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Your predictions: Top prospect in the system, mid-June 2014
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 7, 2013 11:12:59 GMT -5
Cecchini is the easiest answer because he's the top guy left … and often, the easiest answer is the right one. I suspect that Cecchini is going to start really strong next year, and he'll start to flash some power as the weather gets warmer. I think he's got elite prospect potential if he adds some power to his hit tool, and of all the top prospects, that seems like the question that can be answered the quickest.
I doubt Swihart will be able to climb that high that quickly, but if we're talking Sept 1, 2014, he may well be #1. Owens is a wildcard and could be #1 at either time, but I just don't think he's suddenly going to find command in the offseason or the first two months of next year.
And, while we shouldn't, we'll all be influenced by the off-season churn of rankings and speculation, probably.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 7, 2013 12:17:11 GMT -5
Webster or Ranaudo, the two pitching prospects best positioned to have excellent half-seasons at AAA and appear ready to step into the Major League rotation.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 7, 2013 12:23:32 GMT -5
I'm going to go way, way, way out on a limb and pick Vazquez.
It COULD happen if he gets off to a big offensive start in Pawtucket and forces himself into the catching discussion in Boston after a couple of months. I tend to be a little more position-centric in judging prospects, and catching is SO important that I think a top catching prospect should get a little more respect than a top LF prospect for example (and besides, with the dearth of top-flight catching, the bar to get a particular level rating on this site, either current or ceiling, is lower).
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Post by ramireja on Nov 7, 2013 12:44:43 GMT -5
I'm going with Webster.....the guy deserves to be No. 3 or 4 right now and I hope that his command will come around. Not to mention, his command is probably like to tail off later in the year so he might benefit from a hot start.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 7, 2013 13:54:31 GMT -5
I'll go with Cecchini. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him near the league lead in batting at Portland, drawing a ton of walks with a bunch of doubles or perhaps an increase in HRs knocking on the door by midseason to go to Pawtucket.
One poster characterized Cecchini as a one tool player, but that's not really accurate. Intelligence at the plate isn't considered a "tool", but it is and Cecchini knows the strike zone and can get on base at a prolific clip.
He also does more than hit just singles. Eventually those doubles might start flying out of the park, whether it's this year or next year.
I believe Cecchini will wind up the top prospect in 2014 with Owens second and Swihart a close third.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 7, 2013 14:20:59 GMT -5
Webster is still #3 overall on my personal list, maybe even #2. Against all baseball logic his ST performance is still seared into my mind. Not his stats, but he was throwing 99 and peppering the strike zone. If they trade a starter this offseason he will be the favorite for a call up, and it is possible he is sticking with the MLB club come June. It is more likely he is turns out a bust instead of hitting his ceiling, but if (and it's a big IF) he starts commanding his pitches consistently he has the highest potential of prospects not named Bogaerts. We've seen control in short spurts.
The possibility is remote, but what if Betts continues his ridiculous line into AA? Any possibility he could claim top prospect? I am asking, not predicting.
Denney is top 10 and M. Smith fringe top 20 by EOY.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 7, 2013 15:05:15 GMT -5
When I saw the topic, I immediately thought of Swihart. He is my favorite prospect and has come so far on both sides, but especially defensively. It may be a pipe dream, but it is my hope that he is the catcher in Boston by 2015 and has a great career behind the plate for us for 8 to 10 years. That said, if I had to pick the guy, it would be Cecchini. I think he is closer to the ML that we are giving him credit for. I will be surprised if he doesn't, at least, get a few bats in Boston next year. The 2nd coming of Wade Boggs? Probably not, but he may be close to that type of offensive player.....some day. I miss Boggsey.
One of those young rotation guys in Pawtucket will have a big breakout next year and hopefully by July take over one the spots in Fenway. That pitcher could vault over everyone.
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Post by Will Woodward on Nov 7, 2013 15:13:05 GMT -5
I agree with Hatfield that it will be Swihart. He can impact the game on both sides of the ball, and plays a premium position. His growth/development has been far quicker than I anticipated, likely spurred by his athleticism. I see him making another large jump this year.
Owens is the other one I could see, but I think this may be a season that sees him struggle for the first time in his professional career. His command and control could use a good amount of work as evidenced by his 4.5 bb/9 and the older and more advanced hitters will make him work harder. We saw this very thing this past season with Matt Barnes who saw his walk rate jump by over 1.5 per 9 innings, but maintained his strikeout potential. I see a similar path for Owens in the short term.
I agree with the other posters as well that the MLB ready/near ready depth is the best I can remember, and leaves them with a lot of options going forward. Some of those will be trades which could affect these rankings, but that is a topic for another thread...
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Post by brendan98 on Nov 7, 2013 15:28:01 GMT -5
#1 Cecchini - If he can maintain .400+ OBP, I don’t think it matters if his power #’s go up.
#2 Webster – The stuff is undeniable, but the control still needs to come around.
#3 Owens – Not as much stuff as Webster, similar control issue, youth has me thinking there is a better chance for control to come.
#4 Swihart – Expecting an adjustment period at AA, if he gets through it quickly could be in conversation for the top spot on this list by midseason, I think end of season is more likely however.
