really want to get into a bidding war over a 29YO catcher, whose numbers have been steadily slipping the last few seasons and has caught all those innings as it is? It would probably require a 4y deal at the least and maybe even a 5y one. McCann is relly the only guy tied to a QO who would really interest Cherrington, but he is going to be in high demand.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 5, 2013 16:46:52 GMT -5
What would be everyone's thoughts on a Granderson/Gomes platoon in Left while going cheap at first with Nava/Carp? It may not be better than resigning Napoli, but I am terrified that he may just fall off a cliff.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2013 16:52:42 GMT -5
What would be everyone's thoughts on a Granderson/Gomes platoon in Left while going cheap at first with Nava/Carp? It may not be better than resigning Napoli, but I am terrified that he may just fall off a cliff. I agree with the Napoli night terrors, but Nava and Carp don't make a natural platoon. The fact that Nava and Carp are both better hitters versus righties who can play 1B and LF make this somewhat of a difficult problem to resolve, which is why I think trading Carp (because his ratio of trade value:actual value is higher) might not be out of the question.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 5, 2013 17:20:36 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 5, 2013 17:54:18 GMT -5
It made sense that NY would go after him. They have holes at catcher, and DH, and they could use someone to alternate there and with Teixeira at first. McCann can fill in capably at all three. They've got some money coming off the books, but this does tighten up the budget for them if it happens. I think there will be others in pursuit also. Posters have mentioned Texas for one.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Nov 5, 2013 17:56:48 GMT -5
Good. I want nothing to do with McCann at 5+ years.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 5, 2013 18:45:31 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 5, 2013 19:26:20 GMT -5
timdierkes ?@timdierkes14s Hearing Salty and the Red Sox have now spoken about their interest in bringing him back. twitter.com/timdierkes
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 5, 2013 19:44:58 GMT -5
Excuse me if I'm missing something here, but why don't we see the name of Shin-Soo Choo being thrown around as a possibility to replace Jacoby? That glove is missing something (but this was really his first year of CF after being respectable as a corner OF for most of his time, so maybe some of it was due to playing a new position), but we could move him to LF if Bradley proves to be ready, and Choo is a much better hitter than Ellsbury, more durable and just 1 year older.
What am I missing?
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