#5 - #8 – Barnes/De La Rosa/Ranaudo/Ball – any of these guys could easily become top pitcher in the system next year, but they are all behind Webster and Owens as of right now.
#9 Betts – putting Betts this low only because he had his 1st real success last season, if he proves that it wasn’t just catching lightning in a bottle, he will be higher. At this point, I can’t help but think Donnie Sadler type projection when I think of Betts, last season gives me hope for much more however.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2013 15:31:10 GMT -5
Trey Ball is my fantasy pick, because what the hell - I'm here to think positively.
More realistically, I'm bullish on Barnes in 2014. I was impressed with the way he made adjustments in-season. Him meeting resistance in Double-A shouldn't have been a surprise, but he showed that he was able to adjust the level. Perhaps more importantly, he didn't show the signs of fatigue that he did in 2012, pitching great in the second half. His next step is developing consistency with his curveball, which has definite plus potential when it's on. I think he can do that this offseason, which is why I think he can take that step forward. He was also hurt by a .357 BABIP in Double-A. Considering all the other things that he does well, pitching in front of what should be a tighter Pawtucket defense should really help his more team-dependent stats and highlight the things that he's doing well.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 7, 2013 16:19:16 GMT -5
If Ranaudo keeps pitching like he has been, why does no one give him the shot at being the number 1 prospect come mid-season? If we're basing this on trending players, he has certainly come a long way. Swihart has the most potential out of the catchers in the system, but if Vazquez can develop any sort of power this coming year to go along with terrific defense behind the dish then he has the outside possibility of vaulting up to first on the list. My fantasy would be for Ball to start flashing his potential and earn himself top 25-50 prospect in all of baseball, but that might be a year away. I think Webster will be the number one prospect heading into the season and may just supplant that position all year, unless he starts the season as the Red Sox number 5 starter and graduates off the list.
As far as a guy ranked near the bottom of the prospect list that I believe will leapfrog to the top 10 is going to be Myles Smith. Just my dark horse pick for breakout prospects.
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Post by 1mpaz10 on Nov 7, 2013 16:59:46 GMT -5
Swihart or Barnes (who's an early Comeback Player of the Season candidate). Ya sorry, but Barnes didn't have all that bad of a season. The ballot for comeback player would have to be really weak.
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Post by redsox1534 on Nov 7, 2013 17:05:00 GMT -5
Id Say Owens, Cecchini, Barnes, Swihart, Betts, Ball, Merrero, Brian Johnson, Stank, Brentz.
I Think Webster will graduate, Workman, Ranuadao will be dealt ( I hope, in a big deal for a stud hitter.)
How can every one forget about Brentz? Could graduate also. And Brian Johnson is slept on so much in this system and around baseball period. Mostly because there is so much talent at SP in this farm.
Big risers in top 20, Callahan, Ramos, Haley, Littrel, Mercedes, Myles Smith, Diaz, McGrath
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Post by taftreign on Nov 7, 2013 17:25:49 GMT -5
1. Owens - He doesn't need to improve vs last year to achieve this just maintain his level of performance at Portland. Any increased control makes this a no brainer. I disagree with you on this one. Owens is currently ranked high because he's succeeding despite his poor control. If he doesn't show improvement this season he'll just be "that guy with no control", a la Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton. Yes a need for control is needed to succeed at a higher level but if he returns to AA for the first half of 2014 and continues to post anything in the neighborhood to "no hit" stuff I think he will move to the one spot despite an inflated walk rate. I mean he was pitching at a tune of a 1.78 ERA with a 13.65 K/9 rate at AA with 30.3 innings of work. Yes his BB/9 of over 4 does not lead to sustainable success long term but his avoidance of hits still led him to a whip of 1.09. Ultimately its still about minimizing base runners however you do it. That is what I mean by maintaining his level of performance. Even with a slight regression which is likely as the league makes adjustments to him he can hold the 1 spot on upside at just 21. Where as if Cechinni just replicates his numbers we will be pleased but have questions about his power and whether he is a 3rd basemen or a RF. He also had a significant reduction in his SB total form the prior year so he isn't adding as much value on the bases. JBJr's higher 2 ranking had much to do with his defensive prowess which Cechinni does not have an added benefit of in addition to JBJr's high OBP. Swihart is much more likely to move ahead of Cechinni because of the defensive premium and evolving bat.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Nov 7, 2013 17:31:17 GMT -5
Cecchini or Owens is the safe pick. Wild pick: Brandon Workman is #11, and pitched late in the WS clincher. If they have a strong enough bullpen to let him start the year in the Pawsox rotation, he could make a huge leap. No one in the history of the site has jumped to #1 in June who was lower than #4 at the end of the season. Can you remember who went from #4 to #1, without looking at www.soxprospects.com/history.htm ?
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 7, 2013 17:33:44 GMT -5
Id Say Owens, Cecchini, Barnes, Swihart, Betts, Ball, Merrero, Brian Johnson, Stank, Brentz. I Think Webster will graduate, Workman, Ranuadao will be dealt ( I hope, in a big deal for a stud hitter.) How can every one forget about Brentz? Could graduate also. And Brian Johnson is slept on so much in this system and around baseball period. Mostly because there is so much talent at SP in this farm. Big risers in top 20, Callahan, Ramos, Haley, Littrel, Mercedes, Myles Smith, Diaz, McGrath I don't think anyone is forgetting about Brentz. There's just no way that he is the #1 Sox prospect by June 2014. I think he'll be dealt if possible.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 7, 2013 20:46:39 GMT -5
Trey Ball is my fantasy pick, because what the hell - I'm here to think positively. I'm fully aware this isn't a prediction but it got me thinking. Wouldn't it probably be a terrible thing for the system if Ball were number 1 at this time? It'd be virtually impossible for him to get there with him dominating and several guys falling on their faces, right? Is there any way he could get there that fast and us be feeling good about the few months the system has had? More a testament to its depth right now...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 7, 2013 20:57:31 GMT -5
Cecchini or Owens is the safe pick. Wild pick: Brandon Workman is #11, and pitched late in the WS clincher. If they have a strong enough bullpen to let him start the year in the Pawsox rotation, he could make a huge leap. No one in the history of the site has jumped to #1 in June who was lower than #4 at the end of the season. Can you remember who went from #4 to #1, without looking at www.soxprospects.com/history.htm ? I know, but that's only because I wrote him up for tomorrow's final Top 40 in Review. FWIW, he was #3 by the time the season started because we graduated Kalish.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 7, 2013 21:08:35 GMT -5
Trey Ball is my fantasy pick, because what the hell - I'm here to think positively. I'm fully aware this isn't a prediction but it got me thinking. Wouldn't it probably be a terrible thing for the system if Ball were number 1 at this time? It'd be virtually impossible for him to get there with him dominating and several guys falling on their faces, right? Is there any way he could get there that fast and us be feeling good about the few months the system has had? More a testament to its depth right now... I was about to jump in and disagree, because hey, he's the number 7 overall pick, right? But yeah, you make a good point. What'd probably need to happen: 1) Ball shoves in Greenville (obviously) 2) Bogaerts and Bradley graduate (neither could slump enough for Ball to pass them by midseason) 3) Owens has issues with walks and can't get away with it at the Double-A level, has no redeeming non-stat scouting report improvements from 2012 (in other words, the flaws that have been pointed out get exposed - bad luck on BIP leading to only a middling line wouldn't be enough) 4) Cecchini begins season in Portland again and hits for zero power (see Owens parenthetical) -or- begins season in Pawtucket and goes completely in the tank (he'd get more of a leash if he's dealing w/ new level and would have to be awful) 5) Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes are, at best, middling and/or traded; Workman same and/or graduates (they're at higher levels, but I could see Ball being impressive enough to pass them if they were only "solid") 6) Swihart is thoroughly unimpressive in Portland (same "new level" pass that Cecchini gets if he's in PAW) 7) Betts doesn't light the world on fire the way he did this year (a "good" start would still leave door open enough) So yeah, things would have to collapse. And I agree that it's because the system is in such great shape.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2013 22:42:06 GMT -5
There's really no likely scenario where Ball ends up #1 at miseason, and the slight outside possibility probably involves Cecchini getting traded. But beyond that it's not impossible that: Bogaerts, Bradley, Workman and Webster all graduate; one of Barnes/Ranaudo is dealt; the other is middling at Triple-A; Owens continues to struggle with his control; and Swihart is good but not great, all while Ball rips up the SAL as a 19-yo with pretty awesome physical tools.
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Post by pasadenasox on Nov 7, 2013 22:43:28 GMT -5
Most likely Cecchini. I agree with those who also mention Barnes as having a shot.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 7, 2013 23:00:41 GMT -5
Owens. He's going to continue to K minor leaguers by the truckload, Bogaerts and Bradley graduate, and Cecchini slows down just a bit.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 7, 2013 23:40:31 GMT -5
If Swihart continues to improve defensively it may well put him at a higher level than Cechinni will ever be. Defense is important too, especially at catcher. We possibly still haven't made the mental adjustment that Swihart may end up to be better defensively than he will ever be offensively. And his offense is fine. It's just that he may be an all star defensively. If it were year end next year I might well have given him my vote also.
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Post by tizzle on Nov 8, 2013 2:29:46 GMT -5
Cecchini, with Barnes on his tail.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 8, 2013 9:23:24 GMT -5
I really hope you guys are right on Swithart. I think I'm just down on catchers the way I am "defensive short stop" prospects. They are both extremely over-rated in my opinion. I understand its because the positions are thin so having a really good one puts your team at a great advantage. The issue is, it's thin so we tend to over-rate guys on the hope they reach their potential. The fact it's so thin should tell us these prospects have a lower chance to actually get there, either due to skill set (SS) or position (catcher). Iglesias is a prime example of this. It's not difficult to find a great defensive SS, but it's hard to get one who can also hit. We say the threshold is low and it is, but it's low for a reason. Even if Jose hits .250 (stretch), it's going to be with no walks and no extra base power. My guess is Detroit talks themselves into that being ok, until other holes start to appear offensively. Pretty soon you have Brendan Ryan.
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